Forex-novosti i prognoze od 25-06-2012

Euro weakens on expectations the European summit, which should take place at the end of the week, and due to the fact that Italy and Spain are preparing to sell debt amid fears the financial crisis in Europe.

The decrease in the euro also contributed to the information that German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the joint evrobloka for bonds and bills. Also, she was opposed to funding the European authorities in Cyprus.

The yen strengthened, as the increased demand for the assets of the asylum, and fell to the share price.

Commodity currencies such as Canadian and Australian dollar dropped today against most major currencies as crude oil futures fell.

Billionaire investor George Soros' stated that there is disagreement on the financial side, and if they are not resolved within the next three days, that the summit could fail, leading to death.

In accordance with State Street Corp euro is likely to fall to $ 1.20 by the end of the year, as the debt crisis worsens in Europe. Investors should sell the euro and buy the U.S. dollar. The dollar will strengthen, as the prospect of further asset purchases by the Federal Reserve less likely.

European stocks decline third day on fears that the summit of regional leaders this week will not lead to drastic measures to contain the debt crisis.

Shares of Unicredit SpA (UCG) and BNP Paribas (BNP) have fallen by at least 5%. Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) lost 11% amid rumors that Samsung Electronics Co. incomes can be exactly like above analysts' forecasts. Shire Plc (SHP) fell by 11% after regulators approved its version of the second drug selling.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 1.5% to 242.82, and 2.7% in the last three on the background data on an index of German business confidence, which fell to a two-year low, increasing fears of eurozone sovereign debt crisis

We also learned that Angela Merkel has rejected the opportunity to exchange debt for the solution of the financial crisis in the peripheral countries, and stated that it would be economically wrong and counterproductive.

National indexes fell in all 18 regions of Western Europe. The CAC 40 fell by 2,2%, FTSE 100 by 1.1%, while Germany's DAX lost 2.1%. ASE index in Greece fell to 6.8%.

U.S. stocks fell, as there are fears that the upcoming EU summit will not solve the problems of the debt crisis. Billionaire investor George Soros has urged Europe to create a fund for the purchase of Italian and Spanish bonds, and warned that it is necessary to resort to drastic measures if the EU leaders can not agree on the EU summit.

Signs of slowing growth and concern about the crisis in Europe caused a reduction of inventories by nearly 7.6%. The data showed that today, the demand for new homes the USA has more than forecast in May, as mortgage rates have fallen.

Sales of single-family housing rose in May to two years maximum. At the same time, house prices rose last year amid falling supply.

Ministry of Commerce announced that sales of the seasonally adjusted rose by 7.6% to 369,000 units on an annualized basis, showing the highest level since April 2010.

Compared with May of last year, sales of new homes rose by 19.8%.

The housing market is showing signs of recovery, despite the fact that the overall economy is weakening. According to this, it is expected that housing will affect the growth of GDP, and shows the first increase since 2005.

As part of DOW index all companies, except for one traded in the red. Most of all, lose Bank of America Corporation (BAC, -3,9%), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, -2,9%), Intel Corporation (INTC, -2,9%) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, -2 , 77%)

Branches in the context of the S & P 500 all the sectors show a negative trend. Worst of all is the basic materials sector (-2.6%) and the financial sector (-2.2%). The smallest decline shows the housing sector (-0.6%).

Shares of Pfizer Inc (PFE) fell 1.36% to $ 22.42, while Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) fell by 4.09% to $ 33.92 as the company said it has completed all their research and will not be long feud to produce new products.

Shares of the largest social network Facebook Inc (FB) of the operator, reduced 3.54% to $ 31.88. The price of shares fell by 22% over the previous two weeks.

Quotes of Old Republic International Corp. (ORI) fell 8.52% to $ 8.48 after canceling a plan to allocate their mortgage guarantees, because the company lacked the capital.

Shares of Quest Software Inc (QSFT) rose 5.1% to $ 27.57. Software maker, which agreed to be bought by a group led by Insight Venture Partners, said that he had received an offer to buy shares at a price of $ 27.50 in cash.

The debt crisis in Europe is putting pressure on corporate earnings and global scale. Company Procter & Gamble Co (PG) and Danone (BN) have reduced their forecasts and claim a reduction in profits this year.

Oil fell below $80 a barrel for a third day on concern that a meeting of European Union leaders this week will fail to check the region’s debt crisis, leading to a reduction in fuel demand.

Futures dropped as much as 2 percent as George Soros warned that a failure by EU leaders to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the bloc’s shared currency. Crude climbed earlier as oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico were shut because of Tropical Storm Debby. Prices slid as the storm moved toward Florida and away from energy fields.

Norwegian offshore workers shut two production platforms after talks on pensions and wages failed, curtailing output in Europe’s second-largest oil and gas producer after Russia.

The walkout by oil-platform workers, which is the first industrywide action since 2004, targets about 165,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, according to the Industry Energy and Lederne unions.

The cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX today declined to $ 78.33 a barrel. August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 1.49 to $ 90.06 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold prices edged lower on Monday, extending last week's sharp correction as the dollar firmed, but moves were muted ahead of a European Union summit later in the week and further economic data from the U.S.

The metal ended the last session in its worst weekly performance since May, down 3.5 percent after the U.S. authorities disappointed gold bulls by failing to launch more aggressive monetary policy measures, like quantitative easing   .

Further easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom, and weigh on the dollar. Investors are still waiting to see whether poor U.S. data will yet force the Fed to act.

Next week's June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is likely to be central to this, he said. An extremely poor report for May was the catalyst for gold's last rally above $1,600 an ounce.

Prior to that, markets are focused on this week's European summit meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.

European leaders will discuss specific steps towards a cross-border banking union, closer fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption fund, according to a document prepared for the meeting.

But muted expectations for the summit, together with concerns over global economic growth, prompted investors to scale back exposure to riskier assets on Monday.

The June gold futures on the COMEX is now worth 1572.90 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1338 (earlier support, area of Jun 20)

Resistance of 2:1330 (Jun high, MA (200) for H1)

Resistance of 1:1317 (earlier support, area of Jun 21-22 lows)

Current Price: 1307.75

Support 1:1298 / 94 (Jun 8 and 12  lows, MA (200) for D1)

Support 2:1265 (Jun 4 low)

Support 3:1242 (Dec 28-29 lows)

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2580, $1.2650, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.25, Y80.35, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5800

AUD/USD $0.9965, $1.0030, $1.0200

USD/CAD C$1.0110

The euro fell before Italy and Spain sell debt tomorrow amid concern Europe’s fiscal crisis is infecting bigger economies.

The common currency extended last week’s drop versus the dollar as billionaire investor George Soros said the euro may dissolve if European Union leaders fail to tame the financial turmoil at a June 28-29 summit.

The yen strengthened on demand for haven assets as stocks slid.

US data starts at  at 1400GMT by New Home Sales.

U.S. stock futures fell on concern a meeting of European leaders will fail to help contain the region’s debt crisis.

In the U.S., data may show that demand for new homes probably rose in May for the second month as mortgage rates dropped, bolstering the residential real-estate market while other parts of the economy cool, economists predicted.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,734.62 -63.73 -0.72%

Hang Seng 18,897.45 -97.68 -0.51%

Shanghai Composite 2,224.11 -36.76 -1.63%

Closed 745.22 -5.70 -0.76% 13

FTSE 5,468.4 -45.29 -0.82%

CAC 3,034.19 -56.71 -1.83%

DAX 6,160.88 -102.37 -1.63%

Crude oil $78.73 (-1.27%)

Gold $1572.70 (+0.37%)

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/700, $1.2650, $1.2620/30, $1.2600, $1.2580/85, $1.2510
Bids $1.2455/50, $1.2400

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5695/700, $1.5620/40, $1.5590/1.5600
Bids $1.5525/20, $1.5500, $1.5480/70, $1.5450

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0125/30, $1.0100, $1.0020/25
Bids $0.9970/65, $0.9950, $0.9900

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.00, Y80.80, Y80.30/35
Bids Y79.70, Y79.50, Y79.40/35

EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.35/40, Y101.15/20, Y101.00, Y100.75/80, Y100.50, Y100.15/20
Bids Y99.50, Y99.00, Y98.50

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8120/25, stg0.8100, stg0.8075/90
Bids stg0.8020, stg0.8010/00, stg0.7950

Resistance 3: Y81.70/80 (Apr 20 high, 61,8%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (50.0%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 1: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, highs of May and June)

Current price: Y79.81

Support 1: Y79.75/70 (session low, MA (100) for H1)

Support 2: Y79.45 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9680 (area of Jun 4-5 highs)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (Jun 12 high)
Current price: Chf0.9621
Support 1: Chf0.9590 (earlier resistance, Jun 22 high)
Support 2: Chf0.9540 (Jun 22 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9520 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5655 (MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5630 (MA (200) for H1, Jun 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5590 (session high)
Current Price: $ 1.5556
Support 1: $ 1.5540 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.5470 (Jun 14-15 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2740/50 (Jun 18 and 20 highs)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2630 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2520 (resistance line from Jun 20)
Current Price: $ 1.2484
Support 1: $ 1.2480 (session lows)
Support 2: $ 1.2440 (Jun 12 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (Jun low)

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2580, $1.2650, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.25, Y80.35, Y80.50

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5800

AUD/USD $0.9965, $1.0030, $1.0200

USD/CAD C$1.0110

Asian stocks fell as UBS AG cut its profit outlook for BHP Billiton Ltd. and the Bank for International Settlements said central banks are facing the limit of their ability to boost economic growth.

Nikkei 225 8,734.62 -63.73 -0.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,027.8 -20.41 -0.50%

Shanghai Composite 2,224.2 -36.68 -1.62%

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, led materials companies lower, sliding 1.4 percent.

Samsung Electronics Co. fell 4.2 percent, dragging technology stocks lower, as the world’s top mobile-phone maker investigated a complaint that one of its smartphones caught fire.

Billabong International Ltd., Australia’s largest surf-wear maker, slumped 34 percent after selling A$155 million ($155 million) of new shares.

The euro fell toward the lowest in more than a week before Italy and Spain sell debt tomorrow amid concern Europe’s fiscal crisis is infecting bigger economies. Italy is scheduled to sell inflation-linked securities maturing in 2016 and 2026 tomorrow as well as 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) of zero-coupon bonds. Spain will offer three- and six-month bills the same day.

The 17-nation currency halted a gain from the end of last week as billionaire investor George Soros warned the euro may dissolve if European Union leaders fail to curb the region’s debt crisis at a two-day summit. A summit in Brussels starting June 28 is the first meeting of European leaders since the Greek parliamentary elections on June 17. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras won on his pledge to seek relief from austerity measures imposed on the country while keeping the bailout funds flowing. The Greek prime minister won’t attend the meeting on the advice of his doctors after undergoing surgery to repair a detached retina.

The yen touched a two-month low against the dollar on speculation a plan to double Japan’s sales tax will widen divisions in the nation’s ruling party.

The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar after European Central Bank lowered margin requirements for banks. At the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the direct funding of banks violate the terms of the contract for the region.

Also on the depreciation of the euro affected the business climate index data in Germany. As it became known that the business sentiment in Germany decreased for the second consecutive month. In June the figure had fallen to its lowest level over the past two years, due to the fact that Europe's largest economy is experiencing the consequences of the debt crisis of the euro zone.

The data of this indicator was added the fear that the German economy is losing stamina and, perhaps, will reduce the level of GDP in the second quarter. Other data also point to a recession. Industrial activity is on the low level for the past three years.

The yen fell as the Japanese Lower House lawmakers prepared to vote for a bill that increases the sales tax by half.

The Canadian dollar rose after official data showed that the rate of inflation in Canada in May showed the slowest pace since June 2010, which was caused by the reduction of energy consumption and maintenance of the central bank of low-level production and rising prices.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for a one-week low, as raw-material suppliers dropped after commodities entered a bear market and reports on U.S. home sales and manufacturing missed estimates. Nikkei 225 8,798.35 -25.72 -0.29% Hang Seng 18,982.63 -282.44 -1.47% S&P/ASX 200 4,048.2 -39.37 -0.96% Shanghai Composite 2,260.88 -32.00 -1.40% BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 2.1 percent in Sydney. Samsung Electronics Co., the largest mobile-phone maker by sales, fell 3.7 percent in Seoul. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s No. 1 lender, lost 1.1 percent in Tokyo after 15 global banks were downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service. U.S. stocks rose, after yesterday’s selloff, as the downgrade of global banks by Moody’s Investors Service was followed by rallies in financial shares while the European Central Bank announced changes to its lending program. Morgan Stanley (MS) advanced 1.1 percent after the ratings firm cut the bank by two levels rather than a threatened three grades. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C), which were lowered to within two levels of junk, rose at least 0.4 percent. Facebook Inc. (FB) rallied 3 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. recommended buying the biggest social-networking company. None of the financial firms was cut more than Moody’s had forecast. Morgan Stanley’s long-term senior unsecured debt rating was reduced two grades to Baa1. The downgrades left Citigroup and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America as the lowest-rated banks among the 15 at Baa2. The prospect of downgrades had weighed on banks since Moody’s said Feb. 15 it was reviewing 17 banks with capital- markets operations because of fragile confidence and tighter regulations that pinched revenue. Pressure mounted as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis intensified. As part of the index DOW almost all companies show a positive trend. The leaders of the growth of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, +1,85%) and Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK, +1.75%) losing more than just Walt Disney Co (DIS), whose shares fell by 0.84%. Branches in the context of the S & P 500 in all sectors, except for one in the "green" zone. Best of all look the health sector (0.7%) and technology (+0.6%). Reducing shows only sector conglomerate (-0.1%)

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.85 (Apr 24 low)

Resistance 1: Y80.65 (session high)

Current price: Y80.32

Support 1: Y80.00 (Jun 22 low)

Support 2: Y79.70 (Jun 20 high)

Support 3: Y79.40 (Jun 21 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9650/55 (area of Jun 8-12 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9600 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (Jun 22 high)

Current price: Chf0.9575

Support 1: Chf0.9540 (Jun 22 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9500 (Jun 20 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9420/25 (area of Jun 18-21 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5655 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5635 (Jun 22 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5584

Support 1: $ 1.5555 (Jun 22 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5510 (low of the U.S. session on Jun 15)

Support 3: $ 1.5470/75 (area of Jun 14-15 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2745/50 (area of Jun ​​18-20 highs)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2635 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2585 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.2541

Support 1: $ 1.2520 (Jun 22 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2500 (psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.2435/45 (area of Jun 8-12 lows)

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales May 343 347

23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y May +0.2% +0.3%