Forex-novosti i prognoze od 15-04-2015

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 56.39 +5.82%

Gold 1,201.50 +0.02%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 19,869.76 -38.92 -0.20 %

Hang Seng 27,618.82 +57.33 +0.21 %

S&P/ASX 200 5,908.42 -38.13 -0.64 %

Shanghai Composite 4,083.28 -52.28 -1.26 %

FTSE 100 7,096.78 +21.52 +0.30 %

CAC 40 5,254.35 +36.29 +0.70 %

Xetra DAX 12,231.34 +3.74 +0.03 %

S&P 500 2,106.63 +10.79 +0.51 %

NASDAQ Composite 5,011.02 +33.73 +0.68 %

Dow Jones 18,112.61 +75.91 +0.42 %

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/JPY $1,0678 +0,22%

GBP/USD $1,4832 +0,38%

USD/CHF Chf0,9651 -0,77%

USD/JPY Y119,11 -0,20%

EUR/JPY Y127,20 +0,02%

GBP/JPY Y176,65 +0,17%

AUD/USD $0,7673 +0,65%

NZD/USD $0,7585 +0,88%

USD/CAD C$1,2294 -1,59%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation April 3.2%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) March 2.9%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) March 4.1%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March 15.6 15.1

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 6.3% 6.3%

06:00 G20 G20 Meetings

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m March -1.4% 0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y March -3.6%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims April 2304

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln March 1.10 1.08

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln March 0.90 1.04

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims April 281 284

14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April 5.0 5.5

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks

19:00 U.S. FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Speaks

Stock indices closed higher on comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. The ECB President Mario Draghi said at a press conference on Wednesday that there are signs that quantitative easing by the central bank has been effective.

He pointed out the need to complete the full asset-buying programme. The ECB president added that there is no evidence for asset bubbles.

Earlier today, the ECB released its interest decision. The central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.05%.

Eurozone's unadjusted trade surplus jumped to €20.3 billion in February from €7.6 billion in January. January's figure was revised down from a surplus of €7.9 billion.

Exports climbed by 4% due to a weaker euro, while imports were flat.

Concerns over Greece's debt problems continue to weigh on markets. The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is to meet U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday.

Indexes on the close:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 7,096.78 +21.52 +0.30 %

DAX 12,231.34 +3.74 +0.03 %

CAC 40 5,254.35 +36.29 +0.70 %

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Wednesday that the Fed should raise its interest rate soon. He added that the interest rate is needed to boost the U.S. economy.

"Now may be a good time to begin normalizing monetary policy so that it is set appropriately for an improving economy over the next couple of years," Bullard said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president pointed out that the combination of a coming boom in the U.S. economy and low interest rates could lead to asset market bubbles.

He expects that the unemployment rate in the U.S. will decline below 5%.

Bullard is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Gold price traded higher today due to the weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.S. The U.S. industrial production dropped 0.6% in March, missing expectations for a 0.2% decrease, after a 0.1% rise in February. The decline was driven by lower output of utilities. The U.S. manufacturing production increased 0.1% in March. Capacity utilisation rate fell to 78.4% in March from 79.0% in February. These figures are pointing to a slower economic growth in the U.S. in the first quarter.

The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index declined to -1.19 in April from 6.90 in March, missing expectations for a rise to 7.0. It was the first negative reading since December 2014. The decline was driven by a drop in new orders.

The Fed could delay its interest rate as its decision will depend on the U.S. economic data. The recently released U.S. economic data was mostly weaker-than-expected.

June futures for gold on the COMEX today rose to 1197.30 dollars per ounce.

Oil prices traded higher as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported the higher demand. The IEA said that oil demand would climb by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2015.

The IEA warned that its outlook is becoming "murkier" because of "constantly changing" conditions.

Oil prices were also supported by lower than expected U.S. crude oil inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 483.7 million barrels in the week ended April 10. Analysts had expected an increase by 3.6 million barrel a day.

The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Wednesday that Russia has been holding consultations with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Latin America countries.

WTI crude oil for May delivery rose to $55.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude oil increased to $61.22 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. This decision was expected by analysts.

Canada's central bank said that the consumer price inflation is 1.0% due to falling energy prices, while the core consumer price inflation is close to 2%.

The BoC noted that the economy has stalled in the first quarter of 2015. The economy is expected to expand at about 2.5% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter until the middle of 2016.

The central bank expects real GDP to grow at 1.9% in 2015, 2.5% in 2016, and 2.0% in 2017.

The central bank also said that risks to the outlook for inflation are now balanced and risks to financial stability are evolving as expected.

The BoC decided that the current monetary policy remains appropriate.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its housing market index for the U.S. on Wednesday. The NAHB housing market index climbed to 56 in April from 52 in March. March's figure was revised down from 53.

Analysts had expected the index to rise to 55.

The index increased as new home sales jumped.

A level above 50.0 is considered positive, below indicates a negative outlook.

"As the spring buying season gets underway, home builders are confident that current low interest rates and continued job growth will draw consumers to the market," the NAHB Chairman Tom Woods said.

The NAHB Chief Economist, David Crowe noted that builders are optimistic that the housing market will strengthen in 2015.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said at a press conference on Wednesday that there are signs that quantitative easing by the central bank has been effective. He added that the economy in the Eurozone "has gained further momentum since the end of 2014".

Draghi pointed out the need to complete the full asset-buying programme. "The full implementation of all our monetary policy measures will provide the necessary support to the euro area recovery and bring inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% in the medium term," the ECB president said.

Draghi dismissed concerns that the central bank will not find enough bonds to purchase.

The ECB president noted that there is no evidence for asset bubbles.

The Federal Reserve released its industrial production report on Wednesday. The U.S. industrial production dropped 0.6% in March, missing expectations for a 0.2% decrease, after a 0.1% rise in February.

The decline was driven by lower output of utilities. Utility output plunged by 5.9% in March.

Mining output dropped by 0.7% in March.

The U.S. manufacturing production increased 0.1% in March. It was the first gain since November 2014.

Capacity utilisation rate fell to 78.4% in March from 79.0% in February. February's figure was revised up 78.9% Analysts had expected a capacity utilisation rate of 78.7%.

The Fed tend to use capacity utilisation as a signal of how much "slack" remains in the economy.

These figures are pointing to a slower economic growth in the U.S. in the first quarter.

EUR/USD: $1.0300(E1.6bn), $1.0400(E630mn), $1.0500(E631mn), $1.0600 (E426mn)

USD/JPY: Y118.00($332mn), Y120.00($345mn), Y120.15($1.13bn), Y121.00($780mn)

GBP/USD: $1.4400(Gbp479mn), $1.4700(Gbp734mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7600(A$371mn), $0.7675(A$485mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7500(NZ$288mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2400($418mn), C$1.2700($535mn)

The New York Federal Reserve released its survey on Wednesday. The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index declined to -1.19 in April from 6.90 in March, missing expectations for a rise to 7.0. It was the first negative reading since December 2014.

The decline was driven by a drop in new orders. The new orders index plunged to -6.0 in April from -2.39 in March.

"Many of the indexes assessing the six-month outlook conveyed more optimism about future business activity than they had in February and March," the report said.

The price-paid index increased to 19.15 in April from 12.37 in March.

The index for the number of employees decreased to 9.57 in April from 18.56 last month.

The general business conditions expectations index for the next six months climbed to 37.06 in April from 30.72 in March.

U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Wednesday, amid more first quarter financial earnings and a swathe of economic data.

Global markets:

Nikkei 19,869.76 -38.92 -0.20%

Hang Seng 27,618.82 +57.33 +0.21%

Shanghai Composite 4,083.28 -52.28 -1.26%

FTSE 7,106.48 +31.22 +0.44%

CAC 5,255.3 +37.24 +0.71%

DAX 12,288.38 +60.78 +0.50%

Crude oil $54.04 (+1.35%)

Gold $1193.00 (+0.03%)

Statistics Canada released manufacturing shipments on Wednesday. Canadian manufacturing shipments dropped 1.7% in February, missing forecasts of a 1.2% increase, after a 3.0% decrease in January.

January's figure was revised down from a 1.7% decline.

The decline was driven by a drop in the production of aerospace products and parts and lower sales of motor vehicles. Sales of motor vehicles slid 15.0% in February, while sales of aerospace products dropped 26%.

Sales of petroleum products rose 5.7% in February, while sales of chemical products climbed 8.2%.

Sales declined in 10 of 21 categories.

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Intel (INTC) upgraded from Neutral to Outperform at Wedbush, target raised from $34 to $37

Intel (INTC) upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts, target raised from $38 to $40

NIKE (NKE) upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Piper Jaffray

Downgrades:

Other:

Intel (INTC) reiterated at Buy at Topeka Capital Markets, target raised from $35 to $36

Intel (INTC) reiterated at Market Perform at Cowen, target lowered from $36 to $33

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.27 per share versus $0.29 consensus. Revenues fell 5.9% year/year to $21.42 bln versus $21.48 bln consensus.

BAC fell to $15.73 (-0.57%) on the premarket.

The OECD said on Wednesday that Japan should be aware of risks of its quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), and should implement structural reforms to boost economy. The OECD also urged Japan to boost labour productivity and remove trade barriers.

The OECD pointed out that no additional monetary easing was necessary.

Intel met first-quarter profit expectations but fell slightly short of revenue projections: Q1 earnings of $0.41 per share, in-line with consensus, revenues rose 0.1% year/year to $12.78 bln vs $12.83 bln consensus.

For the second quarter, Intel projected revenue of $12.7-13.7 bln vs. $13.45 bln consensus.

INTC gained to $32.49 (+3.18%) on the premarket.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m March -0.7% 0.1%

00:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y March 1.5% 1.9%

02:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence April -1.2% -3.2%

04:00 China Retail Sales y/y March 10.7% 10.9% 10.2%

04:00 China Industrial Production y/y March 6.8% 6.9% 5.6%

04:00 China Fixed Asset Investment February 13.9% 13.9% 13.5%

04:00 China GDP q/q Quarter I 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%

04:00 China GDP y/y Quarter I 7.3% 7.0% 7.0%

06:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) February -3.4% -3.1% -3.1%

06:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) February -2.6% -2.0%

08:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) March 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

08:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) March 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

08:45 France CPI, m/m March 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

08:45 France CPI, y/y March -0.3% -0.1%

11:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted February 7.6 €20.3B

13:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. economic data. The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index is expected to rise to 7.0 in April from 6.9 in March.

The NAHB housing market index is expected to climb to 55 in April from 53 in March.

The U.S. industrial production is expected to drop 0.2% in March, after a 0.1% rise in February.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) press conference. Earlier today, the ECB released its interest decision. The central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.05%.

Eurozone's unadjusted trade surplus jumped to €20.3 billion in February from €7.6 billion in January. January's figure was revised down from a surplus of €7.9 billion.

Exports climbed by 4% due to a weaker euro, while imports were flat.

Concerns over Greece's debt problems continue to weigh on the euro. The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is to meet U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.

The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision. Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to keep unchanged its interest rate at 0.75%.

Canada's manufacturing shipments are expected to increase 0.2% in February, after a 1.7% drop in January.

EUR/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.0570

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

14:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) February -1.7% 0.2%

14:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index April 6.9 7.0

15:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) March 0.1% -0.2%

15:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY March 3.5%

15:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization March 78.9% 78.7%

16:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.75% 0.75%

16:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

16:00 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

16:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index April 53 55

17:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

20:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

Eurozone's unadjusted trade surplus jumped to €20.3 billion in February from €7.6 billion in January. January's figure was revised down from a surplus of €7.9 billion.

Exports climbed by 4% due to a weaker euro, while imports were flat.

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0640 1.0660 1.0680 1.0700 1.0725-30 1.0760 1.0780 1.0800

Bids 1.0600 1.0580 1.0560 1.0525-30 1.0500 1.0460-70 1.0435

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4780 1.4800 1.4825-30 1.4860 1.4885 1.4900

Bids 1.4720-25 1.4700 1.4680 1.4650 1.4625 1.4600 1.4585 1.4555-60 1.4525-30

EUR/JPY

Offers 127.20 127.50 127.80 128.00 128.60

Bids 126.50 126.00 125.80 125.50 125.30 125.00

USD/JPY

Offers 119.75-80 120.00 120.20 120.50 120.65 120.80-85 121.00

Bids 119.35-40 119.20 119.00 118.85 118.55-60

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7220-25 0.7250-55 0.7270 0.7285 0.7300 0.7320-25 0.7350

Bids 0.7180-85 0.7165 0.7150 0.7135 0.7115 0.7100

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7620-25 0.7650 0.7680 0.7700 0.7720-25 0.7750

Bids 0.7570-75 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500 0.7485

Stock indices traded higher on a weaker euro. The euro declined ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision. The interest rate decision is scheduled to be released at 11:45 GMT. Analysts expect the monetary policy to remain unchanged.

Eurozone's unadjusted trade surplus jumped to €20.3 billion in February from €7.6 billion in January. January's figure was revised down from a surplus of €7.9 billion.

Exports climbed by 4%, while imports were flat.

Concerns over Greece's debt problems continue to weigh on markets. The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is to meet U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 100 7,098.95 +23.69 +0.33 %

DAX 12,285.87 +58.27 +0.48 %

CAC 40 5,252.09 +34.03 +0.65 %

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 7.0% in the first quarter of 2015, in line with expectations, down from a 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

It was the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009.

"Despite the slowing down of economic growth, employment, consumer price and market expectation remained stable," the NBS said.

"Positive factors were accumulating with restructuring work advancing steadily, transformation and upgrading showing good momentum, and new impetus experiencing rapid development," the NBS added.

EUR/USD: $1.0300(E1.6bn), $1.0400(E630mn), $1.0500(E631mn), $1.0600 (E426mn)

USD/JPY: Y118.00($332mn), Y120.00($345mn), Y120.15($1.13bn), Y121.00($780mn)

GBP/USD: $1.4400(Gbp479mn), $1.4700(Gbp734mn)

AUD/USD: $0.7600(A$371mn), $0.7675(A$485mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7500(NZ$288mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.2400($418mn), C$1.2700($535mn)

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Tuesday raised the amount the Greek central bank can lend its banks to €74 billion from €73.2 billion the previous week, according to a Greek bank official. The ECB declined to comment.

Earlier on Tuesday, a report said that Greece was preparing for a debt default if the government did not reach a deal with its creditors by the end of the month. Greece denied the report.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0791 (1124)

$1.0752 (557)

$1.0712 (69)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0633

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0596 (2264)

$1.0553 (4495)

$1.0498 (4536)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 55129 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5964);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 71187 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (8981);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.29 versus 1.30 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 14

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5008 (2441)

$1.4911 (741)

$1.4816 (1272)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4758

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4686 (2876)

$1.4590 (829)

$1.4492 (1734)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 22618 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (2441);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 29309 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4700 (2876);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.30 versus 1.32 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.