Forex-novosti i prognoze od 17-07-2012

During the American session, the major currency pairs displayed high volatility in the background speech Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress.

The dollar rose at the outset, as the first reaction of market participants was negative, because no specific signal on the new incentives announced the U.S. economy was not.

Later, however, Bernanke said that the downside risks have increased, have been seen as one of these signals. Bernanke reiterated that "the Fed is ready to take action if necessary" and that "the recovery of the labor market is extremely slow."

The pressure on the euro also had a weak sentiment index data in the business environment of the institute ZEW, which fell to -19.6 in July to -16.9 in June.

The yen fell against the dollar after three days of growth, which was due to the fact that the Minister of Finance of Japan, Azumi said that foreign exchange earnings were "speculative" and officials are prepared to take drastic measures if need be. "

European stocks fell for the first time in three days as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s testimony to Congress disappointed investors looking for him to signal fresh stimulus measures.

Recent economic data have had a “generally disappointing tone,” Bernanke said in the first of two days testifying before Congress as part of the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report. He said the Fed is prepared to take further action “as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability,” without offering any specific policy ideas.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released on July 11, showed that two participants supported additional bond purchases, while two others said only a further deterioration in the economy would warrant them.

National benchmark indexes fell in eight of the 18 western European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) declined 0.6 percent and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX rose 0.2 percent.

CSR rallied 34 percent to 292 pence, the biggest increase since it sold shares in 2004. Samsung, the world’s largest mobile-phone maker, agreed to buy the company’s wireless technology unit for $310 million in cash and take a minority stake in the British chip designer.

L’Oreal increased 1.4 percent to 93.33 euros as Credit Suisse Group AG upgraded the shares to neutral from underperform.

Oil fluctuated as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said progress in reducing unemployment is likely to be “frustratingly slow” and as U.S. inventories may have fallen for a fourth week.

Prices were little changed after Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that economic growth slowed during the first half of this year. The Fed is prepared to take further action as appropriate, he said. Oil stockpiles probably declined 1.1 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Crude for August delivery rose to $89.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising to $89.28 and falling to $87.41. Prices have declined 10 percent this year.

Brent oil for September settlement advanced 59 cents to $103.96 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The euro rose to $ 1.2260. The closest resistance level is $ 1.2280, which is close to the MA (200) for H1.

Resistance of 3:1615 (resistance line from Jun 6)

Resistance of 2:1610 (area of Jul 6 high)

Resistance of 1:1600 (area  of session high and Jul 10 high)

Current Price: 1576.90

Support 1:1572 (session low)

Support 2:1560 (support line from May 16)

Support 3: 1548 (low of June)

Resistance 3:95,00 (61,8% FIBO 106,10-77,20)

Resistance 2:91,70 (50,0% FIBO 106,10-77,20, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 1:89,00 (session high)

Current Price: 87.78

Support 1:87,20 (session low)

Support 2:85,80 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3:83,40 (Jul 10 low)

After the speech, Fed chairman in Congress, gold prices have fallen because of the strengthening dollar. Bernanke said increasing downside risks and the willingness to take action in the Federal Reserve if needed. He added that existing at the moment are two main risks - a crisis of the euro area and fiscal situation in the United States. In this case, the level of uncertainty is extremely high, and the recovery in employment is very slow.

August gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1571.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1410 (high of May)

Resistance of 2:1375 (high of July)

Resistance of 1:1356 (area of session high and Jul 10 high, MA(100) for D1)

Current Price: 1341.00

Support 1:1330 (low of Jul 13)

Support 2:1320 (Jul 12 low, 50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)

Support 3:1307 (Jun 28 low, 61,8% FIBO 1265-1375)

• European markets, the economy continues to experience considerable stress

• U.S. economic recovery hampered multiple obstacles

• Employment growth is likely to be "painfully slow"

• Fiscal policy of the U.S., the uncertainty of harm to economic recovery

• Euro crisis hurt global economic activity, United States

• The confidence of households has remained relatively low

• The housing market shows signs of moderate improvement

• The growth of household spending continues, the pace may slow

• The production, reduced costs companies

• GDP growth in Q2 is likely to be below 2%

EUR/USD $1.2190, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.15

GBP/USD $1.5600

EUR/GBP  stg0.7850

USD/CHF Chf0.9800, Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300

U.S. stock futures rose amid bets Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hint at more stimulus during testimony to Congress.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,755 +30.88 +0.35%
Hang Seng 19,455.33 +333.99 +1.75%
Shanghai Composite 2,161.19 +13.23 +0.62%
FTSE  5,643.94 -18.49 -0.33%
CAC  3,194.45 +14.55 +0.46%
DAX 6,596.06 +30.34 +0.46%
Crude oil $89.01 (+0,66%)
Gold 0.26% $1587.50

Walt Disney (DIS) was upgraded to a Buy from Neutral at Bank of America Merrill.
Home Depot (HD) was downgraded to a Neutral from Buy  at Janney Capital Markets.

Data

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +2.4% -0.6%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June +22.4% +18.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m June -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y June +2.8% +2.7% +2.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y June +2.2% +2.3% +2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m June 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y June +3.1% +3.0% +2.8%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y June +3.1% +3.1% +2.8%

09:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment July -16.9 -14.5 -19.6

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment July -20.1 -18.3 -22.3

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter July

During the session, the dollar declines against the euro amid speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hint at an additional stimulus in his speech, which will be held today. Bernanke will deliver a semi-annual report on the economy and monetary policy. The U.S. currency fell against most major fall after retail sales unexpectedly yesterday. Also negative for the dollar has added the statement made by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City Esther George, who said that the U.S. economy probably will not grow much faster than 2% this year.

Recall that Bernanke's policies after the last Fed meeting, which took place on June 20 said: "If we do not see a further improvement in the labor market, we are ready to take additional measures if necessary. Additional asset purchases will be among the measures that we will certainly

The euro showed growth against the euro during the session, but declined after weak data out of sentiment index in the business environment of the institute ZEW, which fell to -19.6 in July to -16.9 in June.

The yen declined during the session against the dollar, after three days of growth. This was due to the fact that the Minister of Finance of Japan, Azumi said that foreign exchange earnings were "speculative" and officials are ready to take decisive action if we must.

Australian dollar during the session, trading in narrow range after significant growth in the early afternoon, which was caused by the publication of minutes of meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Q2 EPS of $1.30 vs cons $1.29. Revenue of $16.5B (-0.7% Y/Y). Shares -1.10% premarket.
Coca-Cola (KO): Q2 EPS of $1.22 vs cons $1.19. Revenue of $13.08B (+3% Y/Y). Shares +0.64% premarket.
Goldman Sachs (GS): Q2 EPS of $1.78 vs cons $1.18. Revenue of $6.62B. Shares +1.76% premarket.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2400/05, $1.2380, $1.2350/60, $1.2320/30
Bids $1.2255/50, $1.2210/00

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750, $1.5700, $1.5687
Bids $1.5610/00, $1.5570, $1.5535/30, $1.5500

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0400, $1.0380/85, $1.0350
Bids $1.0250, $1.0200, $1.0180/75

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7920/30, stg0.7895/900, stg0.7880/85
Bids stg0.7810/00

EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.50, Y98.00, Y97.70/75, Y97.50
Bids Y96.70/65, Y96.50, Y96.00

USD/JPY
Offers Y79.75/80, Y79.50, Y79.40
Bids  Y78.50, Y78.00

Resistance 3: Y79.40 (MA (200) for H1, July 9 low)

Resistance 2: Y79.30 (July 2 low)

Resistance 1: Y79.12 (July 11 low)

Current price: Y79.01

Support 1: Y78.60 (June 15 low)

Support 2: Y78.10 (June 5 low)

Support 3: Y77.65 (June 1 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9910 (December 2010 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9875 (July 13 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9790 (session high, July 16 low)

Current price: Chf0.9770

Support 1: Chf0.9735 (July 10 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9715 (38,2% of FIBO (0.9465-0.9875), July 5 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9670/80 (June 28 low, July 6 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (June 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5720 (July 2 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5680/85 (session high, 88.2% for the FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722))

Current Price: $ 1.5634

Support 1: $ 1.5510/20 (MA (100) for H1, 38.2% for the FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722))

Support 2: $ 1.5460/70 (23.6% of FIBO ($ 1.5395-$ 1.5722), July 6 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5395 (July 12 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2490 (61.8% at FIBO ($ 1.2163-$ 1.2695))
Resistance 2: $ 1.2405 (July 6 high, June 28 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2365 (38.2% of FIBO ($ 1.2163-$ 1.2695), a minimum of 5 July)
Current Price: $ 1.2294
Support 1: $ 1.2165 (July 12 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2116 (June 2010 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

European markets were trading in the green zone amid speculation about stimulating the economy by the Fed.

The two-day performance of Ben Bernanke is scheduled for today and tomorrow. Semi-annual report will be submitted to the Federal Reserve on the economy and monetary policy. Expected to be announced more radical monetary stimulus measures and support the economy.

Today we have published data on the index of sentiment in the business environment of the ZEW institute in July. In German figure was -19.6 (-14.5 at the forecast), -22.3 for the euro area (the forecast of -18.3).

At the moment:

FTSE 100 5,648.86 -13.57 -0.24%

CAC 40 3,194.68 +14.78 +0.46%

DAX 6,594.12 +28.40 +0.43%

Shares of Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group rose 0.92% and 0,23%, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas - 1.14% and 0.63%, paper, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank fell 0.63% and 0.65 %.

Shares of chipmaker CSR soared by 37.1% due to Samsung Electronics plans to buy mobile business CSR approximately $ 300 million

EUR/USD $1.2100, $1.2190, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y79.00, Y79.15

EUR/GBP stg0.0.7970

USD/CHF Chf0.9800, Chf0.9900

AUD/USD $1.0250

Asian stocks rose for a third day amid optimism policy makers from China to the U.S. will do more to support the world’s largest economies amid a slowdown that prompted the International Monetary Fund to cut its forecast for global growth.

Nikkei 225 8,755 +30.88 +0.35%

Hang Seng 19,460.48 +339.14 +1.77%

S&P/ASX 200 4,140.8 +35.70 +0.87%

Shanghai Composite 2,161.19 +13.23 +0.62%

China Railway Group Ltd. rose 4.4 percent in Hong Kong after the government said it will boost spending on rail lines.

Fraser & Neave Ltd. jumped 4.4 percent in Singapore after Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and its insurance unit received an offer for their stake in the beverage maker.

JX Holdings Inc sank 6 percent in Tokyo after saying it will shut of one of its refineries after finding falsified safety reports.

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +2.4% -0.6%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June +22.4% +18.4%

The dollar fell against most major peers amid speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hint at further monetary easing in testimony today. Bernanke will deliver his semiannual report on the economy and monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee. He will testify to the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow.

The greenback slid for a third day versus the euro after an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales rekindled prospects the Fed will introduce additional steps to support the world’s largest economy. A Labor Department report may show today that the consumer- price index was unchanged last month from May when it slid 0.3 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. retail sales fell 0.5 percent in June, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday, whereas economists had forecast a 0.2 percent gain..

The 17-nation euro was 0.2 percent from the lowest in more than three years against the pound before German data that may signal deteriorating investor confidence.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research may say today that its index of German investor and analyst expectations slid to minus 20 this month, according to the median estimate of economists. That would be the lowest since January and down from minus 16.9 in June. The gauge aims to predict economic developments six months in advance.

Australia’s dollar climbed as Asian stocks rose and after the Reserve Bank released today minutes of this month’s meeting

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +2.4% -0.6%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June +22.4% +18.4%

The dollar fell against the yen and erased gains versus the euro after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month, adding to speculation the Federal Reserve will take further steps to bolster the economy.

The euro reached a six-week low against the yen as the inflation rate in the currency region last month matched the lowest since February 2011. The yen rose versus most of its major counterparts as the Dollar Index erased gains before Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies to Congress tomorrow on the state of the economy.

The Dollar Index erased gains after a Commerce Department report showed U.S. retail sales dropped 0.5 percent in June. The gauge, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, fell 0.1 percent to 83.235. It increased 0.4 percent earlier.

Asian stocks rose after Premier Wen Jiabao said China will increase measures to support growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Gains were limited amid concern about falling profits for Asian companies.

Nikkei 225 8,724.12 +4.11 +0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,105.1 +22.85 +0.56%

Shanghai Composite 2,147.96 -37.93 -1.74%

Guangzhou R&F Properties Ltd., a developer in the southern Chinese city, advanced 4.9 percent in Hong Kong.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd. soared 18 percent after Australian mining magnate Nathan Tinkler offered to buy out the rest of the coal producer.

Daekyung Machinery & Engineering Co. fell 8.3 percent in Seoul after a shipmaker dropped its bid for the chemical machinery maker.

ZTE Corp., a Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, slumped 16 percent after saying first-half profit may plunge 80 percent.

Resistance 3: Y79.95 (Jul 12 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.40 ( Jul 13 high, MA (50) D1, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Y79.00 (session high)

Current price: Y79.09

Support 1: Y78.60/65 (area of Jun 15-16 lows)

Support 2: Y77.95/10 (area of Jun 4-5 lows)

Support 3: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9915 (Dec 8 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9865-73 (area of Jul 12-16 highs)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9790 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9768

Support 1: Chf0.9735 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9685 (July 6 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9580 (Jul 4 low, MA (50) D1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5750 (MA (200) D1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5720 (Jul 2 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5622

Support 1: $ 1.5620 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5590 (Jul 13 high)

Support 3: $ 1.5515 (Jul 16 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2540 (Jul 5 high, MA (50) D1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2335 (Jul 10 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2293

Support 1: $ 1.2265 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2160-70 (area of Jul 12-16 highs)

Support 3: $ 1.2100 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,588 -4 -0.26%

Oil 88.20 +1.10 +1.26%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,724.12 +4.11 +0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,105.1 +22.85 +0.56%

Shanghai Composite 2,147.96 -37.93 -1.74%

FTSE 100 5,662.43 -3.70 -0.07%

CAC 40 3,179.9 -0.91 -0.03%

DAX 6,565.72 +8.62 +0.13%

Dow 12,727 -50 -0.39%

Nasdaq 2,897 -12 -0.40%

S&P 500 1,354 -3 -0.23%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2269 +0,17% 1,2248

GBP/USD $1,5632 +0,36% 1,5575

USD/CHF Chf0,9786 -0,17% 0,9803

USD/JPY Y78,85  -0,42% 79,18

EUR/JPY  Y96,75 +0,34% 96,42

GBP/JPY Y123,25 -0,03% 123,29

AUD/USD  $1,0243 +0,18% 1,0225

NZD/USD  0,7973 +0,19% 0,7958

USD/CAD C$1,0147 +0,05% 1,0142

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +2.4% -0.6%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June +22.4% +18.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m June -0.1% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y June +2.8% +2.7%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y June +2.2% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m June 0.0% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y June +3.1% +3.0%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y June +3.1% +3.1%

09:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment July -16.9 -14.5

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment July -20.1 -18.3

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter July

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m June -0.3% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y June +1.7% +1.6%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m June +0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y June +2.3% +2.2%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) May -0.8% +0.7%

13:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate - 1.00% 1.00%

13:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement -

13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows May -20.5

13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows May 25.6 45.7

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) June -0.1% +0.4%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization June 79.0% 79.2%

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index July 29 30

14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies July

17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes -