Forex-novosti i prognoze od 14-06-2012

The dollar fell for a second day against the yen after reports signaled a slowing U.S. economy, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to take more steps to bolster growth.

The U.S. currency declined versus 15 of its 16 major peers after initial jobless claims rose last week and inflation declined in May. The consumer price index fell 0.3 percent, more than forecast and the biggest drop since December 2008, after no change the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9 from a revised 380,000 the prior week that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

The euro rose versus the dollar on bets its 5 percent decline since April was overdone even as Spanish bond yields rose to a record after Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating. The euro fell earlier against the yen after Italy’s costs of borrowing for three years climbed to the highest since December at an auction. Investors were also waiting for an election in Greece this weekend that may indicate whether the nation will remain in the euro bloc.

Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating three steps to Baa3, one level above junk, citing its increased debt burden and weakening economy. The Spanish 10-year yield climbed as much as 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, to a euro-era record 6.998 percent.

New Zealand’s dollar rallied against all 16 major counterparts after the central bank gave no immediate sign it would cut interest rates when it kept its benchmark at a record low.

The kiwi approached a one-month high after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said the current exchange rate is more comfortable than March and signaled he expects to hold the 2.5 percent official cash rate till mid-2013.

U.S. stocks rose, erasing most of this week’s loss in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as data on inflation and jobless claims fueled bets the Federal Reserve will act to spur growth and investors awaited Greek elections.

Speculation grew that the Fed will discuss stimulus efforts at its meeting next week after reports showed jobless claims unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 last week and the cost of living fell by the most in more than three years.

The Labor Department reported today that the consumer price index fell 0.3 percent, more than forecast and the biggest drop since December 2008, after no change the prior month. Economists projected a 0.2 percent decrease, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Home Depot (HD), the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, climbed 2 percent to $51.97 and McDonald’s (MCD), the world’s largest restaurant chain, advanced 1.6 percent to $89.40.

International Game Technology rallied 11 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $14.63. The maker of casino machines authorized a share buyback plan of as much as $1 billion in an effort to reward investors after a 23 percent stock drop this year.

Kroger Co. climbed 4.3 percent to $22.21. The largest U.S. grocery-store chain said profit for the year ending Jan. 31 will be as much as $2.40 a share, up from a prior forecast of as much as $2.38. Kroger also said its board approved a new $1 billion share buyback program, replacing an authorization that was exhausted on June 12.

Crude gained on speculation the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy to spur growth and members of OPEC will leave their production ceiling unchanged.

Oil advanced as much as 1 percent as a worse-than-expected jobless claims report fueled expectations that Fed policy makers will announce new stimulus measures after a meeting next week. OPEC oil ministers in Vienna are deciding whether to keep a 30 million-barrel-a-day limit.

Oil for July delivery gained to $83.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures fell to $82.62 yesterday, the lowest settlement since Oct. 6. Prices have decreased 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for July settlement, which expires today, rose 1 cent to $97.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more active August contract increased 14 cents to $96.86 a barrel.

The price of gold rising on Thursday amid expectations of investors additional incentives of the U.S. economy, as well as fears of further deterioration of the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Weak statistical data from the U.S., published the day before, revived the hopes of the bidders for additional easing of monetary policy in the United States. So, on Wednesday it was reported that retail sales in the country in May declined by 0.2%. Despite the fact that the rate coincided with the forecasts of analysts, data disappointed investors since the April growth rate of 0.1% was revised downward to minus 0.2%.

Thus, the sales decline for two consecutive months for the first time since 2010.In addition, the demand for safe assets such as precious metals, supported by investors' fears of further economic deterioration in the eurozone. On the night of Thursday the international rating agency Moody's lowered the sovereign credit rating by two notches of Cyprus - to "Ba3" from "Ba1", as well as the rating of Spain at once on three levels - to "Baa3" from "A3".

The June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1626.4 dollars per ounce.

• Basic European solution: rebuild single fin market

• Spillover effects to Canada/globe could be substantial

• Europe contagion risks increasing

Resistance 3:1350 (МА (55) for D1)

Resistance 2:1342 (Jun 11 high)

Resistance 1:1320 (Jun 12-13 highs)

Current price: 1314.75

Support 1:1298 (Jun 8-12 low)

Support 2:1286 (МА (200) for D1)

Support 3:1265 (Jun 4 low)

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2570, $1.2600, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y79.90

EUR/JPY Y100.30

GBP/USD $1.5580

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8020

AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9900, $0.9800

U.S. stock-index futures rose as investors awaited an election in Greece this weekend.

Moody’s Investors Service yesterday cut Spain’s rating by three steps to Baa3 from A3, citing the nation’s increased debt burden, weakening economy and limited access to capital markets. Moody’s also lowered Cyprus’s bond rating to Ba3 from Ba1.

Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9 from a revised 380,000 the prior week that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

The consumer-price index declined 0.3%, more than forecast and the biggest drop since December 2008, after no change the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,568.89 -18.95 -0.22%

Hang Seng 18,808.4 -218.12 -1.15%

Shanghai Composite 2,295.95 -22.98 -0.99%

FTSE  5,451.4 -32.41 -0.59%

CAC  3,019.5 -10.54 -0.35%

DAX 6,118.7 -33.79 -0.55%

Crude oil $83.00 (+0.46%)

Gold $1627.60 (+0.51%)

Data:

07:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

07:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment -

07:30 Switzerland SNB Press Conference -

08:00 Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report 2012

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report June

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI May +0.5% -0.2% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) May +2.4% +2.6% +2.4%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y May +1.6% +1.6% +1.6%

The dollar slid against most of its 16 major counterparts before U.S. data that economists said will show consumer prices fell, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to take more steps to bolster the economy. The U.S. consumer-price index probably fell 0.2 percent in May from a month earlier, the biggest drop since December 2008, the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The Labor Department will release the figures today.

The euro’s advance against the U.S. currency was tempered after Moody’s Investors Service yesterday lowered the credit ratings of Spain and Cyprus, and before Greek elections on June 17. Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating three steps to Baa3, one level above junk, citing the nation’s increased debt burden, weakening economy and limited access to capital markets. The ratings firm also lowered Cyprus’s bond rating to Ba3 from Ba1, attributing the downgrade to the material increase in the likelihood of a Greek exit from the euro area, and the resulting increase in the probable amount of support that the government may have to extend to Cypriot banks.

New Zealand’s dollar strengthened against all of its major peers after that nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2690/710, $1.2670/80, $1.2615/20

Bids $1.2525/20, $1.2482-72, $1.2445/40

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

The current price: Y79.31

Support 1: Y79.10/00 (Jun 8 and 12 low, МА (200) for Н1), 38,2 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.75 (50,0% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.50 (61.8% FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9770/80 (highs of 2011-2012)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9650/55 (area of Jun 6-12 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9585 (Jun 12 low)

The current price: Chf0.9567

Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Jun 13 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9410 (50,0% FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Resistance 3 : $1.5660 (38,2% FIBO $1.6300-$1.5260)

Resistance 2 : $1.5600 (area of Jun 7-13 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5530 (session high)

The current price: $1.5493

Support 1 : $1.5470 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5450 (Jun 12 low)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2785 (50,0% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280)

Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (38,2% FIBO $1,3280-$1,2280, Jun 11 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2610 (Jun 13 high)

The current price: $1.2585

Support 1 : $1.2530 (Jun 13 high)

Support 2 : $1.2500 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.2435/45 (area of Jun 6-12 low)

European stocks dropped for a second day as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Spain and Cyprus.

FTSE 100  5,437.39 -46.42 -0.85%

CAC 40 3,005.75 -24.29 -0.80%

Xetra DAX 6,111.97 -40.52 -0.66%

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2570, $1.2600, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y79.90

EUR/JPY Y100.30

GBP/USD $1.5580

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8020

AUD/USD $0.9950, $0.9900, $0.9800

Asian stocks fell, with the regional index heading for its third drop in five days, as Spain’s credit rating was cut and economic reports in the U.S and Europe added to concern the global economy is slowing.

Nikkei 225 8,568.89 -18.95 -0.22%

S&P/ASX 200 4,042.2 -21.59 -0.53%

Shanghai Composite 2,295.95 -22.98 -0.99%

Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., which operates ports in Germany and Spain, slid 1.5 percent in Hong Kong.

Esprit Holdings Ltd. sank 12 percent as the clothier’s chief executive officer and chairman quit within 24 hours of each other.

James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, lost 2.1 percent in Sydney as retail sales in the world’s largest economy dropped.

Data:

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation June +3.1% +2.3%

01:10 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Bollard Speaks -

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) April +1.3% +0.2% -0.2%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) April +14.2% +13.4% +12.9%

Most Asia-Pacific stocks rose as Japan’s machinery orders increased more than economists expected and South Korea’s unemployment rate fell.
Nikkei 8,587.84 +51.12 +0.60%
Hang Seng 19,026.52 +153.96 +0.82%
S&P/ASX  4,063.79 -9.09 -0.22%
Shanghai Composite 2,318.92 +29.13 +1.27%
Shares of Hitachi Ltd., which gets about one-third of sales from industrial machinery, climbed 2.4%.
Shares of Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest maker of mobile phones, rose 1.3%.
Shares Esprit Holdings Ltd. tumbled 21% before share trading was suspended after the clothier’s chief executive officer quit.

European stocks declined as borrowing costs increased at debt auctions in Germany and Italy and as Sweden’s SKF AB reported weakening demand for its products in the second quarter.
Germany sold 4.04 billion euros ($5.08 billion) of 10-year bunds today at an average yield of 1.52%, up from a rate of 1.47% at the last auction on May 16. Investors bid for 5.81 billion euros of the bunds, above the 5 billion-euro maximum sales target for the auction, the Bundesbank said.
In Italy, borrowing costs surged at the sale of 6.5 billion euros of bills. The Rome-based Treasury sold the one-year securities at 3.972%, 1.6%age points more than the 2.34% at the previous auction on May 11. Investors bid for 1.73 times the amount offered, down from 1.79 times last month.
National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 markets in western Europe. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.6%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2% and Germany’s DAX fell 0.1%. Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 1.4% as shares of Inditex SA (ITX) surged to a record.
SKF tumbled 7.3% to 133.20 kronor in Stockholm, its biggest decline since August, after the company reported “slightly lower” demand for its products and services in the second quarter than in the same period a year earlier.
Renault led a selloff by carmakers, falling 4.2% to 30.98 euros as Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Renault and Nissan Motor Co., forecast “three to four more years of stagnation” in Europe’s auto industry, according to a Reuters report.

U.S. stocks slid, after yesterday’s gain, as retail sales fell and concern about Europe’s debt crisis grew amid higher borrowing costs in Italy and Germany.
Equities fell as retail sales dropped in May for a second month, as limited job and income gains hold back consumers. Euro-area industrial production declined for a second month in April, led by a drop in Germany, adding to signs of a deepening economic slump. The Group of 20 nations meeting in Mexico next week probably won’t announce significant progress on Europe’s debt crisis, a U.S. official said.
Investors also watched the latest developments ahead of Greece’s elections on June 17. Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party in Greece is vying for first place in pre-election polls, said he expects the European Union will do all it can to keep the nation in the euro even if he wins elections and carries out his promise to repeal the austerity measures required to receive emergency loans.
The S&P 500 briefly rose as banks rallied. JPMorgan (JPM) jumped 1.6% to $34.30 as Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon testified about his bank’s $2 billion trading loss. He said a switch to a new risk model in the first quarter may have helped fuel the loss, and the bank has shifted back to the old system.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy lost 1.5%. Home Depot (HD), the largest U.S. home- improvement retailer, lost 2.4% to $50.97. Caterpillar (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, dropped 2% to $85.29. DuPont, a chemicals producer, fell 1.6% to $49.11.
Dell rallied 2.6% to $12.28. The quarterly payout of 8 cents a share will begin in the period that ends in October. The dividend’s yield would be 2.7%, based on the stock’s closing price yesterday. The company will focus on data-center gear as well as computing software and services while seeking to cut costs by more than $2 billion over the next three years.

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)

Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25, June 7-11 highs)

Resistance 1: Y79.50 (session high, MA(100) for H1)

Current price: Y79.42

Support 1: Y79.10/00 (Jun 8 and 12 lows, МА (200) for Н1), 38,2 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 2: Y78.75 (50,0 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Support 3: Y78.50 (61.8 % FIBO Y77,60-Y79,80)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665/75 (area of Jun 5, 8 and 12 highs)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9544
Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Jun 13 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9475 (Jun 11 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9410 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Resistance 3 : $1.5720 (area of May 24, 28-29 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)
Resistance 1 : $1.5600 (area of Jun 7, 11 and 13 highs)
Current price: $1.5526
Support 1 : $1.5500 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5460/50 (Jun 12 low, МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2785 (50,0 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280, Jun 11 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2610 (resistance line from May 21, Jun 13 high)
Current price: $1.2585
Support 1 : $1.2530 (МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.2500 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.2440 (Jun 8 and 12 lows)

Gold 1,611 +14 +0.88%

Oil 83.45 +0.75 +0.91%

Nikkei 8,587.84 +51.12 +0.60%

Hang Seng 19,026.52 +153.96 +0.82%

S&P/ASX  4,063.79 -9.09 -0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,318.92 +29.13 +1.27%

FTSE 100 5,473.74 +41.37 +0.76%
CAC 40 3,046.91 +4.15 +0.14%
DAX 6,161.24 +20.19 +0.33%
Dow 12,574 +163 +1.31%
Nasdaq 2,843 +33 +1.19%
S&P 500 1,324 +15 +1.17%

EUR/USD $1,2565 +0,49%

GBP/USD $1,5511 -0,36%
USD/CHF Chf0,9566 -0,39%
USD/JPY Y79,42 -0,18%
EUR/JPY Y99,81 +0,32%
GBP/JPY Y123,22 -0,51%
AUD/USD $0,9945 -0,07%
NZD/USD $0,7760 -0,09%
USD/CAD C$1,0292 +0,30%