Forex-novosti i prognoze od 27-06-2012

European stocks rose the most in a week after reports on U.S durable-goods orders and pending home sales beat estimates and speculation mounted that China will introduce additional economic stimulus.

Stocks climbed after a U.S report showed orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in May, easing concern that U.S. manufacturing is faltering. Separate data showed more Americans than forecast signed contracts to buy previously owned homes last month.

In China, a commentary in the China Securities Journal said the country may introduce “more proactive” policies to ensure stable growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The policies may include stabilizing foreign trade, expanding infrastructure investment and reducing tax.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces demands from other euro-area nations for more drastic measures to fight the region’s sovereign-debt crisis, as EU leaders prepare for the two-day summit. One such proposal calls for collective debt sales through euro bonds.

National benchmark indexes advanced in all 18 western European markets before the European Union summit beginning tomorrow in Brussels. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.3 percent, France’s CAC 40 rose 1.4 percent and Germany’s DAX Index gained 1.3 percent.

A gauge of European bank shares rose 2.5 percent for the largest contribution to the Stoxx 600’s advance. Lloyds gained 3.5 percent to 31.16 pence after the Financial Times reported the lender may sell 630 branches to Co-Operative Group Ltd. as early as today.

Barclays Plc added 1.9 percent to 196.05 pence. The lender has agreed to pay 290 million pounds ($452 million) in penalties to settle U.S. and U.K. investigations into whether it sought to rig the London and euro interbank offered rates. Chief Executive Officer Bob Diamond and other executives will forgo their annual bonuses this year, the bank said.

K+S AG, Europe’s biggest potash producer, jumped 6.9 percent to 34.92 euros after analysts raised their ratings on the stock. Bank of America Corp. upgraded the stock to buy from underperform, while BHF-Bank raised its recommendation to overweight from market weight.

Salzgitter AG tumbled 4.9 percent to 32.50 euros, the lowest since September 2005, after saying its steel unit may not break even this year, citing “notably negative” impact on demand for rolled steel. The company said on May 15 it saw positive 2012 pretax earnings.

The euro approached the lowest level against the dollar in more than two weeks after German Chancellor Angela Merkel dimmed expectations European leaders will solve the region’s debt crisis when they meet tomorrow.

The 17-nation currency pared its advance versus the yen after Italian borrowing costs increased at a bill sale. Merkel responded to a Spanish plea by saying joint euro-area bonds are the “wrong way” to achieve integration, while Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called for stronger fiscal discipline.

Speaking three hours after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy made a plea for a two-day summit of European leaders in Brussels to use all available tools to help Spain service its debt, Merkel said euro bonds, euro bills and debt redemption funds are unconstitutional in Germany and economically “wrong and counterproductive.”

The pound fell against all of its major counterparts as U.K. mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in more than a year. The British pound weakened after the number of loans granted to buy homes dropped 5.8 percent last month to 30,238, the least since April 2011, supporting the case for the central bank to resume an expansion of stimulus measures. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told lawmakers yesterday he voted for more so-called quantitative easing this month because of a deteriorating global economic outlook.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, amid better-than-estimated data on housing and durable-goods orders.

Equities rallied amid signs the real estate industry is firming three years after the start of the economic recovery. Orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in May, easing concern that U.S. manufacturing is faltering.

Stocks rose in Europe and Asia for the first time in five days amid speculation China will add to economic stimulus and Italian bonds gained after a debt sale ahead of a June 28-29 European Union summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel shut the door to joint euro-area bonds as a means of lowering Spain’s borrowing costs, saying they are the “wrong way” to achieve the greater European integration needed to stem the debt crisis.

Monsanto added 2.5 percent to $79.83. Sales of corn seed and genetic licenses rose 35 percent as U.S. farmers planted the biggest crop in 75 years. Soybean sales gained 15 percent, driven by demand for the newest seed engineered to tolerate Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Hugh Grant also is expanding in Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Bristol-Myers gained 1.8 percent to $35.13 after it authorized $3 billion in additional repurchases to be made over the “next couple years.” The new phase of the buyback program, announced in a statement today by the New York-based drugmaker, gives the company the ability to repurchase $3.34 billion of an estimated $58.3 billion in stock.

Facebook slid 1.2 percent to $32.72. The firms starting coverage on the company include its lead underwriter, Morgan Stanley.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc. tumbled 15 percent to $82.28. The retailer of auto parts, tools and accessories sank the most in more than a decade after saying sales growth was slower than expected and second-quarter profit will be on the lower end of the company’s forecast range.

Oil futures pared gains after the Energy Department said gasoline stockpiles increased more than twice as much as expected last week.

Gasoline inventories climbed 2.08 million barrels last week as refineries raised their production levels to a five-year high, Energy Department data showed. Stockpiles were forecast to gain 1 million barrels. Crude inventories fell less than expected.

Gasoline stockpiles increased to 204.8 million barrels in the week ended June 22, the highest level since the period through May 4, the Energy Department reported.

Refineries raised their utilization rate to 92.6 percent, up from the previous week’s 91.9 percent and the highest level since July 2007, the report showed.

Oil rose as much as 2 percent earlier after the Commerce Department reported orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in May. More Americans than forecast signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes in May, the National Association of Realtors reported.

Durable goods bookings rose 1.1 percent, the first increase in three months, the Commerce Department reported.

Crude oil for August delivery advanced to $80.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for August settlement increased 23 cents to $93.25 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, after surging 2.2 percent yesterday.

Gold is cheaper against the depreciation of the euro and oil prices, because investors do not expect a breakthrough in the fight against the debt crisis of the euro area EU summit.

Central banks in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Turkey in May, increased gold reserves for a total of more than 25 tons, according to the IMF.

Demand for the physical market in India - the world's largest consumer of gold - a record low due to high prices in the domestic market, but the award in Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore are stable, according to traders.

According to the three major mints in Europe and North America, sales of gold coins dropped in the first quarter, but gold-stock ETF-fund on Monday, rose to 70.63 million ounces - a peak from mid-March, according to Reuters.

August gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1563.1 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1355 (high of June)

Resistance of 2:1340 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance of 1:1330 (Jun 22 high, MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: 1324.00

Support 1:1302 (Jun 25-26 lows)

Support 2:1298 (Jun 8 and 12 lows)

Support 3:1265 (low of June)

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.30, Y79.50, Y79.65, Y79.70

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2530, $1.2545, $1.2550

GBP/USD $1.5650, $1.5655

USD/CHF Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $0.9900, $1.0010, $1.0050, $1.0100, $1.0150

U.S. stock futures were little changed after a report showed orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast and as investors awaited housing data.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,730.49 +66.50 +0.77%

Hang Seng 19,176.95 +195.11 +1.03%

Shanghai Composite 2,216.93 -5.13 -0.23%

FTSE 5,479.74 +32.78 +0.60%

CAC 3,025.15 +12.44 +0.41%

DAX 6,152.31 +15.62 +0.25%

Crude oil $79.73 (+0.47%)

Gold $1565.20 (-0.62%)

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2600, $1.2580/85, $1.2560, $1.2550, $1.2520
Bids $1.2480, $1.2450/40, $1.2400

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5695/00, $1.5670/75, $1.5650/55
Bids $1.5600, $1.5585/75, $1.5550, $1.5525/20

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0200, $1.0190, $1.0150, $1.0125/30, $1.0100
Bids $1.0000, $0.9980, $0.9970/65, $0.9950

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.30/40, Y80.00, Y79.80, Y79.65/70
Bids Y79.20, Y79.00

EUR/JPY
Offers Y100.50, Y100.35/40, Y100.15/20, Y100.00, Y99.90
Bids Y99.20, Y98.85/75, Y98.50

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8075/90, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8035/40, stg0.8020/25
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950, stg0.7900

Resistance 3: Y80.90 (50.0% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 2: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, highs of May and June)

Resistance 1: Y79.90 (MA (100) for H1)

Current price: Y79.64

Support 1: Y79.20 (Jun 26 low)

Support 2: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (area of ​​peaks of 2011 and 2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9680 (area of ​​peaks Jun 4-5)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9650 (Jun 12 and 26 high)
Current price: Chf0.9607
Support 1: Chf0.9580 (Jun 26 low, MA (100) for H1)
Support 2: Chf0.9540 (MA (200) for H1)
Support 3: Chf0.9500 (earlier resistance, Jun 20 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (Jun 20 high, 50,0% FIBO $ 1,6300 - $ 1,5260)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5640/50 (session high, Jun 26 high, MA (200) for H1)
Current Price: $ 1.5631
Support 1: $ 1.5600 (MA (100) for H1)
Support 2: $ 1.5540 (Jun 25 low)
Support 3: $ 1.5470 (Jun 14-15 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2740 (Jun 18 and 20 highs)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2580 (area of of MA (200) for H1 and Jun 25 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2530 (Jun 26 high, MA (100) for H1)
Current Price: $ 1.2494
Support 1: $ 1.2440 (Jun 12 low)
Support 2: $ 1.2410 (Jun 5 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2290 (low of June)

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.30, Y79.50, Y79.65, Y79.70

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2530, $1.2545, $1.2550

GBP/USD $1.5650, $1.5655

USD/CHF Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $0.9900, $1.0010, $1.0050, $1.0100, $1.0150

Sold E9.0bln vs target E9.0bln.

E9.0bln 6-month BOT, avg yield 2.957% (2.104%), cover 1.62 (1.61)

Asian stocks rose, snapping a four- day decline, as speculation the U.S. housing market is bottoming and China may step up economic stimulus tempered concern that the 19th summit on Europe’s debt crisis in three years won’t result in progress toward a resolution.

Nikkei 225 8,730.49 +66.50 +0.77%

S&P/ASX 200 4,043.2 +29.90 +0.74%

Shanghai Composite 2,214.84 -7.22 -0.33%

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the biggest Chinese developer by market value listed in Hong Kong, climbed 3.8 percent.

Techtronic Industries Ltd., which makes 72 percent of its sales in North America, gained 2.6 percent in Hong Kong.

Oracle Corp. Japan climbed the most in three months in Tokyo as its profit forecast topped estimates.

The yen strengthened against most of its major peers as Europe’s fiscal crisis loomed over a second day of debt sales in Italy, supporting demand for refuge assets. Italy is scheduled to auction 9 billion euros ($11 billion) of 185-day bills today, followed by sales of five- and 10-year bonds tomorrow totaling 5.5 billion euros. The nation’s 10-year yields climbed to a five-month high of 6.34 percent on June 14, nearing the 7 percent level that spurred Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts.

Italy sold zero-coupon notes yesterday maturing in 2014 to yield 4.712 percent, the most this year. Investors bid for 1.65 times the amount offered, the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since November.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet today in Paris before a two-day European Union summit in Brussels. The EU summit starting tomorrow is the first meeting of European leaders since pro-bailout parties in Greece won at parliamentary elections on June 17. France and Italy are urging Germany to help end the debt crisis, now in its third year.

Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest level in more than a week against the yen as Spanish and Italian borrowing costs rose amid concern a European Union summit this week will fail to solve the sovereign-debt crisis.

Italy sold 2.99 billion euros of zero-coupon notes due in May 2014 at a yield of 4.71 percent, more than the 4.04 percent paid on May 28. Spain auctioned 3.08 billion euros of bills, with three-month securities yielding 2.36 percent, compared with 0.85 percent at the previous auction.

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 28 Spanish banks yesterday, citing the country’s sovereign debt and rising real estate losses.

The 17-nation currency slid against the dollar, reaching its lowest point since June 8, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted saying she expects no shared debt liability in her lifetime.

The greenback weakened against the yen after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell for a fourth month in June, reaching a five-month low. Japan’s currency strengthened versus most of its major peers on haven appeal.

Asian stocks fell for a fourth day on concern a meeting of European Union leaders this week will fail to tame the region’s debt crisis and as HSBC Holdings Plc joined Citigroup Inc. in cutting growth forecasts for China.

Nikkei 225 8,663.99 -70.63 -0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,013.3 -14.51 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,218.32 -5.79 -0.26%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, slid 1.4 percent as investors sold shares with earnings tied to economic growth.

Nippon Sheet Glass Co., the company on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average that relies most on Europe for sales, fell 4.5 percent.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd. climbed 3 percent as the Australian Financial Review reported that billionaire Nathan Tinkler may unveil an offer of more than $5 billion for the coal producer as soon as next week.

Resistance 3: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.00 (Apr 22 high, psychological level)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (Jun 26 high)

Current price: Y79.46

Support 1: Y79.20 (Jun 26 low)

Support 2: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (Jun 26 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9625 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9606

Support 1: Chf0.9580 (Jun 26 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9540 (Jun 22 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9500 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5650 (Jun 26 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5634

Support 1: $ 1.5575 (low of the U.S. session on Jun 26)

Support 2: $ 1.5535 (Jun 25 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5510 (low of the U.S. session on Jun 15)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2635 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2585 (Jun 22 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2530 (Jun 26 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2499

Support 1: $ 1.2480 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2440 (Jun 26 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2405 (Jun 5 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,573 -16 -0.99%

Oil 79.48 +0.27 +0.34%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,663.99 -70.63 -0.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,013.3 -14.51 -0.36%

Shanghai Composite 2,218.32 -5.79 -0.26%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2491 -0,08%

GBP/USD $1,5634 +0,42%

USD/CHF Chf0,9613 +0,08%

USD/JPY Y79,49 -0,20%

EUR/JPY Y99,30 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y124,27 +0,23%

AUD/USD $1,0058 +0,52%

NZD/USD $0,7907 +0,43%

USD/CAD C$1,0241 -0,49%

06:00 Germany Import prices May -0.5% -0.5%

06:00 Germany Import prices Y/Y May +2.3% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals May 32.4 32.8

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance June 21 14

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) June -0.2% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders May +0.2% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation May -0.6% +1.0%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense May -1.9% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) May -5.5% +1.3%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +2.9

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y May +5.8% +3.1%