Forex-novosti i prognoze od 04-06-2012

European stocks declined for a fourth day as reports showed that orders to U.S. factories unexpectedly fell in April and China’s services-industry growth weakened in May.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said European leaders should reinforce efforts to protect euro-area lenders, increasing pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to back new ideas to resolve the debt crisis.

French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici will travel to Brussels today to meet with European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and EU Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier. Moscovici has said that aid for troubled banks should come through the European Stability Mechanism rather than through governments.

National benchmark indexes dropped in nine the 15 western European markets that were open today. Germany’s DAX fell 1.2 percent, while France’s CAC 40 added 0.1 percent

Volkswagen and Daimler dropped 3.2 percent to 119.75 euros and 1.9 percent to 34.85 euros, respectively, as a gauge of European carmakers was the worst performer of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

Aker Solutions declined 3 percent to 75.05 kroner, its lowest since Jan. 31.

Spanish and Italian banks paced gains, as a gauge of European lenders posted the best performance on the Stoxx 600. UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo each rallied 4.5 percent to 2.61 euros and 5.8 percent to 1.06 euros, respectively. Banco Santander SA jumped 4.9 percent to 4.53 euros. Banco BPI SA rallied for the fifth day, its longest stretch of gains since July 2011.

The euro rose for a second day versus the dollar as traders said the shared currency’s decline may have been too quick after European leaders agreed to discuss closer banking cooperation in the euro bloc. European Commission President Jose Barroso and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to discuss proposals on banking coordination when they meet today in Berlin.

The commission, the European Union’s executive, last week called for a “banking union” that would integrate supervision of lenders more tightly and create a pool of EU funds to clean up banks with cross-border exposure. The Brussels-based commission also proposed that the euro’s permanent bailout fund inject cash to banks instead of channeling the money through national governments.

The dollar strengthened against the yen as Treasury yields rose for the first time in four days, from record lows.  The dollar snapped a three-day drop against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi pledged on June 1 to take “decisive action” on his nation’s currency should “excessive moves” persist. Azumi declined to comment on whether Japan has intervened in the currency market at a news conference.

U.S. stocks retreated, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 10 percent from this year’s peak in April, as orders to U.S. factories unexpectedly declined and data added to evidence of a slowdown in China.

Equities fell as data showed that factory orders dropped 0.6 percent in April, pointing to a deceleration in manufacturing. China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman said that Spain knows where to look for aid if it’s needed, giving no ground to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s pleas that Germany consider new ideas to resolve the debt crisis.

Industrial, commodity and financial shares had the biggest losses among 10 groups in the S&P 500. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy slid 1.5 percent. Caterpillar (САТ), the largest maker of construction and mining equipment, dropped 2 percent to $83.83. JPMorgan (JPM) fell 2 percent to $31.28.

Salesforce.com Inc. lost 1.1 percent to $129.55. It agreed to buy Buddy Media Inc. for about $745 million, its biggest purchase ever, adding marketing software to promote products on social sites including Facebook and Twitter Inc.

Chesapeake Energy rallied 1.7 percent to $15.84. Four of the company’s eight non-executive directors will be replaced with nominees of the largest shareholders, Southeastern Asset Management Inc. and Icahn. Icahn triggered the overhaul by acquiring a 7.6 percent stake last month to rein in what he saw as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Aubrey McClendon’s risk- taking and overspending that led to a $22 billion cash crunch and eroded the share price.

Oil fluctuated as economic reports from the U.S. and China signaled that growth may be slowing and as the euro strengthened against the dollar.

Prices traded near the lowest level in eight months as orders to U.S. factories unexpectedly fell in April and China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year in May.

U.S. factory orders dropped 0.6 percent in April after a revised 2.1 percent decrease in March, the first back-to-back declines in more than three years, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.2 percent.

China’s purchasing managers’ index for non-manufacturing industries fell to 55.2 in May from 56.1 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday in Beijing. That’s the lowest reading since March 2011, when the federation started seasonally adjusting the data.

Oil for July delivery traded at a range of $81,21 - $83,73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile.

Brent futures for July settlement declined 89 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $97.54 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

The official price of gold on the Commodity Exchange in New York COMEX trading Friday on the results of June 1, 2012 increased by 3.7% for the first time since the beginning of May 2012 established above 1600 USD/oz. Troy ounce of gold on COMEX has risen to 57.9 dollars, while the official price of its active futures (August) amounted to 1622.1 dollars / ounce - the highest figure since May 4 this year

Since the beginning of the summer season on the COMEX gold futures rose due to increased investment demand for physical gold, caused by fears of further worsening the debt problems of the eurozone. Assets of ETFs SPDR Gold Trust, which is the world's largest holder of gold among investment institutions, June 1, increased by 3.6 m and amounted to 1 273.9 thousand tons - a maximum of two weeks (after May 21, 2012).

Under the influence of bad data on the status of the U.S. labor market the U.S. dollar fell against the June 1 euro and other currencies, which further ensured the conditions for the purchase of gold bullion. The dollar index for the six major world currencies has dropped by about June 1 to 0.2% and dropped to a minimum of three sessions, set below 83 points.

Today, June gold futures on the COMEX is trading in a range 1609,0-1627,9 USD/oz.

Resistance 3:1334 (area of May 29-30 highs)

Resistance 2:1312 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 1:1281/83 (session high, МА (200) for D1)

Current price: 1273.75

Support 1:1265 (session low)

Support 2:1240 (50,0 % FIBO 1070-1420)

Support 3:1200 (area of low of December and 61,8 % FIBO 1070-1420)

EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y79.00, Y79.85

USD/CHF Chf0.9650

AUD/USD $0.9600, $0.9650, $0.9700

U.S. stock futures rose before a report that may show factory orders increased and as Spanish borrowing costs declined.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,295.63 -144.62 -1.71%

Hang Seng 18,185.59 -372.75 -2.01%

Shanghai Composite 2,308.55 -64.89 -2.73%

CAC  2,976.9 +26.43 +0.90%

DAX 6,008.49 -41.80 -0.69%

Crude oil $82.45 (-0.94%)

Gold $1620.70 (-0.09%)

Boeing (BA) was upgraded to a Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus. The firm set its target price at $80.

Bank of America (BAC) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore Partners.

Data:

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence June -24.5 -28.7 -28.9

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM April +0.5% +0.3% 0.0%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) April +3.3% +2.7% +2.6%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2500, $1.2460/80, $1.2440/50 

Bids $1.2385/80, $1.2360, $1.2330/20, $1.2280

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5480, $1.5465, $1.5400/15

Bids $1.5335/30, $1.5310/00, $1.5250, $1.5235/30, $1.5200/190

Resistance 3: Y79.40 (resistance line from Apr 2)
Resistance 2: Y79.20 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y78.70/85 (Jun 1 high, МА (200) for D1, МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: Y78.10
Support 1: Y77.60 (Jun 1 low)
Support 2: Y77.30 (Feb 13-14 lows)
Support 3: Y76.00 (low of February)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9900 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9800 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)

Current price: Chf0.9656

Support 1: Chf0.9640 (Jun 1 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9600 (МА (200) for Н1)

Support 3: Chf0.9530 (area of May 24-28 lows)

Resistance 3 : $1.5530 (May 31 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5500 (МА (100) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.5440 (Jun 1 high)

Current price: $1.5385

Support 1 : $1.5355 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5260 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3 : $1.5230 (low of 2012)

Resistance 3 : $1.2660 (38,2 % FIBO $1,3280-$ 1,2290)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620 (May 24 and 28 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.2500/10 (МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1)
Current price: $1.2433
Support 1 : $1.2400 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2290 (Jun 1 low)
Support 3 : $1.2150 (area of June’2010 low)

EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y79.00, Y79.85

USD/CHF Chf0.9650

AUD/USD $0.9600, $0.9650, $0.9700

Asian stocks fell, with every major benchmark gauge in the region retreating, as economic data in the U.S. and China stoked concern about global growth. Japan’s Topix Index closed at the lowest level since 1983.

Nikkei 225 8,295.63 -144.62 -1.71%

S&P/ASX 200 3,985 -78.88 -1.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,308.55 -64.89 -2.73%

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index joined the Topix in falling more than 20 percent from this year’s high, a drop that would see the measure close in a so-called bear market.

Sony Corp., a Japanese exporter of consumer electronics that gets about a fifth of its sales in the U.S., fell to levels not seen since 1980, when the Walkman was introduced in the U.S.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, and Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, lost at least 2 percent as a gauge of commodities fell to an eight-month low.

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) May -3.1% -2.4%

01:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter I -6.5% -2.2% -4.0%

On Monday euro retreated from highs against the dollar amid weak trading in the absence of any publication statisticsi because bank holidays in Europe and the United States.

Earlier, investor optimism was associated with the news that, according to opinion polls, the majority of the population of Greece supports the center-right party "New Democracy", which stands for the continuation of the country's obligations to international lenders and observance of austerity measures.

On Tuesday the euro fell to the lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar as investor concern about Spain’s ability to recapitalize troubled banks increased, boosting bets the union’s debt crisis is worsening.

The 17-nation currency dropped below $1.25 for the second time this month after Egan-Jones Ratings Co. reduced its credit rating for Spain to B from Bb-. The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as Spanish officials debated how to fund a recapitalization of the Bankia group.

The yen gained against the majority of its most-traded peers amid increased demand for haven assets.

On Wednesday the euro fell to the lowest level in almost two years against the dollar as Spain struggled to rescue its troubled banks, adding to signs the European debt crisis is spreading to the region’s larger economies. Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70 percent, approaching the 7 percent level that led to bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, after central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez resigned a month early amid criticism over the nationalization of Bankia group.

On Thursday the yen gained to a more than 11-year high against the euro as investors sought the perceived safety of the nation’s debt amid a deepening European crisis and slowing U.S. growth. Japan’s currency strengthened against all its major counterparts for a second day as the premium investors receive for buying debt of the U.S., U.K. and Germany instead of Japanese securities fell.

The euro rose from the weakest in almost two years versus the dollar after Dow Jones reported the International Monetary Fund has started planning for a potential rescue of Spain. The European department of the IMF has begun contingency planning for a rescue loan to Spain, Dow Jones reported, citing anonymous sources.

On Friday the yen rose against most of its major counterparts after the U.S. added the least jobs in a year last month, adding to concern global growth is stagnating. Payrolls climbed by 69,000 last month, less than the most- pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, after a revised 77,000 gain in April that was smaller than initially estimated, the Labor Department reported. The median estimate called for a 150,000 May advance. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent, while hours worked declined.

Asian stocks fell after reports on China’s manufacturing and the U.S. economy missed estimates, and as Spain denied it is in talks about a bailout as its bond yields approach a level that prompted rescues in other nations.

Nikkei 225 8,440.25 -102.48 -1.20%

S&P/ASX 200 4,063.9 -12.36 -0.30%

Shanghai Composite 2,374.37 +2.14 +0.09%

Sony Corp., a Japanese exporter of consumer electronics that gets 37 percent of its sales in the U.S. and Europe, fell 2.6 percent in Tokyo.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s biggest lender by market value, declined 0.9 percent in Hong Kong.

BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s No. 1 mining company and oil producer, lost 1.8 percent after metal and crude prices dropped.

Resistance 3: Y79.15 (May 31 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.90 (high of the European session on May 31)

Resistance 1: Y78.70 (Jun 1 high)

The current price: Y78.17

Support 1: Y78.00 (session low)

Support 2: Y77.65 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3: Y77.35 (Feb 14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9770 (Jun 1 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9695 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9683

Support 1: Chf0.9640 (Jun 1 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9610 (May 25-29 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9560 (May 29 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5615 (high of the American session on May 30)

Resistance 2 : $1.5525 (May 31 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5440 (Jun 1 high)

The current price: $1.5362

Support 1 : $1.5340 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5265 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3 : $1.5200 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.2575 (May 29 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2510 (May 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2455 (Jun 1 high)

The current price: $1.2404

Support 1 : $1.2385 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2285 (Jun 1 low)

Support 3 : $1.2200 (psychological level)

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday -

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) May -3.1%

01:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter I -6.5% -2.2%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence June -24.5 -28.7

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM April +0.5% +0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) April +3.3% +2.7%

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders April -1.5% +0.3%

23:30 Australia AIG Services Index May 39.6