Forex-novosti i prognoze od 31-05-2012

European stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest monthly drop since August, as the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance payments rose and U.S. business activity slowed.

The Irish vote on the European Union’s latest treaty today, with polls indicating they will endorse measures designed to ease the euro region’s debt crisis.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the ECB cannot fill the “vacuum” of the lack of fiscal prudence and governance in the euro area and called for Europe’s leaders to outline where they see the euro region in the future.

Business activity in the U.S. expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in May as orders and production cooled.

National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets today, except the U.K., France, Greece and Austria. Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3 percent, the Swiss Market Index fell 0.9 percent, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.1 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2 percent

ABB, the biggest supplier of mobile power stations, declined 2.9 percent to 15.21 Swiss francs. The company will probably fail to reach the upper end of revenue targets for its low-voltage subsidiary on lackluster demand from China and Italy, said Tarak Mehta, the head of the unit.

Logica jumped 66 percent to 1.37 euros in Amsterdam after Montreal-based CGI announced it had reached an agreement to buy the U.K. computer-services provider in a 1.7 billion pounds cash transaction, offering a premium of 59.8 percent to its closing price yesterday.

The yen gained to a more than 11-year high against the euro as investors sought the perceived safety of the nation’s debt amid a deepening European crisis and slowing U.S. growth. Japan’s currency strengthened against all its major counterparts for a second day as the premium investors receive for buying debt of the U.S., U.K. and Germany instead of Japanese securities fell.

The euro rose from the weakest in almost two years versus the dollar after Dow Jones reported the International Monetary Fund has started planning for a potential rescue of Spain. The European department of the IMF has begun contingency planning for a rescue loan to Spain, Dow Jones reported, citing anonymous sources.

Data showed the U.S. economic expansion slowed before tomorrow’s Labor Department payroll data. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter, down from a 2.2 percent prior estimate. The number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance payments rose last week to a one-month high.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was poised for its worst monthly drop since September as the world’s largest economy grew less than previously estimated, business activity expanded at a slower pace and jobless claims increased.

Equities slumped after data showed business activity in the U.S. expanded in May at the slowest pace in more than two years. The number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance payments rose last week to a one-month high. Gross domestic product climbed at a 1.9 percent annual rate from January through March, down from a 2.2 percent prior estimate.

Investors also watched the latest developments in Europe’s attempts to tame its crisis. Italy’s prime minister and central bank chief pressed Germany to back more aggressive efforts to snuff out the escalating debt crisis, setting up a south-north showdown over how to stabilize the 17-nation euro economy.

Joy Global tumbled 7 percent to $54.90, driving industrial shares lower. The maker of P&H and Joy mining equipment cut forecasts for full-year earnings and revenue as mining companies ease capital expenditure amid concern over the slowdown in China. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest maker of construction and mining equipment, sank 4 percent to $86.62.

Facebook, which this week fell below $30 for the first time, dropped 3.4 percent to $27.22. The shares dropped for a fourth straight day amid concern that the world’s largest social-networking service will struggle to wring profit from its 901 million users.

Kohl’s Corp. retreated 5.6 percent to $46.10 after the retailer said May same-store sales decreased 4.2 percent. That compares with the average estimate for a 1.1 percent decline.

Talbots climbed 91 percent to $2.47. The women’s clothing retailer trying to reverse falling sales agreed to be bought by private-equity firm Sycamore Partners for a reduced price of $369 million, including debt. Talbots accepted the lower bid after last week saying it had failed to reach an agreement with Sycamore during 2 1/2 weeks of exclusive talks.

Ciena Corp. climbed 7.5 percent to $12.77. The maker of networking equipment rose after second-quarter sales and earnings topped analysts’ estimates. Ciena is capitalizing on demand for speedy fiber-optic networks, which transmit data in the form of light over fiber strands.

Crude oil futures extended losses after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles increased to a 22-year high.

Inventories of crude oil rose 2.21 million barrels to 384.7 million, a 10th consecutive weekly increase, the department said. Supplies were forecast to grow 1 million barrels.

Oil also fell on speculation that slowing U.S. economic growth and Europe’s debt crisis will reduce fuel demand. More Americans applied for jobless benefits last week, ADP said companies added fewer positions than expected in May and the economy expanded less than estimated.

Crude oil for July delivery fell to $85.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for July settlement decreased $2.02, or 2 percent, to $101.45 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices have dropped 15 percent this month, the most since December 2008.

The price of gold fluctuates on Thursday at the statistical data on the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits, as well as news on the number of jobs in nonagricultural sectors of the U.S. economy in May.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending May 26, unexpectedly increased by 10,000 and totaled 383,000. Analysts do not expect growth in the number of applications from the previous unrevised figure of 370,000.

The number of jobs in private companies in the USA in May increased by 133,000compared with April, although the projected growth of 150,000 people.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX is kept in the range of $ 1551.8 - $1572.6 per ounce.

Resistance 3:1348/50 (area of May 14-15 highs)

Resistance 2:1334 (area of May 29-30 highs and МА (20) for D1)

Resistance 1:1314 (area of session high and МА (200) for Н1)

Current price: 1302,75

Support 1:1300 (session low)

Support 2:1294 (May 23 low)

Support 3:1288 (low of May)

EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2420, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.80, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5600

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $0.9700, $0.9820, $0.9850

NZD/USD $0.7600

U.S. stock futures pared gains as data showed jobless claims increased and the economy grew more slowly than previously estimated.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,542.73 -90.46 -1.05%

Hang Seng 18,629.52 -60.70 -0.32%

Shanghai Composite 2,372.23 -12.43 -0.52%

FTSE  5,318.91 +21.63 +0.41%

CAC  3,020.96 +5.38 +0.18%

DAX 6,285.81 +5.01 +0.08%

Crude oil $87.45 (-0.42%)

Gold $1564.90 (+0.10%)

Data:

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.0% +0.7%

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +1.3% +0.8% +2.0%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted April +0.8% +0.2% +0.6%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y April +2.3% +0.3% -3.8%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index May -0.2% 0.0% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y May -0.9% -1.1% -0.7%

06:45 France Consumer spending April -2.9% +0.3% +0.6%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y April -2.0% 0.0% +0.4%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May 19 -7 0

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%

The euro retreated as Spanish and Italian bonds rallied amid speculation the European Central Bank will announce measures to combat the debt crisis when it meets next week.

The common currency rose as polls suggested Irish voters will today endorse measures to ease the region’s debt crisis.

The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as gains in European stocks damped demand for the relative safety of the greenback. The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona led gains in higher-yielding currencies.

EUR/USD: the pair restored above $1,2400.

GBP/USD: the pair showed high above $1,5500.

USD/JPY: the pair receded from in Y78,70 area, but fell again later.

 

At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to a reading of 56.8 in May after falling sharply in April. Other regional data already released have been mixed. At 1430GMT, the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage, followed at 1500GMT by the EIA Crude Oil stocks data. At 1500GMT, the New York Federal Reserve Bank releases it's Q1 report on Household Debt and Credit. Late US data sees the 1900GMT release of farm prices data and the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2550, $1.2500, $1.2480/85, $1.2440/60
Bids $1.2360/50, $1.2335/25

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5615/25, $1.5595/600, $1.5580, $1.5540/55
Bids $1.5480, $1.5450, $1.5420-00

AUD/USD
Offers $0.9895/00, $0.9875/80, $0.9850, $0.9840/45, $0.9800/05, $0.9785/90, $0.9760/65
Bids $0.9720/15, $0.9700, $0.9665/60, $0.9650, $0.9600

EUR/JPY
Offers Y99.50, Y99.15/20, Y99.00, Y98.65/70, Y98.45/50
Bids Y97.65/60, Y97.00, Y96.50

USD/JPY
Offers Y79.85, Y79.45/50, Y79.30, Y79.00
Bids Y78.75/70, Y78.60, Y78.50, Y78.20/15

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8075/80, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8015/20
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950, stg0.7935/30, stg0.7900

Resistance 3: Y79.60 (resistance line from Apr 2)
Resistance 2: Y79.30/40 (area МА (200) and МА (100) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y79.10 (session high)
Current price: Y78.80
Support 1: Y78.70/60 (session low, МА (200) for D1))
Support 2: Y78.20 (earlier resistance, area of December and January highs)
Support 3: Y77.30 (Feb 13-14 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9800 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9720 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9685

Support 1: Chf0.9660 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9610 (МА (100) for Н1)

Support 3: Chf0.9550 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 2 : $1.5680 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 2 : $1.5620 (МА (100) for Н1)

Resistance 1 : $1.5525 (session high)

Current price: $1.5491

Support 1 : $1.5460 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5400 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.5230 (low of 2012)

Resistance 3 : $1.2620 (May 24 and 28 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.2575 (May 29 high, МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1)
Resistance 1 : $1.2500 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: $1.2400
Support 1 : $1.2360 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2300 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2150 (area of lows of June’2010)

EUR/USD $1.2350, $1.2420, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.80, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5600

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $0.9700, $0.9820, $0.9850

NZD/USD $0.7600

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence April 35.8 27.1

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m April +7.4% +0.7% -8.7%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y April -15.0% -13.8% -24.1%

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -0.3% +4.1% +6.1%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m April +0.4% +0.3% +0.4%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y April +3.4% +3.7% +3.8%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April +1.3% +1.1% +0.8%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln April 0.848 0.838 0.896

Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark regional gauge headed to its biggest monthly drop since 2008, as Europe’s debt crisis threatened to engulf countries other than Greece and Japan’s factory output trailed estimates.

Nikkei 225 8,542.73 -90.46 -1.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,076.3 -17.93 -0.44%

Shanghai Composite 2,371.32 -13.35 -0.56%

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. a machinery maker, fell 2 percent in Tokyo. Technology companies led declines, with Samsung Electronics Co., which gets a fifth of its sales from Europe, sliding 1.2 percent in Seoul.

James Hardie Industries SE, a seller of home siding that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, retreated 0.8 percent in Sydney after U.S. home sales declined.

Cnooc Ltd., China’s No. 1 offshore energy explorer, dropped 1.3 percent in Hong Kong as oil futures in New York entered a bear market.

Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest level in almost two years against the dollar as Spain struggled to rescue its troubled banks, adding to signs the European debt crisis is spreading to the region’s larger economies. Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70 percent, approaching the 7 percent level that led to bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, after central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez resigned a month early amid criticism over the nationalization of Bankia group.

The 17-nation currency slid for a seventh day versus the yen, the longest losing streak in four months, after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

The yen and dollar strengthened as investors sought safer assets after a European report showed economic confidence dropped more than economists estimated in May.  The European Commission called for direct euro-bloc aid for troubled banks and touted a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system and common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis now threatening to overwhelm Spain.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, as China damped optimism for large-scale stimulus, adding to global growth concerns after Spain’s credit rating was downgraded.

Nikkei 225 8,633.19 -23.89 -0.28%

S&P/ASX 200 4,094.2 -20.21 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,381.26 -8.37 -0.35%

Samsung Electronics Co., an exporter of consumer electronics that gets 47 percent of its sales in Europe and China, lost 1 percent in Seoul.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slid 2.1 percent.

Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers for cars, surged 27 percent in Tokyo after short-selling of its shares was restricted.

• Significant shortcoming in bank funding structures
• ECB can't fill vaccuum on EMU governance
• The sooner leaders clarify their vision, the better
• ECB can't fill vaccuum of govt fin.,structural reform
• Clear vision of euro future is key for growth
• First need vision, then to substantiate that vision
• A first step could be a banking union
• In recapitalization, better to err by doing too much
• More centralisation for bank supervision is needed
• ECB done a lot in very short time
• ECB can't address bank capital shortage

Resistance 3: Y79.30 (May 28 low)

Resistance 2: Y79.15 (session high)

Resistance 1: Y78.85 (May 30 low)

The current price: Y78.77

Support 1: Y78.70 (session low)

Support 2: Y78.15 (Feb 15 low)

Support 3: Y77.80 (Feb 10 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9775 (Feb 11 high 2011)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9740 (Feb 16 high 2011)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9720 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9697

Support 1: Chf0.9665 (high of the European session on May 30)

Support 2: Chf0.9610 (May 25-29 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9560 (May 29 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5645 (May 23 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5615 (high of the American session on May 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5550 (low of the European session on May 30)

The current price: $1.5476

Support 1 : $1.5460 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5400 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.5325 (Jan 18 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2575 (May 29 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2510 (May 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2420 (low of the European session on May 30)

The current price: $1.2375

Support 1 : $1.2355 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.2300 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.2200 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,564 +13 +0.81%

Oil 87.46 -3.30 -3.64%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,633.19 -23.89 -0.28%

S&P/ASX 200 4,094.2 -20.21 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,381.26 -8.37 -0.35%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2368 -0,95%

GBP/USD $1,5481 -0,99%

USD/CHF Chf0,9709 +0,96%

USD/JPY Y79,11 -0,52%

EUR/JPY Y97,84 -1,49%

GBP/JPY Y122,45 -1,54%

AUD/USD $0,9710 -1,28%

NZD/USD $0,7528 -1,16%

USD/CAD C$1,0295 +0,64%

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence April 35.8

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m April +7.4% +0.7%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y April -15.0% -13.8%

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -0.3% +4.1%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m April +0.4% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y April +3.4% +3.7%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY April +1.3% +1.1%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, bln April 0.848 0.838

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.1% +0.0%

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +1.3% +0.8%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted April +0.8% +0.2%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y April +2.3% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index May -0.2% 0.0%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y May -0.9% -1.1%

06:45 France Consumer spending April -2.9% +0.3%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y April -2.0% 0.0%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May 19 -7

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 6.8% 6.8%

08:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks -

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) May +2.6% +2.5%

12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report May 119 139

12:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter I -10.3 -11.1

12:30 U.S. GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter I +3.0% +1.9%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I +2.1% +2.1%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 370 369

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index May 56.2 56.8

15:00 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change - +0.9

23:50 Japan Capital Spending Quarter I +7.6% +1.3%