Forex-novosti i prognoze od 24-05-2012

European stocks rebounded from the biggest drop in a month amid concern recent losses are overdone considering the outlook for company earnings.

Stocks rose today even as a report showed European services and manufacturing output contracted more than economists forecast in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries fell to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, London-based Markit Economics said. Economists had forecast a drop to 46.6, the median of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

German business confidence also declined more than forecast in May. The Munich-based Ifo institute said today its business- climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, slipped to 106.9 from 109.9 in April. Economists had forecast a reading of 109.4.

National benchmark indexes rose in all the western European markets today, except for Iceland and Greece. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rallied 1.6 percent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.5 percent and France’s CAC 40 gained 1.2 percent. The Greek ASE Index plunged 4.5 percent to the

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) rose 2.5 percent to 4.93 euros. Spain’s second-largest lender will take non-binding bids for five portfolios of homes, non-performing loans and consumer loans until May 29, two people with knowledge of the matter said. A spokesman for BBVA declined to comment or disclose the nominal value of the portfolios.

Cable & Wireless Communications jumped 18 percent to 33.01 pence, the biggest gain since 2003. The U.K. based mobile-phone network operator reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $901 million, beating analysts’ estimates of $884.5 million, and said it expects similar levels through 2012 and 2013.

The euro fluctuated against the dollar after touching the weakest level since July 2010 as German manufacturing data dropped and traders speculated measures may be taken to relieve the bloc’s debt crisis. A German index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry declined to 45 this month from 46.2 in April, Markit Economics said today.

The Swiss franc weakened to its lowest level in two months against the euro amid speculation the central bank may take action to discourage investment in the nation through taxing deposits.

Britain’s pound weakened against the dollar after a report showed U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than two years.

Sales including auto fuel declined 2.3% in April from the previous month, a report showed today. The median forecast of economists was for a 0.7% decline.

U.S. stocks fell, snapping a three- day rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, after three officials said China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit.

Concern about a Chinese slowdown added to expectations for a worsening in Europe’s debt crisis. In the U.S., data showed companies placed fewer orders for computers, machinery and other capital equipment in April for a second month, indicating manufacturing in the U.S. is cooling.

Technology, industrial and financial shares in the S&P 500 retreated. Bank of America (ВАС) dropped 1.3 percent to $7.08. Caterpillar (САТ) slid 1.3 percent to $91.29.

Tiffany tumbled 7.8 percent to $57. Chief Executive Officer Michael Kowalski said sales in the Americas region “underperformed, continuing a soft trend that began in the last quarter of 2011.” Sales in the first quarter rose 3 percent to $386 million in the Americas and declined 4 percent in the New York flagship store.

NetApp Inc. plunged 14 percent to $28.20. The seller of hardware and software for storing data forecast first-quarter earnings trailing analysts’ estimates amid a weak economic outlook.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) jumped 3.1 percent to $21.74. Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman is cutting jobs and streamlining businesses as the company grapples with slower demand for printers, services and data-center equipment, leading to a third-quarter profit forecast that was less than analysts predicted. The 8 percent workforce reduction, taking place through firings and early retirement offers, will generate annual savings of as much as $3.5 billion starting in 2014.

Dow Chemical Co. rallied 2.6 percent to $31.32. The chemical maker said an arbitration panel ruled that Kuwait must pay $2.16 billion in damages after it canceled a 2008 agreement to buy a stake in the company’s plastics business.

Oil rebounded from a seven-month low as world powers and Iran struggled to overcome disagreements at their second round of meetings on the country’s nuclear program.

Prices climbed as much as 1.8 percent after the meeting resulted in no binding pledges from Iran to ensure the nation’s nuclear work is peaceful. Chinese, French, German, Russian, U.K. and U.S. negotiators -- the so-called P5+1 group -- are pressuring Iran to immediately halt production of uranium enriched to 20 percent, according to diplomats at the talks.

Oil reduced gains earlier after data showed U.S. orders for computers, machinery and other capital equipment dropped in April for a second month, pointing to a slowdown in business investment.

Crude for July delivery gained to $91.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil for July settlement rose $1, or 0.9 percent, to $106.56 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold rises in price after three days of decline, although the depreciation of the euro to a two-year low against the dollar holding back price increases.

Resistance 3:1363 (May 10-11 high)

Resistance 2:1348/50 (area of May 14-15 high)

Resistance 1:1320 (area of resistance line from May 22)

Current price: 1315,75

Support 1:1300 (area of support line from May 21)

Support 2:1288 (area of May 18 and 21 lows)

Support 3:1280 (MA (200) for D1)

EUR/USD $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2625, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.40, Y79.50, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5750, $1.5840

EUR/GBP stg0.8050

AUD/USD $0.9750, $0.9800

Gold $1550

U.S. stock futures rose as a rally in Hewlett-Packard Co. overshadowed a report that showed orders for business equipment dropped for a second month.

Hewlett-Packard climbed more than 8% as the personal-computer maker announced plans to slice its workforce by 27,000 and reported quarterly sales and profit that topped estimates.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,563.38 +6.78 +0.08%

Hang Seng 18,666.4 -119.79 -0.64%

Shanghai Composite 2,350.97 -12.46 -0.53%

FTSE  5,346.13 +79.72 +1.51%

CAC  3,042.41 +39.14 +1.30%

DAX 6,334.89 +49.14 +0.78%

Crude oil $91.14 (+1.38%)

Gold $1571.70 (+1.50%)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)’ FQ2 EPS of $0.98 vs cons $0.07. Revenue of $30.69B (-3% Y/Y) vs cons $29.91B. Expects FQ3 EPS of $0.94-$0.97, below $1.02 consensus. Expects FY12 EPS of $4.05-$4.10, above $4.03 consensus. Shares +8.54% premarket

Data:

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance April 1.69 1.95 1.33

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter I -0.2% +0.5% +0.5%

06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (finally) Quarter I +1.5% +1.7% +1.2%

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 46.9 47.1 44.4

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) May 45.2 45.8 45.2

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 46.2 47.1 45.0

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) March 52.2 51.9 52.2

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 109.9 109.5 106.9

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 117.5 117.1 113.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 102.7 102.0 100.9

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 45.9 46.1 45.0

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) May 46.9 47.0 46.5

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (revised) Quarter I -0.3% -0.2% -0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter I +0.5% 0.0% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals April 31.9 32.3 32.4

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter I -3.3% +3.3% +3.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter I +1.6% +9.2% +14.2%

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9920/25, $0.9895/00, $0.9865/70, $0.9840/50, $0.9825/30, $0.9800 

Bids $0.9755/50, $0.9715/10, $0.9690/85, $0.9665/60, $0.9650

USD/JPY

Offers Y80.35/40, Y80.10/15, Y80.00, Y79.75/80, Y79.60/65

Bids Y79.25/20, Y78.80,  Y78.60/50

Resistance 3: Y80.10/15 (resistance line from Apr 2, May 22 high)
Resistance 2: Y79.70 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 1: Y79.60 (session high)
Current price: Y79.39
Support 1: Y79.20 (May 23 low)
Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18 low)
Support 3: Y78.55 (МА (200) for D1)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (high of 2011)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9700 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9600 (area of session high and high of January)

Current price: Chf0.9549

Support 1: Chf0.9530 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9460 (МА (100) for Н1 and May 22 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9430 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 3 : $1.5860 (area МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 2 : $1.5840 (area of May 18-22 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5770 (МА (100) for Н1)

Current price: $1.5689

Support 1 : $1.5640 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5600 (psychological level, low of March)

Support 3 : $1.5520 (support line from May’2010)

Resistance 3 : $1.2730 (МА (200) for Н1, May 21 low)
Resistance 2 : $1.2690 (May 22 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.2600 (session high)
Current price: $1.2576
Support 1 : $1.2510/00 (area of session low)
Support 2 : $1.2400 (psychological level)
Support 3 : $1.2300 (psychological level)

EUR/USD $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2625, $1.2700

USD/JPY Y79.40, Y79.50, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5750, $1.5840

EUR/GBP stg0.8050

AUD/USD $0.9750, $0.9800

Gold $1550

Asian stocks fell as a survey showed China’s manufacturing may shrink for a seventh month and European leaders meeting in Brussels clashed over how to fight the region’s debt crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,563.38 +6.78 +0.08%

S&P/ASX 200 4,055.8 -11.23 -0.28%

Shanghai Composite 2,351.16 -12.27 -0.52%

Nintendo Co., a maker of video-game players that depends on Europe for a third of its sales, fell 4 percent in Tokyo.

Citic Pacific Ltd., a Hong Kong-based steelmaker with operations in iron-ore mining and property development in China, slid 2.1 percent on concern China needs to do more to support growth.

Hanwha Corp., a trader of petrochemicals and machinery, rose 4 percent in Seoul after its construction unit won an $8 billion deal to build housing units in Iraq.

02:00 New Zealand Annual Budget Release -

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 49.3 48.7

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report May

The euro was 0.2 percent from the lowest level since July 2010 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said following a European Union summit that her nation stands by its opposition to jointly issued common bonds. Merkel laid out the German position that “much stronger economic cooperation” in the region is needed before euro bonds can be issued, speaking to reporters in Brussels after the summit. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said leaders are not under any pressure to introduce euro bonds. The 17-nation currency maintained a drop versus the yen before data forecast to show Europe’s services and manufacturing industries shrank for a fourth month. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and service industries probably fell to 46.6 this month from 46.7 in April, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. London-based Markit Economics will release the figure today.

The Japanese and U.S. currencies remained higher after gaining yesterday against most major counterparts on increasing demand for haven assets amid Europe’s deepening debt crisis.

Demand for the so-called kiwi was limited after a report from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today showed a purchasing managers’ index for China’s manufacturing was at 48.7 in May, compared with a final figure of 49.3 last month. If confirmed on June 1, it would mark the seventh-straight month below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. China is New Zealand’s second-largest export destination.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair has decreased to a yesterday's low.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.5675-$1.5700.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in range Y79.40-Y79.55.

European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with the details of German Q1 GDP data, while at the same time, the German finance ministry releases its monthly fiscal and economic report. France sees sentiment data at 0645GMT, while this morning also sees the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for May, starting with France at 0658GMT, where forecasts are for readings close to unchanged with 47.0 for manufacturing and 45.7 for services. Germany releases at 0728GMT with expectations of mixed results, a slightly higher 47.0 for manufacturing and slightly lower 52.0 for services. At 0758GMT the EMU release is expected to see 45.9 for manufacturing, 46.5 for services and 46.6 for the composite number. The Germany Ifo data is due at 0800GMT and is broadly expected to slip slightly lower with the business climate  index at 109.2, the current assessment at 117.0 and the expectations index at 101.8. UK data at 0830GMT includes Services Output data and also the second  stimate of Q1 GDP data along with Q1 Business Investment. US data starts at 1200GMT with Building Permits data and is followed at 1230GMT by weekly jobless claims and Durable Goods Orders. This is followed at 1258GMT by US flash PMI.

Yesterday the euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar since July 2010 on speculation a summit of European Union leaders will provide no new measures to stem the sovereign-debt crisis. The shared currency extended losses after dropping below 100 yen for the first time since February and weakening to less than $1.26, price levels where traders who follow technical analysis said sell orders were clustered. Financial turmoil in the euro bloc will come up at tonight’s meeting in Brussels only “at the very end,” European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said in a letter before a gathering of EU officials.

The yen climbed at least 0.7 percent versus all its major peers after the Bank of Japan left its asset-purchase fund unchanged. The yen snapped a two-day drop against the dollar after slipping earlier this week on bets the central bank would decide to boost stimulus at its policy meeting. The BOJ kept its asset-purchase fund at 40 trillion yen, after expanding it by 10 trillion yen last month. The central bank also left a credit-lending program at 30 trillion yen, it said in a statement in Tokyo. The policy board kept the key overnight lending rate between zero and 0.1 percent.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index snapping a two-day rally, as concerns mounted that Greece may exit the euro zone and the Bank of Japan refrained from deploying further monetary stimulus, dimming the outlook for exporters.

Nikkei 225 8,556.6 -172.69 -1.98%

Hang Seng 18,786.19 -252.96 -1.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,067.04 -53.97 -1.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,363.44 -9.87 -0.42%

Cosco Pacific Ltd., which operates container facilities at Greece’s Piraeus port, fell 4 percent in Hong Kong.

Mitsui & Co., a Japanese trading company, slid 1.6 percent after the nation’s trade data missed estimates.

Quanta Computer Inc. led computer makers lower in Taiwan, dropping 4.2 percent, after bellwether Dell Inc. forecast slower sales.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co. slumped 24 percent in Hong Kong on a report regulators are investigating the drugmaker for suspected financial fraud.

Resistance 3: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.15 (May 12 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.55 (session high)

The current price: Y79.47

Support 1: Y79.20 (May 23 low)

Support 2: Y79.00 (May 18-21 low)

Support 3: Y78.70 (Feb 15 high)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9640 (161.8% FIBO Chf0.9465-Chf0.9575)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9595 (Jan 9 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9575 (May 23 high)

The current price: Chf0.9550

Support 1: Chf0.9520/25 (high of the European session and low of the American session on May 23)

Support 2: Chf0.9465 (May 23 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9440 (May 21 high)

Resistance 3 : $1.5850 (May 22 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5775 (May 23 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (high of the American session on May 23)

The current price: $1.5678

Support 1 : $1.5675 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5635/45 (area of Mar 14-15 low)

Support 3 : $1.5600 (psychological level)

Resistance 3 : $1.2725 (May 21 low)

Resistance 2 : $1.2685 (May 23 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.2605/15 (low of the European session, high of the American session on May 23)

The current price: $1.2575

Support 1 : $1.2545 (May 23 low)

Support 2 : $1.2500 (psychological level)

Support 3 : $1.2455 (161.8% FIBO $1.2690-$1.2545)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,562 -15 -0.95%

Oil 90.56 -1.29 -1.40%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,556.6 -172.69 -1.98%

Hang Seng 18,786.19 -252.96 -1.33%

S&P/ASX 200 4,067.04 -53.97 -1.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,363.44 -9.87 -0.42%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2586 -0,74%

GBP/USD $1,5690 -0,47%

USD/CHF Chf0,9540 +0,72%

USD/JPY Y79,45 -0,65%

EUR/JPY Y100,00 -1,40%

GBP/JPY Y124,64 -1,12%

AUD/USD $0,9753 -0,41%

NZD/USD $0,7514 -0,37%

USD/CAD C$1,0244 +0,31%

02:00 New Zealand Annual Budget Release -

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 49.3

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report May

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance April 1.69 1.95

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter I -0.2% +0.5%

06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (finally) Quarter I +1.5% +1.7%

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 46.9 47.1

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) May 45.2 45.8

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 46.2 47.1

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) March 52.2 51.9

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 109.9 109.5

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 117.5 117.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 102.7 102.0

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) May 45.9 46.1

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) May 46.9 47.0

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q  I -0.3% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (revised) Quarter I +0.5% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals April 31.9 32.3

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter I -3.3% +3.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter I +1.6% +9.2%

11:15 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks -

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 370 374

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders April -4.2% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation April -1.1% +1.2%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense April -0.8% -+0.5%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate May -10.7 -9.6

13:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

14:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak -

19:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks -

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y April +0.5% +0.4%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y April +0.2% +0.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y May -0.3% -0.3%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y May -1.0% -1.0%