Gold Is Waiting for U.S. Ceasefire Ultimatum Deadline to Russia to Expire

Gold prices declined by 0.72% to $3,311 per troy ounce this week, dipping to $3,268 on Wednesday. The precious metal approached the key support zone of $3,230–$3,250 but sharply rebounded, as it had on two previous occasions. Prices are now moving back toward the centre of the consolidation range of $3,250–$3,450, settling around $3,330–$3,350. The flat summer pattern continues. Last week, gold reached as high as $3,438, likely driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. However, after Trump’s visit to the Fed, tensions eased. He called Powell’s removal “unlikely” and instead urged him to make the “right” decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Gold subsequently returned to the $3,330–$3,350 range by the end of the week.

The new week began with a further 0.7% drop to $3,314 after the U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement, reducing geopolitical risks and thereby diminishing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Prices rebounded by 0.45% to $3,326 on Tuesday after unproductive U.S. trade talks with China. American negotiators demanded that Beijing stop importing Russian oil within nine days, aligning with Trump’s August 8 deadline for resolving the Ukraine conflict. China responded that it is a sovereign nation and it will decide independently whom it will trades with.

On Wednesday, stronger-than-expected ADP Nonfarm Payrolls and Q2 GDP figures pressured gold further. However, prices rebounded during Powell’s press conference, where he ignored Trump’s calls and kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50%, while also taking a notably hawkish stance on the inflationary effects of tariffs. After the Fed meeting, a frustrated Trump turned his attention to India and Brazil. India was hit with 25% tariffs for importing Russian oil and weapons, while Brazil faced an additional 40% in separate tariffs over the prosecution of Trump’s ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro. These actions suggest the U.S. is targeting the BRICS bloc more broadly. Trump is clearly eager to resolve the Ukraine conflict, which would free up strategic capacity to shift U.S. focus to the Indo-Pacific region.

The deadline for Trump’s ultimatum to Russia expires on Friday, 8 August. If U.S. pressure escalates further, gold could climb again toward the upper end of the consolidation range at $3,450. Whether it breaks above this level will depend on the pace and intensity of the geopolitical developments. From a technical standpoint, such a breakout still appears difficult in the short term. However, large investors seem to be positioning for a potential rally. Last week, they purchased $1.37 billion worth of shares in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF, and have sold only $92.3 million worth this week, signalling continued confidence despite the recent pullback.

Key U.S. macroeconomic releases on Thursday and Friday, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the official Nonfarm Payrolls report for July, are unlikely to move the market significantly due to mixed forecasts. Instead, investor focus will likely remain fixed on the outcome of the U.S. ultimatum to Russia. This deadline coincides with mid-August, when a breakout from the $3,250–$3,450 range could become technically viable.