Forex-novosti i prognoze od 18-07-2012

• • The market rental housing continues to strengthen

  • Manufacturing activity is increasing in most districts

  • Car sales are supported by sales of cars with low fuel consumption

  • Demand for loans is moderately increased in most districts

  • Reports on agriculture, inconsistent pricing

  • Price pressure is decreased as the fall in energy prices

  • Representatives of business, "cautiously optimistic" about future conditions

  • In many districts marked by slower growth in retail spending

  • In many districts noted a high activity in the tourism, travel

  • Scope of nonfinancial services remained stable

  • Mortgage lending increased in most districts

  • Drought hurt some districts

  • Hot summer weather has reduced retail sales in some regions

  • Tourist activity is high throughout the country, including New York, Florida

  • The drought hurt farmers in the plains states

• • The labor market situation improves, "barely warm" rate

  • Some companies have difficulty finding qualified workers

  • Retail sales rose marginally to A majority of districts

  • Hiring is slow due to financial uncertainty, weak demand

During the American session, the dollar has weakened its position against higher-yielding currencies against the second part of speech Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress. The text of Bernanke repeated a speech the day before. Although Bernanke has stressed the readiness of the Central Bank to act, he refrained from giving any details and did not say whether it would be quantitative easing, and when it is such measures can be taken.

Earlier, the euro declined after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that "the European project" is under threat, and if the policy will work harder, fueling interest in solving the debt crisis in the region, it will remain impossible.

The pound fell against the dollar before the first time in four days after the Bank of England said that there is a possibility of future rate reductions. However, nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee decided unanimously to keep its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5% this month. Seven of the nine members of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England voted in favor of additional incentives at the meeting. Governor of the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King among the other seven members voted to increase asset purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds, as there is reason to inject more cash into the UK economy and stimulate lending to the slowdown in inflation.

The focus of market participants is a publication of a report the Federal Reserve "Beige Book", which is scheduled for 18:00 GMT. Recall that this report provides an overview of the current economic situation in each of the 12 federal districts of the United States. This report is used for the Fed decision on monetary policy at a meeting of Federal Open Market Committee, which will take place in the 2nd week.

European stocks advanced for the third time in four days after lenders including Credit Suisse Group AG reported profits that beat estimates, while minutes showed the Bank of England may reconsider the case for an interest-rate cut.

In the U.K., minutes from the Bank of England’s recent July Monetary Policy meeting showed policy makers voted 7-2 to increase stimulus and said they may reconsider the case for an interest-rate cut after assessing the impact of new lending and liquidity measures on the economy.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne outlined plans to encourage as much as 51 billion pounds ($80 billion) of spending on infrastructure and exports in the latest effort pull the economy out of recession.

National benchmark indexes rose in all western European markets except Finland and Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 1 percent. France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.8 percent and Germany’s DAX advanced 1.6 percent.

Credit Suisse advanced 4.5 percent to 17.91 Swiss francs. The bank announced measures to cut costs and boost capital by 8.7 billion francs ($8.9 billion) after a central bank report last month called for an increase in equity. The cost savings target was increased to 3 billion francs from 2 billion francs, the bank said.

ASML paced gains among European technology companies, rising 6.8 percent to 44.23 euros, as Chief Executive Officer Eric Meurice said on a conference call that he expects a “steady increase in profitability,” even as the producer of machines for chipmakers joined Applied Materials Inc. and Intel Corp. in predicted a weaker chip market.

Nordea rose 2.4 percent to 62.05 kronor after saying second-quarter profit jumped 17 percent as an increase in lending income outweighed higher loan losses. Net income rose to 820 million euros from 698 million euros a year earlier, the Stockholm-based lender said in a statement. That beat the 722 million-euro average estimate of analysts.

Gold prices exhibit high volatility in the background of the final speech of the Fed.

In today's speech to parliament the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank must make transparent and understandable.

At the same time Bernanke said that a sharp drop in crude oil prices over the past few months has led to a decline in inflation in the country. It is expected that the inflation rate this year is 1.2% -1.7%, lower than the planned mark the Fed at 2%.

In addition, Bernanke said the U.S. economy continued its recovery in the first half, but economic activity in the country a little bit weak.

One of the main purposes of the Federal Reserve is to ensure price stability and to achieve "progress" in the labor market. Bernanke said that there are signs of improvement and the QE program was "productive."

At the same time, he emphasized that monetary policy is not a panacea, and fiscal consolidation should be carried out in stages.

August gold futures on the COMEX is trading today in the range of 1567.2 - 1585.7 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1615 (resistance line from Jun 6)

Resistance of 2:1610 (area of Jul 6 high)

Resistance of 1:1600 (area of Jul 10 and 17 highs)

Current Price: 1578.70

Support 2:1562 (support line from May 16)

Support 2: 1548 (low of June)

Support 3: 1527 (low of May)

Oil rose for a sixth day, exceeding $90 a barrel for the first time since May, as U.S. housing starts rose more than forecast and gasoline inventories fell.

Prices advanced along with equities after the Commerce Department reported housing starts rose to a 760,000 annual pace in June. Gasoline stockpiles declined 1.82 million barrels last week, the Energy Department reported. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.2 million.

Oil for August delivery rose to $90.04, the highest level since May 30. Prices are down 9 percent this year.

Brent crude for September settlement increased $1.27, or 1.2 percent, to $105.27 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Resistance 3:95,00 (61,8% FIBO 106,10-77,20)

Resistance 2:91,70 (50,0% FIBO 106,10-77,20, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 1:90,40 (top line of up channel from Jul 12)

Current Price: 89.34

Support 1:87,20 (session low, bottom line of up channel from Jul 12)

Support 2:87,20 (Jul 17 low)

Support 3:86,20 (Jul 16 low, MA (200) for H1)

Resistance of 3:1410 (high of May)

Resistance of 2:1375 (high of July, top line of up channel from Jul 12)

Resistance of 1:1365 (session high)

Current Price: 1361.25

Support 1:1350 (bottom line of up channel from Jul 12)

Support 2:1340 (Jul 17 low)

Support 3:1320 (Jul 12 low, 50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)

Комментарии: фьючерс преодолел МА(100) для D1, выше сессионного максимума дорога открыта к максимумам июля.

EUR/USD $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y79.10

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5425

EUR/GBP stg0.7850, stg0.7865

USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9800, Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0275, $1.0300

U.S. stock futures fell as Intel Corp. (INTC) slumped after cutting its sales forecast and investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of business conditions.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,726.74 -28.26 -0.32%
Hang Seng 19,239.88 -215.45 -1.11%
Shanghai Composite 2,169.1 +7.91 +0.37%
FTSE 5,629.2 +0.11 0.00%
CAC  3,200.66 +23.69 +0.75%
DAX 6,586.05 +8.41 +0.13%
Crude oil $88.81 (-0,46%)
Gold $1568.50 (-1.32%)

Caterpillar (CAT) was downgraded to a Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

Data

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate June 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count June 8.1 7.4 6.9

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate May 8.2% 8.2% 8.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y May +1.4% +1.4% +1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y May +1.8% +1.9% +1.8%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) July -43.4 -42.5

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2340/50, $1.2295/300, $1.2245/50
Bids $1.2215, $1.2175

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5700, $1.5687, $1.5650, $1.5615/25
Bids $1.5550, $1.5535/30, $1.5500, $1.5460

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0400, $1.0380/85
Bids $1.0250, $1.0200

EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.50, Y98.00, Y97.70/75, Y97.50
Bids Y96.50, Y96.00

USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.40
Bids Y78.50

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85
Bids stg0.7810/00

Resistance 3: Y79.40 (MA (200) for H1, July 9 low)

Resistance 2: Y79.30 (July 2 low)

Resistance 1: Y79.12 (July 11 low)

Current price: Y78.97 

Support 1: Y78.68 (July 16 low)

Support 2: Y78.10 (June 5 low)

Support 3: Y77.65 (June 1 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9910 (December 2010 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9875 (July 13 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9850 (July 16 high)

Current price: Chf0.9812

Support 1: Chf0.9750 (July 17 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9715 (38,2% of FIBO (0.9465-0.9875), July 5 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9670/80 (June 28 low, July 6 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (June 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5720 (July 2 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5680/85 (session high, 88.2% for the FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722))

Current Price: $ 1.5606

Support 1: $ 1.5555/60 (50% for the FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722), July 17 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5510/20 (MA (100) for H1, 38.2% for the FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722))

Support 3: $ 1.5460/70 (23.6% of FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722), July 6 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2405 (July 6 high, June 28 low)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2365 (38.2% of FIBO ($ 1.2163-$ 1.2695), a minimum of 5 July)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2490 (July 17 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2237
Support 1: $ 1.2165 (July 12 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2116 (June 2010 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

Indexes rose on a background of positive statements of the banking sector.

Results for January-June 2012 presented a financial group Nordea AB (Sweden). Net income for the period grew by 11% and amounted to 1.596 billion euros against 1.442 billion euros in the same period a year earlier. Net interest revenue increased by 9% to 2.882 billion euros against 2.650 billion euros for the I half of 2011 Nordea Quotes Against this background, increased by 2.6%.

Corporate reporting has supported the European market, even despite the fact that yesterday, Moody 's downgraded the ratings of 13 Italian financial institutions. Also, "negative" outlook have and Italian government bonds.

Current value:

FTSE 100 5,645.75 +16.66 +0.30%

DAX 6,598.51 +20.87 +0.32%

CAC 3,202.35 +25.38 +0.80%

Shares of Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group rose by 0.5%.

It also demonstrates the growth of BHP Billiton to 0.8% and Anglo American and Antofagasta at 0.8% and 0.2% respectively.

EUR/USD $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y79.10

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5425

EUR/GBP stg0.7850, stg0.7865

USD/CHF Chf0.9600, Chf0.9800, Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0275, $1.0300

Asian stocks declined after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned of a “severe” jobs outlook and amid concern Asian companies’ profits are falling. Exporters to the U.S. gained as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is prepared to act to spur growth.

Nikkei 225 8,726.74 -28.26 -0.32%

S&P/ASX 200 4,123.6 -17.20 -0.42%

Shanghai Composite 2,163.96 +2.78 +0.13%

Huaneng Renewables Corp Ltd., an alternative energy company, slumped 14 percent in Hong Kong after saying profit may fall more than 50 percent.

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Yesterday the major currency pairs displayed high volatility in the background speech Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress.

The dollar rose at the outset, as the first reaction of market participants was negative, because no specific signal on the new incentives announced the U.S. economy was not.

Later, however, Bernanke said that the downside risks have increased, have been seen as one of these signals. Bernanke reiterated that "the Fed is ready to take action if necessary" and that "the recovery of the labor market is extremely slow."

The pressure on the euro also had a weak sentiment index data in the business environment of the institute ZEW, which fell to -19.6 in July to -16.9 in June.

The yen fell against the dollar after three days of growth, which was due to the fact that the Minister of Finance of Japan, Azumi said that foreign exchange earnings were "speculative" and officials are prepared to take drastic measures if need be. "

Asian stocks rose for a third day amid optimism policy makers from China to the U.S. will do more to support the world’s largest economies amid a slowdown that prompted the International Monetary Fund to cut its forecast for global growth.

Nikkei 225 8,755 +30.88 +0.35%

Hang Seng 19,460.48 +339.14 +1.77%

S&P/ASX 200 4,140.8 +35.70 +0.87%

Shanghai Composite 2,161.19 +13.23 +0.62%

China Railway Group Ltd. rose 4.4 percent in Hong Kong after the government said it will boost spending on rail lines.

Fraser & Neave Ltd. jumped 4.4 percent in Singapore after Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and its insurance unit received an offer for their stake in the beverage maker.

JX Holdings Inc sank 6 percent in Tokyo after saying it will shut of one of its refineries after finding falsified safety reports.

Resistance 3: Y79.95 (Jul 12 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.40 (Jul 13 high, MA (50) D1, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Y79.15 (Jul 17 high)

Current price: Y79.00

Support 1: Y78.95 (Jul 17 low)

Support 2: Y78.70/78.60 (area of Jun 16 low)

Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9865/75 (area of Jul 12 high and Jul 16 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9850 (Jul 17 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9790 (MA (200) H1)

Current price: Chf0.9782

Support 1: Chf0.9750/60 (area of Jul 17 low and the session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9735 (Jul 10 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9685 (Jul 6 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5720 (Jul 2 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5675 (Jul 17 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5648

Support 1: $ 1.5555 (Jul 17 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5530 (MA (200) H1)

Support 3: $ 1.5515 (Jul 16 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2335 (Jul 10 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2320 (Jul 17 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2279

Support 1: $ 1.2270 (MA (200) H1)

Support 2: $ 1.2190 (Jul 17 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2160/70 (area of Jul 12-16 lows)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,583 -9 -0.57%

Oil 89.17 +0.74 +0.84%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,755 +30.88 +0.35%

Hang Seng 19,460.48 +339.14 +1.77%

S&P/ASX 200 4,140.8 +35.70 +0.87%

Shanghai Composite 2,161.19 +13.23 +0.62%

FTSE 100 5,629.09 -33.34 -0.59%

CAC 40 3,176.97 -2.93 -0.09%

DAX 6,577.64 +11.92 +0.18%

Dow 12,806 +78 +0.62%

Nasdaq 2,910 +13 +0.45%

S&P 500 1,364 +10 +0.74%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2288 +0,15%

GBP/USD $1,5647 +0,10%

USD/CHF Chf0,9774  -0,12%

USD/JPY Y79,08 +0,29%

EUR/JPY Y97,17 +0,43%

GBP/JPY Y123,71 +0,37%

AUD/USD  $1,0302 +0,57%

NZD/USD $0,7968 -0,06%

USD/CAD C$1,0125 -0,22%

08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate June 4.9% 4.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count June 8.1 7.4

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate May 8.2% 8.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y May +1.4% +1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y May +1.8% +1.9%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) July -43.4

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln June 0.780 0.765

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln June 0.708 0.745

14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies -

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -4.7

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Quarter III

15:15 Canada BOC Press Conference -

18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book July

22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June +3.3%