The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) experienced a
slight decline of 0.1% to 103.95 points this week, prompting the EURUSD to
retreat by 0.3% to 1.08700. The market is bracing for the release of U.S.
inflation data on April 10.
Last week, the EURUSD flirted with the
possibility of dipping below 1.07000 but found support around 1.07250 before
rallying to 1.08760 ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Now, if the
pair manages to surpass 1.08700, it could potentially continue its ascent
towards 1.10000. However, it's likely to hover around 1.08600 before the
release of March inflation data in the U.S. Analysts anticipate the consumer
price index (CPI) to rise to 3.4% YoY compared to 3.2% YoY in February, with
monthly inflation and core CPI data expected to decrease by 0.1% in March.
The recent resilience of the Dollar, despite
robust U.S. labor market data, is notable. Nonfarm Payrolls significantly
exceeded expectations for March, reaching 303,000, with unemployment dropping
to 3.8% and average hourly earnings accelerating to 0.3% MoM. Despite these
strong figures, the Dollar only saw a slight uptick before surrendering its
gains by the end of the week. This dynamic occurred despite rising U.S. 10-year
Treasuries yields, reaching 4.46%, and decreasing odds of interest rate cuts by
the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June, which now stand at 46%, according to the CME
FedWatch Tool.
Investor believe that BoJ may intervene when the
USDJPY would rise above 153.0. The pair is very close to this barrier. In case
of interventions, the Dollar will continue to weaken. This may result in the
EURUSD to go up above 1.10000. The release of inflation data this Wednesday
will serve as a key event driving market sentiment, alongside the FOMC Minutes
and the meeting of the European Central Bank. However, the inflation release is
expected to provide a fundamental basis for market movements.
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