Forex-novosti i prognoze od 01-03-2012

The dollar depreciated against the majority of its most-traded counterparts as reports showed manufacturing from China to the U.S. expanded in February, increasing speculation that global growth is on the mend. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed today. Readings above 50 signal growth. A separate report showed U.S. personal spending increased 0.2 percent in January, less than the 0.4 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. grew at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, fueled by manufacturers, the Fed said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey. The growth is being echoed in other parts of the world, spurring investor confidence in the global economic recovery. China’s purchasing managers’ index rose for a third month in February, increasing to 51 from 50.5 in January, the statistics bureau and logistics federation said.

The euro fell for a fifth day versus the pound, the longest such streak since November 2010, after a second round of loans from the European Central Bank yesterday failed to bring down Portuguese bond yields. The yields on five-year Portuguese notes rose for an eighth day, touching 17.5 percent, the highest level since Feb. 7. Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The decision of the committee was unanimous, ISDA said on its website.

European stocks rose, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s best start to a year since 1998, as Spanish and French borrowing costs dropped and a report showed initial jobless claims fell to a four-year low in the U.S.

Spain and France sold 12.5 billion euros ($16.7 billion) of bonds as yesterday’s European Central Bank loans to banks helped spur demand for debt. The rate on Italy’s two-year notes dropped below 2 percent for the first time since October 2010.

In the U.S., a Labor Department report showed initial jobless claims fell last week to a level matching a four-year low, dropping to 351,000. That’s the lowest since March 2008 and fewer than the average economist forecast of 355,000.

China’s manufacturing improved for a third straight month in February, signaling that the world’s second-biggest economy is maintaining momentum amid the euro area’s crisis.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all of the 18 western-European markets, except Norway. Germany’s DAX Index rose 1.3 percent. France’s CAC 40 Index gained 1.4 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 1 percent.

Veolia Environnement jumped 15 percent to 10.55 euros, the largest gain on the Stoxx 600, after saying it’s in exclusive talks to sell Transdev, its mass-transit unit.

Cable & Wireless Worldwide Plc soared 15 percent to 31.98 pence after Tata Communications Ltd. said it may make a cash offer for the company and may decide on a transaction by the end of the month.

WPP Plc gained 3 percent to 827.5 pence after the world’s largest advertising agency reported that revenue rose to 10 billion pounds ($16 billion) in 2011. Analysts had estimated sales of 9.96 billion pounds. WPP predicted that revenue will grow 4 percent in 2012, faster than the industry average, because of its position in emerging markets.

PSA Peugeot Citroen slid 3.9 percent to 14.47 euros after Moody’s Investors Service cut the carmaker’s credit rating to junk. Peugeot announced a broad alliance with General Motors Co. yesterday that will include joint purchasing and vehicle development in an effort to revitalize their European operations.

• recovery is not complete, hsg lagging, mfg has been leading

• recession has not affected US growth potential

• banks, reiterates that exposure to EU debt is limited and impact from problems will come from other areas

• Fed has no official position on prin reductions

• some moves in commodities are inevitable, overall have had some good econ news

• hsg demand will return when econ recovers

• some moves in commodities are inevitable, overall have had some good econ news

• hsg demand will return when econ recovers

U.S. stocks advanced, following the longest monthly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in a year, as financial shares rallied and after government data showed that jobless claims declined to a four-year low.
Benchmark gauges rose as the number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to a level matching a four-year low, more evidence the labor market is healing. Stocks briefly pared gains as manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in February at a slower pace than forecast as orders cooled.
Dow 12,996.30 +44.23 +0.34%, Nasdaq 2,990.90 +24.01 +0.81%, S&P 500 1,373.76 +8.08 +0.59%
JPMorgan increased 2.9 percent, the most in the Dow, to $40.37. Bank of America climbed 2.3 percent to $8.15.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumped 4 percent to $119.71. The fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets agreed to buy Ariel Holdings Ltd.’s Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance businesses to expand property and casualty coverage.
Gap surged 7.9 percent to $25.20. Sales climbed 4 percent, beating the average projection for a 1.4 percent drop from analysts surveyed by Retail Metrics Inc. Unseasonably warm weather boosted purchases of spring merchandise.
Kroger gained 2.1 percent to $24.28 after forecasting 2012 earnings of at least $2.28 a share. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated $2.23.
Sotheby’s dropped 9.9 percent to $35.44. The publicly traded auctioneer of fine arts and collectibles said fourth- quarter profit fell 26 percent as sales slid.

Oil climbed a second day as the U.S. increased pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program and improving American economic data bolstered optimism that fuel demand will grow.

Futures in New York rose as much as 0.8 percent as U.S. officials escalated warnings that the nation may join Israel in attacking Iran. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to a level matching a four-year low. The Federal Reserve said yesterday that the housing market has shown improvement.

Crude oil for April delivery rose to $108.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have advanced 8 percent in the past year.

Brent oil for April settlement climbed $1.93, or 1.6 percent, to $124.59 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices rise as buyers returned to the physical market after a 5% reduction in price the day before.

On Wednesday, the spot price fell by 5% after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no hint of the third round of quantitative easing, which was a key factor supporting prices.

On the physical markets in Asia jewelers, traders and investors have shown a violent activity after the price reduction of almost $ 100.

Stocks of the world's largest gold ETF-secured fund SPDR Gold Trust rose on Wednesday, more than 9 tons, the biggest increase since January.

March futures of gold on COMEX today rose to 1724.6 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1410 (high of June’2008)

Resistance 2:1400 (psychological level)

Resistance 1:1377 (Feb 29 high)

Current price: 1371,25

Support 1:1358 (session low, Feb 29 low)

Support 2:1352/1 (Feb 23 and 27 lows, МА (20) for D1)

Support 3:1334 (Feb 16 low)

Goldman says, that construction spending data and vehicle sales reported later today could also affect their tracking estimate.

EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.2900/1.3500

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y80.25, Y80.00

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0800

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.5800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

EUR/JPY Y110.00

U.S. stock futures rose before a report that may show manufacturing grew.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,707.37 -15.87 -0.16%

Hang Seng 21,387.96 -292.12 -1.35%

Shanghai Composite 2,426.11 -2.37 -0.10%

FTSE  5,915.49 +43.98 +0.75%

CAC  3,485.22 +32.77 +0.95%

DAX 6,916.23 +60.15 +0.88%

Crude oil: $107.78 (+0,7%).

Gold: $1712.10 (+0,1%).

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3500, $1.3440/50, $1.3420, $1.3400, $1.3380

Bids $1.3300, $1.3295/90, $1.3270/65

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0950, $1.0900, $1.0850/60, $1.0830/35, $1.0800/10

Bids $1.0710/00, $1.0685/80, $1.0655/50, $1.0625/20

Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May) Resistance 2: Y81.70 (Feb 27 high) Resistance 1: Y81.40 (session high) Current price: Y81.03 Support 1:Y80.80 (session low) Support 2:Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 and 28 lows) Support 3:Y79.50 (Feb 21 lows, 38,2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y81.70)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 high) Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (Feb 20-21 low, high of american session on Feb 23) Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (session high) Current price: Chf0.9039 Support 1: Chf0.9020/10 (earlier resistance, Feb 27 high, session low) Support 2: Chf0.8930/20 (Nov 8-9 lows, Feb 27 and 29 lows) Support 3: Chf0.8900 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (Nov 21 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6030/40 (psychological level)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990/00 (psychological level, Feb 29 high)

Current price: $1.5949

Support 1 : $1.5890 (session low, support line from Feb 23)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5650-$ 1,5990)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (area of Feb 27-28 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (Feb 24-27 and 29 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.3390 (Feb 28 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3360 (session high and Feb 24 low)

Current price: $1.3322

Support 1 : $1.3300/90 (session low, 38.2 % FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480)

Support 2 : $1.3230 (50,0 % FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480, Feb 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.3210 (Feb 22 low)

EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.2900/1.3500

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y80.25, Y80.00

AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0800

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.5800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

EUR/JPY Y110.00

Asian stocks fell, with the region’s benchmark index headed for its first decline in three days, as commodity producers retreated on lower metal prices and Chinese developers dropped after home prices declined.

Nikkei 225 9,707.37 -15.87 -0.16%

Hang Seng 21,387.96 -292.12 -1.35%

S&P/ASX 200 4,255.55 -43.00 -1.00%

Shanghai Composite 2,426.11 -2.37 -0.10%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, lost 1.5 percent in Sydney, the biggest drag on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., a state-owned builder, lost 5.5 percent in Hong Kong.

Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd. slumped 8.6 percent after the developer said it would sell shares at a discount.

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m January -1.0% +2.1% +0.9%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y January -24.5% -13.7% -14.6%

00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure IV quarter +12.3% +3.9% -0.3%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI February 50.5 50.9 51.0

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) February 48.8 49.7 49.6

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y February +6.0% +3.5%

The dollar fell against most major peers before a report forecast to show a U.S. manufacturing index rose for a fourth month. The U.S. economy expanded at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, fueled by manufacturers, including automakers, the Fed said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey.

Higher-yielding currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained after Japanese companies’ capital spending jumped by the most in almost five years in the fourth quarter, brightening the outlook for global growth.

China’s purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.0 last month from 50.5 in January, the nation’s statistics bureau and logistics federation said in a statement today. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and New Zealand’s second- largest export destination.

The Australian dollar pared an earlier gain versus the yen after the Bureau of Statistics said the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments gained 0.9 percent in January from the previous month when they dropped a revised 0.8 percent. The result compares with the median forecast of a 2 percent rise in a separate Bloomberg poll.

Another report showed business investment in Australia unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three-month period.

Demand for the euro was limited before European Union leaders meet in Brussels today to discuss the region’s debt crisis. The EU said “serious action” is needed to revive economic growth across the region, according to an issues paper prepared for the two-day summit. As EU leaders grapple with how to overhaul and jump-start their economies, the Brussels meeting will focus on growth and postpone discussion of Europe’s financial-crisis firewall. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker backed combining the EU’s temporary rescue fund with a permanent bailout facility that comes online later this year, after German objections derailed a decision this week.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair restored after yesterday's falling.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair advanced, remaining above $1.59.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair decreased, after yesterday's growth.

UK data starts early on Thursday with the 0700GMT release of the latest Nationwide House Price index. UK data also sees the Markit/CIPS  Manufacturing PMI at 0928GMT. At 1000GMT, Bank of England MPC member David Miles delivers a speech at a  ro.manchester Business Conference. This morning also sees the release of the final Manufacturing PMI figures from core-Europe, including France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the main EMU data at 0858GMT. EMU data at 1000GMT includes flash HICP, which is expected to come in at 2.6%, while at the same time January unemployment is expected to remain at 10.4%. The scheduled US data calendar starts at 1330GMT when initial jobless claims. PCE is expected to also rise 0.4% in the month, as retail sales rose 0.4% and were up 0.7% excluding motor vehicle sales. The core PCE price index is forecast to post another 0.2% rise. At 1500GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeats his prepared semi-nnual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee, followed by Q&A. At 1730GMT, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to the Atlanta Fed's Banking Industry Outlook Conference. Late US data includes the 2100GMT release of M2 Money Supply. Later on, into 0300GMT Friday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams discusses the

economy on a panel at the Hawaii CFA Economic Forecast Dinner.

Yesterday the dollar rallied against the euro and yen after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reduced speculation the central bank will provide more monetary stimulus. The dollar erased earlier losses after Bernanke said there are “positive developments” in the labor market, adding that “the job market remains far from normal.” Bernanke said that “in light of the somewhat different signals received recently from the labor market than from indicators of final demand and production, however, it will be especially important to evaluate incoming information to assess the underlying pace of economic recovery.”

The euro weakened earlier after the European Central Bank awarded 529.5 billion euros ($712 billion) in a second round of three-year loans to banks, increasing the supply of euros. The 17-nation euro declined versus all but one of its 16 major counterparts as the ECB auction of three-year loans surpassed the 470 billion euros forecast by economists. The Frankfurt-based central bank said it will lend the funds to 800 financial institutions. In its first three-year refinancing operation in December, 523 banks borrowed 489 billion euros.

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark index set to enter a bull market, after U.S. consumer confidence beat expectations, and as factory output in Japan and South Korea gained, boosting optimism global demand will grow.

Resistance 3: Y82.25 (Aug 4 high)

Resistance 2: Y81.70 (Feb 27 high)

Resistance 1: Y81.40 (session high)

The current price: Y80.92

Support 1: Y80.80 (Feb 28 low)

Support 2: Y80.25 (Feb 29 low)

Support 3: Y79.85 (Feb 23 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9115 (Feb 23 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (high of the American session on Feb 23)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9050 (Feb 29 high)

The current price: Chf0.9026

Support 1: Chf0.9005 (Feb 23 low)

Support 2: Chf0.8975 (low of the American session on Feb 27)

Support 3: Chf0.8935 (Nov 29 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6090 (Nov 14 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6050 (Nov 2 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990 (Nov 10 high)

The current price: $1.5928

Support 1 : $1.5900 (Feb 29 low)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (low of the Asian session on Feb 27)

Support 3 : $1.5800/10 (area of Feb 27-28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (Feb 29 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3420 (high of the American session on Feb 27)

Resistance 1 : $1.3380 (Feb 23 high)

The current price: $1.3353

Support 1 : $1.3315 (Feb 29 low)

Support 2 : $1.3270 (low of the American session on Feb 23)

Support 3 : $1.3230 (Feb 23 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $106.87 -0.20 -0.19%

Gold $1,697.30 -14.00 -0.82%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,723.24 +0.72 +0.01%

Hang Seng 21,680.08 +111.35 +0.52%

S&P/ASX 200 4,298.55 +35.81 +0.84%

Shanghai Composite 2,428.49 -23.37 -0.95%

FTSE 100 5,871.51 -56.40 -0.95%

CAC 40 3,452.45 -1.54 -0.04%

DAX 6,856.08 -31.55 -0.46%

Dow 12,952.07 -53.05 -0.41%

Nasdaq 2,966.89 -19.87 -0.67%

S&P 500 1,365.68 -6.50 -0.47%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3324 -1,01%

GBP/USD $1,5914 +0,10%

USD/CHF Chf0,9045 +1,01%

USD/JPY Y81,14 +0,85%

EUR/JPY Y108,11 -0,15%

GBP/JPY Y129,12 +0,94%

AUD/USD $1,0730 -0,33%

NZD/USD $0,8340 -0,44%

USD/CAD C$0,9900 -0,55%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m January -1.0% +2.1%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y January -24.5% -13.7%

00:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure IV quarter +12.3% +3.9%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI February 50.5 50.9

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) February 48.8 49.7

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y February +6.0%

06:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) IV quarter +0.2% -0.1%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index February -0.2% +0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y February +0.6% +0.3%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI February 47.3 48.6

08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) February 48.5 50.2

08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) February 51.0 50.1

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) February 48.8 49.0

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing February 52.1 51.9

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) February +2.7% +2.6%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate January 10.4% 10.4%

13:30 Canada Current Account, bln IV quarter -12.1 -9.4

13:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index January -2.4% 0.0%

13:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m January -0.7% +0.4%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 24.02.2012 351 349

13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m January +0.5% +0.5%

13:30 U.S. Personal spending January 0.0% +0.4%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m January +0.2% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y January +1.8%

15:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0

15:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing February 54.1 54.6

15:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m January +1.5% +1.1%

15:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks 0

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks 0

18:47 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y February -0.3% -0.2%

23:30 Japan Health-Sports Day January +0.5% -0.7%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate January 4.6% 4.5%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y January -0.2% -0.1%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y January -0.1% -0.2%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y February -0.3% -0.2%