Forex-novosti i prognoze od 30-07-2012

During the American session, the euro has stabilized in a narrow range after reaching a two-day minimum. After the speech, Draghi last week, the players remain cautious, as the ECB may disappoint investors hoping for a more active anti-crisis measures. Market participants are preparing for possibly making a key week, central banks with respect to monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

Earlier, the euro fell slightly after reaching on Friday the 3-week high against the U.S. dollar, despite the promise of a joint German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to do everything to protect the euro area, given by them on Saturday and despite the decline in yields of Spanish government bonds.

Also negative for the single currency have data showing that economic sentiment in the euro zone have deteriorated more than expected in July due to declining confidence in all sectors. Reducing fixed for the fourth consecutive month. The survey data from the European Commission showed that the index of economic sentiment fell to 87.9 in July from 89.9 a month earlier. The index of economic confidence in the industry continued its downward trend that began in March. Industrial confidence fell to -15 in July from -12.8 the previous month.

The pound fell after the Bank of England data showed that the number of approved applications for mortgages fell in June, reflecting economic weakness in the month due to the extra holidays and a very wet weather. Consumer lending on credit cards has increased, but the mortgage lending for house purchase fell to its lowest level over the past year and a half. Recall that last week, official data showed that the economic indicators in the second quarter of 2012 recorded the biggest fall since the beginning of 2009.

European stocks rose to their highest level since April amid optimism the European Central Bank will win support from policy makers for a plan to ease the euro area’s debt crisis.

ECB President Mario Draghi proposes using the euro area’s temporary rescue fund to buy government bonds on the primary market, while the central bank purchases securities on the secondary market to ensure the transmission of its record-low interest rates, two central bank officials said on July 27 on condition of anonymity.

European stocks rose for an eighth consecutive week last week as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande joined Draghi in promising to do everything to protect the euro.

Air France surged 19 percent to 4.62 euros, its biggest gain in two decades, after posting a narrower second-quarter loss as a restructuring program helped to reduce operating costs. Europe’s second-largest airline by sales reported an operating loss of 66 million euros compared with 145 million euros a year earlier. That beat the average estimate for a 163 million-euro operating loss of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue rose 4.5 percent to 6.5 billion euros.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, the parent company of British Airways Plc, rose 7.2 percent to 162 pence. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s biggest airline by sales, gained 3.2 percent to 10.41 euros.

National benchmark indexes climbed in western-European market except Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and France’s CAC 40 Index jumped 1.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index gained 1.3 percent.

Oil fell for the first time in five days as the dollar advanced against the euro and amid concern that central bankers will take insufficient action this week to bolster economic growth.

Futures dropped as much as 0.8 percent in New York and the euro weakened against the dollar as European economic confidence worsened. U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England policy makers are all scheduled to meet this week. ECB President Mario Draghi is holding talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Frankfurt today.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area dropped to 87.9 this month from 89.9 in June, the European Commission said in Brussels. That’s the lowest level since September 2009.

Crude oil for September delivery fell to $89.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for September settlement declined 32 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $106.15 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The price of gold fluctuates on Monday after a significant growth in the last week due to the optimism caused by the promise of the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to do everything possible to save the eurozone.

This week's ECB meeting will be held and the U.S. Federal Reserve, on which are waiting for new stimulus measures. The culmination will be August 1, 2012, when the FOMC of U.S. Federal Reserve on the basis of a two-day meeting will announce its decision on the level of the base interest rate.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX is trading today in the range of 1613.1 - 1625.8 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2190, $1.2150

USD/JPY Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.20, Y79.0

EUR/JPY Y96.000

GBP/USD $1.5650

USD/CHF Chf0.9700

AUD/USD $1.0310

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2975

Data

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June +0.7% +2.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln June 1.3 0.8 0.3

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals June 51.1 47.3 44

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator July -0.94 -1.27

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence July -12.7 -13.5 +15.0

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance July 42 18 11

The euro fell for the first time in four days against the dollar and the yen after it became known that the recession in Spain is compounded, and the fourth largest economy in the region will struggle to reduce debt. The single currency has dropped from nearly two-week high against the yen after a report showed that European debt crisis affected consumer sentiment. Also there were rumors that the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will announce at the next meeting to be held on August 2 decision on additional measures to ease the debt crisis.

The Australian dollar rose against the dollar to its highest level in four months ahead of the publication of data on business optimism index, which came out far above expectations, indicating a possible improvement in fighting the debt crisis. But it also weakened against the yen on expectations of data on unemployment.

The pound weakened for the first time in three days against the dollar, reaching a five-week high after data from the UK showed that the number of approved applications for mortgages fell to 44,192 units, compared with a revised figure for May at 50,544 units, reaching a with the lowest level since December 2010. The average forecast in a survey of analysts had been at the level of 48,000 units. A separate report also showed that house prices fell for the first time this year and probably will decline further as the recession hampers demand for homes.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2440/50, $1.2420, $1.2390/400, $1.2375, $1.2320/25

Bids $1.2240, $1.2225/20, $1.2180/70

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.5800/10, $1.5780, $1.5750

Bids $1.5655/50, $1.5620, $1.5560/50

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0520

Bids $1.0400, $1.0385/80, $1.0350, $1.0320

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85

Bids stg0.7800, stg0.7780/75, stg0.7755/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y97.30/35, Y97.00, Y96.80/85, Y96.60

Bids Y95.65/60, Y95.50, Y95.20, Y95.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.65/70

Bids Y78.10, Y77.50

Positively influenced the course of trading on the fact that the parliamentary coalition in Greece almost agreed on measures to save 11.5 billion euros. This reduces the probability of default of Greece and its coming out of the eurozone.

Also on the eve of the French media reported, citing unnamed sources that the ECB and EU leaders are preparing joint anti-crisis action. They suggest the use of financial aid funds to purchase government bonds in Spain and Italy in the primary market, while the ECB will resume buying bonds on the secondary market.

At the moment:

FTSE 100 5,653.69 +26.48 +0.47%

DAX 6,740.02 +50.62 +0.76%

CAC 3,305.98 +25.79 +0.79%

Shares of Barclays +1,8%, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group rose 1.6% and 1.1% respectively.

Sold E750mln vs target E250mln-E750mln 2015 BTP; avg yield 4.49%, cover 1.89

Sold E2.485bln vs target E1.5bln-E2.5bln 2022 BTP;avg yield 5.96% (6.19%), cover 1.29 (1.28)

Sold E2.244bln vs target E1.25bln-E2.25bln 2017 BTP;avg yield 5.29% (5.84%), cover 1.34 

EUR/USD $1.2190, $1.2150

USD/JPY Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.20, Y79.0

EUR/JPY Y96.000

GBP/USD $1.5650

USD/CHF Chf0.9700

AUD/USD $1.0310

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2975

Asian stocks headed for the biggest three-day gain in seven weeks, as financial firms advanced amid optimism European policy makers will support the euro and after companies including Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. reported earnings.

Nikkei 225 8,635.44 +68.80 +0.80%

S&P/ASX 200 4,245.7 +35.93 +0.85%

Shanghai Composite 2,112.67 -16.09 -0.76%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia’s biggest lender by market value, gained 1.8 percent in Sydney after the cost to protect Asian bonds against default declined.

Konica Minolta, an imaging-equipment maker that gets 28 percent of its sales in Europe, jumped 5.8 percent in Tokyo after operating profit almost doubled from a year earlier.

Iluka Resources Ltd. surged 9.2 percent in Sydney after Morgan Stanley raised the mining company’s investment rating.

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June +0.7% +2.8%

On Friday the euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said that they will do everything necessary to protect the single currency. The single currency showed its first weekly gain against the dollar since June.

The dollar rose against the yen to its highest level for the week after, as U.S. growth slowed in the second quarter, less than economists forecast. U.S. gross domestic product grew by 1.5 percent per year, after a revised growth of 2% in the previous quarter. The average forecast was at + 1.4%. Japan's currency weakened against the U.S. dollar after the GDP data, which caused a decrease in the yield on two-year bonds at levels up to 0.25%. The yen fell against major currencies after government data showed a decrease in the consumer price index in Japan, which is evidence that people are struggling with deflation.

The Canadian dollar rose to a 10-week high against the U.S. dollar, as stock prices and oil prices rose on a background of demand for riskier assets.

Currency closer to parity with the dollar after a report showed the U.S. economy, which is the largest trading partner, Canada, has expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest gain in almost eight months, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro.

Nikkei 225 8,566.64 +123.54 +1.46%

S&P/ASX 200 4,209.77 +62.04 +1.50%

Shanghai Composite 2,128.77 +2.76 +0.13%

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest lender, rose 2.6 percent in Hong Kong.

LG Display Co., which makes digital products, gained 7.3 percent in Seoul on expectations earnings will improve.

China Zhongwang Holdings Ltd., which makes aluminum used in rail carriages and airplanes, jumped 6.3 percent in Hong Kong after saying profit will increase.

Hitachi Chemical Co., a Japanese manufacturer of chemical products, surged 8.9 percent after raising its profit forecast.

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June +0.7% +2.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln June 1.3 0.8

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals June 51.1 47.3

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator July -0.94

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence July -12.7 -13.5

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance July 42 18

23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence July -29 -28

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 49.9

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y June +4.0% +3.1%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate June 4.4% 4.4%