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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 28-05-2012
European stocks were little changed, following last week’s rally for the region’s equity benchmark, as a selloff in banks offset Greek opinion polls that eased concern the country will leave the euro.
Greece’s New Democracy, which supports the spending cuts and tax increases imposed by the European Union, came first in all six opinion polls published on May 26 as campaigning continued for the general election on June 17.
Party leader Antonis Samaras said Greece’s departure from the euro would cause incomes, bank deposits and property values to lose at least half their value within days, while food prices would rise by a quarter.
National benchmark indexes declined in 9 of the 12 western- European markets that opened today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped less than 0.1 percent, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3 percent and France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.2 percent.
Bankia, the lender that Spain nationalized this month, tumbled 13 percent to 1.37 euros after the group said it will seek state funds as it set aside provisions for residential mortgages and lending to companies.
The group took provisions of 5.5 billion euros for non-real estate lending after stress-testing the loans, Director General Jose Sevilla told reporters in Madrid on May 26. It also reclassified 300 million euros of lending, that it had booked as loans to small- and medium-sized companies, as lending to property developers, Chairman Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri said.
Banco Popular retreated 7 percent to 1.72 euros and Bankinter dropped 4.2 percent to 2.81 euros. A gauge of bank shares lost 1.1 percent, led by Spanish and Italian lenders.
Rio Tinto, the world’s third-biggest mining company, gained 2.2 percent to 2,855 pence, Antofagasta Plc increased 2 percent to 1,037 pence and BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest mining company, rose 0.7 percent to 1,716 pence.
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2600, $1.2625, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.5700, $1.5885
EUR/CHF Chf1.2000, Chf1.2025
AUD/USD $0.9850, $0.9760
US public shouldn't get too agitated over Europe risks
Main risk to US is if Greece causes broad bank-funding freeze
Europe concerns may spur safe-haven flow of liquidity into US
Sees US GDP growth 2.5% to 3% this year and 2013, unemployment falling
Euro retreated from highs against the dollar amid weak trading in the absence of any publication statisticsi because bank holidays in Europe and the United States.
Earlier, investor optimism was associated with the news that, according to opinion polls, the majority of the population of Greece supports the center-right party "New Democracy", which stands for the continuation of the country's obligations to international lenders and observance of austerity measures. According to Greek analytical agency Kapa Research SA, for the party "New Democracy" may vote by 5.7% more voters than in the radical left SYRIZA block, which calls for the immediate rejection of the agreements with creditors. In addition, investors pleased with reports that the National Development and Reform Commission of China approved three major construction project, which is an implementation of government's intention to support the growth of Chinese economy.
The British pound traded cautiously against the dollar due to the fact that the inflation report, indicating a greater propensity for soft policies than expected, low inflation and low retail sales data suggest that the obstacles to further monetary easing in the UK may be lower than previously thought.
EUR/USD: the pair showed high in $1,2625 area then returned to area of session low $1,2560.
GBP/USD: the pair was limited $1,5670-$ 1,5715.
USD/JPY: the pair receded in Y79.30 area.
В 15:00 GMT выступит с речью член Комитета по денежной политике Dr Ben Broadbent. Япония в 23:30 GMT опубликует изменение объема уровня расходов домохозяйств, а в 23:50 GMT - изменение объема розничной торговли за апрель.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2700, $1.2640/55
Bids $1.2550, $1.2485/80
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5885, $1.5800, $1.5770, $1.5750
Bids $1.5670, $1.5650, $1.5610/00, $1.5580
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9985, $0.9960/65, $0.9950, $0.9920/25, $0.9900
Bids $0.9830/25, $0.9800, $0.9765/60, $0.9735/30
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.25/30, Y101.00, Y100.80/85, Y100.45/50
Bids Y99.55/50, Y99.00, Y98.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10/15, Y80.00, Y79.80/85, Y79.50/55
Bids Y79.30/20, Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8075/80, stg0.8045/50
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950, stg0.7935/30, stg0.7900
Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: Y79.80 (resistance line from Apr 2)
Resistance 1: Y79.60 (МА (200) and МА (100) for Н1, resistance line from May 22)
Current price: Y79.38
Support 1: Y79.20 (May 23 low)
Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18 low)
Support 3: Y78.55 (МА (200) for D1)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9600 (area of May 24-25 highs and high of January)
Current price: Chf0.9553
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (session low, May 24-25 lows, МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9470/60 (МА (200) for Н1 and May 22 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9370 (May 21-22 lows)
Resistance 3 : $1.5840 (area of May 18-22 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5770 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1 : $1.5720 (session high)
Current price: $1.5701
Support 1 : $1.5670 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5630 (area of May 24-25 lows)
Support 3 : $1.5600 (psychological level, low of March)
Resistance 3 : $1.2820 (area of May 21-22 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.2670 (МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1)
Resistance 1 : $1.2620 (session high)
Current price: $1.2576
Support 1 : $1.2560 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2500 (area of May 24-25 lows)
Support 3 : $1.2400 (psychological level)
European stocks rose after Greek opinion polls eased concern that the country will leave the euro currency union.
Greece’s New Democracy, which supports the spending cuts and tax increases imposed by the European Union, came first in all six opinion polls published on May 26 as campaigning continued for the general election on June 17.
Currently:
FTSE 5,405.21 +53.68 +1.00%
CAC 3,075.19 +27.25 +0.89%
E418mln Sep 2016; avg yield 4.39%, cover 2.29;
E333mln Sep 2017; avg yield 4.60% (3.88%), cover 2.63 (2.13).
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2600, $1.2625, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.50, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.5700, $1.5885
EUR/CHF Chf1.2000, Chf1.2025
AUD/USD $0.9850, $0.9760
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from a five-month low, as concern eased that Greece may exit the euro, outweighing a report that profit growth slowed at China’s industrial companies.
Nikkei 225 8,593.15 +12.76 +0.15%
S&P/ASX 200 4,068 +38.75 +0.96%
Shanghai Composite 2,354.65 +21.09 +0.90%
Nintendo Co., a Japanese maker of game consoles that depends on Europe for a third of its sales, climbed 2.6 percent in Osaka.
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a retailer that gets 79 percent of sales in the debt-stricken region, advanced 2.1 percent.
Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers for cars, sank 11 percent after a person briefed on the matter said it plans to raise 100 billion yen ($1.3 billion) and eliminate more than 10,000 jobs.
00:00 Switzerland Bank holiday -
00:00 Germany Bank holiday -
00:00 France Bank holiday -
00:00 U.S. Bank holiday
The dollar fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after opinion polls in Greece showed voters warming to parties supporting the European Union’s bailout, easing concern the country will exit the currency bloc. New Democracy, which supports the plan negotiated by Greece’s government with international lenders, placed first in all six opinion polls published on May 26 as campaigning continued for next month’s general election. The party led by a margin of as much as 5.7 percentage points over Syriza, the main party opposed to implementing the terms of financial aid packages, according to a poll by Kapa Research SA for To Vima newspaper.
The 17-nation euro rebounded from the lowest since July 2010 after data showed trader bets on a decline in the euro reached a record high. A final reading will probably confirm that consumer confidence in the euro area was at minus 19.3 in May, little changed from minus 19.9 in the previous month, according to economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the figures are released May 30. The unemployment rate climbed to 11 percent in April, the highest in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1990, economist forecasts in a separate poll showed before the June 1 report.
Spain plans to inject public debt instead of cash directly into the Bankia Group to pay for the bank’s recapitalization and avoid having to go to market with the instruments, El Pais reported yesterday, without citing anyone.
Until now, to pay for bank bailouts, the state would sell debt in the market through its bank rescue fund and use the cash to aid banks. A jump in yields has made debt sales more difficult and expensive, El Pais said.
U.S. financial markets are shut today for the Memorial Day national holiday.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain to $1.2600.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose above $1.5700.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell come nearer to a last week’s low.
No data expected, but at 1500GMT, Bank of England MPC Member Ben Broadbent delivers a speech at Bloomberg offices. US government offices and markets remain closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday, thinning liquidity in markets.
On Monday the yen declined on speculation the Bank of Japan will add to stimulus measures this week to support growth and weaken the nation’s foreign-exchange rates. Japan’s currency slid as speculation European officials may step up efforts to tackle the debt crisis damped demand for haven assets. The euro erased losses against the dollar as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Germany and France will do “everything necessary” to keep Greece in the shared currency.
On Tuesday the yen weakened the most in a month against the dollar after Fitch Ratings cut Japan’s credit ranking, saying the nation isn’t acting quickly enough to tackle its public debt burden. Fitch lowered Japan’s long-term, foreign-currency ranking to A+ from AA, and cut the local-currency grade to A+ from AA-, the company said in a statement. The euro dropped toward a four-month low against the greenback after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Europe’s debt crisis risks spiraling.
On Wednesday the euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar since July 2010 on speculation a summit of European Union leaders will provide no new measures to stem the sovereign-debt crisis. The shared currency extended losses after dropping below 100 yen for the first time since February and weakening to less than $1.26, price levels where traders who follow technical analysis said sell orders were clustered.
On Thursday the euro fluctuated against the dollar after touching the weakest level since July 2010 as German manufacturing data dropped and traders speculated measures may be taken to relieve the bloc’s debt crisis. A German index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry declined to 45 this month from 46.2 in April, Markit Economics said.
The Swiss franc weakened to its lowest level in two months against the euro amid speculation the central bank may take action to discourage investment in the nation through taxing deposits.
On Friday the euro touched its lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar amid concern Spain’s regional governments may lose access to capital markets. The shared currency erased earlier gains against the dollar and yen after Catalan President Artur Mas repeated his call for Spanish central government to help regions access funding and remained lower after Standard & Poor’s cut the credit ratings of five Spanish banks.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index extending a four-week loss, on concern China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years amid an economic slowdown.
China Minsheng Banking Corp. fell 3 percent, leading banks lower in Hong Kong.
Nikkei 225 8,580.39 +17.01 +0.20%
S&P/ASX 200 -26.65 -0.66%
Shanghai Composite 2,333.55 -17.42 -0.74%
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that depends on Europe for 79 percent of its sales, lost 3.1 percent in Hong Kong. Sims Metal Management Ltd. slid 6.1 percent in Sydney as the processor of scrap metal forecast full-year earnings will decline.
European stocks climbed, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s first weekly advance in May, as Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said that most European Union leaders support joint bonds for the euro area.
Spain’s central government will analyze “with all caution” requests from regional governments to help them regain access to capital markets, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said today after a cabinet meeting.
Catalonia will comply with its budget program and will honor its commitments, the regional government said today.
Monti told Italian television station La7 yesterday that the majority of EU leaders at a Brussels meeting this week backed joint euro-area bonds. He added that Italy can help persuade Germany to support Europe’s “common good” as well.
National benchmark indexes climbed in 13 of the 18 western- European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX increased 0.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.3 percent. Greece’s ASE sank 3.5 percent.
Lonmin and Fresnillo retreated 1.6 percent to 729 pence and 2.2 percent to 1,317 pence, respectively. Vedanta Resources Plc declined 3.3 percent to 966.5 pence. A gauge of mining companies posted the biggest decline on the Stoxx 600.
Mobistar, Belgium’s second-biggest mobile-phone company, slid 3.4 percent to 25.45 euros and Telecom Italia SpA lost 2 percent to 69.5 euro cents.
U.S. stocks fell, trimming the first weekly gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since April, as concern about Spain’s finances tempered optimism with data showing American consumer confidence rose to a four-year high.
Spain is analyzing requests from regional governments to help them regain access to capital markets, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said today. Catalonia’s government said it is complying “strictly” with its budget program and will honor its commitments. The Bankia group, a Spanish lender nationalized earlier this month, will seek 19 billion euros ($23.8 billion) of government funds. In the U.S., the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 79.3 in May, beating estimates.
Eight out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell today. Boeing (ВА), the largest aerospace company, retreated 2 percent to $70. JPMorgan (JPM) declined 1.4 percent to $33.50.
Talbots Inc. tumbled 41 percent, the most ever, to $1.51. The company ended exclusive talks to be bought by Sycamore Partners for $215 million and saying it will explore other strategic alternatives.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. rallied 1.5 percent to $15.81. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn, known for pushing for change at the companies in which he invests, reported that he has a 7.56 percent stake in the company. The news came after the close of regular trading.
RealD Inc. surged 2.9 percent to $11.47. The maker of three-dimensional projection gear advanced after Sony Pictures agreed to pay for 3-D glasses for showings of “Men in Black 3,” the movie opening in U.S. theaters today.
Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.80 (May 25 high)
The current price: Y79.41
Support 1: Y79.20 (May 23 low)
Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18-21 low)
Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 high)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9640 (161.8% FIBO Chf0.9465-Chf0.9575)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9610 (May 25 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9575 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9545
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (May 24 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9465 (May 23 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9440 (May 21 high)
Resistance 3 : $1.5850 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5775 (May 23 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5725 (May 24 high)
The current price: $1.5701
Support 1 : $1.5670 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5625 (May 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.5600 (psychological low)
Resistance 3 : $1.2685 (May 23 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620 (May 24 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2600 (session high)
The current price: $1.2588
Support 1 : $1.2560 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2495 (May 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.2455 (161.8% FIBO $1.2690-$1.2545)
00:00 Switzerland Bank holiday -
00:00 Germany Bank holiday -
00:00 France Bank holiday -
00:00 U.S. Bank holiday -
15:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks -
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y April +3.4% +2.5%
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate April 4.5% 4.5%
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