Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 29-07-2015

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0977 -0,77%

GBP/USD $1,5598 -0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,9675 +0,53%

USD/JPY Y123,97 +0,31%

EUR/JPY Y136,10 -0,44%

GBP/JPY Y193,38 +0,22%

AUD/USD $0,7289 -0,70%

NZD/USD $0,6643 -1,05%

USD/CAD C$1,2952 +0,21%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter II -0.8% -4%

01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter II -0.2% 1.5%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m June 2.4% -0.8%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator July 89.7 90.5

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. July 6.4% 6.4%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change July -1 -5

09:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index July 103.5 103.3

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Finally) July -5.6 -7.1

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator July 0.1 0.15

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence July -3.4 -3.4

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 11.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) July -0.1% 0.2%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) July 0.3% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims July 2207 2211

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II -2% 1.9%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II 0.8% 1.6%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 255 270

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.2% 2.6%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence July 7 5

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate June 3.3% 3.3%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y June 4.8% 1.7%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y July 0.3%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y July 0.1% 0.0%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y June 0.5% 0.3%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y June 0.1% 0.0%

The dollar rose modestly against the euro, updating yesterday's high and nearer to the level of $ 1.1000. Experts say that volatility has been increasing in anticipation of the verdict of the Federal Reserve. As expected, the Central Bank will not now make adjustments to the current monetary policy, but traders will be interested in the text of the statements contained therein and hints of further steps of the Central Bank. The Fed chief Janet Yellen earlier this month said that the central bank may raise interest rates in September if the economy continues to improve the alleged rate.

A little influenced by a report that showed that after five consecutive months of growth of the sale of unfinished housing fell in June, but remained close to the level in May, which was the highest in nine years. Modest gains in the Northeast and West were offset by a large decline in the Midwest and South. The index of pending home sales (PHSI), the forecast indicator based on contracts signed, fell 1.8 percent to 110.3 in June, but still 8.2 percent higher than in June 2014 (101.9). Despite the decline in the last month, the index finished third in 2015 and is currently growing at annualized for ten consecutive months. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR, said that although the deal pending home sales fell in June, the overall trend in recent months support steady pace of home sales this summer. "The demand for housing in the secondary market remained strong last month, as low reserves in many markets have reduced choice and pushed prices above the level of comfort for some buyers," he said. "The demand exceeds the sales, but the determining factor will be that decided whether or not some of these buyers to wait even longer until the improved offer and to slow the rise in prices."

The Canadian dollar rose significantly against the US currency, updating the maximum of 16 July, which was due to the rise in oil prices following the publication of data on oil reserves in the United States. US Department of Energy reported that in the week ended July 24, commercial oil reserves in the country (excluding the strategic reserve), decreased by 4.2 million barrels to 459.7 million barrels. Analysts expected reduction of stocks for the week by 1 million barrels per day. Oil production in the US for the week decreased by 1.51%, or 145,000 barrels per day - up to 9.413 million bpd. Oil reserves in the country's largest terminal in Cushing fell by 0.2 million barrels - up to 57.7 million bpd. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.4 million barrels and reached 215.9 million barrels, while analysts had expected an increase of 0.512 million bpd. Distillate stocks rose 2.6 million barrels to 144.1 million barrels. Analysts had forecast an increase of 1,502 million barrels per day. Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude stocks last week fell by 1.9 million barrels against the forecast of a reduction of 0.2 million bpd.

The pound fell sharply against the dollar, having lost almost all previously earned a position that is probably due to profit-taking before the announcement of the outcome of the meeting FOMC. Investors have focused on the upcoming Wednesday the Fed's statement on monetary policy, expecting to get any indication as possible rise in interest rates.

Previously, support for the pound had data on mortgage lending in the UK. The Bank of England said that net mortgage lending in June rose by 2.6 billion pounds (4.1 billion US dollars), after rising by 2.4 billion pounds in May. The growth rate in June was the most significant since July 2008. The number of mortgages approved in June was 66,582, while in the past six months, banks and building societies approved an average of 62 971 in credit per month. The improvement in the housing market should help to accelerate the country's economic growth this year, although growth in lending can resume fears that British citizens are taking on too much debt, especially when the rate of growth in house prices exceeds the rate of increase of income.

EUR/USD 1.0970 (EUR911m) 1.1000 (705m) 1.1040-50 (600m) 1.1080 (361m) 1.1080 (361m) 1.1100 (583m)

USD/CAD 1.2910 (260m) 1.3050 (320m)

AUD/USD 0.7250-60 (AUD 300m) 0.7350-60 (370m)

NZD/USD 0.6670-80 (NZD 500m)

EUR/GBP 0.7080-90 (EUR 300m)

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1050 1.1065 1.1080-85 1.1100 1.1120 1.1160 1.1185 1.1200 1.1220 1.1250

Bids 1.1020-25 1.1000 1.0980 1.0965 1.0940 1.0900 1.0880 1.0860 1.0820-25 1.0800

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5620-25 1.5640-50 1.5680 1.5700-10 1.5725-30 1.5750

Bids 1.5580-85 1.5565 1.5550 1.5520-25 1.5500 1.5485 1.5450 1.5425-30 1.5400

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7100 0.7125 0.7150-55 0.7180-85 0.7225-30 0.7260 0.7285 0.7300

Bids 0.7065 0.7050 0.7030 0.7000 0.6975-80 0.6950

EUR/JPY

Offers 136.80 137.00 137.30 137.50 137.80 138.00 138.50

Bids 136.25 136.00 135.80 135.50 135.00 134.85 134.50

USD/JPY

Offers 123.80-85 124.00 124.25-30 124.50 124.75 125.00

Bids 123.45-50 123.25-30 123.00 122.80 122.50-60 122.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7330 0.7350 0.7385 0.7400 0.7420-25 0.7450

Bids 0.7300 0.7280 0.7265 0.7250 0.7230 0.7200 0.7180 0.7150

EUR/USD: $1.1000(E417mn), $1.1000(E417mn), $1.1030-40(E717mn)

USD/JPY: Y122.50($445mn), Y123.00 ($250mn), Y123.40($498mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7300(A$531mn), $0.7325(A$485mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2940(210mn), C$1.3000($495mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey August 10.1 10.1 10.1

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.62 Revised From 1.73 2.5 1.68

06:45 France Consumer confidence July 94 94 93

The euro slightly advanced against the dollar ahead of the result of the Fed meeting. Hints on a rate increase in the near future would attract those investors searching for a higher yield to the dollar. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg believe that this meeting might be the last one with no important statements. This time the Federal Reserve will not update its macroeconomic forecasts and Fed Chair Yellen will not hold a conference. Thus meeting minutes will be the only source of information about policymakers' mood and intentions.

The yen advanced amid positive retail sales data. The corresponding index rose by 0.9% in June beating analysts' expectations for a 0.5% rise. Sales rose by 0.3% during the same period last year. This is the third straight monthly increase. Total retail sales rose despite a 10.7% drop in sales of fuel. Cars, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics led the gains.

EUR/USD: the pair rose to $1.1085 in Asian trade

USD/JPY: the pair fell to Y123.30

GBP/USD: the pair traded around $1.5605-15

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals June 64.83 Revised From 64.43 66

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln June 1057 Revised From 1001 1100

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln June 3.5 Revised From 3.1

11:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications July 0.1%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) June 0.9% 1.0%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July 2.468 -1

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m June 0.0% 2.5%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) June -2.1% 0.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) June -3.9%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)07

$1.1197 (2447)

$1.1138 (2483)

$1.1096 (1121)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1051

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0984 (3349)

$1.0934 (4231)

$1.0867 (5648)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 54983 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (4765);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 62496 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (5873);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 28

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5901 (1168)

$1.5802 (1695)

$1.5705 (1189)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5605

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5495 (1469)

$1.5397 (1366)

$1.5299 (1361)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 22063 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5750 (3211);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 22691 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5250 (2066);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.