Forex-novosti i prognoze od 09-07-2012

During the American session, the euro traded in a narrow range. The pressure on the single currency has had a regional statistics, under which the euro zone investor confidence index up in July Sentix -29.6 points. In addition, the single currency remained under pressure due to rising yields on the debt of Spain and Italy. The main event of today's session was a meeting of the Eurogroup, which dealt primarily with the outcome of EU summit. But as it became known, the meeting was not very inspired by market participants and the major currencies almost did not react to past events.

Euro retreated from the Asian session low against the dollar on the comments of representatives of the Eurogroup in respect of the debt crisis. According to the European Commission, following the establishment of a pan-European supervisory control over the banking activities, to directly recapitalize the banks by means of the eurozone ESM will not require sovereign guarantees. Support a single currency was the outcome of the German auction. Today, the German Government has placed semi-annual treasury bills amounting to 3.29 billion euros, while intended to attract four billion euros.

The pound was trading at the beginning of the session kept in relation to the dollar, but after the meeting of the Eurogroup, has shown rapid growth, updating the intraday high and is now trading in the data values.

The yen today also shows a small but steady growth, updating the current high.

The Australian dollar fell yesterday after reports from the Xinhua News Agency, which reported that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the government's intention to conduct a fine job in response to the risks associated with falling economic growth in the country. Comments appear once the largest trading partner of Australia announced a second-rate cut last month. In China, in June 2012. inflation was 2.2%, according to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This was the lowest in the last 2.5 years. Producer price index fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Reduced PPI index is four months in a row and shows a decrease in demand for industrial goods.

European stocks decline fourth consecutive day, as industrial orders in Japan fell to a ten-year minimum.

Shares of Metro AG (MEO), which is Germany's largest retailer, fell to its lowest level in three years. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index (SXXP) fell by 0.4%, as the yield on 10-year bond climbed above Spain 7%. Recall that the threshold is higher than 7% inspired, Greece, Ireland and Portugal to request a financial aid package. .

National indexes fell in 14 out of 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,631.47 -31.16 -0.55% CAC 40 3,161.17 -7.62 -0.24% DAX 6,396.58 -13.53 -0.21%

In connection with these events shares Bankia SA (BKIA) the third largest Spanish bank fell by 1.8% to 83.4 euro cents. And shares of Banco Santander SA (SAN) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) fell 1.7% to 4.82 euro and by 1.4% to 05.11 euros, respectively.

Today, the largest increase in shares of telecommunications companies showed: Telecom Italia SpA (TIT) grew by 3.9% to 75.35 euro cents, France Telecom SA (FTE) increased by 0.9% to 10.27 euros, Vestas (VWS) Wind Systems A / S increased by 2.4%.

JJB Sports Plc (JJB) dropped by 25% to 7.38 pence after the information that sales have fallen down more than expected.

Michael Page International Plc (MPI) fell by 3.8% to 350.9 pence, as the gross margin fell to 6.6% in the second quarter with the same period last year.

Shares of BAE Systems Plc - Britain's biggest arms company, rose 1.4% to 296.9 pence.

Oil rose for the first three days since the strike threatened to stop production in Norway, which is the largest exporter of Western Europe.

Futures at 1.4%, as there was likely to disable all the Norwegian offshore platforms for oil and gas, where unions and employers can not solve all of your questions. Also on the rise in prices has affected the information that Iran had conducted military exercises last week and threatened to block the movement of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in response to the European embargo on oil.

Negotiations between the Norwegian Oil Industry Association, which represents employers, including Statoil ASA (STL) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), ended in failure yesterday. Recall that a Norwegian oil platform produced about 2040000 barrels of oil per day in 2011, representing 2.4% of total world production.

Iranian lawmakers are considering a bill to impose tariffs on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a transit point for about 20%. The European Union said that the embargo on Iranian oil came into force on 1 July.

Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq on energy issues, said in his speech that the recent slide in oil prices is unfounded and is caused by extraction of more oil than the market needs.

Oil also rose amid increasing fears of Spain, since the debt crisis in Europe will limit its economic growth and restrain demand for fuel.

The August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX has grown and now stands at $ 85.48 a barrel.

August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $ 1.10 to $ 99.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

U.S. stocks fell after Spanish bond yields rose above 7% intensified concern about Europe’s crisis and as investors awaited Alcoa Inc.’s results.
Alcoa, which begins the second-quarter earnings season after the market close, retreated 1.8%.

Currently:

Dow 12,687.17 -85.30 -0.67%
Nasdaq 2,920.16 -17.17 -0.58%
S&P 500 1,346.74 -7.94 -0.59%

Gold traded near a two-week low, which was caused by good inflation data from China and a slight depreciation of the dollar, because there is still uncertainty about interest rates in the United States. Economists polled by Reuters said that there is a 70% probability that the Fed will begin to conduct another round of quantitative easing, or buying government bonds to lower borrowing costs. Gold has lost about 1% last week under the pressure of constant weakness of the euro against the backdrop of the continuing debt crisis.

Gold rose after the Chinese data showed that inflation expectations have increased in July, signaling the prospects of the response by the central bank to prevent a recession.

Last week, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly lowered the benchmark interest rate, which was the second month, thus creating more favorable conditions for investments in gold.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week showed that speculators reduced their stocks of gold futures on the largest number in the last three months.

August gold futures on the COMEX today has grown today to 1589.9 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1620/24 (line of resistance from Jun 6, Jul 3 and 5 highs)

The resistance of 2:1610 (area of Jul 6 high)

The resistance of 1:1592 (MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: 1587.00

Support 1:1576 (session low)

Support 2: 1558 (resistance line from May 16)

Support 3: 1548 (low of June)

Resistance 3:91,60 / 90 (50.0% FIBO $106 - $77, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 2:88,70 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1:85,30 (session high)

Current Price: 85.01

Support 1:83,70 (session low, Jul 6 low, MA (200) for H1)

Support 2:81,80 (Jul 2 low)

Support 3:77,20 (low of June)

Resistance of 3:1410 (high of May)
Resistance of 2:1374 (Jul 5 high)
Resistance of 1:1350 (session high)
Current Price: 1344.25
Support 1:1342 (session low, Jul 6 low)
Support 2:1330 (MA (50) for D1)
Support 3:1302 (MA (200) for D1, Jun 25-26 lows)

According to informed sources, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may announce a third package of budget savings over the next few days. It is reported that the authorities intend to avoid a situation where they have to seek external financial assistance.

In accordance with the statements of official representatives of the Spanish government, are being discussed such measures as increasing the value added tax (VAT), where its rate is currently undervalued, which is primarily concerned with gasoline, food, water, public transport, hotels and restaurants.

Furthermore it is reported that the Spanish authorities will create a "bad bank" that will focus all the problem assets of the banking sector in the country, and we intend to agree to bring a basic first level of bank capital to 9% of all national lenders.

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  • May, a composite index of leading indicators -0.1 pips.; Growth rate -0.1% m / m

  • Indicators Italy increasingly point to slowing economy

  • U.S., Japan and Russia demonstrate growth above the long-term trend, but lose the momentum of growth

  • E-17, Britain, Canada continues to demonstrate economic activity below trend

  • China and India are served strong signals deceleration rates below trend

EUR/USD $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2400, $1.2450, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5400, $1.5450, $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.8045

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0265

U.S. stock futures fell after an advance in Spanish yields intensified concern about Europe’s debt crisis and as investors awaited Alcoa (AA) Inc.’s results.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,896.88 -123.87 -1.37%
Hang Seng 19,428.09 -372.55 -1.88%
Shanghai Composite 2,170.81 -52.77 -2.37%
FTSE 5,638.66 -23.97 -0.42%
CAC 3,164.16 -4.63 -0.15%
DAX 6,404.39 -5.72 -0.09%
Crude oil $84.55 (+0,12%)
Gold 0.32% $1584.00

-- Italy spending review will help it meet fiscal target

-- Fundamentals of euro area are sound

-- Must implement euro-level, national commitments

-- The euro is here to stay

-- Stability for EMU means implementing summit decisions

-- Euro area will take steps to ensure its survival

-- Looking forward to work on a roadmap that has started

-- Need to share more fiscal financial econ. sovereignty

-- Deeper EMU integration requires more accountability

-- E3.917bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.005% (0.048%), cover 2.32 (1.85)
-- E1.993bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.006% (0.096%), cover 3.20 (2.79)
-- E1.793bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.013% (0.163%), cover 2.77 (2.38)

Underlying price pressures should remain moderate

Data:

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate June 3.2% 3.2% 2.9%

06:00 Germany Trade Balance May 16.1 15.9 15

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence July -28.9 -26.0 -29.6

The euro fell to its lowest level in two years against the dollar before regional finance ministers gather in Brussels today to discuss crisis-fighting measures adopted by heads of government at a summit last month.

The 17-nation currency erased its intraday drop as the European Commission said future recapitalizations of banks by rescue funds wouldn’t require government guarantees.

Spanish and Italian bonds fell amid concern finance ministers will fail to agree on sufficient crisis-fighting measures to stem the euro area’s woes at today’s meeting.

Recapitalizations of banks by the European Stability Mechanism will have “no need for a sovereign guarantee,” commission spokesman Simon O’Connor told reporters in Brussels today. Details of how the future system will work remain to be negotiated, he said.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair consolidated and is now trading between $ 1.2265 - $ 1.2315

GBP / USD: the pair is trading between $ 1.5470 - $ 1.5510

USD / JPY: during the session, the pair rose to the level of Y79.77 and then retreated to the level of Y79, 50

At 14:30 GMT will be released in Canada in light of expectations of financial institutions, according to the Bank of Canada and the indicator of expected growth in trading volume (Review of sentiment in the business environment of the Bank of Canada) for the 2nd quarter. At 22:00 GMT New Zealand will publish a sentiment indicator of the business environment by NZIER, house price index from the REINZ, the change in volume of home sales by REINZ for June. At 23:01 GMT the UK will publish BRC Retail Sales Monitor and balance of housing prices from the RICS in June.

Today at 15.00 GMT in Brussels, chaired by the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude The cadets will begin the meeting of EU finance ministers to discuss the summit, held June 28-29.

The agenda includes the following:

- Draft Memorandum of Understanding between the euro area and Spain on the issue of providing financial assistance to the banking sector in Spain, the ability to directly recapitalize Spanish banks

- Possibility of revising the terms of the salvation of Greece

- Preliminary report of the Troika on Cyprus

In addition, the government will continue to discuss on the possibility of creating a single oversight body within the EU, as well as empowering EFSF / ESM authority to purchase bonds on the secondary market. The negotiations promise to be difficult, because The Netherlands and Finland have opposed this idea.

France and Germany will also try to "smooth out the corners" on the issue of Eurobonds issue. During the meeting, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, which took place over the weekend, both parties pledged to strengthen friendly relations among nations and to continue to effectively combat the crisis.

Another organizational aspect will be the appointment of a new president and managing director of Eurogroup ESM.

Data

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence June -1 0

01:30 China PPI y/y June -2.9% -2.5% -2.7%

01:30 China CPI y/y June +2.1% +2.5% +2.7%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y June -7.4% -12.4%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.3% +3.7% +1.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) May +0.1% +0.3% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) May -0.6% -1.5% -2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) May -0.2% +0.5% -0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) May -0.5% -1.5% -2.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods May -8.2 -8.5 -8.5

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

The pound fell against the dollar significantly, aided by the publication of the report by Britain. As shown by recent data that was presented today by the Office for National Statistics, the volume of industrial production in the UK has not changed in the month of May, while manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

According to a report in the May monthly basis, the volume of industrial production showed zero growth, while manufacturing output fell by 0.8%.

It should be noted that, according to experts average output was increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. We also add that the rate of industrial production for April was revised down to -0.1% from 0.1%.

In addition, the data showed that on an annual basis, industrial production fell by 2.3%, beating economists' forecasts of 1.5% reduction, which was associated with a 2.9% fall in manufacturing and a 3.5% decline in the mining industry and quarrying. With regard to production in the manufacturing industry, it declined by 2.9%, which was also significantly higher than the estimates of experts at -1.5%. Note also that the decline followed the April decline of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively.

The yen was suspended yesterday's decline against the euro, pending the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which starts tomorrow. Officials will discuss the situation in the markets, and, according to rumors, a reassessment of the country's economic growth upwards.

The Australian dollar rose after a strong rise in gold prices in Asia on Tuesday. We also add that traders expect the comments on Wednesday the central bank's assessment of the prospects for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its meeting on June 18-19 on Wednesday, and investors expect the information that policy makers intend to reduce the economic incentives to the end of the week.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is also planning to give a speech on economic policy. Fed may begin to curtail their economic stimulus program by the end of the year.

Experts note that Bernanke may increase expectations that the Fed's bond-buying program, which aims to lower interest rates in the U.S. may be a step closer after the employment data in the U.S. on Friday. The market is still trying to assess whether September will bring a reduction of 85 billion dollar stimulus. The strength of the Australian dollar is growing, despite a lot of bad news on the domestic front. Australian business conditions fell to its lowest level in more than four years, despite the support of record low interest rates and a sharp fall in the local currency, which has helped manufacturers

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2898, then dropped to $ 1.2855

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.4831

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.31

At 12:15 GMT Canada will report on the number of Housing Starts in June. At 14:00 GMT Britain will present data on changes in GDP from NIESR for June. At 20:30 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of crude oil, according to API. At 23:50 GMT Japan will release the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in June, and the index of activity in the services sector in May.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2450, $1.2420, $1.2380, $1.2350/60, $1.2330/35, $1.2220

Bids $1.2275/70, $1.2220

Resistance 3: Y80.58 (Jun 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.02 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.77 (session high)

Current price: Y79.55

Support 1: Y79.41 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.30 (Jul 2 low)

Support 3: Y79.12 (Jun 28 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9910 (Dec 2010 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9800 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9758

Support 1: Chf0.9680 (Jul 6 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9610 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9510/20 (area of Jul 3-4 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5600 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5550 (Jul 6 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5510 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5493

Support 1: $ 1.5470 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5315 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2610 (Jul 4 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2500 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2312

Support 1: $ 1.2255 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2145 (Jun 2010 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

European stocks fell for a fourth day as Japanese machinery orders tumbled the most in seven years and the yield on Spain’s 10-year bonds climbed to 7 percent. U.S. index futures and Asian shares retreated.

Japanese machinery orders, an indicator of capital spending, fell 14.8 percent in May from the previous month, the Cabinet Office said, the biggest drop since at least 2005. Economists expected a 2.6 percent decline.

Meanwhile, German exports rebounded more than economists forecast in May, helping Europe’s largest economy to weather the sovereign debt crisis. Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, jumped 3.9 percent from April, when they fell 1.7 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today.

-- E3.29bln 6-month Bubill avg yield -0.0344% (0.007%), cover 1.67 (1.2)

EUR/USD $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2400, $1.2450, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5400, $1.5450, $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.8045

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0265

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest slide in a month, after Premier Wen Jiabao said China’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure and Japanese machinery orders fell the most in a decade.

Nikkei 225 8,896.88 -123.87 -1.37%

S&P/ASX 200 4,118.3 -39.51 -0.95%

Shanghai Composite 2,170.81 -52.77 -2.37%

BHP Billiton Ltd. the world’s biggest mining company, slid 1.9 percent as metals prices dropped following a U.S. jobs report that showed hiring isn’t increasing fast enough to lower the unemployment rate.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. led declines among Chinese developers traded in Hong Kong after Wen pledged to prevent home prices rebounding.

Iluka Resources Ltd. tumbled 24 percent after the world’s biggest zircon producer cut its sales forecast for the mineral by as much as 50 percent.

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June -2.4% -1.2%

01:30 China CPI y/y June +3.0% +2.4% +2.2%

01:30 China PPI y/y June -1.4% -2.0% -2.1%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current June 47.2 47.6 43.8

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook June 48.1 45.7

The dollar strengthened to a two-year high against the euro as investors sought safety after U.S. employers added fewer jobs in June than forecast.

Payrolls increased by 80,000 jobs after a revised gain of 77,000 in May, Labor Department data showed in Washington. Economists projected an increase of 100,000, according to the median estimate. Private employment, which excludes government agencies, grew 84,000 in June, the weakest in 10 months.

The euro weakened earlier as Spanish industrial production adjusted for the number of working days fell 6.1 percent in May from a year earlier, after an 8.3 percent decline in April, the National Statistics Institute said in Madrid. Spain’s recession probably intensified in the second quarter as Europe’s debt crisis worsened, the central bank said on June 27.

The Spanish 10-year yield rose as much as 26 basis points, or 0.26 percentage point, to 7.04 percent after jumping 37 basis points.

The pound rose for a third day against the euro as traders bet the Bank of England’s bond-purchase program will weigh less on the currency than the policies of other central banks.

Asian stocks fell for a second day, paring this week’s gain, as sales at Samsung Electronics Co. missed analysts’ estimates and interest-rate cuts in Europe and China failed to boost confidence in the global economy.

Nikkei 225 9,020.75 -59.05 -0.65%

S&P/ASX 200 4,157.81 -11.39 -0.27%

Shanghai Composite 2,223.58 +22.23 +1.01%

Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that gets 31 percent of its sales in Europe, slid 2.5 percent.

Australian miner BHP Billiton Ltd., whose biggest market is China, fell 1 percent as investors sold shares of companies with earnings tied to economic growth.

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. led a slide among Chinese banks, dropping 2.8 percent.

Parco Co. climbed 2.5 percent in Tokyo after J Front Retailing Co. said it will buy a majority stake in the rival department-store operator.

Resistance 3: Y80.65 ( Jun 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.10 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.75 (session high, MA (50) H1 and MA (100) H1)

Current price: Y79.67

Support 1: Y79.30/40 (Jul 2 low, session low)

Support 2: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9895 (Dec 9 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9845 (Dec 13 high 2010)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9800 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9772

Support 1: Chf0.9705 (MA (50) H1)

Support 2: Chf0.9685 (Jul 6 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9630 (MA (100) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5590 (MA (100) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2535 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2475 (MA (100) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2287

Support 1: $ 1.2260 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2200 (psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.2155 (Jun 29 low 2010)

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June -2.4% -1.2%

01:30 China CPI y/y June +3.0% +2.4% +2.2%

01:30 China PPI y/y June -1.4% -2.0% -2.1%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current June 47.2 47.6

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook June 48.1

05:45 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves June 3.2% 3.2%

06:00 Germany Trade Balance May 16.1 15.9

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence July -28.9 -26.0

12:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter II -16.9

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales Quarter II 35

15:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks -

15:55 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit May 6.5 8.9

22:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence Quarter II 13

22:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m June +1.7%

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y June +1.3% +2.0%

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance June -16% -15%