Forex-novosti i prognoze od 26-07-2012

The euro rose against the dollar by more than two figures, while showing the greatest increase since the beginning of the month after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to do everything necessary to keep the EU.

The dollar rose slightly against other major currencies, as the published data showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low, while reducing concerns about the weakening of economic growth. At the same time, orders for durable goods fell more than analysts had forecast.

The dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen at levels eight-week lows. fluctuated between gains and losses against the yen, trading at about eight weeks low.

The Canadian dollar reached a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as risk appetite increased. He rose to $ 1.0063, which is a maximum of 16 May.

New Zealand dollar rose 1.4% to $ 0.8020, reached in this case is almost the highest level of cents per week. The head of the Reserve Bank Alan Bollard has left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, stating that the economy should grow moderately.

The pound rose 1.5%, showing the biggest intraday gain since December 31, 2010. This was due to information that European politicians will make all efforts to contain the debt crisis, which ultimately lead to improved prospects for the UK economy.

European stocks climbed, halting a four-day selloff, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) jumped 2.1 percent to 255.61 at 2:22 p.m. in London as all but 58 companies advanced. The gauge had dropped 4.4 percent the previous four sessions as a surge in Spanish bond yields above 7 percent reignited concern that Europe’s debt crisis is yet to be contained.

Stocks surged after Draghi signaled central bank officials are prepared to do whatever is needed to ensure the euro’s survival and act on surging bond yields. His comments came as Spanish policy makers called on the central bank to fight a renewed bout of financial turmoil that pushed the country’s bond yields to euro-area records this week.

Spanish and Italian bonds advanced for a second day. Spain’s two-year yields fell the most this month after Draghi said addressing high yields on sovereign debt was within the central bank’s mandate. German bunds declined as his comments damped demand for the region’s safest assets.

National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 western- European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4 percent, France’s CAC 40 jumped 3.1 percent and Germany’s DAX climbed 1.8 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 jumped 4.3 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB surged 4.9 percent.

FTSE 100 5,573.16 +74.84 +1.36% CAC 40 3,207.12 +125.38 +4.07% DAX 6,582.96 +176.44 +2.75%

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Spain’s largest bank, climbed 7.1 percent to 4.75 euros. UniCredit (UCG), Italy’s biggest lender, surged 7.4 percent to 2.54 euros in Milan.

Unilever rose 6.2 percent to 2,272 pence, the highest since at least September 1988, after the world’s second-biggest consumer-goods maker announced a 5.8 percent gain in underlying revenue in the second quarter, boosted by the growth of personal-care products in Asia. The average analyst estimate surveyed by the company was for a 4.8 percent increase.

France Telecom climbed 4.6 percent to 10.74 euros after the country’s largest phone company reported a 3.2 percent decline in first-half revenue to 21.8 billion euros as price cuts helped slow customer defections. That compares with the 21.7 billion- euro average analyst estimate.

ABB Ltd. (ABBN) gained 4.7 percent to 16.53 Swiss francs after the maker of power-transmission equipment said it’s more confident about its short-term outlook as orders increased in China in recent months and it experienced “sustained order growth” in the U.S. Net income for the second quarter still fell 27 percent to $656 million, missing analyst estimates.

Telefonica SA (TEF) rallied 0.8 percent to 8.73 euros. The shares had tumbled as much as 8.7 percent after Europe’s biggest phone company suspended its 1.50 euro-a-share dividend for 2012 and reduced a revenue forecast.

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) sank 4.8 percent to 83.3 euro cents after France’s largest network-equipment supplier said it will cut 5,000 jobs as part of a plan to save an additional 750 million euros. The company’s net loss, its first in five quarters, was 254 million euros compared with net income of 43 million euros a year earlier.

Volkswagen AG (VOW) retreated 1.7 percent to 131.35 euros as Europe’s biggest carmaker reported a 3.4 percent rise in second- quarter operating profit to 3.28 billion euros, slower than the first quarter’s 10 percent increase. Second-quarter sales gains also slowed to 19 percent from 26 percent.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) slid 3 percent to 2,122 pence as Europe’s biggest oil company today reported a 13 percent drop in second-quarter profit, excluding one-time items and inventory changes, to $5.7 billion. That missed the average analyst estimate of $6.3 billion.

Today, crude oil futures soared to $ 105 a barrel, after the European Central Bank said it was ready to act, that would protect the euro from collapse. It also will support further increases in oil prices provided the data on employment in the United States, which were much better than expected. Report of the U.S. government showed that the number of Americans who have filed for unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low, leading to a decrease in concern about weakening economic growth in the largest consumer of oil in the world. Oil prices rose amid signs of a slowdown in the U.S., because the weak data reinforces expectations the Fed to enter the third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.

President Mario Draghi has promised to do everything necessary to protect the euro from collapse. He also said that the biggest problem in the market now is not economic weakness, and lack of confidence in solving the current debt crisis in the euro area.

The spread of the debt crisis in the euro area, along with other political and economic factors, led to swings in energy prices on the background of falling demand due to the tense situation in the Middle East.

Analysts expect volatility to continue, as the prospects for economic stimulus in the U.S. are putting pressure on the market.

Volatility also contributed to the reduction of corporate income among major oil companies that have already been affected by slowing demand in connection with the debt crisis in Europe.

Shell - the second-largest Western oil company in the world, said profit fell to about $ 6.0 billion from $ 8.0 billion last year. The fall was due to lower oil prices and rising operating costs.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) - World's largest publicly traded oil company said a decline in quarterly profit, driven by lower oil and gas.

The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now at $ 89.49 a barrel.

September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture increased to $ 105.21 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Today, gold is once again continued its upward movement, after yesterday's rapid growth. This was due to the fact that the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi said that politicians will do whatever is necessary to maintain the euro and amid growing expectations of further U.S. economic stimulus. Gold prices rose to a three-week high above $ 1620 per ounce.

Futures on the precious metals continued to rise on the achievements of the previous session, which showed the largest one-day increase since the end of June, as weak U.S. data renewed talk of another round of quantitative easing.

Many analysts predict that if the Fed would embark on quantitative easing program, it will lead to a weakening dollar, and the fact that market participants will again look to gold as a safe asset.

Further monetary stimulus will also continue to put pressure on long-term interest rates, while maintaining the possibility of reducing the price of gold to the lowest values. Significantly price movement may begin after the data will be presented in terms of U.S. GDP for the second quarter. It is expected that growth will be 1.1%. But if the growth rate will be below expectations, the Fed may resort to an additional stimulus in the coming weeks and months that will affect the value of precious metals.

The increase in gold prices caused a small sales in the physical gold market in Asia, but market participants are worried that prices will lose momentum as political uncertainty remains in the spotlight.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today has grown to a value of $ 1621.5, and then slightly decreased and now stands at 1616.0 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2010, $1.2050, $1.2060, $1.2100, $1.2110, $1.2140, $1.2170, $1.2180, $1.2200

USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.00, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.7800, stg0.7900

USD/CHF Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0305, $1.0350

The nearest resistance level of $ 1.5715 (Jul 19-20 high)

U.S. stock futures rose as jobless claims fell, durable-goods orders climbed and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged to defend the euro.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,443.1 +77.20 +0.92%
Hang Seng 18,892.79 +15.46 +0.08%
Shanghai Composite 2,126 -10.15 -0.47%
FTSE  5,573.47 +75.15 +1.37%
CAC  3,173.92 +92.18 +2.99%
DAX 6,516.53 +110.01 +1.72%
Crude oil $90.23 (+1,42%)
Gold $1613.30 (+0,32%)

Caterpillar (CAT) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo.

Last $1.2302 after a hight at $1.2310 and stops noted above $1.2320 despite strong offers into the resistance level.

Data:

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey August 5.8 5.9 5.9

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y June +2.9% +2.9% +3.2%

The euro jumped against the dollar by the most in almost a month after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the 17-nation currency.

The main event of the European session was the presentation of the ECB Mario Draghi, who said that the regulator is ready to do any measure necessary for the salvation of the euro-zone collapse. At the same time Draghi said that the euro zone is much stronger than many people think, and the deficit in the European Union is less than in the United States. In addition, he stressed that the last EU summit was very productive. According to Draghi, first and foremost, you must install the banking supervision, which is well modeled. At the same time to exit from the crisis need to do more integrated euro area.

After the comments Draghi's readiness to support the ECB's euro yield on the 10-year bonds had fallen under the Spanish mark of 7%, while the euro rebounded from morning lows and slumped to around $ 1.2290.

Earlier, the euro declined after it became known that the international rating agency Moody's Investors Service downgraded the rating of 17 German banks to "negative."

EUR/USD
Offers   $1.2275/80, $1.2230, $1.2210, $1.2200, $1.216-75
Bids  $1.2115/10,  $1.2095/90, $1.2075/70, $1.2040, $1.2010/00

EUR/JPY
Offers    Y97.50, Y97.30/35, Y97.00, Y96.50  
Bids  Y95.60, Y95.20/15, Y94.50

AUD/USD
Offers    $1.0500, $1.04500
Bids  $1.0370/65, $1.0340, $1.0300, $1.0260

EUR/GBP
Offers    stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7855  
Bids stg0.7825/20, stg0.7805/00, stg0.7780/75

USD/JPY
Offers   Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.45/50
Bids Y77.90, Y77.50

GBP/USD

Offers   $1.5640/50, $1.5625/30, $1.5600, $1.5575/85, $1.5515/20, $1.5500/05

Bids $1.5455/50, $1.5395/90

Resistance 3: $ 1.5773 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5715 (Jul 19, 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5615 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5579

Support 1: $ 1.5460 (Jul 25 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Support 3: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2400 (July 6 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2320 (area of July 17, 19 high)

Resistance 1 $ 1.2260 (July 13 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2212

Support 1: $ 1.2115 (session low)

Support 1: $ 1.2040 (July 23 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

European stocks fell as companies from Telefonica SA to Alcatel-Lucent SA and Unilever reported earnings.

European stocks fell for a fourth day yesterday as reports showed the U.K. economy shrank the most in three years last quarter, German business confidence declined more than forecast, and U.S. new-house sales unexpectedly fell last month.

Telefonica dropped 5.8 percent to 8.16 euros after the company scrapped a 1.50 euro-a-share dividend for 2012 and said it will resume half of the payout toward the end of next year, citing an “extremely challenging” economic environment. The move will save the company an estimated 10.2 billion euros ($12.4 billion).

Alcatel-Lucent sank 9 percent to 80 euro cents after France’s largest network-equipment supplier announced job cuts as part of a plan to save an additional 750 million euros. The company’s net loss, its first in five quarters, was 254 million euros, or 11 cents a share, compared with net income of 43 million euros, or 2 cents, a year earlier.

FTSE 100 5,483.75 -14.57 -0.26%        

CAC 40  3,073.62   -8.12 -0.26%

DAX 6,340.48         -66.04 -1.03%    

-- EZ has done better than US and Japan on inflation

-- EZ has degree social cohesion vs US and Japan

-- EZ progress last 6 months has been extraordonary

•  

  -- E2.5bln of May 2014 CTZ at avg yield 4.86% (4.71%), cover 1.78 (1.65)

- Without confidence finance is nothing

- Will focus on key risks to finance system as whole

- Reforms are vital to sustaining London as financial centre

EUR/USD $1.2010, $1.2050, $1.2060, $1.2100, $1.2110, $1.2140, $1.2170, $1.2180, $1.2200

USD/JPY Y77.75, Y78.00, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.7800, stg0.7900

USD/CHF Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0305, $1.0350

Asian stocks headed for the first advance in five days after a drop in U.S. new home sales fueled speculation the Federal Reserve may take new steps to spur growth, boosting demand for growth-sensitive shares.

Nikkei 225 8,443.1 +77.20 +0.92%

S&P/ASX 200 4,147.7 +23.75 +0.58%

Shanghai Composite 2,126 -10.15 -0.47%

Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage by market value, advanced 5.7 percent, leading gains among financial firms, on a plan to name a new chief executive officer amid an insider-trading scandal.

Qantas Airways Ltd. rose 9.6 percent in Sydney on a report the carrier was close to forming a long-haul alliance.

Olympus Corp. jumped 9.6 percent after Terumo Corp., a Japanese medical device maker, proposed to invest 50 billion yen ($639 million) in the camera maker and merge with it.

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen, after a five-day decline against the backdrop of a member of the Board of the ECB statement on the provision of the European Fund for Saving the banking license.

Also, the single currency has strengthened against most of the 16 most traded currencies, as the profitability of Spanish and Italian bonds fell against the backdrop of optimism, as the European Stability Fund will help to curb the debt crisis in the region. Yield of 10-year bond fell to Spain's 25 basis points to 7.38% level, while the Italian has declined by 15 basis points to 6.45%. The euro rose against the dollar after data showed that sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in June. The pound fell sharply against the dollar, which was caused by the publication of data on GDP, according to which the UK economy is shrinking the third consecutive quarter.

The Canadian dollar has appreciated significantly during the day against the dollar, updating the previous day at least, that was caused by weak data from USA.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for a four-day loss, amid concern Europe’s crisis is worsening and as the International Monetary Fund said China’s economy faces significant downside risks.

Nikkei 225 8,365.9 -122.19 -1.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,123.9 -9.33 -0.23%

Shanghai Composite 2,136.15 -10.44 -0.49%

Suppliers to Apple Inc. tumbled after the company reported earnings that missed estimates.

Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., an operator of ports and retail chains that gets 55 percent of its revenue in Europe, fell 2.4 percent in Hong Kong.

Toshiba Corp. paced losses among Apple suppliers. Sony Corp., Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, dropped to the lowest since 1980 after a report showed Japan had an unexpected trade surplus in June.

Gome Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd., China’s second-biggest electronics retailer, plunged to an all-time low in Hong Kong after forecasting a first-half loss.

00:10  Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

The dollar traded 0.3 percent from an eight-week low against the yen before U.S. data that may add to signs of an economic slowdown, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve will expand stimulus and debase the currency. U.S. reports today are forecast to show slowing durable- goods orders and pending home sales. U.S. orders for durable goods probably rose 0.3 percent in June after a 1.3 percent gain in May, according to economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey taken before the Commerce Department releases the figures today. The National Association of Realtors may say today its index of pending home purchases gained 0.3 percent in June, following a 5.9 percent jump in May, a separate poll showed.

The euro weakened before data that economists said will signal retail sales in Italy declined and Spain’s unemployment rate climbed, adding to evidence of how Europe’s debt crisis is weighing on the real economy.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened for a second day after the Reserve Bank left its official cash rate at 2.5 percent for an 11th-straight time at a meeting today. The economy should “grow modestly over the next few years,” central bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement. The rate decision was forecast by all 16 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, retreating from yesterday's high.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to yesterday's lows.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair was trading near yesterday's low.

European events for Thursday start at 0600GMT with German import prices, which are expected to come in at -0.9% m/m, 1.9% y/y. The German GfK measure of consumer confidence follows at 0610GMT and is expected to edge down to a reading of 5.7. US data starts at 1230GMT with both the weekly Jobless Claims and June Durable Goods data. US data continues at 1400GMT with NAR Pending Home Sales, while at the same time, US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual recommendations. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage data then follows, at 1430GMT. Kansas City Fed Production data for July follows at 1500GMT, while late data also sees the 2030GMT release of weekly M2 money supply data.

Resistance 3: Y79.20 (Jul 17 low, MA (50) D1)

Resistance 2: Y78.80 (Jul 20 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.50 (Jul 23 low)

Current price: Y78.13

Support 1: Y77.95 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9975 (Jul 24 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9915 (high of the U.S. session on Jul 25)

Current price: Chf0.9895

Support 1: Chf0.9865 (Jul 25 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9830/45 (61.8% FIBO Chf0.9975-Chf0.9745, MA (200) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9800 (76.4% FIBO Chf0.9975-Chf0.9745)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5580/90 (MA (200) H1, MA (50) D1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5550 (Jul 24-25 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5520 (high of the U.S. session on Jul 25)

Current Price: $ 1.5475

Support 1: $ 1.5455 (Jul 25 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Support 3: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2255 (76.4% FIBO $1.2040-$1.2325)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2200/15 (MA (200) H1, 61.8% FIBO $1.2040-$1.2325)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2170 (Jul 25 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2135

Support 1: $ 1.2110 (low of the U.S. session on Jul 25)

Support 2: $ 1.2040 (Jul 24 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,582 +11 +0.68%

Oil 92.30 +2.43 +2.70%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,365.9 -122.19 -1.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,123.95 -9.28 -0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,136.15 -10.44 -0.49%

FTSE 100 5,498.32 -0.91 -0.02%

CAC 40 3,081.74 +7.06 +0.23%

DAX 6,406.52 +16.11 +0.25%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2147 +0,71%

GBP/USD $1,5493 -0,07%

USD/CHF Chf0,9884 -0,72%

USD/JPY Y78,14 -0,03%

EUR/JPY Y94,92 +0,68%

GBP/JPY Y121,05 -0,10%

AUD/USD $1,0309 +0,83%

NZD/USD $0,7907 +0,81%

USD/CAD C$1,0154 -0,61%

00:10 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey August 5.8 5.9

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y June +2.9% +2.9%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders June +1.1% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation June +0.4% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense June +1.6% -0.5%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 386 381

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) June +5.9% +0.8%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y June +0.2% 0.0%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y June -0.1% 0.0%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y July -0.6% -0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y July -0.6% -0.6%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y June +3.6% +1.2%