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- BoJ Hawkish Move Prompts the Fed
BoJ Hawkish Move Prompts the Fed
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has gained 0.5% to
103.93 points this week, signaling continued strength amid expectations of
extended monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is set to meet
this Wednesday.
The EURUSD pair declined by 0.4% to 1.08450 as
the Greenback strengthened. This movement comes in response to the recent
inflation data for February in the United States, which showed an unexpected
increase to 3.2% YoY, up from 3.1% YoY in January. Additionally, the producer
price index surged to 1.6% YoY, surpassing expectations and indicating a
persistent inflationary pressure.
Investors were surprised by this uptick in
inflation, leading to a sharp drop in bets on interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Expectations for rate cuts in May fell to 11.0%, while bets for cuts in June
decreased to 50.7%, down from 60.0% the previous week. The Fed has maintained
that it needs certainty that inflation will be under control before considering
rate cuts, but rising oil prices may complicate this outlook.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its interest
rates to 0.00% from -0.10%, marking the first increase in 17 years.
Additionally, the BoJ abandoned government debt yield curve control, signaling
a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy. This move aligns with a
global trend of central banks moving towards tighter policy.
Given these developments, the U.S. Dollar is
expected to continue strengthening. However, a firm downside trend for the
EURUSD pair would require a dive below 1.08000. Until then, betting on Dollar
strengthening may be premature.
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