Forex-novosti i prognoze od 10-07-2012

During the American session, the euro rose slightly after the euro-zone finance ministers agreed on the conditions by Spanish banks, and on the background data, which showed growth of industrial production in Italy and Britain. Support the single currency have the latest news from the European Union, where after meeting the Eurogroup agreed that the first tranche of financial assistance to recapitalize the banks in Spain in the size of 30 billion euros will go the country until the end of July 2012, which is somewhat reduced tensions and expectations for an early exit of the debt crisis. Also on the depreciation of the euro contributed by the Prime Minister of Italy Monti. According to him, even though the country does not need a bailout, as Greece was granted, it would not necessarily oppose the purchase of Italian bond mechanism of the European financial stability. The British pound rose after data showed that the volume of production in the country exceeded forecasts, and the trade deficit narrowed significantly. Thus, in the UK industrial production increased in May by 1.0% m / m, is expected to fall by 0.2% m / m At the same time, in May, Britain's trade deficit narrowed sharply against the shock of exports, recovered from the April aggressive fall. Swiss franc against the dollar has declined during the session, updating the yesterday's high and is now trading in the progress of values. Also during the session increased significantly against the euro, yen, due to increased demand for safe assets and uncertainty about the Council meeting of European finance ministers.

European stocks rose for the first time in a week, as the increased level of production in the UK and Italy. Eurozone ministers also agreed on steps to support the Spanish banks.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.8% to 255.6 at the close of trading. Data from Italy and the UK were better than expected. Office for National Statistics said that in Britain the level of production increased by 1.2% in May. The average forecast of 26 economists was for a decline of 0.1%. Total industrial production increased by 1%. In Italy, industrial output grew by 0.8% in May. Economists had forecast a decline of 0.6%. We also learned that European governments agreed to provide 30 billion euros ($ 37 billion) for Spain at the end of July, in order to eventually use the euro rescue fund to recapitalize banks directly, rather than burdening the Spanish government debt.

National indexes rose in all western European markets except Greece and Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,674.71 +47.38 +0.84% ​​CAC 40 3,182.01 +25.21 +0.80% DAX 6,448.57 +61.00 +0.95%

ASML shares rose 8.6% to 43.15 euros, showing the biggest increase since September 2008. Shares of Barclays rose 2.2% to 167 pence.

Logitech International SA (LOGN) grew by 4.3% to 10.12 Swiss francs. The world's largest manufacturer of computer mice, said the board will ask shareholders to approve the one-time dividends.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS) rose 2.1% to 327.8 pence. The largest clothing retailer in the UK said that the head of general merchandise Kate Bostock resign.

Afren Plc (AFR) increased by 9.1% to 114.3 pence amid speculation he may receive a takeover bid. Exxon Mobil Corporation and Eni SpA are considering possible bids for oil and gas companies.

Ipsen (IPN) has fallen by 11% to 17.70 euros after U.S. regulators suspended the trial of the drug.

Balfour Beatty Plc (BBY) fell by 2.9% to 302 pence after the data for the UK showed that the level of production in 2012 will be in line with expectations.

Sodexo (SW) fell by 5% to 58.19 euros, showing the biggest drop since November 2009. The second-largest supplier of catering services, said that sales growth slowed in the third quarter due to deteriorating economic conditions.

Crude oil futures fell after it was reported that the strike ended in Norway. Text is positively influenced by market participants, causing a decline in prices. Recall that the strike could lead to stopping the production of the largest exporter of raw materials for Western Europe and China.

Futures fell 1.6% after the Norwegian government ordered a mandatory lock to prevent the platform workers. At the same time, the data came from China, which showed that crude oil imports dropped to 5.28 million barrels per day in June, its lowest level this year.

The price of oil has support for the middle Bollinger band on the daily chart at around $ 83.66 a barrel. Futures rose yesterday after trading close to this figure.

At the price of oil will also affect the data on oil reserves in the U.S., are likely to decline, as there were increasing amounts of oil refining to meet peak summer demand and reduce imports. According to average estimates of analysts, oil fell to 1380000 barrels during the seven weeks that ended July 6, and official figures tomorrow will present U.S. Department of Energy.

The cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX decreased and now stands at $ 85.00 a barrel.

August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 1.22 to $ 99.06 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

The price of gold rose in anticipation of meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve, to be held later this month and after that, as representatives of EU finance ministers have given Spain one more year to meet their financial goals.

The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day meeting on 31 July, which is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and may declare to hold another round of quantitative easing. Three of the top politicians of the Federal Reserve on Monday laid the foundation for the third round of bond purchases, saying that the recovery in the U.S. remains weak and unemployment is too high.

Recall that after the first round of bond purchases in late 2008, gold has more than doubled in price.

Recently, there is a tendency of transition from gold to back the dollar, which is caused by high risk. In this regard, the gold loses its status of an asset-seekers. Lack of a clear trend in the U.S. economy, where interest rates are the key factor for the price of gold also scares off potential investors.

The correlation between gold and the dollar index has reached the most negative performance over the past 20 months. This means that these two assets are more likely to move back to each other, as happened in early July. The last time such a negative correlation between the traced at the beginning of December 2010.

We also learned that the gold reserves in the exchange of products fell by the largest amount in one day since the end of May, reflecting the wariness of some investors in bullion.

August gold futures on the COMEX today declined to  2.5$ and now stands at 1586.6 dollars per ounce.

Resistance 3:1620 / 24 (resistance line from Jun 6, Jul 3 and 5 highs)

The resistance of 2:1610 (area of Jul 6 high)

The resistance of 1:1600 (area of session high)

Current Price: 1584.50

Support 1:1576 (Jul 6-9 low)

Support 2: 1558 (resistance line from May 16)

Support 3: 1548 (low of June)

Resistance 3:88,70 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2:86,20 (Jul 9 high)

Resistance 1:85,20 (resistance line from Jul 5)

Current Price: 84.72

Support 1:84,30 (session low, MA (200) for H1, support line from Jul 6)

Support 2:81,80 (Jul 2 low)

Support 3:77,20 (low of June)

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2475

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y80.85

GBP/USD $1.5300, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0200

Euro is trading below 1.2004 Australian dollar, the lowest level since February 1989

The euro / sterling fell below 0.7916, the lowest level since November 2008

U.S. stock futures advanced as concern over Europe’s debt crisis eased after the region’s officials took steps to protect Spanish banks.
Futures rose as European governments will jump-start as much as 100 billion euros ($123 billion) in emergency loans to shore up Spain’s banks and may move the costs off the Spanish government’s balance sheet. Finance chiefs agreed to make available 30 billion euros by the end of this month.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,857.73 -39.15 -0.44%
Hang Seng 19,396.36 -31.73 -0.16%
Shanghai Composite 2,164.44 -6.38 -0.29%
FTSE 5,675.52 +48.19 +0.86%
CAC 3,190.97 +34.17 +1.08%
DAX 6,457.99 +70.42 +1.10%
Crude oil $85.52 (-0,55%)
Gold 0.59% $1598.50
 

Data
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m May +1.5% -0.9% -1.9%
06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y May +0.9% -1.5% +1.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) May 0.0% -0.1% +1.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) May -1.0% -2.1% -1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) May -0.7% +0.1% +1.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) May -0.3% -1.9% -1.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods May -10.1 -9.0 -8.4%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

During the European session, the euro rose slightly after the euro-zone finance ministers agreed on the conditions by Spanish banks, and on the background data, which showed growth of industrial production in Italy.

Support the single currency have the latest news from the European Union, where after meeting the Eurogroup agreed that the first tranche of financial assistance to recapitalize the banks in Spain in the size of 30 billion euros will go the country until the end of July 2012, which is somewhat reduced tensions and expectations for an early exit of the debt crisis.

All investors' attention will be riveted to the Ecofin meeting, which begins today in Brussels: EU finance ministers will hold the second meeting in the capital of Belgium, where he will discuss the details and conditions of the assistance program in Spain. In particular, it is expected that the country will get an extra year to meet targets for reducing the budget deficit to 3% of GDP. "Deadline" will be postponed to 2014, whereas previously it was assumed that Madrid would reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013

The British pound rose after data showed that the volume of production in the country exceeded forecasts, and the trade deficit narrowed significantly. Thus, in the UK industrial production increased in May by 1.0% m / m, is expected to fall by 0.2% m / m At the same time, in May, Britain's trade deficit narrowed sharply against the shock of exports, recovered from the April aggressive fall:

- Balance of trade in goods -8.363 billion GBP vs. prev. -9.709 Billion GBP - Better than forecast -9.1 billion

- The total trade balance of -2.717 billion GBP vs. prev. -4.088 Billion GBP

- The trade balance with countries outside the EU, -3.865 billion GBP vs. prev. -5.125 Billion GBP

- Exports +7.8% m / m

- Imports +1.5% m / m

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2450, $1.2420, $1.2380, $1.2350/60
Bids $1.2275/70, $1.5220, $1.2220, $1.2215/10

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8080/90, stg0.8040/50, stg0.8020/25, stg0.8010, stg0.8000/05, stg0.7980/85
Bids stg0.7900, stg0.7875/70

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.90, Y79.75/80
Bids Y79.00

EUR/JPY
OffersY98.55/60, Y98.50, Y98.20, Y98.00/05
Bids Y97.00, Y96.50, Y96.00

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0350, $1.0330/35, $1.0290/00, $1.0250
Bids $1.0150,  $1.0125/20

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5620/25, $1.5600/10, $1.5580, $1.5550/60
Bids $1.5482/77, $1.5470, $1.5450, $1.5400

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2450, $1.2420, $1.2380, $1.2350/60
Bids $1.2275/70, $1.5220, $1.2220, $1.2215/10

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8080/90, stg0.8040/50, stg0.8020/25, stg0.8010, stg0.8000/05, stg0.7980/85
Bids stg0.7900, stg0.7875/70

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.90, Y79.75/80
Bids Y79.00

EUR/JPY
Offers Y98.55/60, Y98.50, Y98.20, Y98.00/05
Bids Y97.00, Y96.50, Y96.00

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0350, $1.0330/35, $1.0290/00, $1.0250
Bids $1.0150,  $1.0125/20

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5620/25, $1.5600/10, $1.5580, $1.5550/60
Bids $1.5482/77, $1.5470, $1.5450, $1.5400

Resistance 3: Y80.02 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.77 (Jul 9 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.66 (MA(200) for Н1)

Current price: Y79.55

Support 1: Y79.20 (session low)

Support 2: Y79.12 (Jun 28 low)

Support 3: Y78.78 (Jun 20 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9910 (Dec 2010 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9800 (session high)

Current price: Chf0.9758

Support 1: Chf0.9680 (Jul 6 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9630 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9510/20 (area of Jul 3-4 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5620 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5590 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5550 (area of session high and Jul 9 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5528

Support 1: $ 1.5495 (session low)

Support 2: $ 1.5470 (Jun 9 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2610 (Jul 4 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2480 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2312

Support 1: $ 1.2255 (Jul 9 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2145 (Jun 2010 low)

Support 3: $ 1.2000 (psychological level)

European stocks rose for the first time in a week as manufacturing in U.K. and Italy unexpectedly gained and euro-area governments moved to support Spanish banks. U.S. index futures advanced while Asian shares dropped.

U.K. factory output rose 1.2 percent in May from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. In Italy, industrial production gained 0.8 percent in May from a month earlier, the national statistics office Istat said.

European governments agreed to lend 30 billion euros ($37 billion) to Spain by the end of July, with the aim of eventually using the euro-area bailout fund to recapitalize banks directly, instead of burdening the Spanish government with the debts, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said.

China’s imports rose less than expected in June, pushing the trade surplus to a three-year high and adding pressure on the government to boost economic stimulus. Inbound shipments increased 6.3 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said, compared with the 11 percent median estimate in a survey of 32 economists. Export growth slowed to 11.3 percent and the trade surplus rose to $31.7 billion.

In the U.S., Alcoa Inc. (AA) began the second-quarter earnings season yesterday. The nation’s largest aluminum producer said profit excluding charges related to a proposed settlement of Aluminium Bahrain BSC’s bribery lawsuit and other items was 6 cents a share, compared with the 5-cent average of 19 estimates.

ASML jumped 9.1 percent to 43.35 euros after Intel said it will take an initial 10 percent stake in the Dutch company for about $2.1 billion, and later another 5 percent for about $1 billion. ASML will also get another $1 billion in stages, the world’s largest chipmaker said yesterday.

FTSE 100 5,672.94 +45.61 +0.81%       

CAC 40 3,192.39    +35.59 +1.13%               

DAX 6,465.46         +77.89 +1.22%

• -- PDMA sold E1.625bln; E375mln to non-comps

  -- E1.625bln 26-week T-bill; avg yield 4.70% (4.73%), cover 2.16 (2.14)

The British pound jumped after the release of economic data showing that production in the country exceeded forecasts, and the trade deficit narrowed significantly.

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2475

USD/JPY Y80.75, Y80.85

GBP/USD $1.5300, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

AUD/USD $1.0175, $1.0200

Asian stocks fell a fourth day after China’s trade data signaled the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing. Shares rose earlier after euro-region finance chiefs made progress on finalizing Spain’s bailout.

Nikkei 225 8,857.73    -39.15 -0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,098.02 -20.25 -0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,164.44 -6.38 -0.29%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest miner, reversed gains after imports to China grew at about half the pace expected by economists.

China Yurun Food Group Ltd. tumbled 4.7 percent after its chairman resigned.

Nikon Corp. slumped 7 percent in Tokyo after Intel Corp. said it will invest in a rival of the Japanese manufacturer of chip-making equipment.

Cosco Pacific Ltd., which operates a port in Greece, rose 2.3 percent after Europe agreed to speed loans to Spanish banks.

01:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June -2 -3

03:00 China Trade Balance, bln June 18.7 22.6

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence June 40.7 40.9

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households June 40.7

Yesterday the euro traded in a narrow range. The pressure on the single currency has had a regional statistics, under which the euro zone investor confidence index up in July Sentix -29.6 points. In addition, the single currency remained under pressure due to rising yields on the debt of Spain and Italy. The main event of today's session was a meeting of the Eurogroup, which dealt primarily with the outcome of EU summit. But as it became known, the meeting was not very inspired by market participants and the major currencies almost did not react to past events.

Euro retreated from the Asian session low against the dollar on the comments of representatives of the Eurogroup in respect of the debt crisis. According to the European Commission, following the establishment of a pan-European supervisory control over the banking activities, to directly recapitalize the banks by means of the eurozone ESM will not require sovereign guarantees. Support a single currency was the outcome of the German auction. The German Government has placed semi-annual treasury bills amounting to 3.29 billion euros, while intended to attract four billion euros.

The pound was trading at the beginning of the session kept in relation to the dollar, but after the meeting of the Eurogroup, has shown rapid growth, updating the intraday high and is now trading in the data values.

The yen also shows a small but steady growth, updating the current high.

The Australian dollar fell after reports from the Xinhua News Agency, which reported that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the government's intention to conduct a fine job in response to the risks associated with falling economic growth in the country. Comments appear once the largest trading partner of Australia announced a second-rate cut last month. In China, in June 2012. inflation was 2.2%, according to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This was the lowest in the last 2.5 years. Producer price index fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Reduced PPI index is four months in a row and shows a decrease in demand for industrial goods.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest slide in a month, after Premier Wen Jiabao said China’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure and Japanese machinery orders fell the most in a decade.

Nikkei 225 8,896.88 -123.87 -1.37%

S&P/ASX 200 4,118.3 -39.51 -0.95%

Shanghai Composite 2,170.81 -52.77 -2.37%

BHP Billiton Ltd. the world’s biggest mining company, slid 1.9 percent as metals prices dropped following a U.S. jobs report that showed hiring isn’t increasing fast enough to lower the unemployment rate.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. led declines among Chinese developers traded in Hong Kong after Wen pledged to prevent home prices rebounding.

Iluka Resources Ltd. tumbled 24 percent after the world’s biggest zircon producer cut its sales forecast for the mineral by as much as 50 percent.

Resistance 3: Y80.65 (Jun 25 high)

Resistance 2: Y80.10 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1: Y79.75 (Jul9 high, MA (100) H1)

Current price: Y79.50

Support 1: Y79.30/40 (Jul 2 low,Jul 9 low)

Support 2: Y79.10 (Jun 29 low)

Support 3: Y78.80 (Jun6 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9895 (Dec 9 high 2010)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9845 (Dec 13 high 2010)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9800 (Jul 9 high)

Current price: Chf0.9772

Support 1: Chf0.9745 (session low)

Support 2: Chf0.9685 (Jul 6 low, MA (100) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9625 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5625 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5590 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5535/50 (area of Jul 6-9 highs, MA (100) H1)

Current Price: $ 1.5501

Support 1: $ 1.5460 (Jul 6 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5400 (Jun 8 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2475 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2400 (Jul 6 high, MA (100) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2325 (Jul 9 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2284

Support 1: $ 1.2260 (Jul 9 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2200 (psychological level)

Support 3: $ 1.2155 (Jun 29 low 2010)

Change % Change Last

Oil 84.83 -1.16 -1.35%

Gold 1,585.40 -3.70 -0.23%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,896.88 -123.87 -1.37%

S&P/ASX 200 4,118.3 -39.51 -0.95%

Shanghai Composite 2,170.81 -52.77 -2.37%

FTSE 100 5,627.33 -35.30 -0.62%

CAC 40 3,156.8 -11.99 -0.38%

Xetra DAX 6,387.57 -22.54 -0.35%

S&P 500 1,352.46 -2.22 -0.16%

NASDAQ 2,931.77 -5.56 -0.19%

Dow Jones 12,736.29 -36.18 -0.28%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2313 +0,21%

GBP/USD $1,5523 +0,22%

USD/CHF Chf0,9751 -0,22%

USD/JPY Y79,56 -0,13%

EUR/JPY Y97,96 +0,10%

GBP/JPY Y123,48 +0,11%

AUD/USD $1,0206 -0,03%

NZD/USD $0,7966 -0,11%

USD/CAD C$1,0191 -0,03%

01:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June -2 -3

03:00 China Trade Balance, bln June 18.7 22.6

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence June 40.7 40.9

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households June 40.7

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m May +1.5% -0.9%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y May +0.9% -1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom           Industrial Production (MoM) May 0.0% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom  Industrial Production (YoY) May -1.0% -2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) May -0.7% +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) May -0.3% -1.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods May -10.1 -9.0

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

12:15 Canada Housing Starts June 211 202

14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate June +0.1%

23:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks -

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index May -0.3% +0.2%