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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 04-07-2012
European stocks were little changed as speculation that central banks will ease monetary policy offset service-industry measures in the U.K. and Germany that missed economists’ forecasts.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest-rate decisions tomorrow. ECB officials will cut their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.75 percent, according to the median forecast.
A U.K. gauge of services activity based on a survey of purchasing managers fell to 51.3 in June, an eight-month low, from 53.3 in May, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said. The median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a reading of 52.9. A measure above 50 indicates expansion.
A German services PMI dropped to 49.9 last month from 51.8 in May, according to a separate report from Markit.
National benchmark indexes fell in 10 of the 18 western European markets. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.3 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.2 percent.
Mediaset SpA, the broadcaster controlled by former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, advanced 6.5 percent to 1.48 euros. The stock climbed following an Il Sole report that RTL Group and Al-Jazeera are seeking a partnership with the company for pay television.
EON AG dropped 1.6 percent to 16.91 euros after analysts downgraded the shares. Germany’s biggest utility was cut to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan, while Citigroup Inc. reduced its recommendation to sell from neutral.
In addition to the weak British data PMI, which disappointed the pound, the negative impact on the pair GBP / USD had a scandal around the definition of policy rates Libor. In the parliament held a hearing on the matter, in particular, now began to address the former CEO Barclay Diamond, who left his post yesterday. Regulators will try to determine whether some banks deliberately carried Libor rate manipulation by providing false information during the financial crisis.
Pair updated daily low of $ 1.5593 and is now trading at $ 1.5614
EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2800
USD/JPY: Y79.50, Y80.00
EUR/GBP: stg0.8060
AUD/USD: $1.0000, $1.0100
Brent oil futures retreated from the highest close in more than a month on speculation that this week’s gains have been excessive amid concern that a global economic slowdown may curb demand.
Futures fell as much as 1.4 percent after rising about 9 percent since June 28. Societe Generale SA cut its crude-price forecasts, citing ample supply amid Europe’s debt crisis and a slowing Chinese economy. Iranian and European officials met in Istanbul today to discuss differences over the country’s nuclear program. A mediator called oil workers to talks aimed at resolving Norway’s first industrywide strike since 2004. U.S. floor trading will be shut for the Independence Day holiday.
Brent crude for August settlement was down as much as $1.42, or 1.4 percent, at $99.26 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. It trimmed losses to trade at $99.86 as of 12:02 p.m. local time. The European benchmark was at a premium of $13.12 to West Texas Intermediate crude in New York versus $13.02 yesterday.
West Texas Intermediate oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.16 to $86.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract increased yesterday by $3.91 to $87.66 a barrel, the highest close since May 30. Prices have lost 12 percent this year.
Data
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May -0.2% +0.3% +0.5%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +1.0% +3.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index June +0.5% -0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June -0.1% -0.8%
07:50 France Services PMI (finally) June 45.1 47.3 47.9
07:55 Germany Services PMI (finally) June 51.8 50.3 49.9
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) June 46.7 46.8 47.1
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 53.3 53.0 51.3
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) May -1.4% 0.2% 0.6%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) May -3.4% -1.0% -1.7%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
During the European session, the euro fell against the dollar and the yen after yesterday's growth, in anticipation of tomorrow's auction of Spanish bond and the meeting of the European Central Bank. Reduction was also caused by the publication of economic data for the EU, which showed weak growth. Dollar during the session showed a stable and steady growth, as many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's report on U.S. employment, which should surprise the good data. Positively to the dollar also affected by the representative of the ECB Knothe, who discussed the program of purchases of bonds.
The pound fell sharply after disappointing data on the PMI index in the services sector, which until eight months minimum.
Also during the session showed a significant reduction in the Swiss franc, which is against the backdrop of economic data from the EU renewed the maximum of the previous day. The Canadian dollar traded during the session in a narrow range near the minimum values of the previous day.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair declined, updating the previous day low
GBP / USD: a pair of sharply dropped to 1.5630, and after a small correction in the trading lows
USD / JPY: during the session, the pair showed a slight increase and is in the area the previous day's highs
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/00, $1.2665/70, $1.2650, $1.2620/30, $1.2600/10
Bids $1.2560/50, $1.2520, $1.2500, $1.2480
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0290/00
Bids $1.0250, $1.0240/30, $1.0200
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.00, Y100.85/90, Y100.45/50
Bids Y100.00, Y99.70, Y99.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.50, Y80.25, Y80.00, Y79.90
Bids Y79.60/55, Y79.50
Resistance 3: Y80.90 (50.0% FIBO Y84,20-Y77,60)
Resistance 2: Y80.60 (MA (100) for D1, May and June high)
Resistance 1: Y80.00 (June 29 high)
Current price: Y79.82
Support 1: Y79.30 (July 2 low)
Support 2: Y79.15 (June 29 low)
Support 3: Y78.80 (June 20 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (June 4-5 and 28 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9595 (61.8% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, June 28 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9570/80 (MA (200) for H1, 50% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, intraday high on Jun 29)
Current price: Chf0.9560
Support 1: Chf0.9510 (July 3 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9460 (June 29 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9420 (low of June)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (high of June, 50,0% FIBO $ 1,6300 - $ 1,5270)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (June 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5720 (Jule 2 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5651
Support 1: $ 1.5620/30 (38,2% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716, session low)
Support 2: $ 1.5575 (61.8% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Support 3: $ 1.5480/70 (June 14-15 and 28 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2740 (high of June)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2695 (June 29 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2625 (23,6% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690, July 3 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2565
Support 1: $ 1.2540/50 (MA(200) for H1, 50,0% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 2: $ 1.2520 (61,8% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (June 28 low)
EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2800
USD/JPY: Y79.50, Y80.00
EUR/GBP: stg0.8060
AUD/USD: $1.0000, $1.0100
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May -0.2% +0.3% +0.5%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +1.0% +3.3%
The euro snapped a gain from yesterday ahead of a Spanish bond sale tomorrow and before a meeting of the European Central Bank, at which economists project policy makers will cut interest rates. The ECB will probably lower its main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.75 percent tomorrow, the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey showed.
Spain is scheduled to auction three-, four- and 10-year debt tomorrow. The nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yielded 6.25 percent yesterday, compared with a euro-era high of 7.29 percent reached June 18.
The 17-nation currency failed to extend an advance from yesterday versus the yen before data forecast to confirm European services and manufacturing industries shrank. London-based Markit Economics is likely to say today that a final reading on its euro-area composite index was unchanged at 46 last month from May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That’s the lowest since June 2009 and below the 50 level that signals expansion of services and manufacturing output.
The dollar touched a two-month low versus its New Zealand counterpart on speculation a U.S. report tomorrow will show job growth slowed. In the U.S., companies probably added 100,000 jobs in June, the smallest gain since August, a Bloomberg poll showed before ADP Employer Services releases the figure tomorrow.
The International Monetary Fund said additional monetary easing may be needed in the world’s largest economy. “Further easing” by the Fed might be needed “if the situation was to deteriorate,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters in Washington yesterday.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair receded from yesterday's high.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell slightly.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell.
EMU data at 0900GMT includes retail trade and the third estimate of Q1 GDP, while at the same time, German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble presents a new postal stamp, in Berlin. Also in Europe today, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is due to deliver a speech at the "Europe in 2012 and its challenges" conference, in Mont Ste Odile (France). In the UK at 0828GMT, the Markit/CIPS Services PMI for June is due and is seen slipping to 52.7 from 53.3 last month. Markets on Wednesday will obviously be thinned-out by the Independence Day holiday in the US today.
Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest winning streak this year, as U.S. factory orders topped estimates and commodities climbed to a two-month high amid speculation central banks will act to boost economic growth.
Nikkei 225 9,104.17 +37.58 +0.41%
S&P/ASX 200 4,172.16 +44.94 +1.09%
Shanghai Composite 2,227.31 -1.88 -0.08%
BHP Billiton Ltd. jumped 2.1 percent to lead gains among commodity stocks as a surge in raw-materials prices boosted the earnings outlook at the world’s largest mining company.
Komatsu Ltd., a Japanese maker of construction equipment that gets 23 percent of sales in the U.S., rose 2 percent.
Real Nutriceutical Group Ltd. soared 13 percent after billionaire Li Ka-shing increased his stake in the provider of health products.
Yesterday the yen weakened most of its major counterparts as investors sought higher-yielding assets amid speculation central banks will step up efforts to spur growth, reducing demand for havens.
The euro rose after the head of the IMF's Christine Lagarde called on the U.S. to an additional stimulus to prevent economic slowdown, as evidenced by the drop in ISM index in the manufacturing sector to around 49.7 in June. It should be noted that Lagarde addressed to politicians, not the Fed. In addition, she stated that the dollar is overvalued, which causes the upward movement of the EUR / USD charts. Players expect the ECB meeting to be held on July 5. The European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate to a record low. The ECB and BOE will announce policy decisions on July 5. ECB officials will lower their main interest rate by a quarter- percentage point to 0.75 percent on July 5, economists survey forecast.
The Canadian dollar advanced against most of its major counterparts as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, rose to the strongest level against the U.S. currency since May 17. It climbed as much as 0.5 percent to C$1.0121. Crude for August delivery rose to as high as $88.04 a barrel in New York, the highest since May 31.
Australia’s dollar touched a two-month high today versus the greenback as data showed the nation’s home building approvals surged in May, adding to signs that the economy is gaining momentum. It pared gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and said a subdued international outlook meant the stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.
The pound weakened against a majority of its most-traded peers after an index showed U.K. construction contracted in June. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will raise its target for bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 375 billion pounds on July 5.
Asian stocks climbed for a fifth day, the longest rising streak on the regional benchmark index since March, on expectations that central banks from Washington to Frankfurt may ease monetary policy to spur economic growth.
Nikkei 225 9,066.59 +63.11 +0.70%
S&P/ASX 200 4,127.2 -5.80 -0.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,229.19 +3.08 +0.14%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, advanced 2.6 percent, leading gains among financial firms.
Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, climbed 1.4 percent in Tokyo. Tencent Holdings Ltd. led technology stocks higher in Hong Kong after Micron Technology Inc. agreed to buy Elpida Memory Inc. in the memory-chip industry’s largest consolidation in four years.
European stocks climbed, posting their biggest three-day rally this year, amid optimism central banks will add to stimulus measures and as a report showed that U.S. factory orders rebounded in May.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest-rate decisions on July 5. ECB officials will lower their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.75 percent, according to the median forecast.
The People’s Bank of China may cut lenders’ reserve requirements to increase liquidity in the banking system, according to a commentary on the front page of today’s China Securities Journal, which is published by the official Xinhua News Agency. The central bank announced a cut to interest rates on June 7, a day after the newspaper published a commentary urging the move.
National benchmark indexes gained in every western-European market. France’s CAC 40 advanced 1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 0.8 percent. Germany’s DAX rose 1.3 percent.
Peugeot climbed 3.7 percent to 7.72 euros as Europe’s second-biggest carmaker plans to eliminate as much as 10 percent of its French workforce to reduce operational costs, a union official said. Peugeot may discuss its plans for the reorganization at its next works council meeting on July 12.
Swiss Re Ltd. rose 1.7 percent to 61.10 Swiss francs after BlackRock Inc. said it will buy Private Equity Partners AG from the world’s second-biggest reinsurer and integrate the business with its own fund-of-funds division.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a two-month high, after data showed factory orders topped estimates and as speculation grew that global central banks will act to spur economic growth.
Equities climbed as factory orders rose in May for the first time in three months. Yet declining jobs data in the U.S. this week may prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate fresh stimulus, BNP Paribas SA said. The European Central Bank is forecast to cut interest rates this week to help curb the debt crisis, while a state-owned newspaper in China said the time is ripe for a reduction in banks’ reserve-requirement ratios.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy rose 1.3 percent. Alcoa (АА), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, added 3.2 percent to $8.90. Caterpillar (САТ), the biggest maker of construction equipment, advanced 3.3 percent to $86.46.
Car companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) added 2.1 percent for the second-biggest gain among 24 groups. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler Group LLC said U.S. auto sales exceeded estimates in June. Ford rallied 2.2 percent to $9.60. GM added 5.6 percent to $20.67.
Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) lost 1.7 percent to $68.69 after unexpectedly announcing the resignation of Bill Johnson, previously named to be the chief executive officer after its takeover of Progress Energy Inc. (PGN) James Rogers, the head of Duke, is CEO of the merged companies effective immediately.
Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y80.00 (Jul 2 high)
Current price: Y79.76
Support 1: Y79.60 (session low)
Support 2: Y79.30 (Jul 2 low)
Support 3: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (Jun 28 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9590 (Jun 28 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9565/70 (area of Jun 29 high and the high of the European session on Jul 3)
Current price: Chf0.9539
Support 1: Chf0.9510 (Jul 3 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9480 (Jul 2 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9460 (Jun 29 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5850 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5720/30 (area of Jun 21 high and Jul 2 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5679
Support 1: $ 1.5640 (Jul 2 high )
Support 2: $ 1.5575 (low of the European session on Jun 29)
Support 3: $ 1.5470/85 (area of Jun 14 low and Jun 28 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2695 (Jun 29 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2665 (high of the European session on Jul 2)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2625 (Jul 3 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2586
Support 1: $ 1.2550/55 (area of Jul 3 low and the low of the European session on Jun 29)
Support 2: $ 1.2525 (Jun 28 high)
Support 3: $ 1.2405 (Jun 28 low)
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,620 +22 +1.40%
Oil 87.44 +3.69 +4.41%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,066.59 +63.11 +0.70%
S&P/ASX 200 4,127.2 -5.80 -0.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,229.19 +3.08 +0.14%
FTSE 100 5,687.73 +47.09 +0.83%CAC 40 3,271.2 +31.00 +0.96%
DAX 6,578.21 +82.13 +1.26%
Dow 12,944 +72 +0.56%
Nasdaq 2,976 +25 +0.84%
S&P 500 1,374 +9 +0.62%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2604 +0,16%
GBP/USD $1,5686 -0,03%
USD/CHF Сhf0,9525 -0,19%
USD/JPY Y79,82 +0,39%
EUR/JPY Y100,61 +0,01%
GBP/JPY Y125,19 +0,35%
AUD/USD $1,0280 +0,25%
NZD/USD $0,8036 +0,04%
USD/CAD C$1,0122 -0,41%
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May -0.2% +0.3% +0.5%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +1.0% +3.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index June +0.5% -0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June -0.1% -0.8%
07:50 France Services PMI (finally) June 45.1 47.3
07:55 Germany Services PMI(finally) June 51.8 50.3
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (finally) June 46.7 46.8
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 53.3 53.0
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) May -1.0% 0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) May -2.5% -1.0%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter I 0.0% 0.0%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) Quarter I -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 U.S. Bank holiday
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