Forex-novosti i prognoze od 13-07-2012

During the American session, the euro has risen sharply with no apparent reason. The opinion of market participants on this issue are divided: some say that this has happened to the rumors of currency purchases Austrian bank, others argue that this was due to the displacement of short positions. Well so does this one certainly can not say now. Now the euro is trading cautiously in the area reached maximum values. Significant movement also spread to other currency pairs. The pound against the dollar during the entire session is rapidly declining, and is now trading near the maximum on July 11. The course of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar during the day surprised by stable growth, while cutting off more than 80% of the losses that he suffered yesterday. The increase was caused by weak China GDP data, which are of concern regarding the prospects of the economy. The yen strengthened during the session, and updated with a minimum of 11 July. Who is the course a little bit back from the minimum values​​, and shows a slight increase.

European stocks rose for a sixth week as China’s slowest expansion in three years fueled speculation policy makers will add to stimulus measures and Italy’s borrowing costs fell at an auction.

Storebrand ASA (STB), Norway’s second-largest publicly traded insurer, rallied 8.2 percent after saying it will meet capital requirements without selling shares. Temenos Group AG (TEMN) rebounded 5.9 percent. PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) slumped to the lowest price since at least 1989 over concerns that the French government may step in after Europe’s second-largest carmaker announced plans to close a factory and cut jobs.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.3 percent to 256.26 at the close of trading.

National benchmark indexes gained in all of the 18 western- European (SXXP) markets except Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,666.13 +57.88 +1.03% CAC 40 3,180.81 +45.63 +1.46% DAX 6,557.1 +137.75 +2.15%

Italian borrowing costs fell at an auction today, hours after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the country’s bond rating by two levels to Baa2 from A3 and reiterated its negative outlook, citing the worsening political and economic situation.

Storebrand, Norway’s second-largest publicly traded insurer, rallied 8.2 percent to 24.01 kroner. The company said it will cut costs by at least 400 million kroner ($66 million) by 2014 and meet stricter European capital requirements without selling new shares.

Temenos Group AG gained 5.9 percent to 10.85 francs. The banking-software maker plunged the most in 3 1/2 years yesterday as it cut its revenue-growth forecast and said its chief executive officer will step down.

Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) gained 5.7 percent to 9.18 euros after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its rating on the company’s shares to neutral from underperform.

Elisa Oyj (ELI1V), Finland’s largest wireless carrier by subscribers, jumped 5.7 percent to 16.80 euros as second-quarter sales of 389 million euros beat the average 384.2 million-euro analyst estimate.

Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) fell 2.5 percent to 1.51 euros after the mobile- phone maker struggling to recover lost market share said it will close two of its four regional distribution centers in China as part of a restructuring plan it announced last month to halt mounting losses from plunging smartphone sales. Nokia on June 14 said it would cut as many as 10,000 jobs globally and close facilities.

Deutsche Bank AG slipped 1.9 percent to 25.60 euros and Bankia SA declined 7 percent to 65.1 euro cents.

Booker Group Plc (BOK), the largest U.K. food wholesaler, slumped 2.6 percent to 88.95 pence after Shore Capital Group Ltd. cut the stock to sell from hold.

• It should contain expectations regarding the impact of further action
• The use of further action in respect of the balance will "risks beyond the control"
• Will further encourage the Fed to where it was not
• Further action the Fed should be taken "very meaningful"
• "Maybe" will be taken next decision on the policy
• Long-term unemployment may complicate the problem of structural
• Risks have increased pressure on the economic outlook
• The official forecast has been lowered, it shows weaker growth
• Data published for the first two quarters of this year, were "disappointing"
• The observed recent employment growth has been "much weaker than expected"
• Employment growth "slowed considerably" in the 2nd quarter

Oil rose for a third day, the longest winning streak in a month, as slowing growth in China fueled stimulus speculation and U.S. equities advanced. Crude gained as much as 1.4 percent as China’s growth slowed to the weakest pace in three years, putting pressure on the government to act. U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gaining for the first time in seven days.

China’s economic expansion slowed for a sixth quarter, growing at 7.6 percent in the second quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today. That compares with an 8.1 percent gain in the previous period and the 7.7 percent median forecast of economists. Industrial production increased at a slower pace in June while retail sales growth decelerated.

Interest Rate

Oil also advanced on the as the U.S. announced more sanctions on Iran. Yesterday the Obama administration sanctioned the National Iranian Tanker Co. and four alleged front companies for Iran’s oil trade, the latest salvo in a U.S.-led campaign to curtail Iran’s petroleum sales until it abandons illicit aspects of its disputed nuclear program.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced it would freeze American assets belonging to the tanker operator, known as NITC, and block the company’s transactions from the U.S. financial system.

The August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX rose 0.85% and now stands at $ 86.93 a barrel.

August futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $ 2.24 to the level of 102.88 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold futures posted gains Friday, rising for the first in four sessions and getting some support from a pullback in the U.S. dollar and after data showed China’s economy slowed in line with expectations in the second quarter.

China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in more than three years in the second quarter, with gross domestic product expanding at an annual rate of 7.6% versus 8.1% in the first three months of the year. The figure was in line with economists’ forecasts, and it came as a relief as many market participants had been bracing for worse numbers.

The precious metal saw some selling this week after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate setting meeting didn’t send strong signals that the U.S. central bank is set to embark on another round of monetary easing. A stronger dollar also weighed on the precious metal for most of this week. The index recently reached 83.376, retreating from 83.666 in late North American trading on Thursday. While gold may see some gains for the time being, we do not believe gold will be able to mount a convincing rally until high demand for U.S. Treasuries moderates and the euro steadies.

August gold futures on the COMEX today declined by 25.5$ and now stands at $ 1590.8 USD per ounce.

Resistance of 3:1618 (resistance line from Jun 6)

Resistance of 2:1610 (area of Jul 6 high)

Resistance of 1:1600 (area of Jul 10 high)

Current Price: 1591.00

Support 1:1579 (intraday low)

Support 2:1558 (area of July 12 low, support line from May 16)

Support 3: 1548 (low of June)

Resistance 3:91,70 (50,0% FIBO 106,10-77,20, Jun 29 high)

Resistance 2:88,70 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 1:87,10 (session high)

Current Price: 86.65

Support 1:85,60 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 2:83,40 (Jul 10 low)

Support 3:81,80 (Jul 2 low)

Resistance of 3:1375 (high of July)
Resistance of 2:1356 (Jul 10 high)
Resistance of 1:1349 (MA (200) for H1)
Current Price: 1344.00
Support 1:1330 (session lows)
Support 2:1320 (Jul 12 low, 50,0% FIBO 1265-1375)
Support 3:1307 / 02 (MA (200) for D1, Jun 25-26 lows, 61,8% FIBO 1265-1375) 

EUR/USD $1.2135, $1.2170, $1.2175, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2300, $1.2350

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.75, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5650

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0195, $1.0100

AUD/JPY Y83.00

USD/CAD C$1.0150

U.S. stock futures rose as slowing expansion in China fueled speculation policy makers will boost stimulus measures.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,724.12 +4.11 +0.05%
Hang Seng 19,092.63 +67.52 +0.35%
Shanghai Composite 2,185.9 +0.40 +0.02%
FTSE  5,633.54 +25.29 +0.45%
CAC  3,144.97 +9.79 +0.31%
DAX 6,474.94 +55.59 +0.87%
Crude oil $86.72 (+0,74%)
Gold $1581.80 (1.05%)

The closest support level of $ 1.2165 (Jul 12 low)

Data

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m June -0.2% -0.2% -0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y June -2.3% -2.2% -2.2%

The euro headed for a second weekly decline against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service cut Italy’s credit rating, adding to concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening.

The 17-nation currency was 0.3 percent from a six-week low versus the yen as the ratings company cited the nation’s “weaker growth and higher unemployment” and risks to market funding.

Moody’s lowered Italy’s government bond rating by two levels to Baa2 and said further downgrading was possible, according to a statement released today in Frankfurt. That’s two levels above junk and one above SpainThe euro pared losses versus the greenback today after Italy’s borrowing costs fell at a debt sale.

The British pound rose after the Bank of England and the Ministry of Finance announced the launch of the program loan financing (FLS), which will become effective on August 1. Using the FLS will allow the banks to abandon expensive wholesale funding in favor of cheaper by the central bank, but only if they use these funds for loans for home buyers and businesses.

EUR/USD
Offers $1.2290/300, $1.2235-50
Bids $1.2165/60, $1.2150, $1.2125/20

EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8010, stg0.8000/05, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7950, stg0.7920
Bids stg0.7880/70, stg0.7855/50, stg0.7810/00

USD/JPY
Offers Y80.10, Y80.00, Y79.75/80, Y79.45/50
Bids  Y79.20, Y79.00

EUR/JPY
Offers  Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.70/75, Y97.50, Y96.90/00
Bids Y96.50, Y96.00, Y95.50

AUD/USD
Offers  $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0235/40, $1.0200
Bids  $1.0125/20, $1.0110, $1.0100, $1.0075/70, $1.0050

GBP/USD
Offers  $1.5620/25, $1.5600/10, $1.5580, $1.5550, $1.5530/35, $1.5500, $1.5480/85
Bids  $1.5380, $1.5350, $1.5330

Resistance 3: Y80.10 (Jul 5 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.95 (Asian session high)

Resistance 1: Y79.60 (MA(200) for Н1)

Current price: Y79.28

Support 1: Y79.12 (Jul 11 low)

Support 2: Y78.78 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0060 (MA (200) for W1)

Resistance 2: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9910 (Dec 2010 high)

Current price: Chf0.9847

Support 1: Chf0.9800 (Jul 12 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9720 (MA (200) for H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9580 (Jul 5 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5580 (Jul 11 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5540 (MA (200) for H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5515 (Jul 12 high)

Current Price: $ 1.5444

Support 1: $ 1.5390 (Jul 12 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5315 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5270 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2540 (Jul 5 high)

European stocks gained as China reported the slowest expansion in three years, fueling speculation policy makers will add to stimulus measures. China’s growth slowed for a sixth quarter to the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, putting pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to boost stimulus to secure a second-half economic rebound.

Gross domestic product expanded 7.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. The pace, a three-year low, compares with an 8.1 percent gain in the previous period and the 7.7 percent median forecast of economists. Industrial production increased at a slower pace in June while retail sales growth decelerated.

Italy today auctions as much as 5.25 billion euros ($6.4 billion) of a new three-year bond and three longer-dated securities. Moody’s Investors Service cut the country’s bond rating and reiterated its negative outlook, as the euro area’s third-biggest economy faces higher funding costs, slower growth, and contagion risk from Greece and Spain.

The ratings company lowered Italy’s rating by two steps to Baa2 from A3 and said further downgrading is possible, according to a statement released in Frankfurt today. That makes Italy’s grade the same as those of Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Brazil.

Storebrand, Norway’s second-largest publicly traded insurer, rallied 8 percent to 24 kroner. The company said it will cut costs by at least 400 million kroner ($66 million) by 2014 and meet stricter European capital requirements without selling new shares.

FTSE 100 5,642.71 +34.46 +0.61%               

CAC 40 3,149.48    +14.30 +0.46%               

DAX 6,468.31         +48.96 +0.76%       

EUR/USD $1.2135, $1.2170, $1.2175, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2300, $1.2350

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.25, Y79.75, Y80.00

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5650

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0195, $1.0100

AUD/JPY Y83.00

USD/CAD C$1.0150

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter II +8.1% +7.9% +7.6%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y June +9.6% +9.8% +9.5%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y June +13.8% +13.6% +13.7%

04:30 Japan                       Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) May -0.2% -3.1% -3.4%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) May +12.9% +6.2% +6.0%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report July

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark index poised to snap six days of losses, on speculation policy makers will do more to support growth after China reported the slowest expansion in three years, South Korea cut its outlook and Singapore said its economy shrank.

Nikkei 225 8,724.12 +4.11 +0.05%

Hang Seng 19,092.63 +67.52 +0.35%

S&P/ASX 200 4,082.25 +14.28 +0.35%

Shanghai Composite 2,185.9 +0.40 +0.02%

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s biggest carmaker, rose 3.4 percent after workers agreed to resume wage negotiations, averting a threatened a strike.

Belle International Holdings Ltd., a women’s shoe retailer that gets most of its revenue from China, climbed 3.8 percent in Hong Kong after reporting sales jumped.

Dentsu Inc., a Japanese advertising company, sank 7 percent after agreeing to buy Britain’s Aegis Group Plc.

Chinese airlines rose after the Shanghai Daily reported the government may set up investment companies to buy airline stakes

Yesterday during the American session, the euro showed a slight increase due to the lack of important economic data. A slight decrease was seen after the publication of data on the federal budget, which came out better than expected.

Pounds during the entire day is rapidly decreased, reaching minimum values ​​at the same time on June 8. The

Australian dollar started to fall yesterday, after data showed that unemployment rose. But during the American session the pair was trading kept in the maximum values ​​reached.

The yen during the day, consolidating after the sharp decline in the early afternoon on the background comments of the Bank of Japan monetary policy and the decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Asian stocks fell for a sixth day as concern over a global slump overshadowed moves by central banks in Japan and South Korea to buoy economic growth. Hong Kong stocks slid ahead of a report from China expected to show the slowest expansion since the financial crisis.

Nikkei 225 8,720.01 -130.99 -1.48%

S&P/ASX 200 4,067.97 -28.57 -0.70%

Shanghai Composite 2,185.49 +10.11 +0.46%

Asahi Glass Co. led Japanese makers of the material lower after cutting its operating profit forecast by almost a third.

Hyundai Motor Co. fell 3.1 percent as its workers threatened to strike.

Infosys Ltd., India’s second-biggest exporter of software, slid 8.9 percent after cutting a sales forecast.

China Construction Bank Corp. paced declines among mainland lenders.

Resistance 3: Y79.95 (Jul 12 high)

Resistance 2: Y79.60 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: Y79.40 (session high)

Current price: Y79.25

Support 1: Y79.00/10 (Jul 11 low, MA (200) D1)

Support 2: Y78.80 (Jun 20 low)

Support 3: Y78.60 (Jun 15 low)

Resistance 3: Chf1.0000 (psychological level)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9915 (Oct 10 high 2010)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9870 (Jul 11 high)

Current price: Chf0.9835

Support 1: Chf0.9805 (Jul 12 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9735 (Jul 10 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9710 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5575 (Jul 11 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5545 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5500 (psychological level)

Current Price: $ 1.5433

Support 1: $ 1.5390 (Jul 12 low)

Support 2: $ 1.5320 (Jun 5 low)

Support 3: $ 1.5265 (Jun 1 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.2375 (MA (200) H1)

Resistance 2: $ 1.2335 (Jul 10 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.2245 (Jul 12 high)

Current Price: $ 1.2208

Support 1: $ 1.2165 (Jul 12 low)

Support 2: $ 1.2150 (Jun low 2010)

Support 3: $ 1.2100 (psychological level)

Change % Change Last

Oil $84.01 +0.10 +0.12%

Gold $1,567.90 -11.90 -0.75%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,720.01 -130.99 -1.48%

S&P/ASX 200 4,067.97 -28.57 -0.70%

Shanghai Composite 2,185.49 +10.11 +0.46%

FTSE 100 5,608.25 -56.23 -0.99%

CAC 40 3,135.18 -22.07 -0.70%

Xetra DAX 6,419.35 -34.50 -0.53%

Dow 12,574.48 -30.05 -0.24%

Nasdaq 2,866.19 -21.79 -0.75%

S&P 500 1,334.86 -6.59 -0.49%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2199 -0,32%

GBP/USD $1,5430 -0,52%

USD/CHF Chf0,9841 +0,32%

USD/JPY Y79,28 -0,58%

EUR/JPY Y96,71 -0,90%

GBP/JPY Y122,31 -1,10%

AUD/USD $1,0135 -0,48%

NZD/USD $0,7897 -0,43%

USD/CAD C$1,0190 -0,08%

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter II +8.1% +7.9% +7.6%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y June +9.6% +9.8% +9.5%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y June +13.8% +13.6% +13.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) May -0.2% -3.1%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) May +12.9% +6.2%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report July

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m June -0.2% -0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y June -2.3% -2.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m June -1.0% -0.5%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y June +0.7% -0.4%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m June +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y June +2.7% +2.6%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) July 73.2 73.5

17:20 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -