Forex-novosti i prognoze od 24-07-2012

Euro drops the fifth day against the yen, while showing the longest decline since May amid speculation that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is worsening.

Also on the decline of the single currency affect the weak data on the index of business activity in the euro area. The European currency fell to its lowest level against the yen over the past 11 years.

The euro fell below 1.21 against the dollar after ratings agency Moody 's downgraded the credit rating outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg with a "stable" to "negative", amid escalating worries about the crisis in the region.

The Swiss franc also continued to decline, and had almost approached parity with the dollar for the first time since December 2010 against the backdrop of the financial crisis in Europe.

The Australian dollar rose against the dollar for the first time three days after the growth of China's manufacturing index strengthened the export prospects for the country.

Canadian dollar against the dollar during the U.S. session shows a rapid and steady growth, even despite the fact that the published data on retail sales were above expectations.

European stocks retreated for a third day as Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit outlook for Germany and a measure of manufacturing in the Richmond region of the U.S. plunged.

Elan Corp. tumbled 11 percent after the results of a study for an Alzheimer’s drug failed to show that patients’ symptoms improved. Royal KPN NV (KPN) fell 7.3 percent as the company cut its dividend forecast by 61 percent after quarterly net income missed analysts’ estimates. Swatch Group AG (UHR) gained 2.3 percent after posting sales and profit that increased. Man Group Plc (EMG) surged 4.1 percent after saying it will double its cost cuts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) slipped 0.5 percent to 250.57 at the close of trading in London.

Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg had the outlooks for their Aaa credit ratings lowered to negative by Moody’s after markets closed yesterday. The ratings company cited the risk that Greece will leave the 17-nation euro currency and the “increasing likelihood” of collective support for European countries such as Spain and Italy, according to a statement.

German manufacturing and services output contracted in July more than economists had forecast. An index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry declined to 43.3 this month from 45 in June.

National benchmark indexes in 15 of the 18 western-European markets retreated today.

FTSE 100 5,499.23 -34.64 -0.63% CAC 40 3,074.68 -26.85 -0.87% DAX 6,390.41 -28.92 -0.45%

STMicroelectronics NV (STM) dropped 4.3 percent to 3.77 euros, after earlier declining as much as 7 percent. Europe’s largest chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue will grow by about 2.5 percent, indicating sales will miss analysts’ estimates amid weaker demand for the company’s products.

Endesa SA (ELE) fell 5.8 percent to 11.63 euros.

Swatch rose 2.3 percent to 369.90 Swiss francs. The biggest maker of Swiss watches reported first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates as sales of Omega and Longines timepieces to Chinese consumers increased.

Man Group rallied 4.1 percent to 72 pence. The world’s biggest publicly traded hedge fund manager also said it plans to sell fewer so-called guaranteed products that generate high commissions for employees.

Software AG (SOW) rallied 11 percent to 25.98 euros after the company raised the forecast for its Enterprise Transaction Systems in 2012. Germany’s second-biggest software maker also posted a 46 percent increase in revenue from its Business Process Excellence licenses in the second quarter.

SAP AG (SAP) climbed 3.5 percent to 50.77 euros. The largest maker of business-management software is beating rivals to contracts as companies limit their spending amid slowing economies.

Croda International Plc (CRDA) gained 6.1 percent to 2,364 pence, its lowest price since at least 1989. The maker of cosmetic ingredients reported first-half pretax profit before one-off items of 67.5 million pounds ($105 million). That beat the average estimate of 66.2 million pounds in a survey of analysts

Crude oil futures rose for the first time in three days, which was caused by the situation in Syria, the growth of tension in the Middle East and the data on the production index in China.

Futures rose 0.9% after Israel warned that a military strike by other countries against Syrian chemical weapons can tighten Israel into a regional war. Recall that the price of oil rose to a record $ 41.15 a barrel in October 1990 after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, which led to a reduction in exports from both countries. Futures and then decreased by one third after the U.S. military forces began air attacks on Iraq.

Preliminary data on the production index of China showed that the index rose to its highest value since February this year, but still shows signs of contraction. Yesterday the price of oil has fallen by 4% amid concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.

According to the survey, it is expected that U.S. crude stocks will fall, which will be the fifth consecutive decline and the largest this year. These forecasts are based on the fact that refineries have reduced purchases until the autumn.

According to the median estimate, the reserves will be reduced by 750,000 barrels to 376.6 million level in seven days to 20.

The price of oil fell slightly today after ratings agency Moody 's lowered forecasts for credit ratings in Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, referring to the growth of uncertainty in Europe.

The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now at $ 88.5 per barrel.

September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture increased to $ 103.26 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Resistance of 3:1624 (high of June)

Resistance of 2:1612 (resistance line from Jun 6)

Resistance of 1:1600 (area of Jul 10 and 17 highs)

Current Price: 1577.50

Support 2:1564 (support line from May 16, Jul 23 low)

Support 2: 1548 (low of June)

Support 3: 1527 (low of May)

Gold prices rose after the dollar retreated from highs against the euro. Investors' confidence in the metal began to grow after the unprecedented sales in recent days.

The weakness of the single currency put pressure on gold early in the day. Left German economic data, which were below expectations and changes in rating agency Moody's raised concerns about prospects for Europe's largest economy.

The euro / dollar exchange rate has taken a leading role in determining the direction of movement of gold, as the momentum of political statements just simply dried up.

Investors this month do not see signs that the Fed is ready to implement new measures of monetary policy, which could ignite interest in the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Meanwhile, many traders do not rush to aggressively sell amid continuing concerns about the global economy.

Some investors buy gold and other precious metals that would protect themselves from the economic crisis in general, and especially as a protection against currency fluctuations.

Worries about the banking crisis in Europe in general, significantly affected the price of gold in recent months. Investors looking for safe assets, which was the dollar, which eventually led to an increase in its value against other currencies.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today has grown and now stands at 1577.7 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:90,10 (61,8% FIBO 92,00-87,10)

Resistance 2:89,50 (high of U.S. session on Jul 23, 50,0% FIBO 92,00-87,10)

Resistance 1:88,80 (session high)

Current Price: 88.29

Support 1:87,10 (session lows and Jul 17 low)

Support 2:86,70 (61.8% FIBO 83.50-92.00)

Podderzhka32: 85.80 (MA (50) for D1)

Комментарии: фьючерс консолидируется после вчерашнего снижения. Ключевая поддержка расположена в области 85,80.

Resistance of 3:1375 (high of July)

Resistance of 2:1356 (Jul 23 low)

Resistance of 1:1348 (MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: 1337.75

Support 1:1330 (Jul 13 low, MA (50) for D1)

Support 2:1320 (low of July, 50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)

Support 3:1313 (MA (200) for D1)

Комментарии: фьючерс консолидируется после вчерашнего снижения, оставаясь незначительно выше области МА(50) для D1. Преодоление данной поддержки откроет дорогу к области июльских минимумов и далее МА(200) для D1.

The British pound rose to $ 1.5551 and is currently trading at $ 1.5530. The nearest resistance level of $ 1.5570 (MA (200) H1).

EUR/USD $1.2100, $1.2140, $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2205, $1.2225, $1.2300

USD/JPY  Y78.25, Y78.50

GBP/USD  $1.5525, $1.5660, $1.5325

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0350, $1.0375, $1.0390

AUD/JPY Y82.00

U.S. stock futures fluctuate amid disappointing earnings from several companies and as Moody’s Investors Service’s cut the outlook on Germany’s rating. 

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,488.09 -20.23 -0.24%
Hang Seng 18,903.2 -150.27 -0.79%
Shanghai Composite 2,146.59 +5.19 +0.24%
FTSE  5,530.37 -3.50 -0.06%
CAC  3,101.77 +0.24 +0.01%
DAX 6,421.95 +2.62 +0.04%
Crude oil $88.00 (-0,16%)
Gold $1579.00 (+0.16%)

Data:

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.2 45.6 43.6

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) July 47.9 47.7 50.2

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) July 49.9 50.1 49.7

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.0 45.3 43.3

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.1 45.3 44.1

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) July 47.1 47.3 47.6

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 30.2 31.4 26.7

EUR/USD
Offers   $1.2275/80, $1.2240/50, $1.2200/10, $1.2155-80, $1.2140/45
Bids $1.2060/50,  $1.2000

EUR/JPY
Offers  Y96.00, Y95.60/65, Y95.20
Bids Y93.50

AUD/USD
Offers  $1.0400, $1.0375/80, $1.0350
Bids $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0180/75

EUR/GBP
Offers   stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7845/55, stg0.7825  
Bidsstg0.7785/80, stg0.7755/50, stg0.7735/30, stg0.7700/690

USD/JPY
Offers  Y79.00, Y78.50
Bids Y77.50

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.5735, $1.5690/700, $1.5640/50, $1.5625/30, $1.5600, $1.5575/85, $1.5545/50, $1.5525

Bids $1.5480/70, $1.5455/50

Resistance 3: Y79.02 (Jul 17 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.85 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Y78.50 (Jul 23 high)

Current price: Y78.16

Support 1: Y77.93 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0070 (Nov 2010 high)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9950 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9921

Support 1: Chf0.9890 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9815 (MA (200) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9745 (Jul 17, 19 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5715 (Jul 19, 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5615 (session high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5570 (MA (200) H1)

Current Price: $ 1.5510

Support 1: $ 1.5395 (area of session low and Jul 23 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5460 (Jul 6 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2320 (area of July 17, 19 high)

Resistance 2 $ 1.2220 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2145 (July 23 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2090

Support 1: $ 1.2065 (July 23 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2040 (Jun 10 low)

Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)

European stocks pared their decline, after yesterday completing the biggest two-day drop in eight months.

Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg had the outlooks for their Aaa credit ratings lowered to negative by Moody’s Investors Service after markets closed yesterday. The ratings company cited the risk that Greece will leave the 17-nation euro currency and the “increasing likelihood” of collective support for European countries such as Spain and Italy, according to a statement.

A composite index for the euro area’s manufacturing and services industries held at 46.4 in July.

Elan tumbled 13 percent to 9.63 euros, its biggest slide in almost a year. The company’s experimental Alzheimer’s treatment with Pfizer Inc. and Johnson & Johnson failed to improve symptoms of dementia in the first of four pivotal studies testing the drug.

Swatch rose 2.2 percent to 369.50 Swiss francs. The biggest maker of Swiss watches reported first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates as sales of Omega and Longines timepieces to Chinese consumers increased. Net income rose to 720 million francs ($726 million) from 575 million francs a year earlier, the Biel, Switzerland-based company said in a statement.

FTSE 100 5,534.96 +1.09 +0.02%         

CAC 40 3,097.09    -4.44 -0.14%          

DAX 6,409.83         -9.50 -0.15%  

• Sold E3.048bln vs target E2.0-E3.0bln

  -- E1.628bln 3-month T-bill; bid-to-cover 2.94 (2.6)

  -- E1.420bln 6-month T-bill; bid-to-cover 3.02 (2.82)

  Announce average yields:

  -- Sold 3-month T-bill at avg yield 2.434% vs 2.362% prev

  -- Sold 6-month T-bill at avg yield 3.691% vs 3.237% prev

  tail calculations:

  -- 11.6bps for 3-month Letra vs 13.8bps prev

  -- 25.9bps for 6-month Letra vs 13.2bps prev

EUR/USD $1.2100, $1.2140, $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2205, $1.2225, $1.2300

USD/JPY  Y78.25, Y78.50

GBP/USD  $1.5525, $1.5660, $1.5325

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0350, $1.0375, $1.0390

AUD/JPY Y82.00

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses after a private survey showed China’s manufacturing may contract at a slower pace this month and Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit outlook for Germany.

Nikkei 225 8,488.09 -20.23 -0.24%

S&P/ASX 200 4,133.23 +4.29 +0.10%

Shanghai Composite 2,146.59 +5.19 +0.24%

China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd., builder of more than half of the nation’s rail links since 1949, gained 1.8 percent in Hong Kong after signing 20 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) in new contracts.

Nintendo Co., a maker of video-game players that depends on Europe for 34 percent of its sales, dropped 2.1 percent.

SK Telecom Co., the biggest South Korean wireless operator, rose 6 percent in Seoul, after the company’s decision to eliminate some handset subsidies prompted speculation profit will increase.

02:00 China Leading Index June +1.1% +0.1%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI July 48.2 49.5

Euro fell below the two-year low against the dollar as increasing concern about the fact that European leaders are not able to take control of the debt crisis in the region. The euro also fell to 11-year low against the yen. Former Japanese finance minister for international affairs Takehiko Nakao said that officials will take decisive steps to strengthen the yen, if necessary.

The growth of the yen and U.S. dollar was caused by the fact that many investors looking for safer assets. According to information, six Spanish regions can seek help from the central government, which caused a record increase in yield of 10-year Spanish bonds.

The dollar rose against most major currencies in anticipation of GDP data, which will be published this week.

The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level for 11 days against the U.S. dollar on speculation that the debt crisis in Europe is deteriorating, and the yield on Spanish bonds rose above 7.5 percent. Reducing against most other currencies, was also caused by lower oil prices. In this regard, the yield on 10-year bonds of Canada reached a record low level.

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest two-day loss in seven weeks, after a Chinese central bank adviser forecast economic growth will slow further and on renewed concern that Greece may not meet its bailout targets.

Nikkei 225 8,508.32 -161.55 -1.86%

S&P/ASX 200 4,128.9 -70.22 -1.67%

Shanghai Composite 2,141.39 -27.24 -1.26%

Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 47 percent of its revenue in China and Europe, lost 2.4 percent in Seoul.

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, slumped 4.6 percent, its biggest drop since November.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, lost 2.6 percent in Sydney amid concern about global economic growth.

Gauges of volatility in Asia rose, reflecting increasing risk aversion among investors.

European stocks plunged the most in three months as concern grew that Greece will default and more Spanish regions will follow Valencia in seeking a bailout.

BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and HSBC Holdings Plc contributed the most to a selloff by a gauge of bank shares. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, retreated 2.8 percent as a policy maker in China warned of slowing growth. Groupe Eurotunnel SA slumped 5.8 percent after earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Royal Philips Electronics NV, the biggest lighting company, advanced 5 percent as profit increased.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) tumbled 2.5 percent to 251.75 the close of trading, the biggest retreat since April 10.

National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,533.87 -117.90 -2.09%, CAC 40 3,101.53 -92.36 -2.89%, DAX 6,419.33 -210.69 -3.18%

Spanish and Italian lenders reversed their losses after regulators imposed bans on short selling. Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s biggest bank, rose 1 percent to 4.23 euros, erasing a 5.1 percent decline. Bankia SA (BKIA) advanced 7.6 percent to 66.5 euro cents after earlier dropping as much as 9.6 percent. UniCredit SpA (UCG) closed 0.2 percent lower at 2.43 euros, after tumbling as much as 7.5 percent.

Italy’s market regulator, Consob, introduced a week-long ban on short selling shares of some banking and insurance companies because of the “recent performance of stock markets.” Spain banned short-selling of all shares for three months.

Eurotunnel (GET) plunged 5.8 percent to 5.92 euros, the largest decline in 10 months. The company that operates the rail tunnels beneath the English Channel reported first-half earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of 205 million euros. That missed the average analyst estimate of 224 million euros in a Bloomberg survey.

Wereldhave NV (WHA) plummeted 13 percent to 45.58 euros, the largest drop since at least 1989. The Dutch real estate company abandoned its dividend targets for this year and next as Chief Executive Officer Hans Pars quit.

Philips climbed 5 percent to 17.03 euros, the biggest gain this year. The company reported an increase in second-quarter profit as Chief Executive Officer Frans van Houten extended a savings program into a second year.

Resistance 3: Y79.10 (Jul 18 high, MA (200) D1)

Resistance 2: Y78.80 (Jul 20 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.45 (Jul 23 high)

Current price: Y78.26

Support 1: Y77.95 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0065 (Dec 1 high)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9950 (Jul 23 high)

Current price: Chf0.9904

Support 1: Chf0.9885 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9855 (low of U.S. session on Jul 20)

Support 3: Chf0.9810/20 (Jul 19 high, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5595 (MA (50) D1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5580 (Jul 18 low, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5550 (Jul 17 low)

Current Price: $ 1.5527

Support 1: $ 1.5485 (Jul 23 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5390/10 (area of Jul 12-13 lows)

Support 3: $ 1.5340 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2225 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2180 (high of U.S. session Jul 20)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2145 (high Jul 23 and low Jul 20)

Current Price: $ 1.2126

Support 1: $ 1.2105 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2065 (Jul 23 low)

Support 3: $ 1.1925 (Jun 9 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,582 +11 +0.68%

Oil 92.30 +2.43 +2.70%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,508.32 -161.55 -1.86%

S&P/ASX 200 4,128.94 -70.18 -1.67%

Shanghai Composite 2,141.4 -27.24 -1.26%

FTSE 100 5,533.87 -117.90 -2.09%

CAC 40 3,101.53 -92.36 -2.89%

DAX 6,419.33 -210.69 -3.18%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2115  -0,34%

GBP/USD $ 1,5501 -0,76%

USD/CHF Chf0,9911 +0,34%

USD/JPY Y78,32 -0,20%

EUR/JPY Y96,89 +1,53%

GBP/JPY Y121,40 -0,99%

AUD/USD       $1,0256 -1,17%

NZD/USD $0,7877 -1,50%

USD/CAD C$1,0189 +0,63%

02:00 China Leading Index June +1.1% +0.1%

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI July 48.2  49.5

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.2 45.6

07:00France Services PMI (preliminary) July 47.9 47.7

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) July 49.9 50.1

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.0 45.3

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 45.1 45.3

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) July 47.1 47.3

08:30 United Kingdom           BBA Mortgage Approvals June 30.2 31.4

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m May -0.5% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m May -0.3% +0.2%

12:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) July 52.5 52.4

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m May +0.8% +0.6%

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance June 301 20

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln June -657.2 -397.8