Gold Is Accelerating to the Upside

Gold surged 2.0% this week to $3,759 per troy ounce, setting another all-time high at $3,791. The breakout confirms the start of an extreme rally toward the $3,850–$3,950 target zone.

The rally was already in motion before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, as bullion cleared the critical $3,610–$3,630 resistance. A textbook retest followed when Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a hawkish tone, briefly pushing prices down to $3,627. The dip proved short-lived, with investors dismissing Powell’s stance as political posturing rather than an economic necessity.

The Fed’s 25 bp rate cut and updated dot plot projecting an additional cut in 2025 reinforced the bullish outlook. Large investors echoed that view: the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) attracted $2.3 billion of inflows last week—matching a record from earlier this summer—followed by another $708.1 million this week. Institutional positioning is clearly aligned with a push toward the $3,850–$3,950 band.

Gold now trades within the $3,760–$3,780 resistance range, the final barrier before the next leg higher. Key U.S. data due Thursday and Friday, the final Q2 GDP estimate and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, could provide the immediate catalyst. Signs of softer inflation would reinforce expectations of deeper rate cuts, underpinning bullion’s advance.

Looking beyond data, investors may also be positioning ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown on October 1, which would likely fuel additional safe-haven demand.

Still, on a 3–6 month horizon, risks are building. Gold is now more overbought than at any time since 1975. Yet in the short term, momentum and a supportive policy backdrop favour further upside. For now, the path of least resistance remains higher.