Forex-novosti i prognoze od 06-06-2012

• • Manufacturing activity grew in most counties

  
  

  • Districts reported modest or moderate growth rates

  • Consumer spending remained unchanged or moderately increased

  • There is an increase in travel, tourism

  • Construction has grown in many districts

  • The situation in the real estate market shows improvement

  • New car sales remained strong

  • Lenders have reported an improvement in credit conditions

  • Production, exploration of energy resources grow

European stocks surged the most in six months after the European Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at a record low and said it’s ready to act if necessary as the growth outlook dims.

ECB President Mario Draghi said officials are ready to add more stimulus to the euro region’s economy if necessary, while damping expectations that another round of three-year funding for banks is imminent.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all 17 western European markets that were open. Germany’s DAX rose 2.1 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 2.4 percent in its first day of trading this week after a two-day holiday for the royal jubilee. France’s CAC 40 also rallied 2.4 percent.

A measure of mining companies climbed the most of the industry groups on the Stoxx 600 after copper rose in London. Copper miners Kazakhmys Plc and Vedanta Resources Plc advanced 7.4 percent to 714.5 pence, and 9.1 percent to 963.5 pence, respectively.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc rose 5.2 percent to 27.05 pence after agreeing to sell 809 million pounds of Australian corporate real estate loans to a Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP joint venture for about 388 million pounds in cash.

Royal Ahold NV paced declining shares, falling 4.2 percent to 9.18 euros after the owner of Stop & Shop grocery stores reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates.

The euro rose for a fourth day against the yen as European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said policy makers were “ready to act” after leaving their benchmark rate at a record low. The ECB’s Draghi told a press conference in Frankfurt that officials will extend their offerings of unlimited cash to banks until the start of 2013 for periods up to three months as they endeavor to counter risks stemming from the region’s debt crisis.

The 17-nation euro strengthened to almost a one-week high against the dollar amid speculation the world’s leading economies will collaborate on a response to Europe’s debt crisis.

The dollar and yen fell against most of their major counterparts amid reduced demand for safer assets.

Australia’s dollar rose as the nation’s economic growth exceeded forecasts and investors sought higher-yielding currencies. The Australian economy expanded 1.3 percent in the first three months of this year from the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said. That’s the fastest pace since the period ended June last year.

U.S. stocks rose, sending benchmark indexes toward their biggest gains in 2012, on speculation global policy makers will act to revive a slowing economy.

Stocks rose for a third day after the S&P 500 fell as much as 9.9 percent from this year’s peak in April amid concern about a global slowdown. Earlier this week, the index traded at 12.9 times reported earnings, the cheapest valuation in six months, according to data.

Equities gained as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said officials stand ready to act as the euro region’s growth outlook worsens. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta PresidentDennis Lockhart said extending Operation Twist, the program to lengthen maturities of debt on the central bank’s balance sheet, is an “option on the table.” The Fed will publish its Beige Book survey of business conditions in 12 national districts today.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 rose today as commodity, financial and technology shares had the biggest gains. Bank of America (ВАС) increased 7.5 percent, the most since January, to $7.46. Caterpillar (САТ) added 3.3 percent to $86.37, while Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) jumped 2.9 percent to $22.31.

Iron Mountain Inc. surged 10 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $31.35. The document-storage company approved a plan to convert to a real-estate investment trust and increased its quarterly dividend by 8 percent.

Chesapeake Energy jumped 7.2 percent to $18.22. The energy explorer, facing a $22 billion cash-flow shortfall after natural-gas prices touched a decade low, is discussing selling its entire stake in Chesapeake Midstream Partners LP and other pipeline assets, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The negotiations may lead to a deal within days and could also fall apart, the people said.

Home Depot (HD) rose 2.8 percent to $50.29. The timing of its share repurchases will not have a material impact on the diluted earnings per share in that period, the Atlanta-based retailer said today in a statement.

Oil rose for a third day on speculation that monetary policy makers will act to spur economic growth, boosting fuel demand.

Futures climbed as much as 2.3 percent after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said a fragile recovery may require more stimulus. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said officials stand ready to act as the euro region’s expansion outlook worsens. Oil pared its advance after the Energy Department said inventories of crude oil slipped 111,000 barrels to 384.6 million last week. Supplies were forecast to shrink 500,000 barrels. Stockpiles declined from a 22-year high.

Oil for July delivery rose to $66.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for July settlement gained $1.95, or 2 percent, to $100.79 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold is going up by the weakening of the dollar against most world currencies, as well as the uncertainty associated with the debt problems of the eurozone.

At the same time, experts say that demand for the metal may be reduced by such a major global importer of gold as India, where the prices on the local currency approached a record high, especially after the devaluation of the rupee against the dollar over the past few months.

Increase in gold prices last week caused an increase in scrap gold sales in India and other Asian countries. The decline in stock markets and high interest rates drove investors to sell gold in India, said the president of the Bombay Association Gold Pritviradzh Kothari.

Today, June gold futures on the COMEX rose to 1639.0 USD/Oz (1.2%).

Resistance 3:1334 (area of May 29-30 highs)

Resistance 2:1318 (May 31 high)

Resistance 1:1305 (МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: 1301.50

Support 1:1288 (session low)

Support 2:1265 (Jun 4 low)

Support 3:1240 (50,0 % FIBO 1070-1420)

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2425, $1.2500, $1.2600, $1.2650

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.25, Y79.75-80

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8000

USD/CHF Chf0.9650

AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9700, $0.9600

U.S. stock futures pared gains as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the economic outlook in the euro area faces increased downside risks.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,533.53 +151.53 +1.81%

Hang Seng 18,520.53 +261.50 +1.43%

Shanghai Composite 2,309.55 -2.36 -0.10%

FTSE  5,311.31 +51.12 +0.97%

CAC  3,017.23 +31.13 +1.04%

DAX 6,016.89 +47.49 +0.80%

Crude oil $84.99 (+0.83%)

Gold $1635.70 (+1.18%)

•  

  ECB STAFF: Sees 2012 HICP 2.3% to 2.5%; Mar fcst 2.1% to 2.7%; Sees 2013 HICP 1.0% to 2.2%; Mar fcst 0.9% to 2.3%

   

• ECB STAFF: See 2012 GDP -0.5% to +0.3%; Mar fcst -0.5% to +0.3%; Sees 2013 GDP 0% to +2.0%%; Mar fcst 0.0% to +2.2%

• econ outlook subject to increased downside risks

• downside risks related to debt tensions, spillover

• downside risks also relate to commodity prices

•  

  ECB STAFF: Sees 2012 HICP 2.3% to 2.5%; Mar fcst 2.1% to 2.7%; Sees 2013 HICP 1.0% to 2.2%; Mar fcst 0.9% to 2.3%

   

• ECB STAFF: See 2012 GDP -0.5% to +0.3%; Mar fcst -0.5% to +0.3%; Sees 2013 GDP 0% to +2.0%%; Mar fcst 0.0% to +2.2%

• econ outlook subject to increased downside risks

• downside risks related to debt tensions, spillover

• downside risks also relate to commodity prices

•  

  expect price stab over policy horizon;

   

• infl expectations firmly anchored;

• econ growth remains weak;

• heightened uncertainty.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2650, $1.2620, $1.2595/600, $1.2570, $1.2520

Bids $1.2470, $1.2440, $1.2410/00, $1.2385/80

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5540/55, $1.5530, $1.5500

Bids $1.5440/30, $1.5410/00, $1.5365/60, $1.5350

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y73.30 (resistance line from Apr 2)
Сurrent price: Y79.17
Support 1: Y79.00 (МА(200) for Н1)
Support 2: Y78.50 (МА(100) for Н1)
Support 3: Y78.10 (May 5 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9665/75 (Jun 5 high, МА (100) for Н1)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9630 (МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: Chf0.9608

Support 1: Chf0.9575 (Jun 5 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9530 (area of May 24-28 lows)

Support 3: Chf0.9490 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9040-Chf0,9780)

Resistance 3 : $1.5720 (area of May 24, 28-29 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (38,2 % FIBO $1.6300-$ 1.5260)

Resistance 1 : $1.5520 (May 31 high, МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: $1.5480

Support 1 : $1.5400 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 2 : $1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3 : $1.5260 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2670 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2280)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620 (May 24 and 28 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.2540 (session high)
Current price: $1.2502
Support 1 : $1.2470 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.2425/05 (Jun 5 low, МА (100) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.2290 (Jun 1 low)

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2425, $1.2500, $1.2600, $1.2650

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.25, Y79.75-80

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8000

USD/CHF Chf0.9650

AUD/USD $0.9800, $0.9700, $0.9600

Asian stocks rose, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index heading for its biggest two-day advance in five months, as reports showed Australia’s economy expanded twice as fast as economists estimated and U.S. service industries grew.

Nikkei 225 8,533.53 +151.53 +1.81%

S&P/ASX 200 4,055.3 +11.61 +0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,302.53 -9.39 -0.41%

Westfield Group, the world’s biggest shopping center operator by assets, advanced 3.5 percent in Sydney. Sharp Corp., Japan’s largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, rose 6.9 percent.

Tokyo Derica Co., which sells women’s leather handbags, surged 17 percent after canceling a share sale.

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.4% +0.5% +1.3%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +2.3% +3.2% +4.3%

Yesterday the yen weakened against the dollar for a second day after Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi indicated that Group of Seven nations remain supportive of intervention to address extreme currency moves.

After reaching its weakest level against the dollar on March 15, the yen had strengthened as much as 7 percent. Japan’s Azumi said he told finance ministers a strong yen was depressing the nation’s stock market and damaging its economy by making exports more expensive.

The euro fell, ending two days of gains against the greenback, as Spanish Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said the nation faces difficulties in accessing capital markets. Brazil’s real gained the most in a week as the central bank sold currency swap contracts.

The common currency weakened for the first time in three days against the yen after European retail sales fell more in April than economists forecast and German factory orders declined

Euro-region retail sales declined 1.0% in April, after gaining 0.3% the previous month, the European Union’s statistics office said in Luxembourg. Economists forecast a drop of 0.1%.  German factory orders fell 1.9% from March, the Economy Ministry said in Berlin.

Asian stocks rose amid speculation global policy makers will join the Reserve Bank of Australia in taking steps to stimulate economic growth and after a four-day drop left the regional gauge at the cheapest level this year.

Nikkei 225 8,382 +86.37 +1.04%

S&P/ASX 200 4,043.7 +58.67 +1.47%

Shanghai Composite 2,313.22 +4.67 +0.20%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender by market value, advanced 1.9 percent as the central bank cut interest rates.

Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker whose shares fell yesterday to the lowest level since April 2009, gained 3.4 percent on a stock buyback plan.

Qantas Airways Ltd. tumbled 19 percent in Sydney to a record low after forecasting full-year profit may plunge as much as 91 percent.

European stocks extended their advance, snapping a four-day decline, as the U.S. services industry expanded at a faster pace than estimated and investors speculated that policy makers will stimulate economic growth.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven economies agreed to coordinate their response to the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis on a conference call.

G-7 officials said they will work together to help Greece and Spain place their public finances on a sustainable footing, Japan’s Finance Minister, Jun Azumi, told reporters in Tokyo following the call today.

A gauge of euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 46 from 46.7 in April, London-based Markit Economics said today, compared with an estimate of 45.9 published on June 1.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 13 of the 16 western European markets that opened today. Germany’s DAX fell 0.2 percent, while the Swiss Market Index was little changed. France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.1 percent.

CaixaBank added 2.6 percent to 2.17 euros and Bankinter SA rose 2.3 percent to 2.53 euros. Spain’s Budget Minister, Cristobal Montoro, said that the European Union should provide financial aid to the banks.

Telekom Austria AG surged 4.3 percent to 7.57 euros after News Magazine reported that Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man, has acquired a 4.1 percent stake in the company.

Resistance 3: Y79.65 (May 29 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.30 (May 28-29 low)

Resistance 1: Y79.15 (May 31 high)

The current price: Y78.93

Support 1: Y78.60 (session low)

Support 2: Y78.00/10 (area of Jun 4-5 low)

Support 3: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9770 (Jun 1 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9675/95 (area of Jun 4-5 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9630 (low of the American session on Jun 5)

The current price: Chf0.9599

Support 1: Chf0.9575 (Jun 5 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9555 (May 29 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9525/35 (May 24-28 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.5615 (high of the American session on May 30)

Resistance 2 : $1.5525 (May 31 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5440 (Jun 1 high)

The current price: $1.5429

Support 1 : $1.5370 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3 : $1.5265 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2620/25 (area of May 24-28 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.2575 (May 29 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2540 (Jun 5 high)

The current price: $1.2513

Support 1 : $1.2470 (high of the American session on Jun 5)

Support 2 : $1.2385/05 (area of Jun 4-5 low)

Support 3 : $1.2285 (Jun 1 low)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,618 +4 +0.27%

Oil 84.07 +0.09 +0.11%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,382 +86.37 +1.04%

S&P/ASX 200 4,043.7 +58.67 +1.47%

Shanghai Composite 2,313.22 +4.67 +0.20%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2450 -0,35%

GBP/USD $1,5375 -0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9644 +0,33%

USD/JPY Y78,55 +0,28%

EUR/JPY Y98,04 +0,17%

GBP/JPY Y121,06 +0,48%

AUD/USD $0,9744 +0,28%

NZD/USD $0,7564 +0,11%

USD/CAD C$1,0378 -0,15%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.4% +0.5%

01:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +2.3% +3.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index May -2.4%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y May -0.5%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction May 55.8 54.7

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter I -0.3% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter I +0.7% 0.0%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) April +2.8% -0.9%

10:00 Germany Bank holiday April +1.9% +0.9%

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 1.00% 1.00%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (revised) Quarter I -0.5% -0.6%

14:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - +2.2

18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book -

23:00 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y May -3.3% +0.7%