Forex-novosti i prognoze od 12-07-2012

During the American session, the euro showed a slight increase due to the lack of important economic data. A slight decrease was seen after the publication of data on the federal budget, which came out better than expected. Pounds during the entire session is rapidly decreased, reaching minimum values ​​at the same time on June 8. The Australian dollar started to fall today, after data showed that unemployment rose. But during the American session the pair was trading kept in the maximum values ​​reached. The yen during the session, consolidating after the sharp decline in the early afternoon on the background comments of the Bank of Japan monetary policy and the decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

European stocks declined the most in more than two weeks as minutes released by the Federal Reserve disappointed investors seeking a more definitive signal for further quantitative-easing measures.

Temenos Group AG plunged 28 % to a three-year low after reducing its estimate for 2012 revenue growth and saying its chief executive officer quit. Ashmore Group Plc (ASHM) dropped 6.7 % after the fund manager reported a drop in assets. Aegis Group Plc surged 45 %, the most in 21 years, after Japan’s Dentsu Inc. agreed to buy the company.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 1.1 % to 252.89 at the close in London, the biggest retreat since June 25. The benchmark measure has retreated 0.6 % this week, after a five-week rally, as concern mounted the slowing economic growth will curb earnings in the U.S. and Europe.

National benchmark indexes fell in 16 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,608.25 -56.23 -0.99% CAC 40 3,135.18 -22.07 -0.70% DAX 6,419.35 -34.50 -0.53%

Temenos (TEMN) declined 28 % to 10.25 Swiss francs, the lowest price and the biggest decrease since the first quarter of 2009, after reducing its forecast for 2012 revenue growth to a range of minus 5 % to plus 1 %, compared with an earlier forecast of minus 5 % to plus 6 %. The company also said CEO Guy Dubois will step down for personal reasons and be replaced by David Arnott, who’s currently the chief financial officer.

Cap Gemini SA (CAP), France’s biggest computer-services company, declined 2.9 % to 26.23 euros.

Infosys Ltd. (INFY), India’s second-biggest software exporter, cut its sales forecast and reported fiscal first-quarter profit that missed estimates.

Ashmore tumbled 6.7 % to 307.8 pence, the lowest since October. The U.K. fund manager said assets under management fell 3.3 % to $63.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

A gauge of mining companies fell 2.8 % for the worst performance among the 19 industry groups on the

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, lost 3.3 % to 1,751 pence. The stock was cut to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Aegis Group surged 45 % to 235.3 pence, the biggest jump since at least January 1991. Dentsu, a Japanese advertising company agreed to buy Aegis in a deal valued at about 3.16 billion pounds ($4.9 billion).

SAP AG (SAP) advanced 2.7 % to 47.50 euros, erasing earlier losses, after the biggest maker of business-management software reported second-quarter software license sales that topped analysts’ estimates.

Oil declined as the euro slumped to a two-year low, reducing investor appetite for raw materials, and on signals that the global economic recovery is faltering.

Futures dropped as much as 1.9 percent after the common currency depreciated to the lowest level since June 2010 against the dollar. World stock markets fell as South Korea lowered interest rates for the first time in more than three years and Australian payrolls were cut. The International Energy Agency forecast “muted” growth in oil demand in 2013.

The falling euro is the primary reason for oil’s drop today. A weaker currency is probably the only tool the Europeans can use in the short term to boost growth.  The euro dropped as much as 0.6 percent to $1.2167 today, the lowest level since June 30, 2010. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities decreased 0.9 percent. Nineteen of the raw materials on the index were lower.

Australian employers unexpectedly cut payrolls in June, and the jobless rate rose for a second month, to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent, data from the statistics bureau in Sydney showed. South Korea reduced its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point, highlighting concern that exports are threatened by Europe’s failure to resolve its debt crisis.

Oil consumption will increase by a “relatively muted” 1 million barrels a day, or 1.1 percent, to an average of 90.9 million in 2013, the Paris-based IEA said today in its first outlook for the coming year. Demand in emerging economies will surpass that of developed nations for the first time in 2013, the IEA forecasts.

The he August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX fell $ 0.62, and is now $ 85.19 a barrel.

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell 0.86$ to $ 99.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold fell 1 percent on Thursday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting gave no indication that U.S. policymakers were gearing up for additional action to stimulate growth, lessening the chances of a boost for the bullion price. Wednesday's minutes showed the Fed was open to buying more Treasury bonds to stimulate the economy but that the recovery might need to weaken for a consensus to build.

Disappointment that the minutes did not point to greater appetite for QE, coupled with data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest in four years, lifted the dollar to two-year highs against the euro.  The correlation between gold and the dollar index was around its most negative in two years.

The gold price has more than doubled in value since the Fed initiated its multi-trillion dollar bond-buying program, a tool known as quantitative easing, in late 2008 during the depths of the global financial crisis. The market can pretend that QE3 isn't important, but it is one of the fundamental factors that is supporting gold prices.

Gold has fallen in six out of the last 10 trading sessions, compared with seven daily declines in global equities.

August gold futures on the COMEX today declined by 10.9 and now stands at $ 1564.8 USD per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1610 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance of 2:1600 (Jul 10 high)

Resistance of 1:1583 (Jul 11 high)

Current Price: 1565.00

Support 1:1558 / 58 (session low, resistance line from May 16)

Support 2: 1548 (low of June)

Support 3: 1527 (low of May)

Resistance 3:91,70 (50,0% FIBO 106,10-77,20, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 2:88,70 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1:86,30 (Jul 10 high)

Current Price: 84.83

Support 1:83,40 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2:81,80 (Jul 2 low)

Support 3:77,20 (low of June)

Resistance of 3:1356 (Jul 10 high)
Resistance of 2:1342 (Jul 11 high)
Resistance of 1:1335 (support line from Jun 4 broken earlier)
Current Price: 1321.75
Support 1:1320 (50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)
Support 2:1307 / 02 (MA (200) for D1, Jun 25-26 lows, 61,8% FIBO 1265-1375)
Support 3:1296 (Jun 12 low) 

The closest support level of $ 1.5400 (June 7 low)

EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2215, $1.2225, $1.2230, $1.2285

USD/JPY Y78.75, Y79.00, Y79.85, Y80.00

AUD/USD $1.0200

EUR/AUD A$1.2065

NZD/USD $0.8000

U.S. stock futures dropped amid concern the global economy is weakening.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,720.01 -130.99 -1.48%
Hang Seng 19,025.11 -394.76 -2.03%
Shanghai Composite 2,185.49 +10.11 +0.46%
FTSE  5,608.96 -55.52 -0.98%
CAC  3,141.73 -15.52 -0.49%
DAX 6,413.18 -40.67 -0.63%
Crude oil $84.94 (-1,01%)
Gold $1557.70 (-1.04%)

Experts Barclays and Goldman Sachs, as well as the research firm Macroeconomic Advisers lowered projections for U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter of this year due to not enough strong data released yesterday by the foreign trade of goods and supplies to wholesalers of the country.

For example, analysts at Barclays revised forecast from 2.5% (in terms of annual growth) to 1.5%. The experts Goldman Sachs expects GDP growth of 1.3% compared to the previously expected 1.4%, and analysts Macroeconomic Advisers cut its forecast from 1.4% to 1.2%.

Data

EUR/USD
Offers  $1.2300, $1.2275, $1.2250
Bids  $1.2175/70, $1.2150

EUR/GBP
Offers  stg0.8080/90, stg0.8040/50, stg0.8020/25, stg0.8010, stg0.8000/05, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7925/35, stg0.7910
Bids  stg0.7855/50, stg0.7810/00

USD/JPY
Offers  Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.75/80, Y79.50
Bids  Y79.00

EUR/JPY
Offers  Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.50, Y96.90/00
Bids Y96.50, Y96.00, Y95.50

AUD/USD
Offers  $1.0250, $1.0235/40, $1.0200, $1.0170/75
Bids  $1.0100, $1.0075/70, $1.0050, $1.0000

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5620/25, $1.5600/10, $1.5580, $1.5545/50, $1.5470/80
Bids  $1.5440, $1.5410/00, $1.5380, $1.5350, $1.5330

• • Lagarde expects to see further growth in consumption in China

  • The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets rose

  • Central banks in South Asia have "room for maneuver"

  • EU member states had made ​​progress in resolving the crisis

  • Members of the European Union must do more

Resistance 3: Y80.10 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.95 (Asian session high)

Resistance 1: Y79.64 (MA(200) for Н1)

Current price: Y79.29

Support 1: Y79.12 (Jul 11 low)

Support 2: Y78.78 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0060 (MA (200) for W1)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9910 (Dec 2010 high)

Current price: Chf0.9857

Support 1: Chf0.9765 (Jul 11 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9680 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9580 (Jul 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5620 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5570 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5515 (Asian session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5456

Support 1: $ 1.5400 (Jun 7 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5315 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5270 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2540 (Jul 5 high)

European stocks declined after the Federal Reserve failed to signal more quantitative-easing measures to spur growth in the world’s largest economy. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also dropped.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s June 19-20 meeting debated the need for further stimulus measures, minutes released yesterday in Washington showed. Two participants supported additional bond purchases, while two others said only a further deterioration in the economy would warrant them.

Temenos Group AG plunged 21 percent to a three-year low after reducing its estimate for 2012 revenue-growth range and saying its chief executive officer quit.

PSA Peugeot Citroen gained 3.4 percent after saying it will cut 3,600 more jobs.

Aegis Group Plc surged 45 percent, the most in 21 years, after Japan’s Dentsu Inc. agreed to buy the company.

FTSE 100 5,627.03 -37.45 -0.66%                

CAC 40 3,145.38    -11.87 -0.38%                

DAX 6,403.35         -50.50 -0.78%            

• Sold E7.5bln 12-month BOT, average yield 2.697% (3.972%), cover 1.55 (1.73)

Asian stocks fell for a sixth day as concern over a global slump overshadowed moves by central banks in Japan and South Korea to buoy economic growth. Hong Kong stocks slid ahead of a report from China expected to show the slowest expansion since the financial crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,720.01 -130.99 -1.48%

S&P/ASX 200 4,067.97 -28.57 -0.70%

Shanghai Composite 2,185.49 +10.11 +0.46%

Asahi Glass Co. led Japanese makers of the material lower after cutting its operating profit forecast by almost a third.

Hyundai Motor Co. fell 3.1 percent as its workers threatened to strike.

Infosys Ltd., India’s second-biggest exporter of software, slid 8.9 percent after cutting a sales forecast.

China Construction Bank Corp. paced declines among mainland lenders.

EUR/USD $1.2200, $1.2215, $1.2225, $1.2230, $1.2285

USD/JPY Y78.75, Y79.00, Y79.85, Y80.00

AUD/USD $1.0200

EUR/AUD A$1.2065

NZD/USD $0.8000

00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks -

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation July +2.3% +3.3%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate June 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed June 38.9 0.3 -27.0

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

07:00 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

During the American session, the euro declined against the dollar on the eve of publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market. After the announcement of the results of the dollar rose sharply, by updating the prospect that a two-year maximum. This news also contributed to other currencies. Pounds during the entire session is rapidly decreased, and after the publication of minutes of FOMC meetings close to the minimum values ​​of the Tuesday. Australian Dolar bargained kept during the session, but fell sharply in connection with the release of data from the Fed. The yen fell sharply before the publication of the protocols, but almost no reaction to the published data and is now trading in the area reached maximum values.

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid concern a global slowdown will hit earnings at companies from Advantest Corp. to BHP Billiton Ltd., while Premier Wen Jiabao’s call for more investment lifted Chinese railway shares.

Nikkei 225 8,851 -6.73 -0.08%

S&P/ASX 200 4,096.54 -1.48 -0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,175.38 +10.95 +0.51%

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 0.5 percent in Sydney after Citigroup Inc. said slowing growth in China will hurt demand for iron ore.

Advantest, a maker of memory-chip testers, slumped 3.3 percent in Tokyo after a leading U.S. manufacturer of semiconductor equipment cut its sales forecast.

China Railway Group Ltd. paced gains among shares in the sector.

Most European stocks fell before the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, as investors waited for clues about further measures to spur economic growth.

Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) tumbled to its lowest this year after quarterly sales growth missed projections. UniCredit SpA and BNP Paribas SA led bank shares higher. Getinge AB (GETIB) rose 3.9 percent after saying it expects “significant improvement” in second- half earnings growth.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped less than 0.1 percent to 255.59 at the close of trading. Two out of three shares on the gauge slid. The benchmark measure yesterday rose for the first time in a week as manufacturing in the U.K. and Italy unexpectedly rose.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,664.48 +0.41 +0.01% CAC 40 3,157.25 -18.16 -0.57% DAX 6,453.85 +15.52 +0.24%

Tod’s SpA (TOD), the Italian maker of pink alligator loafers, lost 4.8 percent to 72.15 euros. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC), the world’s biggest luxury-goods company, fell 3.2 percent to 116.65 euros. PPR (PP) SA, the French owner of Gucci, retreated 3.5 percent to 109.50 euros.

Britvic, the maker of Robinsons fruit drinks, plunged 13 percent to 260.1 pence, the biggest drop since March 2006, after saying full-year results will be “at the bottom end” of analysts’ estimates and a recall of its Fruit Shoot products will hurt earnings further.

SBM Offshore NV (SBMO) slid 6.6 percent to 10.47 euros. SBM’s jack-up rig in the Yme oilfield in the North Sea was evacuated after cracks were found in cement supporting the legs, Upstream reported late yesterday.

Mediaset SpA (MS) retreated 3.3 percent to 1.31 euros.

UniCredit climbed 2.3 percent to 2.79 euros. BNP Paribas advanced 1.5 percent to 29.94 euros.

Getinge, a Swedish sterilization-systems maker, rose 3.9 percent to 179.90 kronor. The company said the earnings outlook for 2012 remained favorable as there will be a significant improvement in profit growth in the second quarter.

U.S. stock indexes rose significantly after the publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market, but still closed in the red on the session. Also on the dynamics of trade affected by the data on the trade balance, which is markedly decreased. As shown by the protocols, the heads of the Fed still disagree over how to run a regular program to stimulate the economy. A small number of allusions to the easing of monetary policy pushed the U.S. dollar to rise, and stock indices - to decrease. These reports indicated the absence of a hurry for a new round of quantitative easing. DJIA fell, oil prices fell, and the majority of high-yielding currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar, which is considered safe-haven currency. Minutes of the Fed left the possibility for a third round of quantitative easing, but he seems not to be launched soon. Some leaders of the U.S. Federal Reserve in June decided that the central bank may need to take further measures to support labor market. Meanwhile, other leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that such measures would be justified only if the economic recovery is losing momentum, or if inflation weakens.
As part of the index DOW 10 components are in positive territory. The maximum loss demonstrate the action Boeing Co. (BA, -2.36%), United Technologies Corp. (UTX, -2.23%), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, -1.33%). Most of all shares rose Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +3.32%), Bank of America Corporation (BAC, +1.87%).
Branches in the context of the S & P 500 sector shows mixed trends. Maximum growth of the sector shows the basic materials (+0.9%). The maximum loss demonstrates the sector conglomerates (-0.8%).
At the time of closure:
Dow 12,604.45 -48.67 -0.38%
Nasdaq 2,887.98 -14.35 -0.49%
S & P 500 1,341.44 -0.03 -0.00%

Resistance 3: Y80.10 (Jul5 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.95 (session high and Jul 6 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.65 (MA (200) H1)

Current price: Y79.47

Support 1: Y79.40 (session low, MA (50) H1)

Support 2: Y79.12 (Jun 29 low and Jul 11 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.10065 (Dec 2 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9915 (Oct 10 high 2010)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9830 (Jul 11 high)

Current price: Chf0.9807

Support 1: Chf0.9765 (Jul 11 low, MA (100) H1)

Support 2: Chf0.9635 (Jul 10 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9685 (Jul 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5575 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5545 ( Jul 6 and 10 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5520 (MA (50), H1)

Current Price: $ 1.5501

Support 1: $ 1.5485 (Jul 11 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5460 (Jul 6 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2335 (Jul 10 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2295 (Jul 11 high, MA (100) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2265 (MA (50), H1)

Current Price: $ 1.2241

Support 1: $ 1.2210 (Jul 11 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2150 (Jun low 2010)

Support 3: $ 1.2100 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Oil $84.01 +0.10 +0.12%

Gold $1,567.90 -11.90 -0.75%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,851 -6.73 -0.08%

S&P/ASX 200 4,096.54 -1.48 -0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,175.38 +10.95 +0.51%

FTSE 100 5,664.48 +0.41 +0.01%

CAC 40 3,157.25 -18.16 -0.57%

Xetra DAX 6,453.85 +15.52 +0.24%

Dow 12,604.45 -48.67 -0.38%

Nasdaq 2,887.98 -14.35 -0.49%

S&P 500 1,341.44 -0.03 -0.00%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $ 1,2238 -0,11%

GBP/USD $ 1,5511 -0,03%

USD/CHF Chf0,9810 +0,10%

USD/JPY Y79,74 +0,43%

EUR/JPY Y97,58 +0,31%

GBP/JPY Y123,66 +0,39%

AUD/USD $1,0184 -0,07%

NZD/USD $0,7931 -0,10%

USD/CAD C$1,0198 -0,26%

00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks -

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation July +2.3%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate June 5.1% 5.2%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed June 38.9 0.3

02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10%

02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

05:30 France CPI, m/m June -0.1% -0.1%

05:30 France CPI, y/y June +2.0% +1.9%

07:00 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report July

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) May -0.8% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) May -2.3% -3.2%

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index May +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 374 379

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index June -1.0% -1.4%

17:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

18:00 U.S. Federal budget June -124.6 -109.7

19:40 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks