Forex-novosti i prognoze od 23-07-2012

Euro fell below the two-year low against the dollar as increasing concern about the fact that European leaders are not able to take control of the debt crisis in the region. The euro also fell to 11-year low against the yen. Former Japanese finance minister for international affairs Takehiko Nakao said that officials will take decisive steps to strengthen the yen, if necessary.

The growth of the yen and U.S. dollar was caused by the fact that many investors looking for safer assets. According to information, six Spanish regions can seek help from the central government, which caused a record increase in yield of 10-year Spanish bonds.

The dollar rose against most major currencies in anticipation of GDP data, which will be published this week.

The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level for 11 days against the U.S. dollar on speculation that the debt crisis in Europe is deteriorating, and the yield on Spanish bonds rose above 7.5 percent. Reducing against most other currencies, was also caused by lower oil prices. In this regard, the yield on 10-year bonds of Canada reached a record low level.

European stocks plunged the most in three months as concern grew that Greece will default and more Spanish regions will follow Valencia in seeking a bailout.

BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and HSBC Holdings Plc contributed the most to a selloff by a gauge of bank shares. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, retreated 2.8 percent as a policy maker in China warned of slowing growth. Groupe Eurotunnel SA slumped 5.8 percent after earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Royal Philips Electronics NV, the biggest lighting company, advanced 5 percent as profit increased.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) tumbled 2.5 percent to 251.75 the close of trading, the biggest retreat since April 10.

National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,533.87 -117.90 -2.09%, CAC 40 3,101.53 -92.36 -2.89%, DAX 6,419.33 -210.69 -3.18%

Spanish and Italian lenders reversed their losses after regulators imposed bans on short selling. Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s biggest bank, rose 1 percent to 4.23 euros, erasing a 5.1 percent decline. Bankia SA (BKIA) advanced 7.6 percent to 66.5 euro cents after earlier dropping as much as 9.6 percent. UniCredit SpA (UCG) closed 0.2 percent lower at 2.43 euros, after tumbling as much as 7.5 percent.

Italy’s market regulator, Consob, introduced a week-long ban on short selling shares of some banking and insurance companies because of the “recent performance of stock markets.” Spain banned short-selling of all shares for three months.

Eurotunnel (GET) plunged 5.8 percent to 5.92 euros, the largest decline in 10 months. The company that operates the rail tunnels beneath the English Channel reported first-half earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 205 million euros. That missed the average analyst estimate of 224 million euros in a Bloomberg survey.

Wereldhave NV (WHA) plummeted 13 percent to 45.58 euros, the largest drop since at least 1989. The Dutch real estate company abandoned its dividend targets for this year and next as Chief Executive Officer Hans Pars quit.

Philips climbed 5 percent to 17.03 euros, the biggest gain this year. The company reported an increase in second-quarter profit as Chief Executive Officer Frans van Houten extended a savings program into a second year.

Crude oil futures fell 3% Monday as fears that Spain is moving to the rescue, and the debt crisis in the euro area spreads, led to investors flocked to safer assets, which are now speaking the dollar and U.S. debt. Oil prices are falling the second consecutive session, as according to the Central Bank of Spain's economy will decline further in the second quarter.

Also, the reduction of oil has affected the information about the Spanish bond yields reached a new record high, as Spain and Italy decided to ban short selling of shares, as prices fell. We also learned that the creditors will meet in Greece this week, as there are concerns about the plan of salvation.

Fears of European debt crisis overshadows all other perspectives, which negatively affects the demand for commodities, especially oil.

Futures price for September delivery on the U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX dropped and now stands at $ 89.05 a barrel.

Futures price for delivery in September at the North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent dropped to $ 103.98 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

U.S. stocks fell on concern Europe’s debt crisis is deepening and as a Chinese central-bank adviser said economic growth may slow further.

Currently:

Dow 12,666.55 -156.02 -1.22%
Nasdaq 2,872.09 -53.21 -1.82%
S&P 500 1,343.35 -19.31 -1.42%

Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday as concerns over Spain's financial health pushed the euro to two-year lows against the dollar, pressured stock markets and drove Spanish borrowing costs to euro-era highs.

Gold recovered from lows with the euro after the International Monetary Fund said it will start discussions with the Greek authorities on July 24 on how to bring Greece's economic programme back on track, but remains under heavy pressure from losses in the euro and stock markets.

From a technical perspective, gold is set to find support around $1,559/1,560, according to analysts who study past price patterns to determine the future direction of trade. Prices have held within a $1,525-1,675 range for more than three months.

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust dropped for a fourth consecutive week after a 2.4 tonne outflow on Friday, down 15 tonnes, their biggest weekly decline since late December.

Gold demand from major consumers India and China also remained weak, analysts said.

August gold futures on the COMEX today fell by $ 8.2 and now stands at 1574.6 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1624 (high of June)

Resistance of 2:1614 (resistance line from Jun 6)

Resistance of 1:1600 (area of Jul 10 and 17 highs)

Current Price: 1576.00

Support 2:1564 (support line from May 16, session low)

Support 2: 1548 (low of June)

Support 3: 1527 (low of May)

Resistance 3:92,00 (Jul 20 high)

Resistance 2:90,40 (Jul 20 low)

Resistance 1:89,20 (intraday high)

Current Price: 88.63

Support 1:87,60 (session low, MA (200) for H1)

Support 2:87,10 (Jul 17 low)

Support 3:86,20 (Jul 16 low, MA (50) for D1)

Resistance of 3:1375 (high of July)

Resistance of 2:1356 (session high)

Resistance of 1:1348 (MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: 1333.35

Support 1:1330 (Jul 13 low, MA (50) for D1)

Support 2:1320 (low of July, 50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)

Support 3:1313 (MA (200) for D1)

Комментарии: фьючерс приближается область к МА(50) для D1. Преодоление данной поддержки откроет дорогу к области июльских минимумов и далее МА(200) для D1.

EUR/USD $1.2100, $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2290, $1.2300

USD/JPY Y78.35, Y78.70, Y78.85, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5605

AUD/USD $1.0315, $1.0390, $1.0400

An IMF mission will start discussions with the country's authorities on July 24 on how to bring Greece's economic program, which is supported by IMF financial assistance, back on track.

U.S. stock futures declined amid concern Europe’s debt crisis is deepening and after a Chinese central-bank adviser said growth may slow further.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,508.32 -161.55 -1.86%
Hang Seng 19,053.47 -587.33 -2.99%
Shanghai Composite 2,141.4 -27.24 -1.26%
FTSE  5,518.6 -133.17 -2.36%
CAC  3,109.2 -84.69 -2.65%
DAX 6,433.86 -196.16 -2.96%
Crude oil: $88.26 (-3,89%)
Gold 1566.70 (-1.02%)

• -- E3.993bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.020% (-0.015%), cover 2.32 (2.36)

  -- E1.490bln 6-month BTF, avg yield 0.002% (-0.011%), cover 3.12 (4.05)

  -- E1.992bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.018% (-0.002%), cover 2.09 (3.27)

The euro weakened to a more than two-year low against the dollar, falling below $1.21, as concern mounted that European leaders are failing to gain control of the region’s debt crisis.

The 17-nation currency dropped to less than its lifetime average versus the dollar, and slid to an 11-year low against the yen. Japan’s currency strengthened against all 16 of its major counterparts as investors sought safer assets. Six Spanish regions may ask for aid from the central government, El Pais reported, propelling the nation’s 10-year bond yield to a euro- era high.

The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond jumped to as much as 7.565 percent, the highest since the euro was created, while the cost of insuring against default on the nation’s sovereign debt also soared to a record before it auctions bills tomorrow.

The shared currency also dropped before the troika of Greece’s international creditors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- arrive in Athens tomorrow amid doubts the nation will meet its commitments and reluctance among euro-area states to put up more funds should it fail.

The IMF will stop paying rescue aid to Greece as it is already clear the nation will not be able to fulfill its promise to cut debt to 120 percent of annual economic growth in euro terms by 2020, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unidentified EU officials.

EUR / USD: pair dropped to $ 1.2080

GBP / USD: pair fell to $ 1.5516

USD / JPY: a pair in the session fell to Y77.93 low and then rose to the level of Y78.30

EUR/USD
Offers  $1.2275/80, $1.2240/50, $1.2205/10, $1.2175/80,
Bids  $1.2080/75, $1.2050, $1.2000, $1.1985/80

EUR/JPY
Offers  Y96.00, Y95.20, Y95.00, Y94.80
Bids  Y94.25/20, Y94.00, Y93.60, Y93.00

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0340
Bids $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0180/75

EUR/GBP
Offers  stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7845/55
Bids  stg0.7785/80, stg0.7755/50, stg0.7735/30, stg0.7700/690

USD/JPY
Offers  Y79.00, Y78.50, Y78.20
Bids Y77.50, Y77.20, Y77.00

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.5769/700, $1.5640/50, $1.5600, $1.5575/85

Bids  $1.5520, $1.5500, $1.5480/70, $1.5450

Resistance 3: Y79.02 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: Y78.85 (Jul 19 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.50 (session high)

Current price: Y78.24

Support 1: Y77.93 (session low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0070 (Nov 2010 high)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9940 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9909

Support 1: Chf0.9860 (low of U.S. session on Jul 20)

Support 2: Chf0.9815 (MA (200) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9745 (Jul 17, 19 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5715 (Jul 19, 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5615 (session high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5570 (MA (200) H1)

Current Price: $ 1.5540

Support 1: $ 1.5520 (Jul 17 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5515 (area of session low and Jul 16 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2320 (area of July 17, 19 high)

Resistance 2 $ 1.2235 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2180 (high of U.S. session on July 20)

Current Price: $ 1.2121

Support 1: $ 1.2080 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2040 (Jun 10 low)

Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)

European stocks had the biggest two- day drop since April as concern grew that Greece will default and more Spanish regions will follow Valencia in seeking a bailout.

The troika of Greece’s international creditors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- will arrive in Athens tomorrow amid doubts that the country will meet its bailout commitments. German Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler said he’s “very skeptical” European leaders will be able to rescue Greece.

The IMF will stop paying further rescue aid to Greece, making the country’s insolvency in September more likely, Der Spiegel magazine reported yesterday, citing unidentified European Union officials.

Spain’s Balearic Islands and Catalonia are among six Spanish regions that may ask for aid from the central government after Valencia sought a bailout on July 20, El Pais reported, without citing anyone. Castilla-La-Mancha, Murcia, the Canary Islands and possibly Andalusia are also having difficulty funding themselves and some of these regions are studying plans to access the recently created emergency-loan fund that Valencia said it would use last week, the newspaper said.

A gauge of banks in the Stoxx 600 fell 3.1 percent, for the biggest drop among 19 industry groups. BNP Paribas, France’s biggest lender, slid 4.7 percent to 27.18 euros. Banco Santander SA declined 3.4 percent to 4.05 euros, extending last week’s 10 percent plunge. Bankia SA lost 7.9 percent to 57 euro cents.

BHP Billiton fell 3.3 percent to 1,757.5 pence. Petropavlovsk Plc, a producer of gold in Russia, retreated 4.5 percent to 382.5 pence. Lonmin Plc, the third- biggest platinum producer, sank 4.2 percent 678 pence.

Philips climbed 7.6 percent to 17.45 euros. The company reported an increase in second-quarter profit as Chief Executive Officer Frans van Houten extends a savings program into a second year. Earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and other one-time items rose to 450 million euros compared with 371 million euros a year earlier, the company said.

FTSE 100 5,559.19 -92.58 -1.64%        

CAC 40 3,128.32    -65.57 -2.05%        

DAX 6,519.27         -110.75 -1.67%          

• Germany sold E2.703bln 12-month Bubill at average yield of -0.054% (0.0191%), cover 2.3 (2.8), retains 9.9% or 297mln.

GBP / USD has updated intraday low $ 1.5520, having absorbed the stops at $ 1.5525.

EUR/USD $1.2100, $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2290, $1.2300

USD/JPY Y78.35, Y78.70, Y78.85, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5605

AUD/USD $1.0315, $1.0390, $1.0400

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest two-day loss in seven weeks, after a Chinese central bank adviser forecast economic growth will slow further and on renewed concern that Greece may not meet its bailout targets.

Nikkei 225 8,508.32 -161.55 -1.86%

S&P/ASX 200 4,128.9 -70.22 -1.67%

Shanghai Composite 2,141.39 -27.24 -1.26%

Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 47 percent of its revenue in China and Europe, lost 2.4 percent in Seoul.

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, slumped 4.6 percent, its biggest drop since November.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, lost 2.6 percent in Sydney amid concern about global economic growth.

Gauges of volatility in Asia rose, reflecting increasing risk aversion among investors.

01:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter II -0.3% +0.3% +0.5%

01:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter II +1.4% +1.0% +1.1%

The euro weakened to the least versus the yen since November 2000 and to a two-year low against the dollar on concern European policy makers aren’t doing enough to resolve the region’s financial crisis.

The 17-nation shared currency added to its three-week loss versus the greenback as Spain said the recession will extend into next year as the region of Valencia prepared to seek a rescue from the central government. Spanish borrowing costs approached a euro-era record high even after European finance ministers gave full approval to an aid package of as much as 100 billion euros ($122 billion) for the nation’s banks.

Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed to as high as 7.284 percent, almost matching the 7.285 percent it touched a month ago. The 7 percent level was the threshold for global bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Debt due in 2020 issued by Catalonia, the biggest Spanish regional economy, yielded 13.24 percent.

The yen and dollar rose against most major currencies as investors sought safety, while the euro fell against most.

The euro headed for a third weekly loss against the dollar and a fourth weekly drop versus the yen.

The pound appreciated 0.3 percent to 77.88 pence per euro and reached 77.71 pence, the strongest level since October 2008. The U.K. currency fell 0.6 percent to $1.5626.

Asian stocks fell, paring a weekly gain in the benchmark regional index, amid speculation China will keep property curbs in place and as U.S. economic reports missed estimates.

Nikkei 225 8,669.87 -125.68 -1.43%

S&P/ASX 200 4,199.1 -7.59 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,165.01 -19.83 -0.91%

Toyota Motor Corp., Asia’s top carmaker by market value, fell 1.7 percent in Tokyo.

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd., a developer that makes all its revenue from China, slumped 2.1 percent in Hong Kong after Xinhua News Agency said the government won’t relax property control policies.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., a contract manufacturer of chips, declined 1.3 percent in Taipei after saying revenue will “dip” in the fourth quarter because of a weak global economy.

Resistance 3: Y79.10 (Jul 18 high, MA (200) D1)

Resistance 2: Y78.80 (Jul 20 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.55 (session high)

Current price: Y78.20

Support 1: Y78.00/10 (area of Jun 4-5 lows)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0065 (Dec 1 high)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9950 (Dec 3 high 2010)

Current price: Chf0.9915

Support 1: Chf0.9895 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9855 (low of U.S. session on Jul 20)

Support 3: Chf0.9810/20 (Jul 19 low, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high, MA (100) D1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5735 (Jun 19 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5615 (session high, MA (50) D1)

Current Price: $ 1.5570

Support 1: $ 1.5555 (Jul 17 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5515 (Jul 16 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2240 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2280 (high of U.S. session on July 20)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2135 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.2115

Support 1: $ 1.2100 (Jun 10 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2040 (Jun 10 low)

Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)

01:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter II -0.3% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter II +1.4% +1.0%

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence July -19.8 -20.0

23:00 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks -