Forex-novosti i prognoze od 22-06-2012

The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar after European Central Bank lowered margin requirements for banks. At the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the direct funding of banks violate the terms of the contract for the region.

Also on the depreciation of the euro affected the business climate index data in Germany. As it became known that the business sentiment in Germany decreased for the second consecutive month. In June the figure had fallen to its lowest level over the past two years, due to the fact that Europe's largest economy is experiencing the consequences of the debt crisis of the euro zone.

The data of this indicator was added the fear that the German economy is losing stamina and, perhaps, will reduce the level of GDP in the second quarter. Other data also point to a recession. Industrial activity is on the low level for the past three years.

The yen fell as the Japanese Lower House lawmakers prepared to vote for a bill that increases the sales tax by half.

The Canadian dollar rose after official data showed that the rate of inflation in Canada in May showed the slowest pace since June 2010, which was caused by the reduction of energy consumption and maintenance of the central bank of low-level production and rising prices.

U.S. stocks rose, after yesterday’s selloff, as the downgrade of global banks by Moody’s Investors Service was followed by rallies in financial shares while the European Central Bank announced changes to its lending program.

Morgan Stanley (MS) advanced 1.1 percent after the ratings firm cut the bank by two levels rather than a threatened three grades. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C), which were lowered to within two levels of junk, rose at least 0.4 percent. Facebook Inc. (FB) rallied 3 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. recommended buying the biggest social-networking company.

None of the financial firms was cut more than Moody’s had forecast. Morgan Stanley’s long-term senior unsecured debt rating was reduced two grades to Baa1. The downgrades left Citigroup and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America as the lowest-rated banks among the 15 at Baa2.

The prospect of downgrades had weighed on banks since Moody’s said Feb. 15 it was reviewing 17 banks with capital- markets operations because of fragile confidence and tighter regulations that pinched revenue. Pressure mounted as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis intensified.

As part of the index DOW almost all companies show a positive trend. The leaders of the growth of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, +1,85%) and Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK, +1.75%) losing more than just Walt Disney Co (DIS), whose shares fell by 0.84%.

Branches in the context of the S & P 500 in all sectors, except for one in the "green" zone. Best of all look the health sector (0.7%) and technology (+0.6%). Reducing shows only sector conglomerate (-0.1%)

Oil futures sank to their lowest level in eight months Wednesday after the government said oil inventories rose to their highest level since 1990, while gasoline demand in the U.S. fell sharply.

Crude also was weighed down by the Federal Reserve's decision to extend "Operation Twist" while stopping short of more aggressive measures.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said commercial oil inventories last week rose 2.9 million barrels to 387.3 million barrels, the highest level since July 1990, reversing two weeks of falling stockpiles, amid sinking demand in the world's biggest consumer.

U.S. oil inventories have been elevated for months due to a combination of a weak economic recovery and rising production. Earlier this month U.S. oil production had risen to the highest level in 14 years.

Inventories of refined products also rose last week. Gasoline inventories last week rose 900,000 barrels. Stocks of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, increased 1.2 million barrels, while refiners cut runs by 0.1 percentage point to 91.9% of capacity. Analysts expected oil inventories last week to fall 1 million barrels, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires. Gasoline stocks were expected to rise 400,000

Crude futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to $79.48

Brent oil for August settlement increase $1.47 to $90.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold prices steadied near $1,565 an ounce on Friday as the European Central Bank's decision to ease collateral requirements lifted the euro, but gold remained on track for its biggest weekly loss this year after U.S. stimulus measures disappointed.

The metal posted its steepest one-day drop since February 29 on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve held off on a new round of quantitative easing, or printing money to buy bonds, to boost growth in the United States.

Talk that more stimulus measures were on the way, which would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom and weighing on the dollar, had buoyed the metal earlier this month.

It has since erased the bulk of its gains both for June and for the year as a whole.

Gold found support as the euro hit session highs versus the dollar, with market participants citing a combination of short-covering and news on the ECB easing collateral requirements, in a move designed to ease pressure on Spain.

The June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1572.0 dollars per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1355 (61,8% FIBO 1412-1265, Jun 19-20 highs)

Resistance of 2:1340 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance of 1:1330 (MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: 1323.50

Support 1:1317 (session low, Jun 21 low)

Support 2:1298 (Jun 8 and 12 lows)

Support 3:1265 (low of June)

EUR/USD $1.2490, $1.2500, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y80.25, Y79.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8160

AUD/USD $0.9950

U.S. stock futures rose on Friday's premarket, bounce back from the prior session's drop, even as the mood darkened in Europe after Moody's Investors Service slashed the credit ratings of several banks.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,798.35 -25.72 -0.29%

Hang Seng 18,995.13 -269.94 -1.40%

Shanghai Composite 2,260.88 -32.00 -1.40%

FTSE 5,518.09 -48.27 -0.87%

CAC 3,093.04 -21.18 -0.68%

DAX 6,286.93 -56.20 -0.89%

Crude oil $78.14 (-0.08%)

Data:

07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter III

07:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin Quarter II

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 106.9 106.2 105.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 113.3 112.0 113.9

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 100.9 99.8 97.3

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/700, $1.2650, $1.2600/10, $1.2570/80
Bids $1.2520/00, $1.2480, $1.2450

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0200, $1.0150, $1.0125/30, $1.0100
Bids $1.0000, $0.9970/65, $0.9950, $0.9900

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5695/700, $1.5640/60
Bids $1.5580, $1.5560/50, $1.5525/20, $1.5500, $1.5480/70

USD/JPY
Offers Y81.50, Y81.00, Y80.80
Bids Y80.10, Y79.70

EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.35/40
Bids Y100.50, Y100.40, Y100.10, Y100.00

Resistance 3: Y81.70/80 (Apr 20 high, 61,8%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 2: Y81.00 (50.0%% FIBO Y84 ,20-Y77, 60)

Resistance 1: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, high of May)

Current price: Y80.26

Support 1: Y80.00 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.40/30 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9780 (highs of 2011-2012)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9650 (Jun 12 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9590 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9569
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (MA (200) for H1)
Support 2: Chf0.9510 (MA (100) for H1)
Support 3: Chf0.9420/10 (Jun 18 low, 50,0% FIBO Chf0 ,9040-Chf0, 9780)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (Jun 21 high, 50.0% FIBO $ 1,6290 - $ 1,5260)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5680 (MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5630 (session high)
Current Price: $ 1.5603
Support 1: $ 1.5570 (Jun 21 low)
Support 2: $ 1.5470 (Jun 14-15 lows)
Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2740/50 (Jun 18 and 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2630 (MA (100) for H1)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2600 (MA (200) for H1)
Current price: $ 1.2557
Support 1: $ 1.2520 (session low)
Support 2: $ 1.2440 (Jun 12 low)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (Jun 5 low)

EUR/USD $1.2490, $1.2500, $1.2600

USD/JPY Y80.25, Y79.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8160

AUD/USD $0.9950

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for a one-week low, as raw-material suppliers dropped after commodities entered a bear market and reports on U.S. home sales and manufacturing missed estimates.

Nikkei 225 8,798.35 -25.72 -0.29%

Hang Seng 18,982.63 -282.44 -1.47%

S&P/ASX 200 4,048.2 -39.37 -0.96%

Shanghai Composite 2,260.88 -32.00 -1.40%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 2.1 percent in Sydney.

Samsung Electronics Co., the largest mobile-phone maker by sales, fell 3.7 percent in Seoul.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s No. 1 lender, lost 1.1 percent in Tokyo after 15 global banks were downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service.

00:00 China Bank holiday

The dollar headed for a weekly gain against most of its major peers as shares fell before data today forecast to show German business confidence declined this month, boosting demand for safer assets. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, will drop to 105.6 from 106.9 in May, according to the median economist estimate compiled by Bloomberg News. That would be the lowest reading since March 2010. Ifo releases the report at 10 a.m. in Munich today. Data yesterday showed euro-area manufacturing shrank at the fastest pace in three years, and a Chinese output gauge indicated contraction. More Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank and sales of existing homes fell, separate reports indicated.

The greenback maintained its biggest advance in six months versus the euro as Asian stocks extended a worldwide slump following reports that signaled Europe’s debt crisis is weighing on economic growth.

Demand for the 17-nation euro was limited after Moody’s Investors Service lowered credit ratings on 15 global banks. Among bank downgrades by Moody’s yesterday, Credit Suisse Group AG’s credit rating was reduced by three levels and Morgan Stanley’s by two steps. The rating changes reflect the lenders’ “significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital-markets activities,” Moody’s Global Banking Managing Director Greg Bauer said in a statement.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy are set to gather in Rome today. The meeting is to help prepare for a June 28-29 European Union summit in Brussels at which leaders will discuss the path to further financial integration, including proposals for closer banking cooperation.

Yesterday the euro fell against the dollar after it was reported that Moody's may downgrade ratings of the largest banks in the world, including the British establishment. Most likely, the announcement will be made after the close of Wall Street. This course will be placed in a large scale to reduce the credit ratings of the leading institutions in the world. The agency has done so for some banks in European countries, including Spain and Italy. All this may increase the cost of debt capital and forcing banks to increase the amount of collateral for loans.

The pressure on the euro also had a weak data on indices of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, which was below forecasts.

The yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly a month. The pressure on the Japanese currency had reports of increasing pressure lawmakers in the ruling party in Japan at the Bank of Japan to take additional measures to stimulate the economy.

Contribute to the strengthening of the dollar results of the meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market, which were announced last night. Recall that the results of the two day meeting of the Fed rate on funds not changed. At the same time has increased the volume of the program Operational Twist on the $ 267 billion to $ 667 billion at the same time duration of the program extended to the end of 2012. It was also noted that if necessary, additional measures are taken. Since it was not reported anything new about the next round of quantitative easing, to which many had hoped, the demand for the dollar rose.

Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from a one-month high, as a survey showed China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month and after the Federal Reserve cut its U.S. growth estimate and expanded its Operation Twist program.

Nikkei 225 8,824.07 +71.76 +0.82%

S&P/ASX 200 4,087.6 -44.84 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,264.7 -28.18 -1.23%

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 mobile-phone maker by sales that counts China and the U.S. as its biggest markets, dropped 2 percent in Seoul.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company and Australia’s No. 1 oil producer, declined 1.2 percent in Sydney as crude and copper futures fell.

Renesas Electronics Corp. gained 3.1 percent in Tokyo on a report that KKR & Co. and Silver Lake are in talks to invest in the chipmaker.

Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.85 (Apr 24 low)

Resistance 1: Y80.55 (May 16 high)

Current price: Y80.42

Support 1: Y80.00 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.70 (Jun 20 high)

Support 3: Y79.40 (Jun 21 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9650/55 (area of Jun 8-12 highs)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9600 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9580 (Jun 21 high)

Current price: Chf0.9566

Support 1: Chf0.9555 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9500 (Jun 20 high)

Support 3: Chf0.9420/25 (area of the Jun 18-21 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (Jun 21 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5655 (Jun 20 low)

Current Price: $ 1.5615

Support 1: $ 1.5575 (Jun 21 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5510 (low of the U.S. session on Jun 15)

Support 3: $ 1.5470/75 (area of Jun 14-15 lows)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2745/50 (area of Jun ​​18-20 highs)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2635 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2565 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.2555

Support 1: $ 1.2530 (Jun 21 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2500 (psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.2435/45 (area Jun 8-12 lows)

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,567 -49 -3.00%

Oil 78.42 -3.03 -3.72%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,824.07 +71.76 +0.82%

S&P/ASX 200 4,087.6 -44.84 -1.09%

Shanghai Composite 2,264.7 -28.18 -1.23%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2547 -1,20%

GBP/USD $1,5595 -0,72%

USD/CHF Chf0,9570 +1,19%

USD/JPY Y80,21 +2,17%

EUR/JPY Y100,65 -0,25%

GBP/JPY Y125,09 +0,22%

AUD/USD $1,0052 -1,31%

NZD/USD $0,7875 -1,04%

USD/CAD C$1,0282 +0,92

00:00 China Bank holiday -

02:00 China Leading Index May 0.8%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter III

07:00 Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin Quarter II

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 106.9 106.2

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 113.3 112.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 100.9 99.8

08:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m May +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y May +2.0% +1.5%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m May +0.4% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y May +2.1% +1.9%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate June -11.2 -11.8