Forex-novosti i prognoze od 02-07-2012

The dollar rose against the euro as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, indicating a mainstay of the nation’s economic expansion may be faltering and stoking investor demand for safety. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index contracted for the first time in almost three years.

The euro reversed its biggest gain versus the yen in more than 15 months as data showed unemployment in the 17 countries sharing the currency climbed to a record in May.

The euro slid against the dollar and yen as the jobless rate in the 17-nation currency bloc rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent in April, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. It was the highest since the data series started in 1995.

European stocks rose to the highest in eight weeks as investors bet central banks will add to measures unveiled by the region’s governments to contain the sovereign-debt crisis and data from China and Japan fueled optimism Asia will drive global growth.

In China, the government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.2 in June from 50.4 in May, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported yesterday. That beat the 49.9 median estimate in survey of 24 economists.

A separate PMI, compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Market Economics, posted a final reading of 48.2 in June compared with 48.4 in May, according to figures released today.

In Japan, large manufacturers became less pessimistic as declines in commodity prices aided profitability, boosting the outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy.

The quarterly Tankan index of sentiment was minus 1 in June from minus 4 in March, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo.

National benchmark indexes advanced in all of the 18 western European markets except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 climbed 1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 1.1 percent. Germany’s DAX increased 1.1 percent.

Invensys, which makes software that runs the London Underground trains, gained 1.7 percent to 226.5 pence. China South Locomotive is in the early stages of planning a possible 2 billion-pound ($3.14 billion) takeover bid for the company, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

Aviva advanced 3.7 percent to 282.6 pence. John McFarlane is taking over the position of chairman from Colin M. Sharman, who is retiring, the company said.

Oil fell after manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank for the first time in almost three years in June.

Prices tumbled as much as 3.4 percent as the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. Euro-area unemployment reached the highest level on record in May, the European Union’s statistics office said today. Oil’s decline followed a 9.4 percent jump June 29.

The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent in April, the EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest level since the data series started in 1995.

Unemployment climbed to 17.561 million people in May, an increase of 88,000 from the previous month, the report showed. Spain’s unemployment rate, the steepest in the EU, increased to 24.6 percent from 24.3 percent a month earlier.

Crude for August delivery dropped to $82.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The percentage gain was the biggest since March 12, 2009. Oil is down 17 percent this year.

Brent oil for August settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange fell $1.99, or 2 percent, to $95.81 a barrel.

The price of gold is reduced to the background of unfavorable macroeconomic data. Disappointing investors brought the report of the Institute for Supply Management index of business activity in U.S. industry (ISM index) in June 2012 decreased to 49.7 index points compared with the value for May 2012 to 53.5 points. An index value below 50 points indicates a decline in industrial production. The organization noted that the index fell below this level the first time since July 2009 Meanwhile, analysts predicted that the index will be 52.0 points.

Earlier, the markets reacted negatively to the weak data on unemployment in the 17 eurozone countries. Unemployment in the euro area in May of this year jumped to a record level in the history of collecting data in 1995 - 11.1%, which increases the likelihood of reducing the base interest rate by European Central Bank (ECB) this week.

The next meeting of the ECB will be held on July 5 and, according to analysts, the European Central Bank will reduce the rate by 0.25 percentage points - to a record low of 0.75% per annum.

August gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1587.4 dollars per ounce.

As reported today, the Greek government, the country received the last tranche of the E1-billion bail-credit. Means an agreement on the allocation of which was reached in May, have been paid through the EFSF.

Earlier today, a representative of the Governing Council of the ECB Joerg Asmussen urged affected countries to adhere to eurozone reforms required "Troika", instead of trying to revise the terms of salvation.

Resistance 3: 1660 (MA (200) for D1)
Resistance of 2:1640 (high of June, MA (100) for D1)
Resistance of 1:1607 (Jun 29 high)
Current Price: 1597.00
Support 1:1584 (38,2% FIBO of Friday’s growth)
Support 2:1577 (50,0% FIBO of Friday’s growth)
Support 3: 1570 (61,8% FIBO of Friday's growth) 

Resistance 3: 86.80 (high of June)

Resistance 2:85,10 (Jun 29 high)

Resistance 1:84,20 (intraday high)

Current Price: 83.02

Support 1:82,00 (38,2% FIBO Friday's growth)

Support 2:81,00 (50,0% FIBO Friday's growth)

Support 3:80,0 (61,8% FIBO Friday's growth, MA (200) for H1)

Resistance of 3:1410 (high of May)
Resistance of 2:1370 (May 7 high)
Resistance of 1:1362 (session high)
Current Price: 1352.75
Support 1:1336 (MA (55) for D1)
Support 2:1322 (MA (20) for D1)
Support 3:1300 (area of Jun 25-26 lows, MA (200) for D1)

U.S. stock futures are little changed as investors awaited data that may show manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in eight months.
Global Stocks:

Nikkei 9,003.48 -3.30 -0.04%

Hang Seng 19,441.46 +416.19 +2.19%

Shanghai Composite 2,226.11 +0.68 +0.03%

FTSE  5,598.53 +27.38 +0.49%

CAC  3,232.83 +36.18 +1.13%

DAX 6,478.3 +62.02 +0.97%

Crude oil: $83.65 (-1,56%)

Gold: $1593.00 (-0.70%)

DuPont (DD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. Shares of DD fell 0.73% to $50.20.

Data:

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May +0.1% +0.9% +6.2%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI June 45.4 44.6 48.1

07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 44.7 45.3 45.2

07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 45.2 44.7 45.0

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 45.1 44.8 45.1

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing June 45.9 46.7 48.6

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 11.0% 11.1% 11.1%

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2750, $1.2690/00
Bids $1.2610/00, $1.2560/50, $1.2540, $1.2500
 
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750, $1.5720
Bids $1.5610/00, $1.5580/70, $1.5550, $1.5525/20, $1.5500

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0320/30, $1.0300

Bids $1.0200, $1.0170/60, $1.0150, $1.0100

EUR/JPY

Offers Y101.50, Y101.00, Y100.85/90

Resistance 3: Y80.90 (50.0% FIBO Y84,20-Y77,60)

Resistance 2: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, May and June high)

Resistance 1: Y79.90 (June 27 high)

Current price: Y79.64

Support 1: Y79.10 (June 29 low)

Support 2: Y78.80 (June 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (June 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (June 4-5 and 28 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9595 (61.8% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, June 28 low)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9570 (MA (200) for H1, 50% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, intraday high on Jun 29)

Current price: Chf0.9516

Support 1: Chf0.9460 (June 29 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9420 (low of June)

Support 3: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)

 Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (high of June, 50,0% FIBO $ 1,6300 - $ 1,5270)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (June 21 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5680 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5677

Support 1: $ 1.5620/30 (MA (200) for H1, 38,2% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)

Support 2: $ 1.5570 (61.8% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)

Support 3: $ 1.5480/70 (June 14-15 and 28 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2820 (May 21 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2740 (high of June)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2690 (Jun 29 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2637
Support 1: $ 1.2580 (38.2% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690, Jun 22 high)
Support 2: $ 1.2550 (MA (200) for H1, 50,0% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 3: $ 1.2520 (MA (100) for H1, 61,8% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)

European stocks rose as better-than-forecast manufacturing data in Japan and China boosted optimism Asia will drive global growth.

Currently:

FTSE 5,616.97    +45.82    +0.82%

DAX 6,498.93 +82.65    +1.29%

CAC 3,242.00    +45.35     +1.42%

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y80.00

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2700, $1.2750

GBP/USD $1.5650, $1.5700

AUD/USD $.0000, $1.0130, $1.0200, $1.0300

Asian stocks rose for a fourth day as better-than-estimated economic reports from China to Japan and steps by European leaders to address the sovereign-debt crisis eased concern global growth is slowing.

Nikkei 225 9,003.48 -3.30 -0.04%

S&P/ASX 200 4,133 +38.37 +0.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,226.11 +0.68 +0.03%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, climbed 1 percent after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing was stronger than expected.

TDK Corp., a Japanese manufacturer of electronic parts that gets almost 30 percent of its revenue from China, gained 2 percent.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd., an Australian manufacturer of gaming machines, slumped 11 percent after reporting preliminary earnings for the first half of this year.

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 48.4 48.1 48.2

06:30 Australia Commodity Prices, Y/Y June -9.9% -10.5

The euro rose against the dollar after European leaders have lowered credit conditions for Spanish banks, taking a step to resolving the debt crisis in the region and increased demand for Eurocurrency.

President of the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy said that officials at a meeting in Brussels agreed to waive the condition that emergency loans for Spanish banks will be provided with privileged conditions.

EU leaders will meet today at the second day of talks to discuss measures to stem the debt crisis, which led to what is already five countries of the euro area called for help. Earlier this month, Spain has agreed to accept a rescue loan of 100 billion euros to help recapitalize the banking sector.

The dollar index, since the decision of EU leaders have reduced investors' appetite for risky assets.

The yen fell against all major currencies, as rising U.S. bond yields helped to attract more money into dollar-denominated securities, which caused the weakening of the yen.

The Canadian dollar rose to a maximum of 30 November, as rising stocks and commodities caused the increased demand for higher-yielding assets.

Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest gain since December, after European leaders meeting in Brussels agreed to ease repayment rules for Spanish banks and make it easier to recapitalize the region’s troubled lenders.

Nikkei 225 9,006.78 +132.67 +1.50%

S&P/ASX 200 4,094.6 +49.76 +1.23%

Shanghai Composite 2,224.12 +28.27 +1.29%

Westpac Banking Corp. rose 1.5 percent in Sydney as banks provided the biggest support to the Asian benchmark after leaders of the 17 euro countries dropped a requirement that governments get preferred creditor status on crisis loans to Spain’s banks.

Toyota Motor Corp. advanced 2.6 percent, leading gains among Japanese exporters.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, climbed 2.3 percent as metals prices soared.

On the last day of the week the price of gold played the uncertain dynamics of the previous four sessions.
On Friday, the markets cheered came early in the morning with the news of the EU summit that European leaders have endorsed the use of EFSM for direct recapitalization of banks experiencing financial difficulties, which is especially beneficial for virtually paralyzed the banking system in Spain. This means, in addition, that will be established a single supervisory authority, initially controlled by the ECB, which is also quite a big step towards a unified banking union. Many doubt that the funds of EU financial assistance will be enough. However, it seems at the moment the markets are satisfied with the expected increase in financial aid package, making an important decision on the direct infusion of funds into troubled banks the euro area, as well as removing the status of "seniority" with government loans, payments that were previously carried out in priority to payments private bondholders.
The leaders of the eurozone on Thursday pleased investors by agreeing to take urgent measures to reduce the rapidly rising cost of borrowing in Italy and Spain and to establish a single supervisory authority for banks to euro-zone by the end of this year.
This news caused the rise of European stock markets, the euro and the oil and decrease in bond yields in Spain and Italy, but analysts warn that the growth markets will be short-lived.
For the second quarter spot price of gold fell by 5.87%, the worst result since the second quarter of 2004, due to the growth of the dollar. After a 11-year price increases, reaching a historical high of $ 1.920,30 per ounce in September 2011, gold is only slightly increased in price this year, trading at an average of $ 1,650 in the first half.
Demand for the physical market in India - the world's largest consumer of gold - a little rose on Friday by reducing prices. Traders are waiting for the onset of the rainy season, which determines the farmers' income. In rural areas account for 60% of the Indian demand for gold.
Sales of gold coins in the U.S. in the second quarter were down 39% compared to the first up to 127,500 ounces - its lowest level in four years.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high)

Resistance 1: Y80.00 (session high)

Current price: Y79.62

Support 1: Y79.35 (low of the European session on Jun 29)

Support 2: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9590 (Jun 28 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9570 (high of the European session on Jun 29)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9525 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9513

Support 1: Chf0.9460 (Jun 29 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9420/25 (area of  Jun 18-20 lows)

Support 3: Chf0.9365/75 (area of May 21-22 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5715 (Jun 29 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5662

Support 1: $ 1.5650 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5575 (low of the European session on Jun 29)

Support 3: $ 1.5470/85 (area of Jun 14 and 28 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2810/25 (area of May ​​21-22 highs)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2745 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2695 (Jun 29 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2625

Support 1: $ 1.2610 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2550 (low of the European session on Jun 29)

Support 3: $ 1.2525 (Jun 28 high)

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 48.4 48.1 48.2

06:30 Australia Commodity Prices, Y/Y June -9.9%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May +0.1% +0.9%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI June 45.4 44.6

07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 44.7 45.3

07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 45.2 44.7

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 45.1 44.8

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing June 45.9 46.7

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate May 11.0% 11.1%

12:30 Canada Bank holiday -

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (finally) June 54.0 53.0

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing June 53.5 52.1

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m May +0.3% +0.3%

17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -