Forex-novosti i prognoze od 11-07-2012

During the American session, the euro declined against the dollar on the eve of publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Committee on the Federal Open Market. After the announcement of the results of the dollar rose sharply, by updating the prospect that a two-year maximum. This news also contributed to other currencies. Pounds during the entire session is rapidly decreased, and after the publication of minutes of FOMC meetings close to the minimum values ​​of the previous day. Australian Dolar bargained kept during the session, but fell sharply in connection with the release of data from the Fed. The yen today fell sharply before the publication of the protocols, but almost no reaction to the published data and is now trading in the area reached maximum values.

• The protocols cover the meeting, passed on June 19-20

• Several members of the "in favor of the adoption of new measures, only if the recovery is stalled more

• The leaders still disagree on future Fed actions

• The tightening of fiscal policy in the United States could damage the prospects for growth

• Managers expect that the economic problems will weaken over time

• Most managers have seen some signs of slower economic growth

• Some leaders believe the recent weakness of the time

• Almost all managers expect inflation at 2% or lower in the medium term

Most European stocks fell before the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, as investors waited for clues about further measures to spur economic growth.

Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) tumbled to its lowest this year after quarterly sales growth missed projections. UniCredit SpA and BNP Paribas SA led bank shares higher. Getinge AB (GETIB) rose 3.9 percent after saying it expects “significant improvement” in second- half earnings growth.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped less than 0.1 percent to 255.59 at the close of trading. Two out of three shares on the gauge slid. The benchmark measure yesterday rose for the first time in a week as manufacturing in the U.K. and Italy unexpectedly rose.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,664.48 +0.41 +0.01% CAC 40 3,157.25 -18.16 -0.57% DAX 6,453.85 +15.52 +0.24%

Tod’s SpA (TOD), the Italian maker of pink alligator loafers, lost 4.8 percent to 72.15 euros. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC), the world’s biggest luxury-goods company, fell 3.2 percent to 116.65 euros. PPR (PP) SA, the French owner of Gucci, retreated 3.5 percent to 109.50 euros.

Britvic, the maker of Robinsons fruit drinks, plunged 13 percent to 260.1 pence, the biggest drop since March 2006, after saying full-year results will be “at the bottom end” of analysts’ estimates and a recall of its Fruit Shoot products will hurt earnings further.

SBM Offshore NV (SBMO) slid 6.6 percent to 10.47 euros. SBM’s jack-up rig in the Yme oilfield in the North Sea was evacuated after cracks were found in cement supporting the legs, Upstream reported late yesterday.

Mediaset SpA (MS) retreated 3.3 percent to 1.31 euros.

UniCredit climbed 2.3 percent to 2.79 euros. BNP Paribas advanced 1.5 percent to 29.94 euros.

Getinge, a Swedish sterilization-systems maker, rose 3.9 percent to 179.90 kronor. The company said the earnings outlook for 2012 remained favorable as there will be a significant improvement in profit growth in the second quarter.

Oil rose as the U.S. Energy Department reported that crude supplies dropped and refineries operated at the highest rate in almost five years. Futures climbed as much as 2.2 percent as inventories fell 4.7 million barrels to 378.2 million last week, more than three times the decline forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Refineries operated at 92.7 percent of capacity, the highest rate since July 2007. Stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel increased more than projected.

Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.75 million barrels to 207.7 million, more than five times the gain of 500,000 barrels projected in the Bloomberg survey.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 3.11 million barrels to 120.9 million. A 625,000-barrel increase was projected.

Futures also rose as more cars were sold in China. Passenger-vehicle sales exceeded analysts’ estimates for a fourth consecutive month after automakers increased shipments ahead of scheduled shutdowns for the summer. China is the world’s second-biggest crude-consuming country after the U.S.

Wholesale deliveries of passenger vehicles rose 16 percent to 1.28 million units last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in a statement today. That compares with the 1.27 million-unit average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Oil in New York has technical support along the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart, around $83.40 a barrel today.

The August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX rose $ 2.16, and is now $ 86.07 a barrel.

August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose 2.19% to $ 100.10 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold edged up on Wednesday, but retreated from the day's highs after the dollar pared some losses ahead of the release of U.S. central bank meeting minutes.

The dollar recovered from intraday lows to hold around its highest in nearly two years against the euro, which has taken little comfort this week from the slow progress of European leaders in solving the debt crisis.

Hopes for a quick ruling from Germany's Constitutional Court on whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and planned changes to the euro zone's budget rules were compatible with German law were dashed after it emerged the decision could take several weeks.

Traders will scour the statement for any sign of greater dovishness among the rate-setting committee members that could be interpreted as raising the chances for the Fed to use additional policy tools to boost growth.

The central bank has pledged to leave U.S. benchmark interest rates near zero until at least late 2014 and has already spent over $3 trillion in the last 3-1/2 years in direct purchases of government bonds to pin down borrowing rates. That has not dampened the speculation among investors that the Fed will embark on a fresh round of bond-buying to invigorate what has been a patchy economic recovery.

Low interest rates, particularly on the U.S. dollar, create a more favourable environment for investing in gold, as it can compete more effectively for investor cash when loose monetary policy cuts the yield on bonds and can undermine stock returns.

August gold futures on the COMEX today rose and now stands at $ 1581.0 USD per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1610 (Jul 6 low)

Resistance of 2:1600 (Jul 10 low)

Resistance of 1:1583 (session high)

Current Price: 1574.70

Support 1:1564 (session low)

Support 2: 1558 (resistance line from May 16)

Support 3: 1548 (low of June)

Resistance 3:91,70 (50,0% FIBO 106,10-77,20, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 2:88,70 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1:86,30 (Jul 10 high)

Current Price: 84.83

Support 1:83,40 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2:81,80 (Jul 2 low)

Support 3:77,20 (low of June)

Resistance of 3:1374 (Jul 5 high)
Resistance of 2:1356 (Jul 10 high)
Resistance of 1:1342 (session high)
Current Price: 1338.75
Support 1:1330 (MA (50) for D1, Jul 10 low, support line from Jun 4)
Support 2:1320 (50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)
Support 3:1307 / 02 (MA (200) for D1,  Jun 25-26 lows, 61,8% FIBO 1265-1375) 

The nearest resistance level of Y79.66 (MA (200) for H1)

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2475

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y80.85

GBP/USD $1.5300, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0200

U.S. stock futures are mixed as investors awaited minutes of last month’s Federal Reserve meeting for signs of further stimulus measures.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,851 -6.73 -0.08%
Hang Seng 19,419.87 +23.51 +0.12%
Shanghai Composite 2,175.38 +10.95 +0.51%
FTSE 5,645.21 -18.86 -0.33%
CAC 3,152.77 -22.64 -0.71%
DAX 6,434.4 -3.93 -0.06%
Crude oil: $85.15 (+1,48%)
Gold $1573.40 (0.51%)

At the moment the pair retreated and is trading at around Y79.20

Alcoa downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
DuPont downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
IBM initiated with a Neutral at UBS

Data

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) June -0.2% -0.1% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) June +2.3% +1.7% +2.0%

EUR/USD
Offers  $1.2380, $1.2350/60, $1.2330/35, $1.2310, $1.2290/300
Bids  $1.2235/25, $1.2220, $1.2200, $1.2170/75

EUR/GBP
Offers  stg0.8020/25, stg0.8010, stg0.8000/05, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7925/35
Ордера на покупку stg0.7880/70, stg0.7855/50, stg0.7810/00

USD/JPY
Offers  Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.90, Y79.75/80, Y79.50
Bids  Y79.20, Y79.00

EUR/JPY
Offers  Y98.50, Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.50
Bids  Y97.00, Y96.60/50

AUD/USD
Offers  $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0330/35, $1.0290/00
Bids  $1.0220, $1.0180/75, $1.0150

GBP/USD
Offers  $1.5620/25, $1.5600/10, $1.5580
Bids $1.5480/70, $1.5450, $1.5400

• -- Italy is fighting war against prejudice against it

  -- Italy has not given up sovreignty, control

  -- Italy playing important role in resolution of crisis

  -- Italy performing among best in terms of deficit

  -- Spread is not justified by economic fundamentals

  -- Has "no doubt" that benefits will be seen

Resistance 3: Y80.02 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.77 (Jul 9 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.66 (MA(200) for Н1)

Current price: Y79.23

Support 1: Y79.20 (area of session low and Jul 10 low)

Support 2: Y79.12 (Jun 28 low)

Support 3: Y78.78 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9910 (Dec 2010 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9815 (Jul 10 high)

Current price: Chf0.9776

Support 1: Chf0.9735 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9645 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9580 (Jul 5 low)

Germany alloted E4.153bln of the 10-year benchmark 1.75% July 2022

Bund issue at record low average yield 1.31% (1.52%), bid-to-cover ratio of 1.5 (1.4).

Resistance 3: $ 1.5690 (Jul 4 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5620 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5590 (MA (200) for H1)

Current Price: $ 1.5563

Support 1: $ 1.5520 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5470 (Jun 9 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2540 (Jul 5 high)

Most European stocks dropped amid concern that slowing global growth is pulling down company earnings.

Investors also await the decision of the court on the revitalization of the German relief fund for the euro area. Some players had hoped that the German Constitutional Court to quickly sort out, whether the German law, the mechanism of the European Stability and planned changes in the euro zone budget rules. However, according to Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, the court decision is not expected until the autumn, and the mechanism of the European stability can not be started without the consent of Germany.

Yield of 10-year Spanish bonds is close to the critical level of 7 percent, and Italian - to 6 percent.

The Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, from which the markets demand to save the economy, said that Italy might be interested in receiving assistance from the European Fund.

Little support for the German market had evidence that inflation in the country remained at 18-month low. So, in June, the annual CPI index growth in Germany remained unchanged 1.7%, which is the minimum value since December 2010, as shown by the Federal Office of Statistics, released today. The result of the indicator is more influenced by lower prices for electricity.

FTSE 100 5,642.73 -21.34 -0.38%        

CAC 40 3,159.16    -16.25 -0.51%        

DAX 6,444.65         +6.32 +0.10%

Burberry Group, the U.K.’s largest luxury-goods maker, declined 5.4 percent to 1,215 pence, its lowest since Jan. 6. The company reported a slowdown in first-quarter sales growth that trailed analysts’ estimates as revenue from its licensing business fell, signaling a possible slowdown for the luxury- goods industry.

• • Increases the value added tax from 18% to 21%

  • In addition, the tax will be increased pollution

  • The size of the budget measures will be 65 billion euros, the duration of the course of reforms - 2.5 years

  • Salaries of civil servants will be reduced, and bonuses at the end of the year canceled

  • The number of employees in the legislative field will be reduced

  • The system of calculation of unemployment benefits will be reviewed.

  Mariano Rahoy also noted that Spain is quite difficult, as it is undergoing the second largest in the recession in its history. He called on Brussels soon to fulfill the agreements reached during the summit and on the direct recapitalization of local banks to reassure market participants. He also expressed satisfaction with the conditions attached to aid.

  Yield of 10-year Spanish bonds decreased by 2.7 pips. to 6.71% on the news.

EUR/USD  $1.2200, $1.2230, $1.2245, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2350

USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.80, Y80.00

EUR/JPY Y96.25, Y97.50

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5540

USD/CHF Chf0.9800

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0150

EUR/AUD A$1.2000

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid concern a global slowdown will hit earnings at companies from Advantest Corp. to BHP Billiton Ltd., while Premier Wen Jiabao’s call for more investment lifted Chinese railway shares.

Nikkei 225 8,851 -6.73 -0.08%

S&P/ASX 200 4,096.54 -1.48 -0.04%

Shanghai Composite 2,175.38 +10.95 +0.51%

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 0.5 percent in Sydney after Citigroup Inc. said slowing growth in China will hurt demand for iron ore.

Advantest, a maker of memory-chip testers, slumped 3.3 percent in Tokyo after a leading U.S. manufacturer of semiconductor equipment cut its sales forecast.

China Railway Group Ltd. paced gains among shares in the sector.

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence July 95.6 99.1

01:30 Australia Home Loans May +0.2% +0.9% -1.2%

US data starts at 1100GMT with the MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 1230GMT, the international trade gap is forecast to narrow to $48.5 billion in May. US data continues at 1400GMT with Wholesale Inventories, followed at 1430GMT by the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data. Also today, the US auctions 9-year 10-month notes, while at 1800GMT, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes are due.

Asian stocks fell a fourth day after China’s trade data signaled the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing. Shares rose earlier after euro-region finance chiefs made progress on finalizing Spain’s bailout.

Nikkei 225 8,857.73    -39.15 -0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,098.02 -20.25 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,164.44 -6.38 -0.29%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest miner, reversed gains after imports to China grew at about half the pace expected by economists.

China Yurun Food Group Ltd. tumbled 4.7 percent after its chairman resigned.

Nikon Corp. slumped 7 percent in Tokyo after Intel Corp. said it will invest in a rival of the Japanese manufacturer of chip-making equipment.

Cosco Pacific Ltd., which operates a port in Greece, rose 2.3 percent after Europe agreed to speed loans to Spanish banks.

European stocks rose for the first time in a week, as the increased level of production in the UK and Italy. Eurozone ministers also agreed on steps to support the Spanish banks.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.8% to 255.6 at the close of trading. Data from Italy and the UK were better than expected. Office for National Statistics said that in Britain the level of production increased by 1.2% in May. The average forecast of 26 economists was for a decline of 0.1%. Total industrial production increased by 1%. In Italy, industrial output grew by 0.8% in May. Economists had forecast a decline of 0.6%. We also learned that European governments agreed to provide 30 billion euros ($ 37 billion) for Spain at the end of July, in order to eventually use the euro rescue fund to recapitalize banks directly, rather than burdening the Spanish government debt.

National indexes rose in all western European markets except Greece and Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,674.71 +47.38 +0.84% ​​CAC 40 3,182.01 +25.21 +0.80% DAX 6,448.57 +61.00 +0.95%

ASML shares rose 8.6% to 43.15 euros, showing the biggest increase since September 2008. Shares of Barclays rose 2.2% to 167 pence.

Logitech International SA (LOGN) grew by 4.3% to 10.12 Swiss francs. The world's largest manufacturer of computer mice, said the board will ask shareholders to approve the one-time dividends.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS) rose 2.1% to 327.8 pence. The largest clothing retailer in the UK said that the head of general merchandise Kate Bostock resign.

Afren Plc (AFR) increased by 9.1% to 114.3 pence amid speculation he may receive a takeover bid. Exxon Mobil Corporation and Eni SpA are considering possible bids for oil and gas companies.

Ipsen (IPN) has fallen by 11% to 17.70 euros after U.S. regulators suspended the trial of the drug.

Balfour Beatty Plc (BBY) fell by 2.9% to 302 pence after the data for the UK showed that the level of production in 2012 will be in line with expectations.

Sodexo (SW) fell by 5% to 58.19 euros, showing the biggest drop since November 2009. The second-largest supplier of catering services, said that sales growth slowed in the third quarter due to deteriorating economic conditions.

Resistance 3: Y80.10 (Jul 5 high )

Resistance 2: Y79.65 (MA (100) H1, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Y79.50 (MA (50) H1)

Current price: Y79.30

Support 1: Y79.10/20 (area of Jul 10 high and Jun 29 high)

Support 2: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9895 (Sep 23 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9845 (Oct 1 high 2010)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9815 (Jul 10 high)

Current price: Chf0.9797

Support 1: Chf0.9775 (MA (50) H1)

Support 2: Chf0.9635 (Jul 10 low, MA (100) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9685 (Jul 6 low, MA (200) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5585 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5545 (Jul 10 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5530 (session high)

Current Price: $ 1.5514

Support 1: $ 1.5475 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5460 (Jul 6 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2400 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2335 (Jul 10 high, MA (100) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2285 (MA (50), H1)

Current Price: $ 1.2259

Support 1: $ 1.2234 (Jul 10 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2200 (psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.2156 (Jun 29 low 2010)

Change % Change Last

Oil $84.01 +0.10 +0.12%

Gold $1,567.90 -11.90 -0.75%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,857.73 -39.15 -0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,098.02 -20.25 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,164.44 -6.38 -0.29%

FTSE 100 5,664.07 +36.74 +0.65%

CAC 40 3,175.41 +18.61 +0.59%

Xetra DAX 6,438.33 +50.76 +0.79%

Dow 12,653.12 -83.17 -0.65%

Nasdaq 2,902.33 -29.44 -1.00%

S&P 500 1,341.47 -10.99 -0.81%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2252 -0,50%

GBP/USD $1,5515 -0,05%

USD/CHF Chf0,9800 +0,50%

USD/JPY Y79,40 -0,20%

EUR/JPY Y97,28 -0,70%

GBP/JPY Y123,18 -0,24%

AUD/USD $1,0191 -0,15%

NZD/USD $0,7939 -0,34%

USD/CAD C$1,0225 +0,33%

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence July 95.6 99.1

01:30 Australia Home Loans May +0.2% +0.9% -1.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) June -0.2% -0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) June +2.3% +1.7%

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions May -0.4 -0.5

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln May -50.1 -48.6

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories May +0.6% +0.4%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -4.3

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes -

22:45 New Zealand Business NZ PMI June 55.7

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m June +0.3%

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y June -0.2%