Forex-novosti i prognoze od 11-06-2012

European stocks erased gains in the final hour of trading, led by a selloff in Spanish and Italian lenders, as optimism faded that Spain’s 100 billion euro ($125 billion) bank bailout will contain the sovereign debt crisis.

The Spanish state’s bank-rescue fund, known as FROB, will receive the money and extend it to lenders. The sum is equivalent to about 10 percent of Spain’s gross domestic product. FROB debt counts as public debt, which amounted to 69 percent of GDP last year.

National benchmark indexes fell in 12 out of 18 western European markets. Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 slid 0.3 percent.

Italian lenders declined as the country’s 10-year bonds reversed an earlier advance with investors betting the country is now at the frontline of Europe’s financial woes. UniCredit SpA dropped 8.8 percent to 2.48 euros, Mediobanca SpA slid 5.6 percent to 3.05 euros and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA dropped 5.9 percent to 1.03 euros.

Volkswagen AG increased 1.3 percent to 123.45 euros and Porsche SE rose 2.4 percent to 41.41 euros after VW was said to have cleared an important hurdle toward buying the 50.1 percent of the Porsche sports-car business that it doesn’t already own.

The euro fell against most of its major peers as Spain’s bailout spurred concern that the sovereign-debt crisis is deepening as it spreads among indebted nations before Greek elections June 17.

The 17-nation currency earlier rose, touching a two-week high, after Spain asked for as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to save its banking system, making it the fourth member of the currency bloc to seek a rescue. The bailout helped move Italy to the front lines of the crisis, as bets increased Europe’s third largest economy may be the next one to succumb.

Seven months after winning a landslide victory, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was forced to abandon his bid to recapitalize banks without external help. The bailout loan will be channeled through the state’s bank-rescue fund, known as FROB, and extended to lenders that need it, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos Jurado said in Madrid on June 9.

Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds fell for a fourth day, reversing earlier gains. The Spanish yield rose 31 basis points to 6.52 percent, while the rate on the Italian securities climbed 27 basis points to 6.04 percent.

Italy’s economy, the third-biggest in the region, shrank 0.8 percent in the first three months of this year from the fourth quarter, Istat, the Rome-based national statistics institute said, confirming an initial estimate. Household spending decreased 1 percent and exports fell 0.6 percent.

U.S. stocks fell, paring gains from the biggest weekly rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, as optimism over Spain’s bailout plan gave way to skepticism it will succeed in halting the debt crisis.

Spain requested as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) of European bailout funds to shore up its banking system. The crisis in Spain, coinciding with the prospect of Greece leaving the euro after elections on June 17, roiled markets around the world, sending the euro to an almost two-year low on June 1 and pushing Spanish borrowing costs to near euro-era records.

Financial shares in the S&P 500 reversed a rally of as much as 1.1 percent. Bank of America (ВАС) declined 2.5 percent to $7.38. Morgan Stanley lost 1.1 percent to $13.56.

AK Steel paced a plunge in steelmakers. The shares fell 11 percent, the most since Oct. 25, to $5.19. Sal Tharani, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, cut his rating to sell. Hot-rolled steel, a benchmark product used in autos and appliances, will fall below $600 a ton, he said in a note published yesterday.

Progress Energy Inc. rallied 3.5 percent to $60.19, the highest price since at least 1980. Federal regulators conditionally approved Duke Energy Corp.’s proposal to ease market concentration, clearing the way for its acquisition.

Oil fell on skepticism that Spain’s bailout plan will succeed in easing the euro region’s debt crisis, which is slowing economic growth and curbing fuel use.

Futures dropped as much as 1.2 percent as equities and the euro declined in the first trading day after the bailout. Spain asked euro-region governments over the weekend for as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to help shore up its banking system. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC needs a higher output target in an interview with the Gulf Oil Review.

Crude oil for July delivery slipped to $83.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have fallen 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for July settlement dropped 92 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $98.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The price of gold down after rising earlier in the session because of the news on the allocation of Spanish aid to overcome the problems of the banking sector.

Investors took the news with optimism that the Eurogroup endorsed the plan to grant Spain a loan of 100 billion euros to recapitalize the banking sector. At the same time on Monday, investors are paid attention to statements by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble that for the control of the Spanish banking sector reforms will create a "troika" of experts from the European Commission, European Central Bank and the IMF, similar to the missions of international lenders in Greece and Portugal.

On the eve of Prime Minister of Spain, Mariano Rahoy said that the opening of credit line for Spain thanks to reforms in the country.

The increase in gold prices in 2011 amounted to almost 10%. As a result, eleven-year period, the rising cost of metal is the longest, at least since 1920. During the first quarter of 2012 the metal rose by 6.7%, but in May the price of gold fell just 6%.

The June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1608.0 dollars per ounce, and then fell to 1583.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1363 (area of May 10 and 11 highs)

Resistance 3:1353 (МА (55) for D1)

Resistance 1:1342 (session high)

Current price: 1317.50

Support 1:1317 (session low, support line from Jun 5)

Support 2:1304 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3:1298 (Jun 8 low)

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2510, $1.2600, $.1.2650

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.15, Y79.50, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

AUD/JPY Y78.60

U.S. stock futures advanced as Spain asked for a bailout to help shore up its banks and China’s exports beat economists’ estimates.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,624.9 +165.64 +1.96%

Hang Seng 18,953.63 +451.29 +2.44%

Shanghai Composite 2,305.86 +24.41 +1.07%

FTSE  5,470.75 +35.67 +0.66%

CAC 3,088.38 +36.69 +1.20%

DAX 6,235.53 +104.71 +1.71%

Crude oil $85.16 (+1.16%)

Gold $1596.70 (+0.33%)

Data:

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m April -0.9% +0.2% +1.5%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y April -0.9% -0.3% +0.9%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2750, $1.2720/25, $1.2690/710, $1.2670/80, $1.2645/50, $1.2615/25

Bids покупку $1.2555/50, $1.2410/00, $1.2385/80, $1.2360

GBP/USD

Offers продажу $1.5650, $1.5615/25, $1.5600

Bids $1.5500, $1.5405/395

Resistance 3: Y80.60 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)
Resistance 1: Y79.70/80 (May 25, Jun 7 and session highs)
Current price: Y79.38
Support 1: Y79.30 (session low)
Support 2: Y79.10 (МА (100) for Н1, Jun 8 low)
Support 3: Y78.95 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9655 (Jun 8 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9630 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (МА (100) for Н1)

Current price: Chf0.9564

Support 1: Chf0.9475 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9410 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Support 3: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5720 (May 21-22 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)

Resistance 1 : $1.5600 (Jun 7 high)

Current price: $1.5543

Support 1 : $1.5520 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5470 (МА(200) for Н1)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2820 (May 21 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2780 (50,0 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 1 : $1.2670 (session high, 38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Current price: $1.2570
Support 1 : $1.2520 (МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.2470 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.2430 (Jun 8 low)

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2510, $1.2600, $.1.2650

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.15, Y79.50, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

AUD/JPY Y78.60

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index on course for its biggest gain in almost five months, as China’s trade data beat estimates and investors speculated a bailout for Spain’s banks will help ease Europe’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,624.9 +165.64 +1.96%

S&P/ASX 200 4,063.7 -44.87 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,305.86 +24.41 +1.07%

China Cosco Holdings Co. jumped 12 percent in Hong Kong as China’s rising imports and exports boosted prospects for shipping lines.

Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, rose 3.5 percent in Tokyo.

Sumco Corp. surged 14 percent after the maker of silicon wafers for semiconductors posted operating profit that beat estimates. Gauges of volatility fell across the region.

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence May 40.0 39.9 40.7

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households May 40.1 40.7

Asian stocks fell, paring the first weekly advance in six weeks, amid concern that central banks are struggling to reinforce global demand amid Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,459.26 -180.46 -2.09%

S&P/ASX 200 4,063.7 -44.87 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,281.23 -11.90 -0.52%

Sony Corp., Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, slid 5.1 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, gained 1.2 percent in Sydney after China cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2008 and metals prices climbed.

Renesas Electronics Corp. soared as much as 19 percent on a report the maker of automotive microcontrollers was scrapping a share sale.

On Monday the euro rose for a second day versus the dollar as traders said the shared currency’s decline may have been too quick after European leaders agreed to discuss closer banking cooperation in the euro bloc. European Commission President Jose Barroso and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to discuss proposals on banking coordination when they meet in Berlin. The commission, the European Union’s executive, last week called for a “banking union” that would integrate supervision of lenders more tightly and create a pool of EU funds to clean up banks with cross-border exposure. The Brussels-based commission also proposed that the euro’s permanent bailout fund inject cash to banks instead of channeling the money through national governments.

On Tuesday the yen weakened against the dollar for a second day after Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi indicated that Group of Seven nations remain supportive of intervention to address extreme currency moves.

After reaching its weakest level against the dollar on March 15, the yen had strengthened as much as 7 percent. Japan’s Azumi said he told finance ministers a strong yen was depressing the nation’s stock market and damaging its economy by making exports more expensive.

On Wednesday the euro rose for a fourth day against the yen as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said policy makers were “ready to act” after leaving their benchmark rate at a record low. The ECB’s Draghi told a press conference in Frankfurt that officials will extend their offerings of unlimited cash to banks until the start of 2013 for periods up to three months as they endeavor to counter risks stemming from the region’s debt crisis. The 17-nation euro strengthened to almost a one-week high against the dollar amid speculation the world’s leading economies will collaborate on a response to Europe’s debt crisis.

On Thursday the yen fell against all its major counterparts after China cut its key interest rates for the first time since 2008, damping appetite for refuge assets. China’s benchmark one-year deposit rate will drop by 0.25 percentage point effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website. The one-year lending rate will also be cut by 0.25 percentage point, it said.

On Friday the euro weakened for a second day against the dollar as Spain was poised to become the fourth of the 17 euro countries to require emergency assistance. The 17-nation euro fell for the first time in six days versus the yen as the currency bloc’s finance chiefs plan weekend talks on a potential Spanish aid request to shore up the nation’s lenders. German exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, slid 1.7 percent in April from a month earlier, when they gained 0.8 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists forecast a drop of 0.7 percent. Italian output declined 1.9 percent from March, when it rose a revised 0.6 percent, the national statistics office said in Rome. Production slid 9.2 percent from a year ago on a workday-adjusted basis.

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (Jun 7 high)

The current price: Y79.63

Support 1: Y79.10 (Jun 8 low)

Support 2: Y78.60 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3: Y78.00/10 (area of Jun 4-5 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9590 (low of the American session on Jun 8)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9550 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9520 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9512

Support 1: Chf0.9475 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9440 (May 21 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9365/75 (area of May 21-22 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.5715/25 (area of May 24-29 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.5645 (May 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5600 (Jun 7 high)

The current price: $1.5556

Support 1 : $1.5525 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5475 (high of the American session on Jun 8)

Support 3 : $1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2725 (May 21 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.2685 (May 23 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2670 (session high)

The current price: $1.2631

Support 1 : $1.2615 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2575 (Jun 8 high)

Support 3 : $1.2520 (high of the American session on Jun 8)

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence May 40.0 39.9

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households May 40.1

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m April -0.9% +0.2%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y April -0.9% -0.3%

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -

19:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m May -0.3%

22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance May -19% -17%

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index April -0.6% +0.4%