Forex-novosti i prognoze od 18-06-2012

European stocks were little changed as the yield on Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond climbed above 7 percent, amid fading optimism that Greece’s election will calm the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Spain’s 10-year government bond yields rose as much as 41 basis points to 7.29 percent, the most since the country started using the euro in 1999.

The New Democracy and Pasok parties won enough seats to form a majority in the 300-member parliament, according to the Greek parliament’s speaker, easing concern that the country’s voters would reject the austerity measures needed to qualify for international aid.

National benchmark indexes declined in 10 of the 18 western-European (SXXP) markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX increased 0.3 percent. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.7 percent.

Cable & Wireless Worldwide jumped 7.8 percent to 37.77 pence, its biggest rally in eight weeks. The company’s largest investor Orbis Holdings Ltd. said it will accept the 1.04 billion-pound ($1.6 billion) takeover offer from Vodafone.

Swatch Group AG, the world’s biggest watchmaker, added 2.3 percent to 369.60 Swiss francs. Berenberg Bank AG initiated the stock with a buy recommendation, saying that the shares will climb to 475 francs and that Swatch may increase its earnings per share and dividend growth at a double-digit pace over the next five years.

The euro fell from the strongest in almost a month versus the dollar as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the new Greek government shouldn’t be granted additional leeway on the terms of its international bailout.

Concern Greece would be forced to leave the euro ebbed after Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy party and the Pasok party won enough seats in yesterday’s vote to control Greece’s 300- member parliament should they join forces in a coalition government.

The 17-nation currency weakened as Spanish 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent, adding to concern the region’s economic turmoil was spreading to the currency bloc’s largest economies.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, added 0.4 percent to 81.936. The gauge earlier declined to 81.161, the lowest since May 22.

U.S. stocks fluctuated as Spain’s bond yields rose to a euro-era record and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the new Greek government should not be granted additional leeway on the terms of its bailout.

Spain’s 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent, sparking concern that the nation will need external funding. The European Union isn’t considering a full-fledged economic bailout for Spain and remains focused on a more limited banking-sector rescue, an EU official said. Greek election winner Antonis Samaras raced to build a coalition to keep bailout aid flowing.

Companies that are most-tied to the economy fell the most in the S&P 500 today. Halliburton Co. (HAL), the world’s largest provider of hydraulic-fracturing services, declined 2.3 percent to $28.76. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, lost 1.9 percent to $8.65.

DSW Inc. slumped 12 percent to $52 after the shoe retailer’s second-quarter profit forecast trailed estimates.

Facebook, which last week had the first weekly advance since its initial public offering, rose 5.2 percent to $31.57. The shares have jumped 17 percent in three days.

Groupon Inc. rallied 11 percent to $11.12. The largest daily coupon website advanced after Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded the stock to overweight from equalweight, citing international sales opportunities.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is expected to preview a company-branded tablet at an event in Los Angeles today, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the plans aren’t public. The devices may run Microsoft’s latest operating system, Windows 8, and different versions may be powered by either processors based on designs from ARM Holdings Plc or x86 chips from Intel Corp., the people said. The shares fell 0.8 percent to $29.78.

Oil dropped for the first time in three days on concern that the worsening European debt crisis will slow global economic growth and reduce demand for crude.

Prices declined as much as 2.4 percent as Spanish borrowing costs rose to a euro-era high. More Spanish loans went unpaid in April, Bank of Spain data showed, suggesting the country’s recession is forcing more companies and consumers into default. The weekend elections in Greece eased concern that the country will exit the euro.

Oil for July delivery fell to $82.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 19 percent in the second quarter and 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for August settlement dropped $1.56, or 1.6 percent, to $96.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices fell as optimistic with regard to Greece, subsided, and fears for Spain and Italy have increased. Markets are waiting for the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place this week.

Lower prices at the beginning of the session caused a rise in demand for gold in India - the world's largest consumer of precious metals, dealers said. In the coming months, the demand will remain low, as in the monsoon season does not go through the major holidays.

Stocks of the world's largest gold ETF-secured fund SPDR Gold Trust last week rose by 2.6 tons.

The June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1615.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1370 (May 7 high)

Resistance 2:1355 (61,8 % FIBO 1412-1265)

Resistance 1:1348 (session high, МА (55) for D1)

Current price: 1336.25

Support 1:1327 (session low)

Support 2:1312 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3:1298 (Jun 8-12 lows)

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2600, $1.2540, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y79.75, Y79.90

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

U.S. stock futures fell amid concern about a worsening of Europe’s debt crisis as Spanish bond yields climbed to a euro-era record.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,721.02 +151.70 +1.77%

Hang Seng 19,427.81 +193.87 +1.01%

Shanghai Composite 2,316.05 +9.20 +0.40%

FTSE 5,482.64 +3.83 +0.07%

CAC 3,068.78 -18.84 -0.61%

DAX 6,244.01 +14.60 +0.23%

Crude oil $82.58 (-1.73%)

Gold $1620.20 (-0.49%)

"We see two actions as most likely: a change in communications to push back guidance on the path of the fed funds rate to early or mid-2015, and an extension of Operation Twist by perhaps $150 billion over a few months, very possibly adding mortgages to the mix of assets it buys."

The euro reversed gains on waning optimism that the victory of a pro-bailout party in Greek elections over the weekend would ease Europe’s debt crisis.

The euro weakened as Spanish 10-year bond yields rose above 7%, adding to concern the region’s economic turmoil was spreading to the currency bloc’s largest economies.

Spanish 10-year yields rose as much as 27 basis points to 7.14%. Greece, Ireland and Portugal sought bailouts when their benchmark borrowing costs topped 7%.

Leaders from the Group of 20 richest nations gathered in Mexico to discuss measures to bolster the global economy.

G-20 leaders, meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico, are due to discuss a mix of measures to secure the global recovery that will include deficit reduction for some countries and pledges for additional stimulus by others with sounder finances, a Canadian official said.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2820/30, $1.2780, $1.2750, $1.2720/30
Bids $1.2590, $1.2550/40, $1.2525/20

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5740/50, $1.5720/25, $1.5690/700
Bids $1.5640, $1.5610/00, $1.5580, $1.5560/50

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0140/55, $1.0115/25
Bids $1.0065/50, $0.9995/90, $0.9945/30, $0.9910/00, $0.9885/80

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.70/80, Y79.50/60
Bids Y79.10/00, Y78.50, Y78.10

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8220/25, stg0.8200
Bids stg0.8050/40, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8015/00, stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25, Jun 7-11 highs)

Resistance 1: Y79.30 (session high, МА (200) and МА (100) for Н1)

Current price: Y79.06

Support 1: Y78.90 (session low)

Support 2: Y78.60/50 (Jun 15 low, 61.8 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9650 (area of Jun 6, 8-12 highs)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9560 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9540 (Jun 15 high, МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9505
Support 1: Chf0.9420/10 (session low, 50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)
Support 2: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9325 (61,8 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Resistance 3 : $1.5840 (May 22 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5780 (50,0 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)

Resistance 1 : $1.5730/50 (session high, МА (200) for D1)

Current price: $1.5643

Support 1 : $1.5600 (earlier resistance, area of Jun 7 and 13 highs)

Support 2 : $1.5570 (МА (100) for Н1)

Support 3 : $1.5530 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.2820 (May 21 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2785 (50,0 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 1 : $1.2750 (session high)
Current price: $1.2631
Support 1 : $1.2620 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2590 (Jun 15 low, МА (100) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.2560 (МА (200) for Н1)

European stocks slightly rose as the yield on Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond climbed to 7%, amid fading optimism that Greece’s election will calm the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Currently:

FTSE 5,491.05 +12.24 +0.22%

CAC   3,095.99 +8.37 +0.27%

DAX 6,272.45 +43.04 +0.69%

EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2600, $1.2540, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y79.75, Y79.90 

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

Asian stocks and the euro rose to the highest levels in a month as gains by pro-bailout parties in Greek elections eased concern the nation would be forced out of the 17-member currency bloc. Commodities advanced while bond risk in Asia declined.

S&P/ASX 200 Australia 4,136.9 +79.57 +1.96%

TOPIX Japan 738.81 +12.24 +1.68%

SHANGHAI COMP China 2,312.57 +5.72 +0.25%

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.7 percent to the highest since May 16 at 12:39 p.m. in Tokyo. The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to the highest since May 22, and the yen fell against most of its major counterparts. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities gained 0.8 percent while bond risk in Asia dropped to the lowest since May 8. S&P 500 Index futures added 0.5 percent.

01:30 Australia                  New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)    May    -0.7%           2.4%

01:30 Australia                  New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)     May    +7.3%                   22.4%

05:00 Japan            BoJ monthly economic report       June  

The euro rose to the strongest in almost a month as official projections showed pro-bailout parties won enough seats to control Greece’s parliament, easing concern the country would be forced from the currency bloc. The 17-nation euro extended last week’s 1 percent jump versus the dollar after figures from the Interior Ministry indicated the election would give New Democracy and Pasok a combined 162 seats if they agree to govern together in the 300- member parliament.

New Democracy won 29.8 percent of the vote and secured 129 seats in Greece’s legislature, according to partially counted returns posted on the Athens-based ministry’s website earlier today. Anti-bailout party Syriza gained 26.8 percent and 71 seats, while socialist Pasok, with 12.4 percent, gained 33 seats.

While 21 parties were on the Greek ballot yesterday, the main contest was between Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, who has promised to renege on budget cuts demanded by creditors, and New Democracy’s Antonis Samaras, who has said his challenger was risking an exit from the currency union. Greece was left with a political stalemate after the previous general election on May 6.

The dollar and yen declined against most major counterparts as Asian stocks advanced, sapping demand for so-called safe-haven currencies.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair gain, updating the monthly high.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in range $1.5690-$1.5740.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose above Y79.00.

US data starts at 1400GMT by the NAHB Housing Market Index. Later on, at 1500GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to participate in a RZB EU Sky Talk, in Vienna.

The euro strengthened against the dollar for a second week as investors reduced record bets against the currency before Greece’s June 17 election, and amid speculation central banks may provide aid to financial markets.

The 17-nation currency pared earlier losses against the dollar on concern its decline since April has been overdone. Central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity, if needed, after a general election in Greece in two days, Reuters reported. The dollar headed for weekly declines versus major peers as weaker U.S. growth added to the case for further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The yen strengthened the most in two weeks against the dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus that debases the currency. The central bank kept its asset-purchase fund at 40 trillion yen ($510 billion), matching the forecasts of economists.

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, slipped for a fourth day, falling as much as 0.5 percent to 81.615, the least since May 23. It was down 1 percent for the week.

Asian stocks gained, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest weekly advance in almost five months, as optimism that central banks from China to the U.S. will act to stimulate economic growth tempered concerns Europe’s debt crisis will worsen.

Nikkei 225 8,569.32 +0.43 +0.01%

S&P/ASX 200 4,057.33 +15.09 +0.37%

Shanghai Composite 2,306.85 +10.90 +0.47%

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s third-largest lender by market value, climbed 2.1 percent.

Esprit Holdings Ltd. gained 9.2 percent in Hong Kong, heading for its first advance in three days, as the clothier said it will continue with its transformation strategy after both its chairman and chief executive officer quit.

DeNA Co., Japan’s biggest social- gaming operator, jumped 12 percent in Tokyo after announcing plans to buy back shares.

European stocks rose to the highest this month after the Bank of England announced credit-easing measures, boosting optimism central banks will take steps to stimulate the global economy.

BOE Governor Mervyn King said in a speech late yesterday that the case for more stimulus in the U.K. is growing. He also unveiled two plans to improve cash supply to the banking system.

A “funding-for-lending” program will allow banks to swap assets with the BOE for money to be loaned their customers. The central bank will also activate an unused facility to inject at least 5 billion pounds ($7.8 billion) a month into the system at a minimum rate of 25 basis points more than the benchmark interest rate, now at a record low of 0.5 percent.

National benchmark indexes advanced in all of the 18 western-European markets except Iceland. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX rallied 1.5 percent. France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.8 percent.

Telekom Austria AG advanced 1.4 percent to 8.15 euros after America Movil agreed to acquire a 21 percent stake in the company from investor Ronny Pecik. The acquisition is part of America Movil’s strategy to establish a foothold in Europe as the debt crisis lowers the value of telecommunications assets.

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward a second weekly rally, amid speculation global central banks will take steps to boost economies as investors awaited Greek elections this weekend.

Central banks intensified warnings that Europe’s failure to tame its debt crisis threatens the economy as Greece’s election in two days looms as the next flashpoint for investors. A victory by Syriza, the party that promises to renege on Greece’s end of the bailout, could speed the nation’s exit from the euro. The Group of 20 leaders prepare to gather in Mexico next week, and U.S. policy makers meet June 19-20.

Stocks rose today even as economic data disappointed. Industrial production unexpectedly fell in May for the second time in three months as factories turned out fewer vehicles and consumer goods. Confidence among U.S. consumers declined in June to the lowest level this year. Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in June at the slowest pace in seven months.

Some of the largest companies gained today. Microsoft (MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, added 2 percent to $29.92. Dow Chemical, the biggest U.S. chemical company by revenue, increased 2.7 percent to $32.87.

Facebook rose 2.1 percent to $28.87, extending its weekly advance to 6.5 percent. The company told regulators ahead of its initial public offering that the midpoint of its proposed price range wasn’t “meaningfully different” from a $30.89 per-share fair value estimate earlier this year.

SAIC Inc. jumped 3.2 percent to $12.03. The defense contractor specializing in computer services was raised to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The 6-month share-price estimate is $13.

Resistance 3: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.50 (Jun 14 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.30 (session high)

Current price: Y79.20

Support 1: Y79.00 (psychological level)

Support 2: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Support 3: Y78.10 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9575 (Jun 14 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9535 (Jun 15 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9475 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9449

Support 1: Chf0.9420 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9270 (May 11 low) 

Resistance 3: $ 1.5930 (May 17 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5845 (May 22 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5740 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5704

Support 1: $ 1.5690 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5600 (Jun 7-13 high)

Support 3: $ 1.5475 (Jun 15 low) 

Resistance 3: $ 1.2820 (May 21 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $1,3280 - $1,2280)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2745 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.2710

Support 1: $ 1.2670 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.2590 (Jun 15 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2540 (Jun 14 low) 

01:30 Australia                  New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)           May       -0.7%                   

01:30 Australia                  New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)               May       +7.3%                  

05:00 Japan                        BoJ monthly economic report  June                                    

11:30 United Kingdom                  MPC Member Tucker Speaks   -                                            

12:30 Canada                    Foreign investment in Canadian securities         April      -2.08      3.41      

14:00 U.S.                           NAHB Housing Market Index    June      29           28          

14:00 G20                           G20 Meetings  -                                            

23:01 United Kingdom                  Nationwide Consumer Confidence       May       44           45