Forex-novosti i prognoze od 26-04-2021

eFXdata reports that analysts at Credit Suisse discuss EUR/GBP technical outlook and adopts a tactical bullish bias in the near term.

"We now see a “head & shoulders” base established to reinforce the recent bullish “reversal week” to mark a more important turn higher. We would then see resistance initially at the 38.2% retracement of the fall from December at .8761 ahead of .8793/99 and then more importantly at the “neckline” to the medium-term top at .8851/61."

"Support moves back to .8679, with a break below .8667 needed to ease the immediate pressure off resistance at .8722/32."

According to ActionForex, analysts at Wells Fargo Securities note that despite sky-high readings from surveys of manufacturers, the hard factory data continue to come in short of expectations. 

"Durable goods orders rose just 0.5% in March which was well short of consensus expectations for a gain of 2.3%. The fact that February durable goods figures were revised to show a smaller decline than initially reported takes some, but not all, of the sting out of it. A drop in orders in categories not closely tied to near-term business spending, like aircraft as well as defense, account for much of the shortcomings."

"Excluding transportation categories, durable goods orders was bang-on expectations for the month, up 1.6% in March and the initially reported 0.9% decline for this category last month was cut by two-thirds to a decline of just 0.3%. After accounting for revisions then, ex-transportation orders increased a bit more than expected."

"Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense, rose “only” 0.9% in March, barely overcoming February’s drop. Yet that still puts core capex orders up an impressive 10.2% since February 2020. Equipment spending is expected to slow in Thursday’s Q1 GDP release, but with nondefense capital goods shipments bouncing back 1.9% in March, business investment is still on track to grow at a double-digit pace."

"While the factory sector continues to contend with the unique growing pains caused by a global pandemic, the underlying momentum in manufacturing remains strong. Hiring picked up in March, with factories bringing on an additional 53K workers in a sign strength is expected to continue, and the early April purchasing manager indices have done just that."

FXStreet notes that oil prices fell back last week as the demand outlook in Asia deteriorated. However, assuming that the latest virus outbreaks are contained before too long, strategists at Capital Economics remain relatively optimistic on the global oil demand outlook and expect prices to reverse course before long and rise in the months ahead.

“We still think that global demand will boom in the coming quarters, led by the US. The progressive easing of quarantine measures there should continue to lift travel mobility and demand for products, such as gasoline.”

“We don’t expect OPEC+ to make any major changes to production quotas.”

James Knightley, the Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that despite a sharp slowdown in the U.S. durable goods orders growth in March, the stimulus-fuelled consumer sector provides a strong underpinning and both residential and equipment investment will contribute positively to what looks likely to be a very strong Q1 GDP figure.

"March US durable goods orders are weaker than expected, rising 0.5% MoM versus the consensus forecast of 2.3%. There are upward revisions to the history, but it still classifies as a downside miss."

"The weakness is concentrated in the transport section (-1.7%) with the semi-conductor chip shortage leading to well-publicised production cut-backs at automakers. This is resulting in fewer orders for other vehicle components. The electrical equipment component (-1.5%) is suffering for the same reason."

"Stimulus payment fueled consumer spending, coupled with robust residential construction activity resulting from a red-hot housing market will give 1Q GDP growth strong foundations. On top of this, there is a rebound in oil and gas drilling on higher prices, while durable goods orders point to a very healthy contribution from investment in equipment and software."

"The main drags will be inventory rundowns due to supply chain issues, tied to the same semi-conductor chips issue. Net trade will also subtract from headline growth as strong consumer spending sucks in imports while weaker growth elsewhere will limit export growth."

"On balance, we see the risks to 6.5% consensus forecast as being to the upside and forecast 7.4% annualised growth. 2Q 2021 should be even stronger as the re-opening gathers increasing momentum."

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on Monday, as investors took a cautious stance in front of a crucial week in Q1 earnings reports, including those from the big technology names.

Global Stocks:

• ECB has already asserted its monetary autonomy and will continue to use it to bring inflation back to our aim of 2%
• We should avoid withdrawing support - either deliberately or by tolerating adverse spillovers - until the output gap is closed and we see inflation sustainably back at 2%
• Inflation remains well below our aim in our projection horizon
• Globalization does not seem to impose an insurmountable constraint on ECB's monetary policy

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Monday that the durable goods orders rose 0.5 percent m-o-m in March, following a revised 0.9 percent m-o-m drop in February (originally a 1.1 percent m-o-m decrease).

Economists had forecast a 2.5 percent m-o-m gain.

According to the report, the March gain was driven by a 3.6 percent m-o-m surge in orders for fabricated metal products, which, however, was offset by a 1.7 percent m-o-m decline in orders for transportation equipment. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding transportation jumped 1.6 percent m-o-m in March, following a revised 0.3 percent m-o-m fall in February (originally a 0.9 percent m-o-m decline), matching economists’ forecast of 1.6 percent m-o-m advance.

Elsewhere, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.9 percent m-o-m in March after a revised 0.9 percent decline m-o-m in February (originally a 0.8 percent m-o-m drop). Economists had called for a 1.8 percent m-o-m advance in core capital goods orders in March.

Shipments of these core capital goods climbed 1.3 percent m-o-m in March after a revised 1.1 percent m-o-m drop in the prior month.

FXStreet reports that S&P 500 has ended the week strongly after again holding key price and 13-day exponential average support at 4130/18. Despite this strength, economists at Credit Suisse still recommend to not chase further strength for now and instead look for a consolidation/corrective phase to emerge within the core uptrend.

“S&P 500 has moved to a new record high for a move again to just shy of our Q2 objective of 4200. Despite this strength, though our core view remains unchanged and with a range of ‘red flags’ and overextension signals in place and with OnBalanceVolume still not confirming the new highs we do not look to chase strength for now and instead we continue to look for a consolidation/corrective phase to emerge within the core long-term uptrend.” 

“Support moves to 4180/75 initially, then 4153, below which can see a retest of 4130/4118. A close below 4118 though remains needed to mark a near-term top to clear the way for a deeper setback with support then seen initially at 4097/96, ahead of 4081 and then 4068.”

EUR dropped against most of its major rivals in the European session on Monday, as investors were disappointed by a weaker-than-expected reading of business sentiment in Germany.

Germany's Ifo institute reported its Business Climate Index edged up to 96.8 points in April from 96.6 points in the previous month. This was the highest reading since June 2019, but missed economists' forecasts of 97.8, as respondents noted the impact of the third wave of infections and supply-chain bottlenecks. The survey revealed that sentiment improved among manufacturers and traders, but deteriorated among service providers and constructors.

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group suggest that USD/JPY could slip back to the 107.30 region in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “We expected USD to weaken last Friday but we were of the view that ‘the major support at 107.65 is unlikely to come under threat’. However, USD plummeted to 107.45 before snapping back up to close little changed for the day (107.91, -0.05%). The sharp and rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook. For today, USD could trade between 107.50 and 108.20.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading in a quiet manner for a few days, USD plunged through 107.65 on Friday. However, the decline was short-lived as it rebounded quickly from 107.46. While shorter-term outlook is mixed, the current weak phase in USD that started about 3 weeks ago is still intact. Only a break of 108.40 (‘strong resistance level previously at 108.55) would indicate that the weak phase has run its course. Until then, there is chance for USD to move lower to 107.30. The prospect for the weakness to extend to 107.00 is not high for now.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that EUR/CHF continues to grind higher within its potential bull “flag”, with a break above 1.1118 triggering the pattern to open up a more dynamic move higher.

“We maintain that the EUR/CHF pair may be forming a larger bullish ‘flag’ continuation pattern and stay bullish.” 

“Next resistance is seen at 1.1081/89, then 1.1118/23, above which would confirm the pattern to suggest the broader bull trend is resuming, with scope for a move to the 1.1152/58 highs initially and eventually beyond.” 

“We look for 1.10012/06 to ideally hold, with more important support just below here at the broad 1.0975/56 zone.”

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assesses the latest ECB event (last Thursday).

“As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance.”

“Last month, the ECB said it was going to increase government bond purchases — though still within the planned envelope of EUR1.85tn until March 2022 — to address rising bond yields in the Eurozone... Since the announcement, net purchases have gone up over the past couple of weeks in keeping with the stance at the March meeting to bring them forward as a containment measure against higher yields.”

“Overall, we think the ECB will remain cautious. There have been more hawkish members of the ECB expressing hopes that ECB will be able to unwind its stimulus program. But ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that there was no discussion on phasing out purchases under the PEPP and the exchange rate comments also did not surprise. Going forward, how the pandemic and respective vaccination programs play out will be crucial.”

April 26

After the Close:

Tesla (TSLA). Consensus EPS $0.73, Consensus Revenues $9887.10 mln

April 27

Before the Open:

3M (MMM). Consensus EPS $2.29, Consensus Revenues $8431.81 mln

General Electric (GE). Consensus EPS $0.01, Consensus Revenues $17655.95 mln

Raytheon Technologies (RTX). Consensus EPS $0.73, Consensus Revenues $15266.28 mln

UPS (UPS). Consensus EPS $1.72, Consensus Revenues $20615.72 mln

After the Close:

Advanced Micro (AMD). Consensus EPS $0.44, Consensus Revenues $3203.85 mln

Alphabet (GOOG). Consensus EPS $15.64, Consensus Revenues $51396.28 mln

Microsoft (MSFT). Consensus EPS $1.77, Consensus Revenues $40833.80 mln

Starbucks (SBUX). Consensus EPS $0.52, Consensus Revenues $6752.06 mln

Visa (V). Consensus EPS $1.26, Consensus Revenues $5542.88 mln

April 28

Before the Open:

Boeing (BA). Consensus EPS -$1.08, Consensus Revenues $15949.89 mln

United Micro (UMC). Consensus EPS $0.56, Consensus Revenues $46432.07 mln

After the Close:

Apple (AAPL). Consensus EPS $0.98, Consensus Revenues $76836.95 mln

eBay (EBAY). Consensus EPS $1.07, Consensus Revenues $2968.57 mln

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $2.32, Consensus Revenues $23607.66 mln

Ford Motor (F). Consensus EPS $0.13, Consensus Revenues $32718.68 mln

Qualcomm (QCOM). Consensus EPS $1.67, Consensus Revenues $7621.81 mln

April 29

Before the Open:

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $1.04, Consensus Revenues $4979.86 mln

Caterpillar (CAT). Consensus EPS $1.88, Consensus Revenues $11000.17 mln

Int'l Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $0.64, Consensus Revenues $5336.57 mln

MasterCard (MA). Consensus EPS $1.56, Consensus Revenues $3973.57 mln

McDonald's (MCD). Consensus EPS $1.80, Consensus Revenues $5015.29 mln

Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $1.63, Consensus Revenues $12708.69 mln

After the Close:

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $9.55, Consensus Revenues $104592.49 mln

Twitter (TWTR). Consensus EPS $0.14, Consensus Revenues $1026.43 mln

April 30

Before the Open:

Chevron (CVX). Consensus EPS $0.85, Consensus Revenues $31824.91 mln

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $0.53, Consensus Revenues $55359.72 mln

FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse note that EUR/USD is seeing a key test of resistance at its March high and potential downtrend at 1.2113/18. A close above here can see the next resistance at 1.2212.

“EUR/USD is now testing resistance at 1.2103/18 – the 61.8% retracement of the Q1 fall, March high and potential downtrend from the beginning of the year. Whilst we continue to look for this to try and cap, we have to recognize underlying momentum remains strong and a close above 1.2118 would mark an important break higher, opening the door to a move back to the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 1.2212, with scope for the 1.2243 February high. We would look for a fresh cap ahead of this latter high. A direct break though would clear the way for a retest of the high for the year at 1.2350.” 

RTTNews reports that data released by the statistical office INE showed that Spain's producer prices increased at the fastest pace in more than four years in March driven by energy prices.

Producer price inflation climbed to 6.3 percent in March from 0.6 percent in February. This was the highest rate since February 2017, when prices advanced 7.4 percent.

Excluding energy, producer price inflation improved to 4 percent from 2.5 percent. Energy prices surged 12.2 percent annually. Prices of intermediate goods and capital goods grew 7.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Consumer goods prices rose 1.7 percent.

FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s FX Strategists note further weakness in USD/CNH is expected to meet solid contention around 6.4700.

Next 1-3 weeks: “21 April, we indicated that the ‘downside risk in USD remains intact and the next support below 6.4850 is at 6.4700’. USD broke 6.4850 and dropped to 6.4802. Despite the breach of 6.4850, downward momentum has not improved by much. That said, the risk is still for a lower USD but any weakness is expected to encounter solid support at 6.4700. O the upside, a breach of 6.5200 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in USD that started more than a week ago has come to an end.”

Reuters reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told that americans who have been vaccinated against Covid-19 should be able to travel to Europe by summer, easing existing travel restrictions.

She told that the union’s 27 members would accept, unconditionally, all those who are vaccinated with vaccines that are approved” by the European Medicines Agency. The agency has approved the three vaccines used in the United States.

“The Americans, as far as I can see, use European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines,” von der Leyen said. “This will enable free movement and travel to the European Union.”

She did not say when travel could resume. The EU largely shut down nonessential travel more than a year ago.

Bloomberg reports that copper surged to the highest in a decade on expectations supply will tighten as the global economic recovery gains traction.

Prices have climbed amid a broad rally across industrial commodities from iron ore to aluminum. The metal’s integral role in the green-energy transition is further fanning expectations that the rally will be long-lived, with countries worldwide rolling out more aggressive climate targets. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and trader Trafigura Group have said they expect prices to top the record of $10,190 in 2011 and push substantially higher as demand outstrips supply.

Early indicators showed China, the top metals consumer, continued to boom in April after record growth in the first quarter with strong exports and rising business confidence supporting the recovery. Data this week may show the U.S. economy’s accelerating pace of recovery, while Federal Reserve policy makers are likely to reiterate that they are in no hurry to withdraw support.

FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, if Powell’s FOMC press conference passes without any surprise change in the cautious communication approach, the USD negative momentum looks set to continue for now. 

“The main event risk for the US dollar in the week ahead which could potentially challenge the bearish trend currently in place is the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to acknowledge building evidence of a robust economic recovery at the start of this year. The better than expected economic data flow has lifted the consensus forecast for GDP growth in Q1 to almost 7% annualized. However, it remains too early for Chair Powell to change his dovish stance. By the summer the Fed will likely have enough evidence of a robust recovery to suggest that tapering could be on the horizon.” 

“For the US dollar to derive more support in the week ahead, the Fed would have to tweak the ‘some time’ guidance to bring forward QE tapering expectations further. Without a hawkish surprise, the US dollar should continue to trade on the back foot for now.”

Reuters reports that the Ifo institute survey showed that German business morale improved by less than expected in April as a third wave of COVID-19 infections and problems with supply of components in the industrial sector slowed a recovery.

Business climate index edged up to 96.8 from 96.6 in March. Economists had expected an increase to 97.8. Current Economic Assessment arrived at 94.1 points as compared to last month's 93.1 and 94.4 anticipated. The Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, fell to 99.5 in April from the previous month’s 100.3 and better than the market expectations of 101.3.

"Both the third wave of infections and bottlenecks in intermediate products are impeding Germany's economic recovery," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

FXStreet reports that Standard Chartered discusses USD/CAD prospects.

“Leveraging US economic growth, an expansive Canadian budget and an increasingly hawkish BoC are CAD-positives. Exiting current lockdowns and improving nationwide vaccination rates should be the next catalysts for the pair.” 

“We expect a challenge and a likely break of the March low at 1.2360 and a decline towards the 2017-2018 lows at 1.2060.”

Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs said that Britain looks set to see faster economic growth than the United States this year as the country races ahead with its vaccination programme after its slump in 2020.

The bank said that it now expects British GDP to grow by a “striking” 7.8% this year, “above our expectations for the U.S.” 

The International Monetary Fund has projected a 5.3% expansion.

But since those forecasts were made there have been signs of an acceleration in the pace of recovery with the country now having given a first coronavirus vaccine to more than half of its total population.

“The UK economy is rebounding sharply from the Covid crisis,” Goldman Sachs said.

“The April flash PMI was much stronger than expected in the UK, with the services PMI moving strongly further into expansionary territory,” it said.

The note did not provide a comparison forecast for U.S. economic growth this year. In February, Goldman said it expected U.S. GDP would grow by 6.8% in 2021 as President Joe Biden pushed ahead with a huge fiscal stimulus programme.

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against the euro, and fell against the pound and the yen.

Last week, the euro rose against the dollar to the highest level in 7 weeks, which, in particular, was supported by the eurozone PMI data published on Friday. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has lost 1.3% against the dollar, but since the beginning of April, the euro has increased by 3%.

Meanwhile, the yen is supported by the demand for safe haven assets against the background of the introduction of an emergency regime in Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo.

Meanwhile, Japan's index of leading economic indicators rose to 98.7 points in February from 98.1 points a month earlier. This is the maximum value of the indicator since October 2018. However, preliminary data indicated a greater increase in the indicator - up to 99.7 points.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, fell by 0.10%. Last week, it posted its third consecutive weekly decline.

This week, traders are waiting for the outcome of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which starts tomorrow. Analysts predict that the Fed will maintain the parameters of monetary policy. However, they believe that the regulator is under increasing pressure.

"As inflation is likely to approach 4% in May and prove to be more resilient than the Fed publicly acknowledges, we believe the Fed may begin to scale back asset purchases before the end of this year," ING experts said.

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD is now expected to meet the next significant resistance at 1.2185.

Next 1-3 weeks: “The positive phase in EUR is moving into its third week now. In our latest narrative from last Thursday, we highlighted ‘as long as EUR does not move below 1.1965, there is still scope for it to advance to 1.2115’. EUR soared to 1.2099 on Friday and the boost in upward momentum suggests that a break of 1.2115 would not be surprising. Looking ahead, the next major resistance is above this level is at 1.2185 (there is a minor resistance at 1.2145). Overall, the positive phase is deemed intact as long as EUR does not move below 1.2020 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1965).”

CNBC reports that Wells Fargo Securities’ Michael Schumacher predicts the current risk backdrop will re-energize yields in the coming weeks.

He lists the Fed’s high level of comfortableness surrounding rising inflation, the massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the pipeline and the economic data’s strength.

“It’s a recipe for yields to go up and perhaps pretty significantly,” the firm’s head of macro strategy told CNBC.

The 10-year yield is hovering around 1.50%, falling almost 5% over the past month. But it’s up 70% so far this year. Schumacher expects the 10-year yield to end the year between 2.10% and 2.40%.

“It sounds aggressive,” he said. “But when you think about the move that happened in February and March, it’s really not that extreme a move.”

Schumacher warns the opposite is true for inflation.

“We’ve got inflation rising pretty significantly for the next few months,” he added. “When you think back to a year ago, economies were in lockdown. Inflation actually came down quite a bit.”

eFXdata reports that NAB Research discusses GBP/USD outlook.

"Along with fast-evolving mutations, the UK will be a keenly watched experiment of the steps to recovery. The good news is the UK economic data has overall been stronger than expected. Recent World Bank growth forecasts put the UK at a conservative 5% this year, but at a US-beating 5.6% in 2022," NAB notes.

"We suggested GBP’s recent pull-back would hold the 1.35- 1.38 area before rebuilding for renewed assaults on ground above 1.40. Our mid-year target remains an ambitious 1.45," NAB adds.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2184 (1265)

$1.2155 (1534)

$1.2134 (1361)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2109

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2050 (297)

$1.2021 (927)

$1.1984 (1362)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 53240 contracts (according to data from April, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (3328);

GBP/USD

$1.3994 (777)

$1.3965 (1855)

$1.3942 (911)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3904

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3813 (683)

$1.3786 (345)

$1.3755 (419)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 7 is 12207 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2933);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 18335 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3750 (1922);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.50 versus 1.46 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.