Forex-novosti i prognoze od 21-06-2012

European stocks fell from their highest level in five weeks as the Federal Reserve cut its growth forecast for the U.S. economy and a survey indicated China’s manufacturing industry may shrink for an eighth month.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee yesterday extended its Operation Twist program, which aims to reduce borrowing costs. The Fed will swap $267 billion of short-term securities with longer-term debt through the end of 2012.

Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted for a fifth month in June, suggesting the economy may fail to grow in the current quarter. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries in the 17-nation euro area held at 46, the same reading as in May, London-based Markit Economics said today. Spain sold more debt than planned just three days after the country’s 10-year bond yields hit a euro-era record. The nation sold 2.2 billion euros ($2.8 billion) of two-, three- and five- year securities today, compared with a maximum target of 2 billion euros set for the auction.

National benchmark indexes dropped in 16 of the 18 western- European markets. France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.4 percent. Germany’s DAX sank 0.8 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slid 1 percent.

A gauge of European mining companies dropped for the first time in a week as a global commodity benchmark declined to its lowest level since 2010. BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, fell 3 percent to 1,819 pence. Anglo American lost 5.2 percent to 2,101 pence.

Invensys slumped 14 percent to 220 pence, its biggest decline since Jan. 13, after the British software and meters maker said it’s no longer in talks with Emerson Electric Co. or other potential suitors.

Air France-KLM Group rallied 5.5 percent to 3.63 euros, its highest price in more than a month, after announcing a plan to eliminate more than 5,000 jobs, equivalent to 10 percent of posts at the Air France unit.

The euro fell against the dollar after it was reported that Moody's may downgrade ratings of the largest banks in the world, including the British establishment. Most likely, the announcement will be made after the close of Wall Street. This course will be placed in a large scale to reduce the credit ratings of the leading institutions in the world. The agency has done so for some banks in European countries, including Spain and Italy. All this may increase the cost of debt capital and forcing banks to increase the amount of collateral for loans.

The pressure on the euro also had a weak data on indices of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, which was below forecasts.

The yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly a month. The pressure on the Japanese currency had reports of increasing pressure lawmakers in the ruling party in Japan at the Bank of Japan to take additional measures to stimulate the economy.

Contribute to the strengthening of the dollar results of the meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market, which were announced last night. Recall that the results of the two day meeting of the Fed rate on funds not changed. At the same time has increased the volume of the program Operational Twist on the $ 267 billion to $ 667 billion at the same time duration of the program extended to the end of 2012. It was also noted that if necessary, additional measures are taken. Since it was not reported anything new about the next round of quantitative easing, to which many had hoped, the demand for the dollar rose.

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  • Tightening of the Government of Canada rules of mortgage finance "adequate", "time"

  • "It may be appropriate" for a convolution of a monetary incentive

  • Downside risks for the euro area have become apparent, threaten global growth

  • Europe "is now stagnating"

  • Eurozone consider bold steps such as creating a bank union

  • Measures to recapitalize Spanish banks, according to the determination of the euro area

  • Carney warmly welcomes the tightening of the rules of mortgage finance

  • There is evidence that monetary stimulus in the U.S., the UK effectively

  • Long-term monetary union in Europe requires the banking union, perhaps - a fiscal union

  • "Encouraged" seriousness with which European leaders are in a situation

  • Commodity prices are expected to remain high for some time

U.S. stocks declined, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a second straight day, after a gauge of Philadelphia-area manufacturing unexpectedly fell while housing and jobless claims reports disappointed.

Equities fell amid concern about an economic slowdown as manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank in June at the fastest pace in almost a year. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes declined in May, while more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.

Measures of energy and raw material producers in the S&P 500 lost at least 1.7 percent. China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month in June, matching the streak during the global financial crisis, in a signal the government’s stimulus has yet to reverse the economy’s slowdown.

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, dropped 2.7 percent to $8.68. Halliburton Co. (HAL), the largest provider of hydraulic-fracturing services, decreased 2.9 percent to $28.72.

Bed Bath & Beyond declined 15 percent, the most ever on a closing basis, to $62.60. It said comparable-store sales in the first quarter rose 3 percent compared with 7 percent a year earlier.

Micron Technology Inc. retreated 5.6 percent to $5.78. The largest U.S. maker of computer memory reported a fourth consecutive quarterly loss after prices fell for chips used to store data in phones and tablets, crimping sales.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. surged 41 percent to $62.88, the highest level on record. The company won support from a U.S. advisory panel for its drug to treat a deadly blood cancer that affects 50,000 Americans.

Oil tumbled below $80 a barrel for the first time in eight months on weak economic data that increased concern that demand will slow with supplies at the highest level in almost 22 years.

Futures dropped as much as 2.3 percent as manufacturing slumped in the U.S., Europe and China and more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes declined in May. U.S. oil stockpiles rose last week to the most since 1990, the Energy Department reported yesterday.

Crude futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $79.25, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 6. Prices have slumped 27 percent from this year’s settlement high of $109.77 on Feb. 24.

Brent oil for August settlement decreased $1.82, or 2 percent, to $90.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium to West Texas Intermediate of $11.15 after closing at $11.24 yesterday, the lowest level since January.

Gold fell against the publication of macroeconomic data from the U.S., China and the eurozone.

As reported today, the U.S. Labor Department the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits on the basis of the reporting week, which ended June 16 amounted to 387 thousand, a decrease from the previous reporting period, two thousand hits. Nevertheless, the "new" unemployed in the U.S. in the reference week was more than expected. Thus, analysts predicted that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will exceed 383 thousand

The manufacturing sector in China, according to preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI), calculated to order HSBC, declined in June, the eighth consecutive month, while the rates of export orders and prices have been minimal since the beginning of 2009.

Forecasts of consumption look gloomy and Europe, where the yield of the 5-year bonds on Thursday in Spain rose to a 15-year high.

The Fed on Wednesday announced the extension of monetary incentives and said it is ready to do more to help the flagging U.S. economy. However, contrary to the hopes of some investors, the central bank refrained from the third phase of "quantitative easing".

The June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1572.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1400 (May 3 high)

Resistance of 2:1370 (May 7 high)

Resistance of 1:1355 (61,8% FIBO 1412-1265, Jun 19-20  highs)

Current price: 1342.50

Support 1:1338 / 36 (Jun 19-20 lows)

Support 2:1327 / 30 (Jun 18, MA (200) for H1)

Support 3:1298 (Jun 8 and 12 low)

EUR/USD $1.2575, $1.2600, $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.30

GBP/USD $1.5690

EUR/GBP stg0.7970

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200

U.S. stock futures fluctuated amid signs of a struggling labor market as more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,824.07 +71.76 +0.82%

Hang Seng 19,265.07 -253.78 -1.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,260.88 -32.00 -1.40%

FTSE 5,601.74 -20.55 -0.37%

CAC 3,139.74 +13.22 +0.42%

DAX 6,409.6 +17.47 +0.27%

Crude oil $80.28 (-1.44%)

Data:

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance May 1.33 1.97 2.48

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 44.7 44.6 45.3

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) June 45.1 45.2 47.3

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 45.2 45.4 44.7

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) June 51.8 51.6 50.3

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln April 9.1 7.3 4.6

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 45.1 44.9 44.8

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) June 46.7 46.5 46.8

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) May -2.3% +1.1% +1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) May -1.1% +2.1% +2.4%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance June -17 -19 -11

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2790/800, $1.2730/50  
Bids $1.2625/20, $1.2610/00, $1.2580/70

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0300, $1.0275/80, $1.0250, $1.0200/05
Bids $1.0115/10, $1.0105/00, $1.0080

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10/15
Bids Y79.40/35, Y79.05/00, Y78.65/60, Y78.50

EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.50, Y102.00, Y101.50
Bids Y100.55/50, Y100.00, Y99.85/80, Y99.55/50

Resistance 3: Y81.00 (61,8%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 2: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, highs of May)

Resistance 1: Y80.15 (May 22 high, 38,2% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Current price: Y78.98

Support 1: Y79.30 (Jun 18 high, MA (200) for H1)

Support 2: Y79.10 (MA (100) for H1)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9560 (Jun 18 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9530 (MA (200) for H1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9500 (session high, Jun 20 high)
Current price: Chf0.9460
Support 1: Chf0.9420/10 (Jun 18 low, 50,0% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)
Support 2: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9325 (61.8% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5900 (61,% FIBO $ 1,6290 - $ 1,5260)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5840 (MA (100) for D1, May 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5780 (session high, 50.0% FIBO $ 1,6290 - $ 1,5260)
Current price: $ 1.5714
Support 1: $ 1.5650 (session low, Jun 20 low)
Support 2: $ 1.5610 (Jun 19 low,  MA (200) for H1)
Support 3: $ 1.5470 (Jun 14-15 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2820 (May 21 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $1,3280 - $1,2290)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2740/50 (Jun 18 and 20 high)
Current price: $ 1.2674
Support 1: $ 1.2660 (MA (200) for H1)
Support 2: $ 1.2560 (Jun 18 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2440 (Jun 12 low)

EUR/USD $1.2575, $1.2600, $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2850

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.30

GBP/USD $1.5690

EUR/GBP stg0.7970

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200

Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a one-month high, as a survey showed China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month and after the Federal Reserve cut its U.S. growth estimate and expanded its Operation Twist program.

Nikkei 225 8,824.07 +71.76 +0.82%

S&P/ASX 200 4,087.6 -44.84 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,264.7 -28.18 -1.23%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 mobile-phone maker by sales that counts China and the U.S. as its biggest markets, dropped 2 percent in Seoul.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company and Australia’s No. 1 oil producer, declined 1.2 percent in Sydney as crude and copper futures fell.

Renesas Electronics Corp. gained 3.1 percent in Tokyo on a report that KKR & Co. and Silver Lake are in talks to invest in the chipmaker.

01:30 Australia RBA Bulletin Quarter II

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 48.4 48.1

The euro fell as Spain prepared to auction bonds today amid signs Europe’s debt crisis is blunting economic growth in the region. Spain is scheduled to auction notes today maturing 2014, 2015 and 2017. Earlier this week, in its first debt sale since becoming the fourth euro member to seek a bailout, Spain auctioned 12-month bills at an average yield of 5.074 percent, a record high in Bloomberg data going back to 2004.

The 17-nation currency snapped a two-day gain against the dollar and yen before a preliminary report today that may show European services and manufacturing contracted this month at the fastest pace in three years.

Demand for the dollar was limited after the Federal Reserve said it stands ready to implement further stimulus after announcing an extension of its program to replace short-term bonds with longer-term debt. The Fed said yesterday it will expand its so-called Operation Twist program, which seeks to lower borrowing costs by extending the average maturity of the securities in the central bank’s portfolio, by $267 billion through the end of the year. Central bank officials also cut their estimates for 2012 growth after last month’s slowdown in hiring and see little progress on unemployment during the rest of the year.

New Zealand’s dollar rose initially after a report showed the nation’s economy grew at the fastest pace in five years last quarter. Gross domestic product rose 1.1 percent in the three months ended March 31 from the previous quarter, when it expanded a revised 0.4 percent, Statistics New Zealand said.  It pared gains after preliminary data showed China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month in June. The 48.1 advance reading for a purchasing managers’ index for China released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today compares with a final 48.4 for May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. China is New Zealand’s second-largest export destination.

E699.6mln of 3.40% Apr 2014 Bono; cover 3.96

E917.6mln of 4.00% July 2015 Bono; cover 3.18 vs 3.02 previous

E602.3mln of 5.50% July 2017 Obligacion; cover 3.44 vs 3.14 previous

Yesterday the euro fluctuates against the dollar after the announcement of the results of a two-day meeting of the Committee to work on the open market, the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed decided to keep rates within the range of 0-0.25%, but the operation was extended twist - an operation aimed at lowering long-term interest rates by selling short-term bonds. Launched in September 2011, Operation Twist was to end in late June, but the FOMC announced its extension until the end of the year (or approximately $ 267 billion). Many experts expect more such solutions, rather than introducing QE3. The Fed reiterated that it "is ready to take further action if it is necessary to continue to support the growth of the economy and the labor market in the context of price stability."

After the initial growth of the dollar again came under downward pressure against the backdrop of recovery of stock markets. Currency also declined against its major competitors. Volatility also contributed to the strengthening of the statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the question of bond purchases Stabilization Fund may be discussed. These words helped the euro to update daily lows against the dollar.

The yen resumed its decline against the euro and the dollar after a brief recovery at the Fed decision. The yen fell sharply on Wednesday on reports that Japanese lawmakers are close to reaching an agreement on tax measures aimed at lowering the national currency.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its highest close in a month, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will expand stimulus measures and after the Group of 20 leaders pledged to support economic growth and help overcome Europe’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,752.31 +96.44 +1.11%

Hang Seng 19,529.58 +112.91 +0.58%

S&P/ASX 200 4,132.44 +9.11 +0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,292.88 -7.92 -0.34%

Sony Corp., Japan’s biggest exporter of consumer electronics, gained 3.5 percent after the country’s overseas shipments rose.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc. jumped 4.3 percent after the Japanese bank said it plans to boost overseas loans this year.

Consolidated Media Holdings Ltd. surged 9.7 percent in Sydney after News Corp. offered to buy Australia’s largest pay television network for A$2 billion ($2 billion).

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.75/80 (area of ​​Jun 8-13 highs)

Current price: Y79.59

Support 1: Y79.40 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.15 (Jun 19 high)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20  low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9555/65 (area of Jun 18-19 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9515 (low of Asian session on Jun 19)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9500 (Jun 20 high)

Current price: Chf0.9481

Support 1: Chf0.9420/25 (area of Jun 18-20 lows)

Support 2: Chf0.9365/75 (area of May 21-22 lows)

Support 3: Chf0.9330 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5850 (May 23 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5715 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5672

Support 1: $ 1.5650 (Jun 20 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5610/35 (area of Jun 18-19 lows)

Support 3: $ 1.5565 (Jun 14-15 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2870 (Jun 15 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2810/25 (area of ​​Jun 21-22 highs)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2745/50 (area of ​​Jun 18-20 highs)

Current Price: $ 1.2668

Support 1: $ 1.2635 (Jun 20 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2555/65 (area of Jun 18-19 lows)

Support 3: $ 1.2515 (low of U.S. session on Jun 13)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,608 -15 -0.94%

Oil 81.06 -2.97 -3.53%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,752.31 +96.44 +1.11%

Hang Seng 19,529.58 +112.91 +0.58%

S&P/ASX 200 4,132.44 +9.11 +0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,292.88 -7.92 -0.34%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2698 +0,08%

GBP/USD $1,5707 -0,12%

USD/CHF Chf0,9456 -0,07%

USD/JPY Y78,47 -0,65%

EUR/JPY Y100,90 +0,67%

GBP/JPY Y124,81 +0,51%

AUD/USD $1,0184 -0,09%

NZD/USD $0,7957 -0,30%

USD/CAD C$1,0187 +0,10%

01:30 Australia RBA Bulletin Quarter II

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 48.4

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance May 1.33 1.97

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 44.7 44.6

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) June 45.1 45.2

07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (QoQ) Quarter I +7.9% -7.5%

07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter I -1.4% 0.0%

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 45.2 45.4

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) June 51.8 51.6

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln April 9.1 7.3

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) June 45.1 44.9

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) June 46.7 46.5

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) May -2.3% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) May -1.1% +2.1%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance June -17 -19

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m April +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m April +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Leading Indicators, m/m May +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 386 381

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence June -19.3 -19.8

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales May 4.62 4.59

14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey June -5.8 1.3

14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators May -0.1% +0.2%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m April +1.8% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y April +2.7%

15:45 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -

16:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

17:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Weale Speaks -