Forex-novosti i prognoze od 17-04-2015

The U.S. dollar inched higher against its main rivals Friday, snapping three sessions of losses, as fears of a Greek default drove the dollar higher.

The Labor Department said Friday that core consumer prices rose 0.2% in March on the back of higher gas prices, matching expectations of economists polled by MarketWatch. Core prices increased by the same amount in February.

Aside from Friday's gauge of consumer-price inflation, U.S. economic data released since Monday has been weak, weighing on the dollar and suggesting that the Fed will wait longer before raising interest rates.

Greece's Kathimerini newspaper reported Friday that central banks of Southeastern European countries have told subsidiaries of Greek lenders operating in their countries to exit all exposure to Greek sovereign debt, which the market interpreted as a sign that a Greek default is imminent.

Sebastien Galy, director of FX strategy at Société Générale, said that Greek default fears were driving investors into the dollar.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar rallied against its U.S. counterpart after retail sales for February and the March consumer-price index came in above economists' expectations.

Major U.S. indexes falling more than one percent on investor concerns over a clamp-down on margin trading in China and a lot of disappointing earnings results from U.S. corporations. Chinese authorities lifted restrictions on short-selling while also warning against excessive borrowing on margin, two developments that could pressure that market.

Almost all of the Dow stocks are trading in negative area (29 of 30). Top looser - American Express Company (AXP,-4.75%). Top gainer - General Electric Company (GE, +0.34%).

S&P index sectors are moving down. Top looser - Utilities (-0.6%).

At the moment:

Dow 18038.00 +16.00 +0.09%

S&P 500 2099.25 -0.50 -0.02%

Nasdaq 100 4413.00 -8.75 -0.20%

10-year yield 1.92% +0.02

Oil 56.08 -0.31 -0.55%

Gold 1196.80 -4.50 -0.37%

EUR/USD: $1.0400 (E581M), $1.0450 (E478M), $1.0600 (E612M), $1.0800 (E575M)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.7214 (E300M)

USD/CAD: C$1.2300 ($480M)

NZD/USD: $0.7580 (NZ$2.4B)

USD/JPY: Y120.00 ($1.8B), Y121.20 ($500M), Y121.40 ($401M)

U.S. stock-index futures retreated as Chinese futures tumbled after regulators updated rules on margin trading and short selling in a market where equities have led global advances for the past year.

Reports from American Express (AXP), General Electric (GE) and Honeywell (HON) are in focus of the market.

Global markets:

Nikkei 19,652.88 -232.89 -1.17%

Hang Seng 27,653.12 -86.59 -0.31%

Shanghai Composite 4,288.35 +93.53 +2.23%

FTSE 6,984.2 -76.25 -1.08%

CAC 5,149.26 -75.23 -1.44%

DAX 11,766.76 -232.10 -1.93%

Crude oil $56.23 (-0.86%)

Gold $1203.10 (+0.43%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette, target raised from $195 to $210

Other:

UnitedHealth (UNH) initiated at Buy at Mizuho, target $146

Apple (AAPL) initiated at Outperform at FBR Capital, target $185

American Express (AXP) reiterated at Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts, target lowered from $74 to $69

UnitedHealth (UNH) reiterated at Outperform at Oppenheimer, target raised from $128 to $133

Walt Disney (DIS) reiterated at Buy at Jefferies, target raised from $105 to $120

Company reports Q1 earnings of $1.41 per share versus $1.39 consensus. Revenues fell 4.8% year/year to $9.21 bln versus $9.50 bln consensus.

Company raises EPS guidance for FY15 to $6.00-6.15 from $5.95-6.15 versus $6.09 consensus and lowers guidance on revenues to $39.0-39.6 bln from $40.5-41.1 bln versus $40.52 bln consensus.

HON fell to $103.65 (-0.26%) on the premarket.

Company reports Q1 earnings of $0.31 per share versus $0.30 consensus. Revenues fell 3.1% year/year to $33.10 bln versus $34.32 bln consensus.

GE fell to $27.12 (-0.59%) on the premarket.

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0800 1.0820 1.0840 1.0865 1.0880 1.0900

Bids 1.0760 1.0740 1.0725 1.0700 1.0650-55 1.0620 1.0600

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4980-85 1.5000 1.5025-35 1.5050 1.5080 1.5100

Bids 1.4950 1.4930 1.4900 1.4885 1.4840 1.4800 1.4780 1.4750-55

EUR/JPY

Offers 128.30 128.60 129.00 129.50

Bids 127.80 127.50 127.00 126.85 126.50

USD/JPY

Offers 119.15-25 119.55-60 119.75-80 120.00 120.20 120.50

Bids 118.70 118.50-55 118.25-30 118.00 117.85

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7220-25 0.7250-55 0.7270 0.7285 0.7300 0.7320-25 0.7350

Bids 0.7175-80 0.7155-60 0.7135 0.7115 0.7100

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7825-30 0.7860 0.7880 0.7900

Bids 0.7800 0.7780-85 0.7750 0.7735 0.7700-05

EUR/USD: $1.0400 (E581M), $1.0450 (E478M), $1.0600 (E612M), $1.0800 (E575M)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.7214 (E300M)

USD/CAD: C$1.2300 ($480M)

NZD/USD: $0.7580 (NZ$2.4B)

USD/JPY: Y120.00 ($1.8B), Y121.20 ($500M), Y121.40 ($401M)

Japan's Topix index fell from a seven-year high, posting its first weekly loss this month, as the yen held five days of gains. Retailers led declines.

HANG SENG 27,597.68 -142.03 -0.51%

S&P/ASX 200 5,877.9 -69.57 -1.17%

TOPIX 1,588.69 -10.73 -0.67%

SHANGHAI COMP 4,288.35 +93.53 +2.23%

Sony Corp., a consumer electronics maker that gets more than 70 percent of sales outside Japan, lost 3.7 percent after Wikileaks published company documents.

Discount-store operator Don Quijote Holdings Co. slumped 7.6 percent.

JX Holdings Inc. advanced 2.2 percent as crude oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since 2011 and the Nikkei reported that the energy producer's profit will exceed analyst estimates.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0885 (1038)

$1.0858 (601)

$1.0832 (69)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0771

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0728 (1293)

$1.0688 (1926)

$1.0635 (2321)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 56031 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6121);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 71309 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (9095);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5208 (724)

$1.5111 (1659)

$1.5016 (2354)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4942

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4884 (1543)

$1.4788 (2344)

$1.4691 (2520)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 22962 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (2354);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 32796 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3719);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.29 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

08:00 Japan Consumer Confidence March 40.7 41.4 41.7

The Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the currency against 10 major counterparts, was little changed amid a weekly retreat of 1.5 percent, the most since the five days to March 20. Investors are poring over U.S. economic reports as they try to determine the Federal Reserve's likely path on interest rates. Officials from the U.S. central bank continued to provide conflicting signals Thursday, spurring fluctuations in Treasuries.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer sent Treasuries tumbling last session after reminding investors that the central bank wants to boost key borrowing costs. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart then halted the selloff, saying he wanted to see both falling unemployment and quickening inflation prior to the first rate increase.

The currencies of Australia and New Zealand pared their advances this week as commodity prices dropped. Iron ore, the nation's biggest export earner, fell below $50 on Thursday.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.0750-85

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.4920-45

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range Y118.85-15

The next hurdle for the euro will come from eurozone CPI due later today at 0900 GMT.