Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 31-07-2015

UPOZORENJE: Materijal koji se nalazi u odeljku novosti i analitika se obnavlja automatski, pa ponovno učitavanje stranice može usporiti proces pojave novog materijala. Sa tim u vezi, predlažemo da stranicu sa novostima držite stalno otvorenom, kako biste nove materijala primili bez zastoja.

Filtriraj po valutnom paru

31.07.2015

18:20

American focus: the dollar fell against most major currencies

The euro rose substantially against the dollar, rising briefly above $ 1.1100, which was caused by the publication of weak data on labor costs in the United States. Later, the pair once again dropped below $ 1.1000, the cause of which was the correction of the positions at the end of the month.

Experts said that the latest data intensified fears of a postponement of the first Fed rate hike. Recall, the Labor Department reported that the results of the 2nd quarter of wage growth in the US slowed down as much as possible since the beginning of the study, while experts predicted that improvements in the labor market have a positive impact on the dynamics of wages. The growth in the 2nd quarter by 0.2% was the lowest since 1982. In the 1st quarter figure stood at around 0.7%. Economists had expected an increase of 0.6%. Fed monitors data on wage growth closer to raising interest rates to a level close to zero, at which they are to the end of 2008. Accelerating wage growth will signal that the labor market is finally approached the health of six years after the recession, and could push the Fed to the earlier increase in interest rates to avoid overheating the economy. However, the recent slowdown indicates that the labor market is maintained below capacity, which could cause the Fed to wait before raising interest rates.

The Canadian dollar dropped significantly against the US dollar came under pressure on GDP Statistics Canada. Recall, the Canadian economy shrank for the fifth month in a row in May, under pressure from weak results in industrial output, oil and gas extraction, and wholesale trade. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced in the economy, fell 0.2% to 1.64 trillion Canadian dollars ($ 1.26 trillion.) In May from the previous month, Statistics Canada reported. The results follow the decrease in GDP in April by 0.1%. Market expectations were that Canada's GDP will remain unchanged in May. GDP data is likely to support the debate whether Canada has entered into a recession - which is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction - during the first half of 2015. The Canadian economy shrank by 0.6% year on year in the first quarter, and the Bank of Canada earlier this month cut its forecast for the second quarter to a contraction of 0.5%.

The yen retreated from session highs against the dollar, approaching to the level of Y124.00, as investors began to shift attention to US employment data, which will be presented next Friday. Also had little impact on the statistics potrebdoveriyu USA and Chicago PMI. Recall, the final results of the studies submitted by Thomson-Reuters and the Institute of Michigan, revealed in July US consumers feel more pessimistic about the economy than last month. According to published data, in July consumer sentiment index fell to 93.1 points compared to the final reading for June at the level of 96.1 points and a preliminary value of 93.3 points in July. According to experts the average index had reached 94 points.

Meanwhile, the Association of Managers in Chicago said the PMI index rose sharply at the beginning of the third quarter, exceeding the level at 50 and reaching the highest level since January 2015. According to the data, the July Purchasing Managers' Index rose to Chicago 5.3 points to 54.7 points. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 50.5 points. While all of the components that make up the index increased in July, three of them (pending orders, shipments and employment) remained in the territory of the reduction.

14:00

U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, July 93.1 (forecast 94)

13:45

U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , July 54.7 (forecast 50.5)

13:31

Option expiries for today's 10:00 ET NY cut

EUR/USD: $1.0850(E301mn), $1.1000(E2.47bn)

USD/JPY: Y123.50($678mn), Y124.00($486mn), Y125.00($1.6bn)

AUD/USD: $0.7250(A$886mn;Barrier expiry A$1bn), $0.7275-80(A$500mn)

NZD/USD: $0.6650(NZ$389mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2900($310mn), C$1.2925-30($700mn), C$1.3000(405mn)

12:31

U.S.: Employment Cost Index, Quarter II 0.2%

12:30

Canada: GDP (m/m) , May -0.2% (forecast 0.0%)

12:00

Orders AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0975-80 1.1000 1.1020 1.1050 1.1065 1.1080-85 1.1100 1.1120 1.1160 1.1185 1.1200

Bids 1.0925-30 1.0900 1.0880 1.0860 1.0820-25 1.0800 1.0780 1.0750 1.0720

GBP/USD

Offers 1.5600 1.5620 1.5635 1.5650 1.5680 1.5700-10 (stops above) 1.5725-30 1.5750

Bids 1.5575-80 1.5565 1.5550 1.5520-25 1.5500 1.5485 1.5450 1.5425-30 1.5400

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7030 0.7050 0.7080 0.7100 0.7125 0.7150-55 0.7180-85 0.7200

Bids 0.7000 0.6975-80 0.6950 0.6930 0.6900 0.6885 0.6865 0.6850

EUR/JPY

Offers 136.30 136.50 136.80 137.00 137.30 137.50 137.80 138.00

Bids 135.60 135.30 135.00 134.85 134.50 134.30 134.00

USD/JPY

Offers 124.25-30 124.50 124.75 125.00 125.30 125.50

Bids 124.00 123.75-80 1 123.45-50 123.25-30 123.00

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7300 0.7330 0.7350 0.7385 0.7400 0.7420-25 0.7450

Bids 0.7250 0.7230 0.7200 0.7180 0.7150

10:31

Russia: Bank of Russia intrest rate desision, 11.00% (forecast 11.00%)

09:20

Option expiries for today's 10:00 ET NY cut

EUR/USD: $1.0850(E301mn), $1.1000(E2.47bn)

USD/JPY: Y123.50($678mn), Y124.00($486mn), Y125.00($1.6bn)

AUD/USD: $0.7250(A$886mn;Barrier expiry A$1bn), $0.7275-80(A$500mn)

NZD/USD: $0.6650(NZ$389mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2900($310mn), C$1.2925-30($700mn), C$1.3000(405mn)

09:01

Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, July 1% (forecast 0.8%)

09:00

Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, July 0.2% (forecast 0.2%)

09:00

Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , June 11.1% (forecast 11.1%)

06:41

Foreign exchange market. Asian session: the yen advanced EURGBP EURJPY EURUSD NZDUSD USDJPY

Economic calendar (GMT0):

Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July -2.3 -15.3

01:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter II 0.5% 0.3%

01:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter II 0.7% 1.1%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June 6.2% 5.9%

05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y June -7.4% 15.4%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June 5.8% 2.9% 16.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted June 0.4% Revised From 0.5% 0.3% -2.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y June -1.0% Revised From -0.4% 5.1%

The euro advanced slightly in Asian trade, although the International Monetary Fund refused to provide new loans for Greece because of its debts. Probably the IMF will not discuss a third bailout program for Greece before the beginning of 2016. This questions the fund's participation in the EU's aid program. Earlier several German politicians said that Bundestag will not even vote on the €86 billion program without the IMF taking part in it.

The yen rose on favorable inflation data. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported that the consumer price index excluding fresh food rose by 0.1% in June vs 0.0% expected.

The New Zealand dollar fell amid weak business confidence data from ANZ. The corresponding index posted -15.3 in July compared to -2.3 reported earlier. The bank noted that dairy prices remained low and that the situation might get worse.

EUR/USD: the pair rose to $1.0950 in Asian trade

USD/JPY: the pair fell to Y123.90

GBP/USD: the pair traded around $1.5590-10

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 11.1% 11.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) July 0.8% 0.8%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) July 0.2% 0.2%

11:00 Russia Bank of Russia intrest rate desision 11.50% 11.00%

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) May -0.1% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter II 0.7%

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index July 49.4 50.5

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) July 96.1 94

06:07

Options levels on friday, July 31, 2015: EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)07

$1.1120 (2542)

$1.1046 (2572)

$1.0991 (819)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0931

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0878 (4305)

$1.0833 (6315)

$1.0803 (3765)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 53754 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (3640);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 67224 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (6650);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.25 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 30

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5901 (1262)

$1.5802 (1785)

$1.5704 (1242)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5603

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5496 (1480)

$1.5398 (1333)

$1.5299 (1357)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 22428 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5750 (3260);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 23162 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5250 (2283);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.