Forex-novosti i prognoze od 29-06-2012

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29.06.2012

19:00

Dow +242.03 12,844.29 +1.92% Nasdaq +80.05 2,929.54 +2.81% S&P +28.93 1,357.97

18:00

European Stocks Close

European stocks rose for a fourth week as the region’s leaders agreed to address flaws in their bailout programs to ease the sovereign-debt crisis.

Colruyt NV (COLR) jumped 16 percent as Belgium’s biggest discount food retailer reported a surprise increase in profit. Barclays Plc (BARC) slumped 19 percent after paying a record fine to settle claims it sought to rig the London and euro interbank offered rates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) climbed 1.9 percent to 251.17 this week, extending the longest stretch of gains since January, after policy makers eased repayment rules for Spanish banks,

National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western European markets this week.

FTSE 100 5,571.15 +78.09 +1.42% CAC 40 3,196.65 +144.97 +4.75% DAX 6,416.28 +266.37 +4.33%

Colruyt jumped 16 percent as the Belgian retailer reported a surprise increase in profit amid heightened price awareness among consumers.

Yara International ASA, the world’s biggest publicly traded nitrogen-fertilizer maker, and K+S AG, Europe’s largest potash producer, each surged 12 percent. Syngenta AG, the biggest maker of crop chemicals, rose 5.2 percent.

Marine Harvest ASA (MHG), the world’s biggest salmon farmer, advanced 12 percent.

Even after the measures announced at the European Union summit, bank shares posted the second-worst performance among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

Barclays Plc, Britain’s second-largest bank by assets, slumped 19 percent for the biggest decline since August. The company will pay a record 290 million-pound ($455 million) fine after investigators found traders and senior managers “systematically” tried to manipulate Libor, the benchmark rate for $360 trillion of securities. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc declined 11 percent.

Infineon Technologies AG slid 14 percent after Europe’s second-largest semiconductor maker said sales in the current quarter would miss its prediction. The company will probably reduce its profit forecast again, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which downgraded the stock to neutral.

17:32

Euro rose due to the successful results of the EU summit

The euro rose against the dollar after European leaders have lowered credit conditions for Spanish banks, taking a step to resolving the debt crisis in the region and increased demand for Eurocurrency.

President of the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy said that officials at a meeting in Brussels agreed to waive the condition that emergency loans for Spanish banks will be provided with privileged conditions.

EU leaders will meet today at the second day of talks to discuss measures to stem the debt crisis, which led to what is already five countries of the euro area called for help. Earlier this month, Spain has agreed to accept a rescue loan of 100 billion euros to help recapitalize the banking sector.

The dollar index, since the decision of EU leaders have reduced investors' appetite for risky assets.

The yen fell against all major currencies, as rising U.S. bond yields helped to attract more money into dollar-denominated securities, which caused the weakening of the yen.

The Canadian dollar rose to a maximum of 30 November, as rising stocks and commodities caused the increased demand for higher-yielding assets.

17:00

U.S. stock indexes rose

U.S. Stocks have shown a significant increase today after European leaders agreed that reducing the concern for the banks fail. They also said they plan to establish a single supervisory authority for banks in the eurozone. They agreed that in the euro area mortgage fund should be able to directly raise capital to help banks without increasing public debt.

After this statement the shares Bank of America Corporation (BAC) rose by 4.1%. At the same time, Alcoa Inc (AA) added more than 1.65% as the price of goods rose amid falling U.S. dollar. Shares of the company Nike Inc (NKE), which is the largest sporting goods company, fell 7.39% to 89.73% after a report showed an unexpected decline in profits for the first time since 2009.

U.S. stocks continued to rise even after data showed U.S. consumer spending was unchanged in May, and the final index of sentiment, University of Michigan fell to 73.2 in June from 79.3.

As part of DOW index, all but one of the company show a positive trend. The leaders of the growth of United Technologies Corp. (UTX, +3.77%), Boeing Co. (BA, +3.24%), Bank of America Corporation (BAC, 3.10%), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, 2.87%). Reducing the company's stock show only JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, -0,53%).

Branches in the context of the S & P 500 all the sectors show significant growth .. It is better to look all sectors of industrial goods (2.9%), building materials (+2.8%) and the conglomerate sector (2.7%). The smallest increase in the municipal sector shows (0.5%)

Shares of Ford Motor Co (F) fell 4.56% to $ 9.63. The second-largest automaker in the U.S. said that operating profit before tax would be "significantly lower" in the second quarter because of losses abroad have tripled during the first three months of the year.

Shares of Research In Motion Ltd (RIM) fell to $ 7.67 after reporting a loss and delay the next operating system BlackBerry. It was also stated that the company will cut 5,000 jobs.

16:30

Oil Rises From Nine-Month Low

Oil rebounded from the lowest close in almost nine months in New York on speculation that European measures aimed at fighting the region’s debt crisis will spur demand for fuel.

Crude posted its steepest intraday gain in eight months, increasing as much as 4.5 percent and trimming the biggest quarterly decline since the final three months of 2008. Oil gained after euro-area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy. Prices may advance after the European Union’s ban on the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian crude starts on July 1, a Bloomberg survey showed. Norway’s first industrywide energy strike since 2004 is in its sixth day.

Oil extended gains after EU President Herman Van Rompuy said European leaders at a summit in Brussels agreed to drop the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks give their governments preferred creditor status. Banks can also be recapitalized directly with funds rather than going through governments and leaders discussed ways to reduce the risk premiums on Italian and Spanish bonds, he said.

Sixteen of 42 analysts, or 38 percent surveyed by Bloomberg News, forecast New York crude will increase through July 6. Fourteen predicted that futures will decline and 12 said there will be little change in prices.

Oil may rebound to as high as $90 a barrel if prices hold above a support level near $75, according to technical analysis by Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of Iitrader.com in Chicago.

August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX today rose $ 4.6 to $ 82.29 a barrel

August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $ 3.39 to $ 95.38 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

16:00

FTSE 100 5,571.15 +78.09 +1.42% CAC 40 3,196.65 +144.97 +4.75% DAX 6,416.28 +266.37 +4.33%

15:33

Gold rallies after EU summit

Gold prices rallied 3 percent on Friday and were on track to end June with their first monthly rise in five as a deal to shore up banks and cut borrowing costs at a European Union summit sparked a surge in assets seen as higher risk.

Euro zone leaders agreed to take emergency action to bring down Italy's and Spain's spiraling borrowing costs and to create a single supervisory body for euro zone banks by the end of this year, a first step towards a European banking union.

The news sparked a sharp rally in European shares and a near $4-a-barrel gain in oil prices.

Spot gold was up 3 percent at $1,596.76 an ounce at 9.03 a.m. EDT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up $47.40 an ounce at $1,597.70.

Still, the metal stayed on track for its biggest quarterly drop since the three months to September 2008, down 4.3 percent since end March. In that period, the dollar rose and hopes faded that the Federal Reserve would unveil further monetary easing.

The event that could trigger the spark that puts some life back into gold is however difficult to find at the moment, so before we move higher, there is a risk that we need to clear the table, which could be triggered by a move below $1,500

The July gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1597.8 dollars per ounce.

15:01

Dow +208.01 12,810.27 +1.65% Nasdaq +60.82 2,910.31 +2.13% S&P +23.77 1,352.81 +1.79%

14:26

Tech on S&P futures

Resistance of 3:1410 (high of May)

Resistance of 2:1370 (May 7 high)

Resistance of 1:1355 (high of June)

Current Price: 1348.75

Support 1:1337 (MA (55) for D1)

Support 2:1328 (earlier resistance, Jun 27-28 highs)

Support 3:1300 (area of Jun 8, 12-13 and 25-26 lows)

13:56

U.S.: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, June 73.2 (forecast 74.3)

13:45

U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , June 52.9 (forecast 53.1)

13:38

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2725

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.35

GBP/USD $1.5440, $1.5800

AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0020, $1.0025

13:36

US Stocks open: Dow 12,791.43 +189.17 +1.50%, Nasdaq 2,900.42 +50.93 +1.79%, S&P 1,350.01 +20.97 +1.58%

13:27

Before the bell: S&P futures +1.85%, Nasdaq futures +1.89%

U.S. stock futures rallied as European leaders agreed on measures to ease the burden on the region’s weakest economies.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 9,006.78 +132.67 +1.50%

Hang Seng 19,441.46 +416.19 +2.19%

Shanghai Composite 2,225.43 +29.59 +1.35%

FTSE 5,609.58 +116.52 +2.12%

CAC 3,166.57 +114.89 +3.76%

DAX 6,374.33 +224.42 +3.65%

Crude oil $81.67 (+5.12%)

Gold $1597.70 (+3.05%)

13:00

European session:

Data:

05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (finally) Quarter I +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted May +0.6% +0.1% -0.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y May -3.8% -1.1%

06:45 France Consumer spending May +0.6% 0.0% +0.4%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y May +0.4% +0.1% +0.6%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator June 0.81 0.88 1.16

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y May +2.5% +2.4% +2.9%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) June +2.4% +2.4% +2.4%

The euro rose after European leaders eased terms on loans to Spanish banks, taking a step toward resolving the region’s debt crisis and boosting demand for the shared currency.
The common currency advanced as European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said officials meeting in Brussels agreed to drop the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks give creditor governments preferred status.
Spain’s 10-year bond yield fell to 6.6%. Italy’s 10-year yield slid 23 basis points to 5.96%.

EUR/USD: during most part of European session, the pair consolidated in $1.2550 - $1.2630. Later the pair rose above.

GBP/USD: the pair retreated to $1.5570 area, but later came back above $1.5600.

USD/JPY: the pair retreated to Y79.50 area.