Forex-novosti i prognoze od 08-06-2012

European stocks retreated, paring the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest weekly gain in four months, after German exports slumped more than forecast and Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s credit rating.

German exports declined in April for the first time this year as Europe’s worsening debt crisis and weaker global growth curbed demand.

Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, fell 1.7 percent from March, when they gained 0.8 percent, the Federal Statistics Office said today.

Fitch cut Spain’s rating to within two notches from junk, citing the cost of recapitalizing the country’s banking industry and a lengthening recession.

National benchmark indexes fell in 10 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 slid 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 each lost 0.2 percent.

BHP, the world’s largest mining company, fell 2.9 percent to 1,767 pence. BofA-Merrill cut its earning per share estimate for the company by 5.9 percent for full-year 2013 and by 1.8 percent for 2014 on lower oil-price estimates, analyst Peter O’Connor wrote, while holding a neutral rating.

Basic-resource shares lost 2.8 percent for the biggest decline among industry groups in the Stoxx 600 as metals prices fell in London. Vedanta Resources Plc retreated 5.1 percent to 935.5 pence. Eramet dropped 2.5 percent to 86.36 euros.

Lamprell plunged 22 percent to 84.50 pence, paring earlier losses of as much as 37 percent. The U.K. oil and gas rig engineer cut its earnings forecast for the second time in three weeks, saying it expects a first-half loss of $15 million to $20 million.

H&M declined 0.6 percent to 214.30 kronor. The shares earlier fell as much as 4.1 percent after Societe Generale cut its recommendation on the stock to sell from hold, with a share price estimate of 197 kronor.

The euro weakened for a second day against the dollar as Spain was poised to become the fourth of the 17 euro countries to require emergency assistance.

The 17-nation euro fell for the first time in six days versus the yen as the currency bloc’s finance chiefs plan weekend talks on a potential Spanish aid request to shore up the nation’s lenders.

German exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, slid 1.7 percent in April from a month earlier, when they gained 0.8 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists forecast a drop of 0.7 percent.

Italian output declined 1.9 percent from March, when it rose a revised 0.6 percent, the national statistics office said in Rome. Production slid 9.2 percent from a year ago on a workday-adjusted basis.

The pound dropped, snapping a two-day advance against the dollar, as report showed U.K. factory-output prices unexpectedly fell in May. The price of goods at factory gates slipped 0.2 percent from April, the first decline since December, the Office for National depreciated 0.6 percent to $1.5439.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward its best week in 2012, as investors awaited weekend discussions of European finance officials for news of a potential bailout of Spain.

Investors watched Europe’s attempts to tame its debt crisis. Spain is poised to become the fourth of the 17 euro-area countries to require emergency assistance as the currency bloc’s finance chiefs plan weekend talks on a potential aid request to shore up the nation’s lenders.

Earlier today, U.S. equities joined a global slump as German exports dropped in April for the first time this year as weaker global growth curbed demand. French business confidence and Italian output also declined. The trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed in April as a drop in imports overshadowed the first decline in exports in five months.

Telephone service providers and companies that sell consumer necessities gained today, while energy shares slumped. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), the world’s largest retailer, rose 2.9 percent to $67.77. Intel (INTC), the biggest chipmaker, added 1.4 percent to $26.29.

Facebook rose 3.7 percent to $27.28. The social-networking company that held an initial public offering last month introduced an online directory for downloadable apps, taking a page from Apple Inc. and Google Inc.

McDonald’s (MCD) dropped 1 percent to $87.50. Sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 3.3 percent globally last month, falling short of analysts’ estimates, as sales declined in Japan and China. Analysts projected a gain of 5.2 percent, the average of 13 estimates compiled by Consensus Metrix.

Yum! Brands Inc., owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut restaurant brands, slumped 4.7 percent to $63.64 for the second-biggest decline in the S&P 500.

NetApp Inc. retreated 2.6 percent to $30.49. The seller of hardware and software for storing data was downgraded at Barclays Plc. The share-price estimate is $34.

Oil fell for a second day on concern that an economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe will worsen and curb fuel demand.

Crude dropped as much as 3.3 percent after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday damped expectations for monetary stimulus. Spain is poised to become the fourth of the 17 euro-area countries to require emergency assistance, and German exports decreased for the first time this year.

Federal Reserve officials need to assess the risk from Europe and U.S. budget cuts before deciding on stimulus measures, Bernanke said yesterday in congressional testimony.

The news came after Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s long-term credit rating to BBB yesterday and left it two notches from junk, citing the cost of recapitalizing the country’s banking industry and a lengthening recession.

In Germany, exports adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, fell 1.7 percent in April from March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today, as Europe’s debt crisis and weaker global growth reduced consumption.

Oil for July delivery fell to $82.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 16 percent this year.

Brent for July settlement slid $1.94, or 1.9 percent, to $97.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices fell to a week low, as the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman speech of Ben Bernanke has disappointed investors.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday vowed that the central bank is ready to defend the economy if the financial problems will intensify, but did not say anything that would indicate the new monetary incentives.

Investors ignored the sudden decrease in interest rates in China and the European Central Bank on Wednesday kept the main rate at 1 per cent in spite of international pressure.

The market also adversely affected by reports of sharper than expected decline in industrial production in Italy and most significantly for the two-year decrease in imports of Germany in April.

The June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1566.5 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1355 (МА (55) for D1)

Resistance 2:1334 (area of May 29-30 highs)

Resistance 1:1322 (Jun 7 high)

Current price: 1305.50

Support 1:1298 (session low)

Support 2:1290 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3:1265 (Jun 4 low)

EUR/USD $.1.2400, $1.2430, $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.8055

EUR/NOK Nok7.60

AUD/USD $0.99.75

AUD/CAD C$1.0250

U.S. stock futures fell as commodities tumbled and disappointing economic data in Europe added to concern about a global slowdown.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,459.26 -180.46 -2.09%

Hang Seng18,502.34 -175.95 -0.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,281.45 -11.68 -0.51%

FTSE 5,416.47 -31.32 -0.57%

CAC 3,049.22 -21.94 -0.71%

DAX6,113.22 -31.00 -0.50%

Crude oil  $82.38  (-2.86%)

Gold  $1576.60  (-0.72%)

Data:

06:00 Germany Trade Balance April 13.7 13.1 16.1

06:00 Germany Current Account April 19.8 11.0 11.2

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln April -5.7 -5.6 -5.8

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May -1.5% -1.2% -2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May +1.2% +1.2% +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May +0.6% +0.2% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May +2.3% +2.3% +2.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter II +3.5% +3.7%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2690/700, $1.2650, $1.2630, $1.2520/30, $1.2500

Bids $1.2440, $1.2410/00, $1.2385/80, $1.2350

GBP/USD

Ofers $1.5615/25, $1.5500/10, $1.5480, $1.5450

Bids $1.5470, $1.5405/395, $1.5350

Resistance 3: Y80.60 (high of May)
Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high, МА (100) for D1)
Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25 and Jun 7 highs)
Current price: Y79.28
Support 1: Y78.90 (МА (200) for Н1 and МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2: Y78.60 (Jun 6 low)
Support 3: Y78.10 (May 5 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (Jun 1 high, highs of 2011)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9675 (Jun 5 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9650 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9638

Support 1: Chf0.9600 (МА (100) for Н1)

Support 2: Chf0.9510 (Jun 7 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9490 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Resistance 3 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)

Resistance 2 : $1.5600 (Jun 7 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5460 (МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: $1.5431

Support 1 : $1.5400 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3 : $1.5265 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2670 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620 (May 24 and 28 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.2510 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: $1.2463
Support 1 : $1.2450 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2410 (Jun 5 low)
Support 3 : $1.2290 (Jun 1 low)

EUR/USD $.1.2400, $1.2430, $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5500

EUR/GBP stg0.8055

EUR/NOK Nok7.60

AUD/USD $0.99.75

AUD/CAD C$1.0250

Asian stocks fell, paring the first weekly advance in six weeks, amid concern that central banks are struggling to reinforce global demand amid Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,459.26 -180.46 -2.09%

S&P/ASX 200 4,063.7 -44.87 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,281.23 -11.90 -0.52%

Sony Corp., Japan’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, slid 5.1 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, gained 1.2 percent in Sydney after China cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2008 and metals prices climbed.

Renesas Electronics Corp. soared as much as 19 percent on a report the maker of automotive microcontrollers was scrapping a share sale.

01:30 Australia Trade Balance April -1.59 -0.92 -0.20

01:30 Australia Home Loans April +0.3% +0.1% +0.2%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current May 50.9 51.2 47.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook May 50.9 48.1

Yesterday the yen fell against all its major counterparts after China cut its key interest rates for the first time since 2008, damping appetite for refuge assets. China’s benchmark one-year deposit rate will drop by 0.25 percentage point effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website. The one-year lending rate will also be cut by 0.25 percentage point, it said.

The Dollar Index pared losses as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke refrained from signaling additional steps the central bank might take to spur growth, during congressional testimony. Bernanke said the economy is at risk from Europe’s debt crisis and the prospect of fiscal tightening in the U.S., while not signaling additional monetary easing.

The euro earlier touched to a two-week high versus the dollar earlier as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the nation is ready to back euro-area financial instruments.

The pound strengthened to a one-week high against the dollar and gilts fell after the Bank of England kept its stimulus program unchanged and China cut borrowing costs to boost growth. Sterling rose versus all except one of its 16 major counterparts after a report showed U.K. services grew more in May than analysts forecast. Policy makers held the bond-purchase program at 325 billion pounds ($505 billion) and their benchmark rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

Asian stocks climbed, with the benchmark regional gauge heading for its biggest three-day gain this year, as global policy makers signaled they may take steps to stimulate economic growth.

Nikkei 225 8,639.72 +106.19 +1.24%

S&P/ASX 200 4,108.6 +53.31 +1.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,293.13 -16.43 -0.71%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, advanced 1.5 percent in Sydney as Australian employment unexpectedly rose in May, driven by hiring amid the nation’s minerals boom.

Mitsubishi Corp., the No. 1 Japanese trading house, rose 1.2 percent and Komatsu Ltd., a mining-equipment maker, gained 2.1 percent in Tokyo as investors bought shares of companies with profits closely tied to economic growth.

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

The current price: Y79.30

Support 1: Y78.95 (low of the American session on Jun 6)

Support 2: Y78.60 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3: Y78.00/10 (area of Jun 4-5 lows)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9675/95 (area of Jun 4-5 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (Jun 6 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9595 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9586

Support 1: Chf0.9550 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9510 (Jun 7 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9465 (May 23 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5645 (May 30 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5600 (Jun 7 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5540 (session high)

The current price: $1.5488

Support 1 : $1.5430 (Jun 7 low)

Support 2 : $1.5370 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3 : $1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2685 (May 23 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2620/25 (area of May 24-28 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.2575 (session high)

The current price: $1.2527

Support 1 : $1.2510 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2440 (Jun 6 low)

Support 3 : $1.2385/05 (area of Jun 4-5 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,592 -43 -2.60%

Oil 83.51 -1.51 -1.78%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,639.72 +106.19 +1.24%

S&P/ASX 200 4,108.6 +53.31 +1.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,293.13 -16.43 -0.71%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2563 -0,11%

GBP/USD $1,5531 +0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9558 +0,12%

USD/JPY Y79,68 +0,54%

EUR/JPY Y100,08 +0,40%

GBP/JPY Y123,71 +0,79%

AUD/USD $0,9891 -0,26%

NZD/USD $0,7669 -0,42%

USD/CAD C$1,0278 +0,01%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance April -1.59 -0.92

01:30 Australia Home Loans April +0.3% +0.1%

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current May 50.9 51.2

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook May 50.9

06:00 Germany Trade Balance April 13.7 13.1

06:00 Germany Current Account April 19.8 11.0

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln April -5.7 -5.6

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) May -1.5% -1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) May +1.2% +1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) May +0.6% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) May +2.3% +2.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter II +3.5%

12:15 Canada Housing Starts May 245 249

12:30 Canada Changing the number of employed May 58.2

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate May 7.3%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions April 0.4

12:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter I +0.7%

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln April -51.8 -49.3

14:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies -

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories April +0.3% +0.5%