Forex-novosti i prognoze od 02-03-2012

The dollar rose to a nine-month high against the yen before U.S. reports next week forecast to show growth in the world’s biggest economy is gathering pace while deflation persists in Japan. The dollar gained against most major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cast doubt about a third round of asset purchases.

The yen dropped against most of its major counterparts as Japan’s consumer prices decreased, fanning speculation the central bank will expand monetary easing.

The euro declined a third day since the European Central Bank’s bank-loan program as a German report showed retail sales unexpectedly fell. The euro weakened versus the dollar after Germany’s statistics bureau said retail sales adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings fell 1.6 percent in January. Economists forecast a gain of 0.5 percent, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Euro-area retail sales dropped for a third month in January, the European Union’s statistics office will say on March 5, another Bloomberg survey showed. The ECB will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low 1 percent on March 8, according to a separate survey. European leaders agreed this week to provide capital faster for the planned permanent bailout fund in a concession to international pressure to strengthen the currency bloc’s defenses against the debt crisis.

Sterling rose for a sixth day against the euro, the longest stretch since November 2010, as an industry report showed an index for U.K. construction rose in February to an 11-month high, boosting speculation the nation will avoid a recession. The pound gained 0.2 percent to 83.28 pence per euro after reaching 83.14, the strongest level since Feb. 20.

European stocks rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index capping a weekly gain, as policy makers declared a turning point in the sovereign-debt crisis and shifted their focus to pulling the region out of a recession. In a two-day summit that began yesterday in Brussels, euro- area leaders agreed to provide capital faster for the planned permanent bailout fund in a concession to international pressure to strengthen the region’s defenses against the debt crisis. Today, the leaders committed to a pro-growth agenda even as they signed a deficit-control treaty at the 17th high-level meeting since the outbreak of the crisis.

Spain raised its budget deficit target for 2012, breaching its commitment with its European partners. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced a new deficit goal of 5.8 percent of gross domestic product compared with the 4.4 percent target previously agreed with the European Union.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 added less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX declined 0.3 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 0.3 percent.

International Power, an operator of electricity plants on five continents, advanced 4.4 percent to 365.5 pence. Electricite de France SA, Europe’s biggest power generator, rallied 3.3 percent to 19.60 euros. Suez Environnement Co., the region’s second-biggest water company, climbed 3.5 percent to 11.80 euros.

Barclays added 2.2 percent to 256.75 pence. The U.K.’s third-largest lender by assets took 8.2 billion euros of three- year loans from the European Central Bank to provide “funding stability” for its units in Spain and Portugal.

Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest bank, gained 1.2 percent to 1.96 euros. BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest lender, rose 1.5 percent to 37.92 euros.

Belgacom dropped 4.9 percent to 22.89 euros. The Belgian telephone company said full-year net income fell to 756 million euros from 1.27 billion euros for the prior year.

U.S. stocks retreated amid concern that a rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an almost four-year high has outpaced global growth prospects.

The euro weakened as Spain raised its budget-deficit target for 2012 and German retail sales unexpectedly declined. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced a new deficit goal of 5.8 percent of gross domestic product compared with the 4.4 percent target previously agreed with the European Union.

Dow 12,952.45 -27.85 -0.21%, Nasdaq 2,976.99 -11.98 -0.40%, S&P 500 1,369.25 -4.84 -0.35%

A gauge of energy shares had the biggest decline among 10 groups in the S&P 500, falling 1.1 percent. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) slumped 0.7 percent to $86.23. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. dropped 3.6 percent to $82.72.

Big Lots slid 4 percent to $42.73 after reporting fourth- quarter sales of $1.63 billion. On average, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated $1.66 billion.

Travelers Cos. lost 1.1 percent to $57.78. The only insurer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was downgraded to “equal weight” at Morgan Stanley. That means the stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the average for its industry peers over the next 12 to 18 months. The previous rating was “overweight.”

Overstock.com Inc. slumped 13 percent to $5.99. The online discount retailer reported fourth-quarter sales of $314.1 million, trailing the average estimate of $377.5 million from two analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Yelp climbed 62 percent to $24.33. The San Francisco-based company raised $107.3 million in the IPO, pricing the shares at $15 each, according to a statement yesterday. The company earlier offered them for $12 to $14.

Oil fell for the first time in three days after Saudi Arabia denied a report of a pipeline explosion in its Eastern province and as the dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months.

Oil is poised for the first weekly decline since Feb. 3 after a Saudi official said there was no sabotage at oil facilities in the Qatif area. Prices rose above $110 a barrel yesterday after Iran’s Press TV said an explosion hit pipelines in the area. The dollar gained against the euro before U.S. reports next week that are forecast to show growth in the world’s biggest economy.

Oil for April delivery dropped to $106.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose to $110.55 yesterday after floor trading closed on the Press TV report. Prices are down 2.1 percent this week.

Brent oil for April settlement slipped $1.57, or 1.2 percent, to $124.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It surged to $128.40 yesterday, the highest price since July 2008.

• World economic growth is expected to slow to 3.25% in 2012

• The U.S. should maintain a stimulating monetary policy, to agree to a fiscal plan

• The U.S. needs a policy that will correct the situation on the labor and housing markets

• In Europe, the expected mild recession in 2012

• Europe should support growth, to soften its monetary policy

• The ECB should not hesitate in using unconventional monetary measures

• Europe needs a single bank body

• European banks need to create capital reserves without reducing growth in lending

• China's economy cools, the GDP in 2012 is expected to reach 8.25% against 9.25% in 2011

Gold prices are driven down by the strong dollar and by the end of the week may show the largest decline since mid-December.

The dollar rose to a maximum of nine months against the yen and rose against the euro, putting pressure on gold, the price of which usually varies inversely proportional to the dollar.

Reflecting investors' gold reserves of the world's largest secured precious metals ETF fund exceeded 70.76 million ounces, reaching an absolute maximum.

Isolation of the European Central Bank loans to low-cost 500 billion euros this week will support gold in the long run, as will help to keep interest rates in the eurozone, analysts say. On Friday, gold prices in euros rose by 0.4 percent to EUR 1.294,23 per ounce, but by the end of the week may be reduced by 1.8 percent.

March futures of gold on COMEX today fell to 1705.2 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1410 (high of June’2008)

Resistance 2:1400 (psychological level)

Resistance 1:1377 (Feb  29, Mar 1 and session high)

Current price: 1372,25

Support 1:1368 (session low)

Support 2:1358 (Feb 29 and Mar  1 lows)

Support 3:1352/1 (Feb 23 and 27 lows)

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y81.15, Y81.30, Y81.60, Y82.10

AUD/USD $1.0800, $1.0710

GBP/USD $1.6000

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

U.S. stock-index futures dropped, pared this week’s advance.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 9,777.03 +69.66 +0.72%

Hang Seng21,562.26 +174.30 +0.81%

Shanghai Composite 2,460.69 +34.58 +1.43%

FTSE 5,918.55 -12.70 -0.21%

CAC 3,501.38 +1.65 +0.05%

DAX 6,935.87 -5.90 -0.08%

Crude oil: $108.28 (-0,5%).

Gold: $1712.10 (-0,6%).

Alcoa (AA) was initiated with a Neutral at Nomura.

Boeing (BA) was initiated with a Buy and a target price of $90 at Maxim Group.

Travelers (TRV) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Data:

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted January -1.4% +0.5% -1.6%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y January -0.9% +0.2% +1.6%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM January -0.2% +0.6% +0.7%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) January +4.3% +3.6% +3.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350/60, $1.3260/65, $1.3240/45

Bids $1.3210/00, $1.3185/80, $1.3155/50, $1.3140/35

EUR/JPY

Offers Y110.00, Y109.75/80, Y109.45/50, Y109.20/25, Y108.75/80, Y108.15/20

Bids Y107.50/45, Y107.25/20, Y106.85/80

Resistance 3: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.20 (high of May)

Resistance 1: Y81.70 (session high, Feb 27 high)

Current price: Y81.54

Support 1:Y80.80 (Mar 1 low)

Support 2:Y80.00/90 (Feb  23-24 and 28 lows)

Support 3:Y79.50 (Feb  21 low, 38,2 % FIBO Y76.00-Y81.70)

Комментарии: на Н1 сформировалась дивергенция между ценой и индикатором MACD, что указывает на рост вероятности коррекции.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9210 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9180 (Feb 20 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 highs)

Current price: Chf0.9122

Support 1: Chf0.9070 (Mar 1 high)

Support 2: Chf0.9045 (session low)

Support 3: Chf0.9020/10 (earlier resistance, Feb 27 high, Мак 1 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5975/90 (area of  Feb 29 and Mar 1 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5940 (intraday high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5900 (Mar 1 low)

Current price: $1.5860

Support 1 : $1.5850 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5830 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (area of Feb  27-28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3390 (Feb 28 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3360 (Mar 1 high and Feb 24 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 low)

Current price: $1.3235

Support 1 : $1.3230 (50,0 % FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480, Feb 23 low, session low)

Support 2 : $1.3170 (61.8% FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480)

Support 3 : $1.3110 (Feb 17 low)

Комментарии: на Н1 формируется дивергенция между ценой и индикатором MACD, что указывает на рост вероятности коррекции.

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y81.15, Y81.30, Y81.60, Y82.10

AUD/USD $1.0800, $1.0710

GBP/USD $1.6000

EUR/CHF Chf1.2050

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index set to extend its longest weekly winning streak on record, after U.S. jobless claims fell and European leaders agreed to speed up providing a permanent bailout fund for the region’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 9,777.03 +69.66 +0.72%

Hang Seng 21,562.26 +174.30 +0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,273.1 +17.56 +0.41%

Shanghai Composite 2,460.69 +34.58 +1.43%

James Hardie Industries NV, which makes most of its revenue selling home siding in the U.S., increased 1.4 percent in Sydney.

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank by market value, gained 1.3 percent in Hong Kong.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s No. 1 automaker, climbed 1.9 percent in Seoul after U.S. sales advanced last month.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., Japan’s third-largest shipping line by sales, jumped 7.6 percent in Tokyo as container freight rates on Asia to Europe routes rose.

Yesterday the dollar depreciated against the majority of its most-traded counterparts as reports showed manufacturing from China to the U.S. expanded in February, increasing speculation that global growth is on the mend. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s data showed. Readings above 50 signal growth. A separate report showed U.S. personal spending increased 0.2 percent in January, less than the 0.4 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. grew at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, fueled by manufacturers, the Fed said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey. The growth is being echoed in other parts of the world, spurring investor confidence in the global economic recovery. China’s purchasing managers’ index rose for a third month in February, increasing to 51 from 50.5 in January, the statistics bureau and logistics federation said.

The euro fell for a fifth day versus the pound, the longest such streak since November 2010, after a second round of loans from the European Central Bank yesterday failed to bring down Portuguese bond yields. The yields on five-year Portuguese notes rose for an eighth day, touching 17.5 percent, the highest level since Feb. 7. Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The decision of the committee was unanimous, ISDA said on its website.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair was under pressure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair rose, closed day above $1.5950.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair gain consolidated nearby Y81.00.

European data for Friday starts at 0700GMT with German retail sales data, while at the same time, the UK BDO High Street Sales Tracker

data is released. EMU data at 1000GMT includes January PPI. UK data also includes the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI at 0930GMT along with Q4 Construction New Orders data.

Asian stocks fell, with the region’s benchmark index headed for its first decline in three days, as commodity producers retreated on lower metal prices and Chinese developers dropped after home prices declined.

Nikkei 225 9,707.37 -15.87 -0.16%

Hang Seng 21,387.96 -292.12 -1.35%

S&P/ASX 200 4,255.55 -43.00 -1.00%

Shanghai Composite 2,426.11 -2.37 -0.10%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, lost 1.5 percent in Sydney, the biggest drag on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., a state-owned builder, lost 5.5 percent in Hong Kong.

Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd. slumped 8.6 percent after the developer said it would sell shares at a discount.

Resistance 3: Y82.75 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y82.20 (May’s high)

Resistance 1: Y81.70 (Feb 27 high)

The current price: Y81.45

Support 1:Y80.80 (session low)

Support 2:Y80.00/90 (Feb 23-24 low)

Support 3:Y79.50 (Feb 21 low, 38,2% FIBO Y76.00-Y81.70)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9205 (Feb 17 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Feb 21-22 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9080 (high of the American session on Feb 23)

The current price: Chf0.9068

Support 1: Chf0.9045 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9020/10 (Feb 27 high, Mar 1 low)

Support 3: Chf0.8930/35 (area of Feb 24-29 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.6130 (Nov 21 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.6030/40 (psychological level)

Resistance 1 : $1.5990/00 (Feb 29 high)

The current price: $1.5943

Support 1 : $1.5895 (Mar 1 low)

Support 2 : $1.5860 (38,2% FIBO $1,5650-$1,5990)

Support 3 : $1.5800 (area of Feb 27-28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.3485 (Feb 24-27 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.3390 (Feb 28 low)

Resistance 1 : $1.3360 (Mar 1 high and Feb 24 low)

The current price: $1.3301

Support 1 : $1.3280 (Mar 1 low)

Support 2 : $1.3230 (50,0% FIBO $1,2975-$ 1,3480, Feb 23 low)

Support 3 : $1.3210 (Feb 22 low)

Change % Change Last

Oil $109.32 +0.48 +0.44%

Gold $1,720.70 -1.50 -0.09%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,707.37 -15.87 -0.16%

Hang Seng 21,387.96 -292.12 -1.35%

S&P/ASX 200 4,255.55 -43.00 -1.00%

Shanghai Composite 2,426.11 -2.37 -0.10%

FTSE 100 5,931.25 +59.74 +1.02%

CAC 40 3,499.73 +47.28 +1.37%

DAX 6,941.77 +85.69 +1.25%

Dow 12,980.30 +28.23 +0.22%

Nasdaq 2,988.97 +22.08 +0.74%

S&P 500 1,374.09 +8.41 +0.62%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3312 -0,09%

GBP/USD $1,5954 +0,25%

USD/CHF Chf0,9059 +0,15%

USD/JPY Y81,12 -0,02%

EUR/JPY Y107,96 -0,14%

GBP/JPY Y129,40 +0,22%

AUD/USD $1,0809 +0,73%

NZD/USD $0,8392 +0,62%

USD/CAD C$0,9855 -0,46%

01:00 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks 0

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted January -1.4% +0.5%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y January -0.9% +0.2%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index February +0.6% +0.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y February -1.8%

09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction February 51.4 51.5

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM January -0.2% +0.6%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) January +4.3% +3.6%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) December -0.1% +0.3%