Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 29-12-2017

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 1.7% in December 2017. Compared with November 2017, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.6%. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that, on an annual average, the inflation rate is expected to stand at 1.8% in 2017.

In December 2017, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.6% year on year and 0.8% on November 2017. On an annual average, the harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to be up 1.7% in 2017 as compared with a year earlier.

• The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 4.9% in November 2017, after 5.0% in October 2017.

• The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 9.1% in November, from 9.4% in October.

• The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 2.8% in November, compared with 2.7% in October.

• The annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increased to 3.1% in November, from 2.9% in October.

The estimated annual inflation of the CPI in December 2017 is 1.2%, according to the advance indicator prepared by the INE. This indicator provides an advance of the CPI which, if confirmed, would imply decrease of five tenths in its annual rate, since in the month of November this variation was 1.7%. This behavior highlights the rise in the prices of fuels (diesel oil and gasoline), lower than that registered in 2016. For its part, the annual variation of the leading index of the HICP is placed in December in 1.3%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2045 (4716)

$1.2026 (3479)

$1.2010 (4178)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1951

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1892 (4572)

$1.1847 (4620)

$1.1799 (4662)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 95633 contracts (according to data from December, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (5590);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3566 (3040)

$1.3533 (4878)

$1.3494 (2478)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3466

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3420 (1972)

$1.3385 (2404)

$1.3343 (2084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 33515 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4878);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 34147 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2803);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.