Forex-novosti i prognoze od 30-05-2012

European stocks dropped the most in a week as Italy failed to meet its maximum target at a debt sale, Spain struggled to bolster its banking system and a Greek poll showed increased support for parties opposed to spending cuts.

Italian bonds fell for a fourth day, the longest stretch of losses in more than a month. The nation’s borrowing costs rose at an auction today as it sold 5.73 billion euros ($7.1 billion) of five-year and 10-year securities, short of its maximum target of 6.25 billion euros.

In Greece, a VPRC opinion poll for Epikaira magazine showed that anti-austerity group Syriza had the support of 30 percent of voters, compared with 26.5 percent for New Democracy, which backs the terms of a European Union bailout. Greece holds new elections on June 17.

National benchmark indexes slipped all the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.7 percent and Germany’s DAX fell 1.8 percent, while France’s CAC 40 (CAC) slid 2.2 percent. Greece’s ASE Index slumped 3.2 percent.

BASF dropped 2 percent to 56.79 euros after Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung cited Deputy Chief Executive Officer Martin Brudermueller as saying the company isn’t seeing the kind of dynamism it expected in Asia. BASF is considering taking a partner in India, where a backlog of policy changes is holding back growth, the official said.

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto declined 2.5 percent to 1,707.5 pence and 4.1 percent to 2,801 pence, respectively. Copper fell for a second day, poised for the biggest monthly drop since September.

Fiat Industrial SpA, the truck and tractor manufacturer that Italian carmaker Fiat SpA spun off in 2011, gained 1 percent to 7.97 euros after saying it will merge with tractor unit CNH Global and move its primary listing to New York.

The euro fell to the lowest level in almost two years against the dollar as Spain struggled to rescue its troubled banks, adding to signs the European debt crisis is spreading to the region’s larger economies. Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70 percent, approaching the 7 percent level that led to bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, after central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez resigned a month early amid criticism over the nationalization of Bankia group.

The 17-nation currency slid for a seventh day versus the yen, the longest losing streak in four months, after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

The yen and dollar strengthened as investors sought safer assets after a European report showed economic confidence dropped more than economists estimated in May.  The European Commission called for direct euro-bloc aid for troubled banks and touted a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system and common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis now threatening to overwhelm Spain.

U.S. stocks fell, putting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on pace for its worst month since September, after a gauge of pending home sales dropped by the most in a year and concern that Greece will leave the euro grew.

Global stocks slumped while U.S. Treasury 10-year yields slid to a record and the euro weakened to a two-year low. An opinion poll showed most Greeks want to see the terms of an international financial rescue revised. In the U.S., the index of pending home resales dropped 5.5 percent, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today. The median forecast of economists surveyed called for no change.

Earlier today, equity futures briefly pared losses as the European Commission called for direct euro-area aid for troubled banks, and touted a Europe-wide deposit-guarantee system and common bond issuance as antidotes to the debt crisis now threatening to overwhelm Spain.

RIM sank 7.5 percent to $10.39, the lowest level since 2003. An exodus of customers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone and Google Inc.’s Android devices has taken a toll on sales and profit, putting pressure on management to make changes. An operating loss would be the company’s first since 2004.

Sears Holdings Corp., the department-store chain controlled by hedge fund manager Edward Lampert, and Kohl’s Corp. led declines in retail stocks ahead of tomorrow’s industrywide monthly sales report.

Sears, based in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, declined 8.6 percent to $52.55 for the largest drop in the S&P 500. Kohl’s slumped 2.7 percent to $49.25, while Macy’s Inc. fell 1.7 percent to $38.34.

Oil tumbled to a seven-month low on speculation that U.S. crude stockpiles climbed to the highest level since 1990 and as the euro weakened on concern that the debt crisis will overwhelm Spain.

New York futures fell as much as 3.6 percent and Brent oil traded in London dropped below $104 a barrel for the first time this year. An Energy Department report tomorrow is projected to show that U.S. supplies rose 1 million barrels to 383.5 million last week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The euro fell versus the dollar as Spain’s default risk increased.

The drop in prices accelerated after a report showed the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in April by the most in a year. The index of pending home resales dropped 5.5 percent following a revised 3.8 percent gain the prior month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington.

Oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $87.49, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 24. Prices are down 16 percent this month, the biggest drop since December 2008.

Brent oil for July settlement declined $2.94, or 2.8 percent, to $103.74 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched $103.23, the lowest level since Dec. 19.

Gold prices decline stopped after comments from the European Commission on anti-debt crisis in the eurozone.

Eurozone must accelerate economic growth and reduce debt to regain investor confidence, but it must also move in the direction of the banking union, think of Eurobonds and direct recapitalization of banks through a permanent relief fund, according to the recommendations of the Commission.

The cost of borrowing for Spain in the meantime has exceeded 6.5 percent, while government bond yield at over 7 percent of other countries on the periphery of the eurozone have been forced to apply for financial aid. Against this backdrop, the euro fell to the lowest level in two years against the dollar.

From the macro-economic statistics coming out this week, the impact on the gold market may have data on the growth of the U.S. economy coming out on Thursday, and employment data coming out on Friday.

Stocks of gold-ETF-fund down the third consecutive month, dropping to a four-month low 69.59 million ounces.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today has grown to $ 1555.8 an ounce, then dropped to $ 1530.4 and is now trading at $ 1547.4 an ounce.

Resistance 3:1363 (May 10-11 high)

Resistance 2:1348/50 (area of May 14-15 highs)

Resistance 1:1334 (area of session high, May 29 high and МА (200) for D1)

Current price: 1314,60

Support 1:1314 (area МА (200) for Н1 and session low)

Support 2:1294 (May 23 low)

Support 3:1288 (low of May)

EUR/USD $1.2450, $1.2475, $1.2500, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5650, $1.5735

EUR/GBP stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9705, $0.9800

USD/CAD C$1.0200

U.S. stock futures fell on concern Greece will leave the euro while Spain’s default risk hit a record as it struggles to recapitalize banks.

Global stocks fell as an opinion poll showed most Greeks want to see the terms of an international financial rescue revised.

A report from the National Association of Realtors today will probably show pending home sales in the U.S. were unchanged in April.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,633.19 -23.89 -0.28%

Hang Seng 18,690.22 -365.24 -1.92%

Shanghai Composite 2,384.67 -4.97 -0.21%

FTSE  5,307.86 -83.28 -1.54%

CAC  3,034.23 -50.47 -1.64%

DAX 6,319.41 -77.43 -1.21%

Crude oil $89.26 (-1.65%)

Gold $1547.80 (-0.06%)B

Data:

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator May 0.40 0.44 0.81

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y April +3.2% +3.5% +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln April 1.4 1.2 1.1

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals April 49.9 50.1 51.8

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator May -0.52 -0.67 -0.77

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence May -9.0 -10.2 -11.3

The euro fell  as Spain struggled to rescue its troubled banks, adding to signs the European debt crisis is spreading to the region’s larger economies.

The common currency slid for a seventh day versus the yen, the longest losing streak in four months, after Italy sold less than its maximum target at a debt auction.

The yen and dollar strengthened as investors sought safer assets after a European report showed economic confidence dropped more than economists estimated in May.

Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70%, approaching the 7% level that led to bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, after central bank Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez resigned a month early amid criticism over the nationalization of Bankia group.

The euro dropped for a second day against the greenback as Spain backtracked on a plan to use government debt instead of cash to bail out the nation’s third-largest lender, while Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy struggles to shore up the nation’s lenders without overburdening public finances.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2580, $1.2550, $1.2510, $1.2485 

Bids $1.2420, $1.2360/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5680, $1.5650, $1.5620/25, $1.5595/600

Bids $1.5550/40, $1.5520, $1.5500

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: Y79.70/80 (resistance line from Apr 2, May 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.40 (resistance line from May 22)
Current price: Y79.05
Support 1: Y79.00 (session low, May 18 low)
Support 2: Y78.60 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Y78.20 (earlier resistance, area of highs of December and January)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9670 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9642

Support 1: Chf0.9620 (support line from May 21)

Support 2: Chf0.9590 (МА (100) for Н1)

Support 2: Chf0.9530 (area of May 24-28 lows, support line from May 1, МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.5840 (area of May 18-22 highs)

Resistance 2 : $1.5720 (МА (200) for Н1, May 24, 28-29 highs)

Resistance 1 : $1.5660 (МА (100) for Н1)

Current price: $1.5569

Support 1 : $1.5550 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5520 (support line from May’2010)

Support 3 : $1.5500 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.2600/20 (МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1, May 28 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2575 (May, 29th)
Resistance 1 : $1.2530 (МА (100) for Н1)
Current price: $1.2442
Support 1 : $1.2430 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2400 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2300 (psychological level)

Italy sold E2.341bln vs target E2.0bln-E2.75bln. Avg yield 6.03% (5.84%),cover 1.4 (1.48)

Italy sold E3.391bln vs target E2.5bln-E3.5bln. Avg yield 5.66% (4.86%),cover 1.35 (1.34)

EUR/USD $1.2450, $1.2475, $1.2500, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5650, $1.5735

EUR/GBP stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9705, $0.9800

USD/CAD C$1.0200

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, as China damped optimism for large-scale stimulus, adding to global growth concerns after Spain’s credit rating was downgraded.

Nikkei 225 8,633.19 -23.89 -0.28%

S&P/ASX 200 4,094.2 -20.21 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,381.26 -8.37 -0.35%

Samsung Electronics Co., an exporter of consumer electronics that gets 47 percent of its sales in Europe and China, lost 1 percent in Seoul.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slid 2.1 percent.

Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers for cars, surged 27 percent in Tokyo after short-selling of its shares was restricted.

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) April +0.9% +0.2% -0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y April +1.8% +1.8%

04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

Yesterday the euro fell to the lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar as investor concern about Spain’s ability to recapitalize troubled banks increased, boosting bets the union’s debt crisis is worsening.

The 17-nation currency dropped below $1.25 for the second time this month after Egan-Jones Ratings Co. reduced its credit rating for Spain to B from Bb-. The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as Spanish officials debated how to fund a recapitalization of the Bankia group.

The yen gained against the majority of its most-traded peers amid increased demand for haven assets.

The pound approached a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro amid the monetary union turmoil. It strengthened as much as 0.2 percent to 79.83 pence per euro after reaching 79.51 pence on May 16, the strongest level since November 2008. Sterling has appreciated 4.1 percent this year.

Asian stocks rose amid speculation China will do more to boost growth in the world’s second-largest economy, tempering concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,657.08 +63.93 +0.74%

S&P/ASX 200 4,114.4 +46.37 +1.14%

Shanghai Composite 2,390.68 +29.31 +1.24%

Chinese automakers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Dongfeng Motor Group Co. rose at least 2.4 percent after BNP Paribas SA said they may benefit from government subsidies.

Komatsu Ltd., a Japanese construction machinery maker that gets 14 percent of sales from China, gained 3.2 percent.

Shui On Land Ltd. jumped 7 percent in Hong Kong after the developer controlled by billionaire Vincent Lo said it plans to spin off its Xintiandi entertainment complex unit.

Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.65 (May 29 high)

The current price: Y79.43

Support 1: Y79.20/30 (area of May 23-28 low)

Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18-21 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9740 (Feb 16 high 2011)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9640 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9631

Support 1: Chf0.9600 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9560 (May 29 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9525/30 (area of May 24-28 low)

Resistance 3 : $1.5775 (May 23 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5715/25 (area of May 24-28 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5645 (session high)

The current price: $1.5612

Support 1 : $1.5605 (May 29 low)

Support 2 : $1.5530 (Jan 24-25 low)

Support 3 : $1.5500 (psychological low)

Resistance 3 : $1.2620/25 (area of May 24-28 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.2575 (May 29 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2510 (session high)

The current price: $1.2467

Support 1 : $1.2455 (session low, 111.8% FIBO $1.2824-$1.2495)

Support 2 : $1.2420 (123.6% FIBO $1.2824-$1.2495)

Support 3 : $1.2375 (138.2% FIBO $1.2824-$1.2495)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,548 -20 -1.30%

Oil 90.76 -0.10 -0.10%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,657.08 +63.93 +0.74%

S&P/ASX 200 4,114.4 +46.37 +1.14%

Shanghai Composite 2,390.68 +29.31 +1.24%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2486 -0,43%

GBP/USD $1,5634 -0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9616 +0,35%

USD/JPY Y79,52 +0,06%

EUR/JPY Y99,30 -0,35%

GBP/JPY Y124,33 -0,19%

AUD/USD $0,9834 -0,18%

NZD/USD $0,7615 0,00%

USD/CAD C$1,0229 -0,09%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) April +0.9% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y April +1.8%

04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator May 0.40 0.44

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y April +3.2% +3.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln April 1.4 1.2

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals April 49.9 50.1

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator May -0.52 -0.67

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence May -9.0 -10.2

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index April -1.6% +2.1%

12:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m April +0.2% +0.1%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) April +4.1% 0.0%

15:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence May -31 -32

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) April +1.3% +0.6%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (preliminary) April +14.2% +13.7%