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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-07-2012
The yen weakened most of its major counterparts as investors sought higher-yielding assets amid speculation central banks will step up efforts to spur growth, reducing demand for havens.
The euro rose after the head of the IMF's Christine Lagarde called on the U.S. to an additional stimulus to prevent economic slowdown, as evidenced by the drop in ISM index in the manufacturing sector to around 49.7 in June. It should be noted that Lagarde addressed to politicians, not the Fed. In addition, she stated that the dollar is overvalued, which causes the upward movement of the EUR / USD charts. Players expect the ECB meeting to be held on July 5. The European Central Bank will cut its key interest rate to a record low. The ECB and BOE will announce policy decisions on July 5. ECB officials will lower their main interest rate by a quarter- percentage point to 0.75 percent on July 5, economists survey forecast.
The Canadian dollar advanced against most of its major counterparts as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, rose to the strongest level against the U.S. currency since May 17. It climbed as much as 0.5 percent to C$1.0121. Crude for August delivery rose to as high as $88.04 a barrel in New York, the highest since May 31.
Australia’s dollar touched a two-month high today versus the greenback as data showed the nation’s home building approvals surged in May, adding to signs that the economy is gaining momentum. It pared gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and said a subdued international outlook meant the stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.
The pound weakened against a majority of its most-traded peers after an index showed U.K. construction contracted in June. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will raise its target for bond purchases by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 375 billion pounds on July 5.
European stocks climbed, posting their biggest three-day rally this year, amid optimism central banks will add to stimulus measures and as a report showed that U.S. factory orders rebounded in May.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest-rate decisions on July 5. ECB officials will lower their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.75 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 62 economists. Five predicted a cut of 50 basis points and 11 foresaw no change.
The People’s Bank of China may cut lenders’ reserve requirements to increase liquidity in the banking system, according to a commentary on the front page of today’s China Securities Journal, which is published by the official Xinhua News Agency. The central bank announced a cut to interest rates on June 7, a day after the newspaper published a commentary urging the move.
National benchmark indexes gained in every western-European market. France’s CAC 40 advanced 1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 0.8 percent. Germany’s DAX rose 1.3 percent.
Peugeot climbed 3.7 percent to 7.72 euros as Europe’s second-biggest carmaker plans to eliminate as much as 10 percent of its French workforce to reduce operational costs, a union official said. Peugeot may discuss its plans for the reorganization at its next works council meeting on July 12.
Swiss Re Ltd. rose 1.7 percent to 61.10 Swiss francs after BlackRock Inc. said it will buy Private Equity Partners AG from the world’s second-biggest reinsurer and integrate the business with its own fund-of-funds division.
Oil surged on speculation that central banks from Europe to China will ease monetary policy to spur growth while sanctions against Iran curb supply.
Prices gained as much as 5.1 percent as the European Central Bank is forecast to cut interest rates this week. A state-owned newspaper in China said the time is right to increase liquidity in the banking sector. Iran fired several missiles during a three-day military exercise as the country threatened to block tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce interest-rate decisions on July 5. ECB officials will lower their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a record low 0.75 percent, according economists surveyed.
A European Union embargo on Iranian oil took full effect on July 1 after exemptions on some contracts and insurance ended. Iran’s crude exports may drop to about 1 million barrels a day, Goldman Sachs said in a report yesterday. The country pumped 3.16 million barrels a day in June, the second biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia, according to estimates.
Iran’s parliament is working on a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers linked to countries applying new EU sanctions, a lawmaker from the national security committee told Jam-e-Jam newspaper yesterday. The waterway is a transit route for a fifth of the world’s crude.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps “successfully” fired several missiles, including long-range ones, in a military exercise that began yesterday, the official Islamic Republic News Agency said in a report published today.
Oil for August delivery climbed to $88.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are 12 percent lower this year.
Brent for August settlement traded above $100 a barrel for the first time since June 11. The futures gained $3.32, or 3.4 percent, to $100.66 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde urged the U.S. to an additional stimulus to prevent economic slowdown, as evidenced by the drop in ISM index in the manufacturing sector to around 49.7 in June. It should be noted that Lagarde addressed to politicians, not the Fed. In addition, she stated that the dollar is overvalued, which causes the upward movement of the EUR / USD charts.
Resistance 3: 1660 (MA (200) for D1)
The resistance of 2:1640 (high of June, MA (100) for D1)
The resistance of 1:1620 (resistance line from Jun 6)
Current Price: 1619.70
Support 1:1607 (earlier resistance, Jun 29 high)
Support 2:1595 (session low)
Support 3: 1587 (Jul 2 low)
Gold prices rise as the market expects that after a series of weak economic data statistics of the world's leading central banks resort to further ease policy.
Index of ISM, which reflects activity in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy in June fell to 49.7 points from 53.5 points in May, with projections of 52 points.
Activity in the euro zone manufacturing sector is also declining, and unemployment rose in May.
Many analysts expect the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.75 percent per annum. Also, the market expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce the third phase of "quantitative easing" at a meeting July 31 - August 1.
Low interest rates are usually favorable for gold, not bearing interest, since the reduced opportunity cost of investing in precious metals as compared to financial instruments.
August gold futures on the COMEX today, went up to 1620.7 dollars per ounce.
Resistance 3: 95,00 (61.8% FIBO $ 106 - $ 77)
Resistance 2:91,60 / 90 (50.0% FIBO $ 106 - $ 77, May 29 high)
Resistance 1:88,20 (38.2% FIBO $ 106 - $ 77)
Current Price: 87.17
Support 1:85,10 (earlier resistance, Jun 29 high)
Support 2:82,00 (Jul 2 low)
Support 3:77,50 (low of June)
Resistance of 3:1420 (high of 2012)
Resistance of 2:1410 (high of May)
Resistance of 1:1370 (May 7 high)
Current Price: 1363.00
Support 1:1350 (Jul 2 low)
Support 2:1337 (MA (55) for D1)
Support 3:1327 (MA (20) for D1)
U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors awaited a report on factory orders.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) fell after taking a $6.2 billion writedown on its Internet- advertising company, AQuantive Inc.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,066.59 +63.11 +0.70%
Hang Seng 19,735.53 +294.07 +1.51%
Shanghai Composite 2,229.19 +3.08 +0.14%
FTSE 5,658.71 +18.07 +0.32%
CAC 3,249.66 +9.46 +0.29%
DAX 6,544.48 +48.40 +0.75%
Crude oil $86.17 (+3,09%)
Gold 1.18% $1616.50
Trading activity is expected to be very light today. The stock markets close at 17:00 GMT ahead of the holiday tomorrow.
Data:
01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI June 55.2 56.7
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m May -8.7% +5.1% +27.3%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y May -24.1% -15.2% +9.3%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY May +0.8% +0.6% -0.8%
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction June 54.4 53.1 48.2
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals May 51.8 51.0 51.1
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln May 1.4 1.1 0.6
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM May 0.0% -0.2% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) May +2.6% +2.5% +2.3%
In early European session, the euro traded in a range, as market participants prepared for celebrating Independence Day in the USA. In connection with this sale of major currencies is sluggish. It is possible that a small move comes after the publication of data on production orders in the U.S.. According to forecasts by economists, this indicator in May, is likely to grow by 0.1% after falling 0.6% the previous month. The Australian dollar reached a two-month high after the publication of positive reports about the number of building permits. After that the pair was trading close to the values achieved. The yen fell against most currencies against the background of active trading in the stock markets in Asia and Europe and on expectations that central banks around the world will take new measures to support the economy. Investors' attention is also shifted to the central bank meeting scheduled later this week.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in a range 1,2575-1,2613.
GBP / USD: steam rose to the level of 1.5715, but then began to decline, refreshing session low
USD / JPY: pair showed a significant increase and is now trading in the highs
At 13:00 GMT the U.S. there are data on production orders for May.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2690/00, $1.2665/70, $1.2650, $1.2625/30
Bids $1.2560/50, $1.2540, $1.2500, $1.2480
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0320/30, $1.0300
Bids $1.0240/30, $1.0200, $1.0170/60, $1.0150, $1.0100
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5800, $1.5750, $1.5735, $1.5720
Bids $1.5660, $1.5650/40, $1.5610/00, $1.5580/70
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.00, Y100.85/90
Bids Y100.35/30, Y100.00, Y99.70, Y99.50, Y99.25/20
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.25, Y80.00, Y79.90
Bids Y79.30, Y79.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080/90, stg0.8050
Bids stg0.8000, stg0.7965/60
Resistance 3: Y80.90 (50.0% FIBO Y84,20-Y77,60)
Resistance 2: Y80.55 (MA (100) for D1, May and June high)
Resistance 1: Y80.00 (June 29 high)
Current price: Y79.82
Support 1: Y79.30 (July 2 low)
Support 2: Y79.15 (June 29 low)
Support 3: Y78.80 (June 20 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (June 4-5 and 28 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9595 (61.8% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, June 28 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9570 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1, 50% FIBO $ 0,9465 - $ 0,9680, intraday high on Jun 29)
Current price: Chf0.9549
Support 1: Chf0.9460 (June 29 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9420 (low of June)
Support 3: Chf0.9370 (May 21 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5780 (high of June, 50,0% FIBO $ 1,6300 - $ 1,5270)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5730 (June 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5720 (Jule 2 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5679
Support 1: $ 1.5620/30 (38,2% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Support 2: $ 1.5575 (61.8% FIBO $ 1,5486 - $ 1,5716)
Support 3: $ 1.5480/70 (June 14-15 and 28 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2820 (May 21 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2740 (high of June)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2690 (Jun 29 high)
Current Price: $ 1.2586
Support 1: $ 1.2550 (MA (200) and MA (100) for H1, 50,0% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 2: $ 1.2520 (61,8% FIBO $ 1.2410-$ 1.2690)
Support 3: $ 1.2410 (June 28 low)
USD/JPY Y79.75, Y80.00, Y81.20
EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2415, $1.2575, $1.2585, $1.2600, $1.2645, $1.2650
GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5700
AUD/USD $.0000, $1.0120, $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250
EUR/GBP stg0.8025, stg0.8040
Asian stocks climbed for a fifth day, the longest rising streak on the regional benchmark index since March, on expectations that central banks from Washington to Frankfurt may ease monetary policy to spur economic growth.
Nikkei 225 9,066.59 +63.11 +0.70%
S&P/ASX 200 4,127.2 -5.80 -0.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,229.19 +3.08 +0.14%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, advanced 2.6 percent, leading gains among financial firms.
Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, climbed 1.4 percent in Tokyo. Tencent Holdings Ltd. led technology stocks higher in Hong Kong after Micron Technology Inc. agreed to buy Elpida Memory Inc. in the memory-chip industry’s largest consolidation in four years.
01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI June 55.2 56.7
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m May -8.7% +5.1% +27.3%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y May -24.1% -15.2% +9.3%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY May +0.8% +0.6% -0.8%
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
The yen fell against all its major peers as Asian stocks rose for a fifth day, with speculation central banks will take more action to spur growth reducing demand for haven assets.
The dollar also slid before U.S. factory and employment data that companies from Bank of New Zealand Ltd. to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. say may add to the case for stimulus from the Federal Reserve that debases the currency. U.S. factory orders probably rose 0.1 percent in May after a 0.6 percent drop the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department releases its data today.
European Central Bank officials are forecast to cut their main interest rate to a record on July 5.
Australia’s dollar reached a two- month high after data showed building approvals surged by a record in May and before the nation’s central bank releases its policy decision this afternoon. In Australia, the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments jumped a record 27.3 percent from April, when they declined a revised 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey was a 5 percent gain.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its cash-rate target at 3.5 percent at a policy meeting today, according to all 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
In China, the purchasing managers’ index of non- manufacturing rose to a three-month high of 56.7 in June from 55.2 in May, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing today.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair receded from yesterday's low.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair holds in range $1.5685-$1.5710.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose.
UK data at 0830GMT sees the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI as well as Bank of England Bankstats data with lending and money supply data. EMU data also sees PPI for May at 0900GMT, while at 1115GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico give a joint press conference after their meeting in Berlin.US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data, which is followed at 1255GMT by the weekly Redbook Average. Also in the US today, domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to rebound to 10.8 million annual rate in June after falling to 10.5 million in May.
Yesterday the dollar rose against the euro as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, indicating a mainstay of the nation’s economic expansion may be faltering and stoking investor demand for safety. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index contracted for the first time in almost three years.
The euro reversed its biggest gain versus the yen in more than 15 months as data showed unemployment in the 17 countries sharing the currency climbed to a record in May.
The euro slid against the dollar and yen as the jobless rate in the 17-nation currency bloc rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent in April, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. It was the highest since the data series started in 1995.
Asian stocks rose for a fourth day as better-than-estimated economic reports from China to Japan and steps by European leaders to address the sovereign-debt crisis eased concern global growth is slowing.
Nikkei 225 9,003.48 -3.30 -0.04%
S&P/ASX 200 4,133 +38.37 +0.94%
Shanghai Composite 2,226.11 +0.68 +0.03%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, climbed 1 percent after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing was stronger than expected.
TDK Corp., a Japanese manufacturer of electronic parts that gets almost 30 percent of its revenue from China, gained 2 percent.
Aristocrat Leisure Ltd., an Australian manufacturer of gaming machines, slumped 11 percent after reporting preliminary earnings for the first half of this year.
European stocks rose to the highest in eight weeks as investors bet central banks will add to measures unveiled by the region’s governments to contain the sovereign-debt crisis and data from China and Japan fueled optimism Asia will drive global growth.
In China, the government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.2 in June from 50.4 in May, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported yesterday. That beat the 49.9 median estimate in survey of 24 economists.
A separate PMI, compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Market Economics, posted a final reading of 48.2 in June compared with 48.4 in May, according to figures released today.
In Japan, large manufacturers became less pessimistic as declines in commodity prices aided profitability, boosting the outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy.
The quarterly Tankan index of sentiment was minus 1 in June from minus 4 in March, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo.
National benchmark indexes advanced in all of the 18 western European markets except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 climbed 1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 1.1 percent. Germany’s DAX increased 1.1 percent.
Invensys, which makes software that runs the London Underground trains, gained 1.7 percent to 226.5 pence. China South Locomotive is in the early stages of planning a possible 2 billion-pound ($3.14 billion) takeover bid for the company, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.
Aviva advanced 3.7 percent to 282.6 pence. John McFarlane is taking over the position of chairman from Colin M. Sharman, who is retiring, the company said.
Most U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an almost two-month high, as takeovers helped the market recover from earlier losses triggered by data showing a contraction in manufacturing.
About two stocks rose for each that fell on U.S. exchanges today. Earlier losses came as the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined to 49.7 in June, worse than the most-pessimistic forecast. Figures less than 50 signal contraction. Separate data showed euro-area manufacturing output contracted for an 11th straight month, while Chinese manufacturing indexes slipped to seven- month lows.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy dropped 0.5 percent, trimming a decline of as much as 1.5 percent. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rallied 1.5 percent to $36.28. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, retreated 1.5 percent to $83.68.
Micron Technology jumped 3.8 percent to $6.55. The company agreed to buy bankrupt Japanese chipmaker Elpida in a transaction valued at 200 billion yen ($2.5 billion), gaining memory chip-making assets that may help it avert price swings that fueled four straight quarters of losses.
Amylin Pharmaceuticals climbed 8.9 percent to $30.71. The agreement is the second announced this year for Bristol, and the largest for the industry. It comes after the blood-thinner Plavix, Bristol’s top seller in 2011 at $7.1 billion, faced generic competition for the first time in May.
Resistance 3: Y81.45 (Apr 27 high)
Resistance 2: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high)
Resistance 1: Y80.00 (Jul 2 high)
Current price: Y79.73
Support 1: Y79.30 (Jul 2 low)
Support 2: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)
Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9680 (Jun 28 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9590 (Jun 28 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9560/70 (area of Jul 2 high and the high of European session on Jun 29)
Current price: Chf0.9537
Support 1: Chf0.9480 (Jul 2 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9460 (Jun 29 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9420/25 (area of Jun 18-20 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.5850 (May 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5775 (Jun 20 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5720/30 (area of Jun 21 high and Jul 2 high)
Current Price: $ 1.5697
Support 1: $ 1.5640 (Jul 2 high )
Support 2: $ 1.5575 (low of the European session on Jun 29)
Support 3: $ 1.5470/85 (area of Jun 14 low and Jun 28 low)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2745 (Jun 20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2695 (Jun 29 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2665 (high of the European session on Jul 2)
Current Price: $ 1.2595
Support 1: $ 1.2550/65 (area of Jul 2 low and the low of European session on Jun 29)
Support 2: $ 1.2525 (Jun 28 high)
Support 3: $ 1.2405 (Jun 28 low)
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,598 0 -0.01%
Oil 83.69 -0.06 -0.07%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,003.48 -3.30 -0.04%
S&P/ASX 200 4,133 +38.37 +0.94%
Shanghai Composite 2,226.11 +0.68 +0.03%
FTSE 100 5,640.64 +69.49 +1.25%
CAC 40 3,240.2 +43.55 +1.36%
DAX 6,496.08 +79.80 +1.24%
Dow 12,871 -9 -0.07%
Nasdaq 2,951 +16 +0.55%
S&P 500 1,366 +3 +0.25%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2584 -0,64%
GBP/USD $1,5691 -0,08%
USD/CHF Chf0,9543 +0,61%
USD/JPY Y79,51 -0,35%
EUR/JPY Y100,60 -0,42%
GBP/JPY Y124,75 -0,42%
AUD/USD $1,0254 +0,16%
NZD/USD $0,8033 +0,27%
USD/CAD C$1,0164 0,00%
01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI June 55.2 56.7
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m May -8.7% +5.1% +27.3%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y May -24.1% -15.2% +9.3%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY May +0.8% +0.6% -0.8%
04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate - 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement -
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index June +0.5% -0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June -0.1% -0.8%
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction June 54.4 53.1
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals May 51.8 51.0
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln May 1.4 1.1
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM May 0.0% -0.2%
09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) May +2.6% +2.5%
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders May -0.6% +0.1%
23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y June +1.5%
23:30 Australia AIG Services Index June 43.5
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