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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 29-05-2012
European stocks advanced for the third time in four days as data showing the U.S. housing market is stabilizing outweighed a report that China has no intention of introducing large-scale stimulus.
Home values in 20 U.S. cities fell in the 12 months ended March at the slowest pace in more than a year. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values fell 2.6 percent from a year earlier after a 3.5 percent drop in February.
China has no intention of starting a large-scale economic stimulus program like it did during the global financial crisis, the official Xinhua News Agency said today.
National benchmark indexes rose in all of the 18 western European markets today, except Spain and Portugal. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX gained 1.2 percent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.4 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 slid 2.3 percent to the lowest level in nine years.
CGGVeritas added 5.7 percent to 19.65 euros as UBS upgraded the shares to buy from neutral. That was the biggest jump this year.
Spanish lender Bankia sank 16 percent to 1.14 euros after dropping 13 percent yesterday. Banco Popular Espanol SA fell 3.3 percent to 1.66 euros, a fourth day of losses. Banco de Sabadell SA dropped 4.3 percent to 1.34 euros and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA declined 2.6 percent to 4.64 euros.
Repsol sank 7.2 percent to 12.83 euros, the biggest drop since November 2008. The oil company said it will cut its dividend payout ratio to increase production outside Argentina after its YPF SA unit was seized.
Wolseley Plc retreated 1 percent to 2,277 pence as the world’s largest supplier of heating and plumbing products reported a decline in third-quarter revenue.
The euro fell to the lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar as investor concern about Spain’s ability to recapitalize troubled banks increased, boosting bets the union’s debt crisis is worsening.
The 17-nation currency dropped below $1.25 for the second time this month after Egan-Jones Ratings Co. reduced its credit rating for Spain to B from Bb-. The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as Spanish officials debated how to fund a recapitalization of the Bankia group.
The yen gained against the majority of its most-traded peers amid increased demand for haven assets.
The pound approached a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro amid the monetary union turmoil. It strengthened as much as 0.2 percent to 79.83 pence per euro after reaching 79.51 pence on May 16, the strongest level since November 2008. Sterling has appreciated 4.1 percent this year.
Euro broke through $ 1.2500 level, accelerating decline rates, and noting with a minimum value in June 2010 at around $ 1.2460.
The agency Egan-Jones today downgraded the sovereign debt rating of Spain from BB-to B forecast remains negative.
As the agency commented, "Spain will inevitably face the need to provide financial support to the national banking sector and the weakest provinces. Assets of the two largest banks in the country exceeds the size of its GDP. We downgrade our rating to" B "and we carefully monitor new requests for assistance from the banks. "
U.S. stocks rose, after the first weekly gain since April in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid data showing stabilization in the housing market and after Greek opinion polls eased concern the country will leave the euro.
Equities rose as the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 2.6 percent from a year earlier after a 3.5 percent drop in February. Greek opinion polls showed voters warming to parties supporting the European Union’s bailout agreement as political leaders at home and abroad warned of economic catastrophe should the single currency fragment.
Facebook lost 8.1 percent to $29.33. The company’s options trading began today. The stock fell below the prior low of $30.94 set on May 22. Facebook has slumped 23 percent from its initial public offering price of $38.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. tumbled 15 percent, the most on a closing basis since 2007, to $55.40. The company revised results reported three weeks ago from a study of two cystic fibrosis drugs, saying the combination showed less of a benefit.
Oil is cheaper on the background of continuing decline in consumer confidence in the American economy and the deepening debt crisis of the euro zone, affecting the consumption of oil.
Published on Tuesday, the data research firm Conference Board showed that consumer confidence in the U.S. economy in May fell to 64.9 points from the revised downwards in the figure for April 68.7 points. These differed from the expectations of analysts, who, in contrast, forecast growth rate to 69.5 points from 69.2 points unrevised month earlier.
Tensions between the West and Iran persists, as talks on Tehran's nuclear program last week, ended in nothing.
In Europe, investors continue to wonder whether there will be Greece in the euro area, and to monitor the state of the banking sector in Spain.
Crude for July delivery dropped to $90.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent oil for July settlement slipped 84 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $106.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold is rising against the backdrop of a moderately strong statistics on inflation in Germany in May and hopes to reduce the tensions in Greece.
German CPI rose is not as strong as expected in May (+1.9% y / y vs. 2.0% y / y and2.1% y / y in the previous period). A month rate fell by 0.2%. Category of food and clothing, and recreation and energy are the main drivers of such dynamics.
Positive impact on the markets have reported that the four Greek banks received a total of 18 billion euros in the second program of assistance to Greece EU and the IMF. Hellenic Foundation for financial stability (HFSF), which is responsible for the distribution of financial aid, transferred funds National Bank, Alpha, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank.
The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1583.5 per ounce.
Resistance 3:1370 (May 7 high)
Resistance 2:1363 (May 10-11 high)
Resistance 1:1348/50 (area of May 14-15 highs)
Current price: 1331,25
Support 1:1322 (support line from May 23)
Support 2:1314 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3:1294 (May 23 low)
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2625, $1.2630, $1.2650, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.30, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8000
AUD/USD $0.9860, $0.9865, $0.9875, $0.9900, $0.9950
USD/CAD C$1.0230
U.S. stock futures advanced before reports that may show consumer confidence is improving and the housing market is stabilizing.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,657.08 +63.93 +0.74%
Hang Seng 19,055.46 +254.47 +1.35%
Shanghai Composite 2,389.64 +28.27 +1.20%
FTSE 5,376.46 +20.12 +0.38%
CAC 3,066.58 +23.61 +0.78%
DAX 6,381.77 +58.58 +0.93%
Crdue oil $91.26 (+0.44%)
Gold $1577.60 (+0.55%)
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2640/55, $1.2625, $1.2600, $1.2580, $1.2540/50
Bids $1.2510/00, $1.2490/80, $1.2450
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5850, $1.5800, $1.5770, $1.5750, $1.5720/30
Bids $1.5650, $1.5610/00
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9985, $0.9960/65, $0.9950, $0.9920/25, $0.9900
Bids $0.9805/00, $0.9765/60, $0.9750, $0.9735/30, $0.9700
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10/15, Y80.00, Y79.85
Bids Y79.35/30, Y79.00, Y78.80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.00, Y100.80/85, Y100.45/50, Y100.20/25, Y100.00
Bids Y99.55/50, Y99.00, Y98.50, Y98.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8075/80, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8015/20
Bids stg0.7965/60, stg0.7950, stg0.7935/30, stg0.7900
Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 3 and 16 highs)
Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.80 (resistance line from Apr 2, May 25 high)
Current price: Y79.52
Support 1: Y79.40 (support line from May 18)
Support 2: Y79.20 (May 23 low)
Support 3: Y79.00 (May 18 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9600 (area of May 24-25 high, high of January and session high)
Current price: Chf0.9579
Support 1: Chf0.9560 (session low, МА (100) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9530 (area of May 24-28 lows)
Support 3: Chf0.9500 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 3 : $1.5840 (area of May 18-22 highs)
Resistance 2 : $1.5740 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1 : $1.5720 (area of May 28-29 high)
Current price: $1.5686
Support 1 : $1.5630 (area of May 24-25 lows)
Support 2 : $1.5600 (psychological level, low of March)
Support 3 : $1.5520 (support line from May’2010)
Resistance 3 : $1.2640 (МА (200) for Н1, resistance line from May 1)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620 (May 28 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2575 (session high)
Current price: $1.2529
Support 1 : $1.2500 (May 25 low)
Support 2 : $1.2400 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2300 (psychological level)
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2625, $1.2630, $1.2650, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.30, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8000
AUD/USD $0.9860, $0.9865, $0.9875, $0.9900, $0.9950
USD/CAD C$1.0230
Asian stocks rose amid speculation China will do more to boost growth in the world’s second-largest economy, tempering concern about Europe’s debt crisis.
Nikkei 225 8,657.08 +63.93 +0.74%
S&P/ASX 200 4,114.4 +46.37 +1.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,390.68 +29.31 +1.24%
Chinese automakers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Dongfeng Motor Group Co. rose at least 2.4 percent after BNP Paribas SA said they may benefit from government subsidies.
Komatsu Ltd., a Japanese construction machinery maker that gets 14 percent of sales from China, gained 3.2 percent.
Shui On Land Ltd. jumped 7 percent in Hong Kong after the developer controlled by billionaire Vincent Lo said it plans to spin off its Xintiandi entertainment complex unit.
01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m April -9.4% 6.9%
The euro was poised for the biggest monthly decline since September before a sale of Italian debt tomorrow and data this week forecast to confirm the prolonged fiscal crisis is hurting the region’s economy. Italy is scheduled to sell 3.5 billion euros ($4.4 billion) of five-year notes and 2.75 billion euros of 10-year debt tomorrow. The nation’s two-year yields jumped to a four-month high of 3.945 percent yesterday after the country sold zero- coupon debt
The 17-nation currency was 0.3 percent from the lowest since July 2010 after yield premiums on Spain’s securities over Germany’s rose to the most in 17 years. Spain is considering injecting debt issued by the government into the Bankia group, using a mechanism that would free it from raising the money from investors. The government will decide in two or three months whether to use its debt to recapitalize the nationalized lender, a spokesman for the Economy Ministry said in a phone interview yesterday.
“Europe has to dissipate any doubts about the euro,” Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said yesterday. It “must affirm that the euro is an irreversible project and act in consequence.”
The extra yield investors demand to hold Spain’s 10-year bonds instead of similar-maturity German notes soared to 5.12 percentage points yesterday, the most since 1995, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
The Dollar Index traded near the highest in 20 months as concern Europe’s turmoil is hurting economic growth boosted demand for the safest assets.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.2510.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5655.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, come nearer to a yesterday's low.
UK data at 1000GMT sees the CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades data. Early in the day, BOE Chief Economist is expected to make regional media appearances. US markets return Tuesday and data starts at 1300GMT with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Then at 1400GMT by Consumer Confidence and then at 1430GMT by the weekly Retail Trade Index and also the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Yesterday euro retreated from highs against the dollar amid weak trading in the absence of any publication statisticsi because bank holidays in Europe and the United States.
Earlier, investor optimism was associated with the news that, according to opinion polls, the majority of the population of Greece supports the center-right party "New Democracy", which stands for the continuation of the country's obligations to international lenders and observance of austerity measures. According to Greek analytical agency Kapa Research SA, for the party "New Democracy" may vote by 5.7% more voters than in the radical left SYRIZA block, which calls for the immediate rejection of the agreements with creditors. In addition, investors pleased with reports that the National Development and Reform Commission of China approved three major construction project, which is an implementation of government's intention to support the growth of Chinese economy.
The British pound traded cautiously against the dollar due to the fact that the inflation report, indicating a greater propensity for soft policies than expected, low inflation and low retail sales data suggest that the obstacles to further monetary easing in the UK may be lower than previously thought.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell, come nearer to the last week’s low.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair traded in a range $1.5670-$1.5710.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell, however was restored later.
UK data at 1000GMT sees the CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades data. Early in the day, BOE Chief Economist is expected to make regional media appearances. US markets return Tuesday and data starts at 1300GMT with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Then at 1400GMT by Consumer Confidence and then at 1430GMT by the weekly Retail Trade Index and also the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from a five-month low, as concern eased that Greece may exit the euro, outweighing a report that profit growth slowed at China’s industrial companies.
Nikkei 225 8,593.15 +12.76 +0.15%
S&P/ASX 200 4,068 +38.75 +0.96%
Shanghai Composite 2,354.65 +21.09 +0.90%
Nintendo Co., a Japanese maker of game consoles that depends on Europe for a third of its sales, climbed 2.6 percent in Osaka.
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a retailer that gets 79 percent of sales in the debt-stricken region, advanced 2.1 percent.
Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s biggest maker of microcontrollers for cars, sank 11 percent after a person briefed on the matter said it plans to raise 100 billion yen ($1.3 billion) and eliminate more than 10,000 jobs.
European stocks were little changed, following last week’s rally for the region’s equity benchmark, as a selloff in banks offset Greek opinion polls that eased concern the country will leave the euro.
Greece’s New Democracy, which supports the spending cuts and tax increases imposed by the European Union, came first in all six opinion polls published on May 26 as campaigning continued for the general election on June 17.
Party leader Antonis Samaras said Greece’s departure from the euro would cause incomes, bank deposits and property values to lose at least half their value within days, while food prices would rise by a quarter.
National benchmark indexes declined in 9 of the 12 western- European markets that opened today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped less than 0.1 percent, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3 percent and France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.2 percent.
Bankia, the lender that Spain nationalized this month, tumbled 13 percent to 1.37 euros after the group said it will seek state funds as it set aside provisions for residential mortgages and lending to companies.
The group took provisions of 5.5 billion euros for non-real estate lending after stress-testing the loans, Director General Jose Sevilla told reporters in Madrid on May 26. It also reclassified 300 million euros of lending, that it had booked as loans to small- and medium-sized companies, as lending to property developers, Chairman Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri said.
Banco Popular retreated 7 percent to 1.72 euros and Bankinter dropped 4.2 percent to 2.81 euros. A gauge of bank shares lost 1.1 percent, led by Spanish and Italian lenders.
Rio Tinto, the world’s third-biggest mining company, gained 2.2 percent to 2,855 pence, Antofagasta Plc increased 2 percent to 1,037 pence and BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest mining company, rose 0.7 percent to 1,716 pence.
Resistance 3: Y80.15 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: Y79.80 (May 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y79.65 (session high)
The current price: Y79.41
Support 1: Y79.20/30 (area of May 23-28 low)
Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18-21 low)
Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9740 (Feb 16 high of 2011)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9655 (Feb 9 high of 2011)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9610 (May 25 high)
The current price: Chf0.9587
Support 1: Chf0.9575 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9525/30 (area of May 24-28 lows)
Support 3: Chf0.9465 (May 23 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5850 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5775 (May 23 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5715/25 (area of May 24-28 highs)
The current price: $1.5672
Support 1 : $1.5655 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5625 (May 25 low)
Support 3 : $1.5600 (psychological level)
Resistance 3 : $1.2685 (May 23 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.2620/25 (area of May 24-28 highs)
Resistance 1 : $1.2550 (session high)
The current price: $1.2533
Support 1 : $1.2495 (May 25 low)
Support 2 : $1.2455 (111.8% FIBO $1.2824-$1.2495)
Support 3 : $1.2420 (123.6% FIBO $1.2824-$1.2495)
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,593.15 +12.76 +0.15%
S&P/ASX 200 4,068 +38.75 +0.96%
Shanghai Composite 2,354.65 +21.09 +0.90%
FTSE 100 5,356.34 +4.81 +0.09%CAC 40 3,042.97 -4.97 -0.16%
DAX Closed
Dow Closed
Nasdaq Closed
S&P 500 Closed
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2540 +0,20%
GBP/USD $1,5677 +0,08%
USD/CHF Chf0,9582 -0,13%
USD/JPY Y79,47 -0,25%
EUR/JPY Y99,65 -0,07%
GBP/JPY Y124,57 -0,18%
AUD/USD $0,9852 +0,96%
NZD/USD $0,7615 +1,04%
USD/CAD C$1,0238 -0,52%
01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m April -9.4%
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator April 1.22
10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance May -6 -7
12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) May +0.2% 0.0%
12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) May +2.1% +2.1%
13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y March -3.5% -2.7%
14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence May 69.2 69.6
22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m April +19.8% -10.0%
23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI May 50.7
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