The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has shown strength
this week, rising by 0.3% to 106.30. Conversely, the EURUSD has experienced a
decline of 0.2% to 1.06150, reaching its lowest level since November 2, 2023,
when it was lower at 1.0620 early Tuesday.
The currency market has been relatively
stagnant for almost four months, with the EURUSD mostly trading within the
1.08000-1.09000 range. However, the trend has finally shifted in favor of the
Greenback following higher-than-expected March inflation data in the United
States. Consumer prices for March increased to 3.5% YoY, surpassing consensus
at 3.4% and up from 3.2% in February. This exceeded Federal Reserve (Fed)
projections and led to a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasuries yields to 4.58%, while
bets on interest rate cuts by the Fed in June dropped below 20.0% from 56.0%.
The Euro faced downward pressure as the
European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates in June. The EURUSD
dropped to 1.06400 on April 10 from 1.08600. Although there was a recovery on
April 15, strong retail sales in the U.S. at 0.7% MoM for March pushed the
10-year Treasuries yields further up to 4.66%, leading the Dollar to set a new
5-month high.
The strengthening of the Greenback has become
more pronounced, with reports of significant bets on options supporting this
trend. However, for the Dollar to continue strengthening, some correction may
be necessary. From a technical standpoint, a correction to the area around
1.06700-1.06800 for the EURUSD seems plausible. This pivotal moment may prompt
consideration of opening short trades for the Euro. However, such a downside
scenario is controversial, given strong support located at 1.05000-1.06000.
Alternatively, a drop in GBPUSD to 1.20000-1.21000 appears more realistic if
the pair falls below the support at 1.24000.
The trigger for the EURUSD correction is
uncertain, but China's weakening of the Yuan after mixed economic data on
Tuesday has added pressure to the currency market. March inflation data
releases in the Eurozone and the U.K. on Wednesday could potentially initiate
the correction if they exceed expectations.
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