Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 02-04-2014

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) February +1.2% +0.4%     

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y February +6.2%         

00:30 Australia Trade Balance February 1.43 0.82     

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI March 55.0         

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI March 51.0         

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) March 51.4 51.4     

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) March 54.0 54.0     

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) March 52.4 52.4     

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services March 58.2 58.2     

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I             

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February +1.6% -0.3%     

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February +1.3% +0.6%     

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25%     0.25%     

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference                 

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February -0.18 0.2     

12:30 U.S. International Trade, bln February -39.1 -38.3     

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims March 311 319     

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar amid confident data on the employment market USA. As shown by recent data that were presented Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in March, private sector employment increased markedly , and came close to the predictive values. According to a report last month, the number of employees increased by 191 thousand people, compared with a revised upward figure for the previous month at 178 million ( initially reported growth of 139 thousand ) . Add that, according to the average forecast of this indicator would grow by 192 thousand

Strengthening of the dollar also contributed data on the growth of industrial orders in the United States. Factor in the growth in orders was supposed to economic recovery after the winter with bad weather conditions , because of which there is a delay before. Increase in orders was the highest in seven months.

Commerce Department said Wednesday that new orders for producers rose in February by 1.6% , which was the highest growth since September. Economists had expected orders by 1.3%. Data on changes in the volume of orders in January were revised with the reduction - reduction of 1.0% compared to the previously reported decrease of 0.7%. The volume of orders except the volatile transportation category rose in February by 0.7 % , the biggest increase since July. In January, the volume of orders for this category decreased by 0.1 %.

Euro also declined on weak data for the euro area and the approaching meeting of the ECB . Recently, increased expectations that the ECB will leave monetary policy unchanged and Draghi will optimistic. However, the media have been rumors that on Thursday members of the Governing Council will be conducted " vigorous debate " since the March Inflation Report has been very disappointing. This means that members of the ECB is still deep in thought as to what steps to take and launch new stimulus is not excluded.

Eurozone producer prices fell by 0.2 per cent ( on a monthly basis ) , after easing to 0.3 percent in January . Experts predicted that this figure will remain unchanged in February. Excluding energy , producer prices remained unchanged , after rising 0.1 percent in January . Prices for capital goods and consumer non-durables also remained unchanged in February. The cost of intermediate goods decreased by 0.1 percent , offsetting an increase of 0.1 percent in January . Meanwhile, lower energy prices slowed to 0.5 percent from 1.2 percent. On an annualized basis , producer prices fell by 1.7 per cent compared with a fall of 1.4 percent in the previous month . Fall also exceeded economists' consensus forecasts at -1.6 percent.

Meanwhile, another report from Eurostat showed : in the fourth quarter, the eurozone economy grew by 0.5% after falling 0.3 % in the previous quarter . Rate in quarterly terms rose by 0.2 % vs. 0.1% . Add that these data will be final. Experts predicted that GDP will rise by 0.3 % qoq and 0.5% per annum.

Pound showed a steady increase against the dollar in anticipation of UK PMI data , but weak report forced the couple to change the direction of his dvizheniya.Indeks business in the construction sector from Markit / CIPS fell in March to a level of 62.5 points from 62.6 in February , but remained near the maximum for the last 6.5 years , which was recorded in January (64.6 points). We add that the index remains above the neutral mark for 11 consecutive months. Many experts , however, expect that figure will rise to the level of 63.1 points. Also, the report showed that the builders were elated last month ( optimism rose to its highest level since January 2007) and hired staff at the fastest pace in four months.

Put pressure on the pound and a report from the Nationwide Building Society, which showed that house prices rose in March by 9.5 percent ( yoy ) , after rising 9.4 percent in February. The latest increase was slightly less than the experts' forecasts at 9.7 percent, but was the highest since May 2010 , when prices rose by 9.8 percent . Given these changes , the average cost of housing in March totaled 180,264 pounds - the highest level since January 2008 . On a monthly basis , prices rose only 0.4 percent in March , which was slower than the 0.7 percent growth recorded in February and economists' forecasts at 0.8 percent. Nevertheless , it was the fifteenth consecutive monthly gain .

USD/JPY Y102.00, Y102.30, Y102.35/40, Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.75/80

EUR/JPY Y141.00

EUR/USD $1.3685, $1.3700, $1.3725, $1.3750, $1.3800

EUR/GBP stg0.8300, stg0.8430, stg0.8475

USD/CHF Chf0.8950

USD/CAD C$1.1055, C$1.1100, C$1.1120, C$1.1140, C$1.1150, C$1.1200

Data

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m February +6.8% -1.7% -5.0%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y February +34.6% +23.2%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.8% +0.4%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +9.4% +9.6% +9.5%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction March 62.6 63.1 62.5

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.5% +0.5% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM February -0.3% 0.0% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) February -1.4% -1.6% -1.7%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

09:00 Eurozone ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks

The euro exchange rate has lost all previously earned positions against the dollar on weak data and approximating the ECB meeting . Recently, increased expectations that the ECB will leave monetary policy unchanged and Draghi will optimistic. However, the media have been rumors that on Thursday members of the Governing Council will be conducted " vigorous debate " since the March Inflation Report has been very disappointing. This means that members of the ECB is still deep in thought as to what steps to take and launch new stimulus is not excluded. As for today's data , they showed that producer prices fell by 0.2 per cent ( on a monthly basis ) , after easing to 0.3 percent in January . Experts predicted that this figure will remain unchanged in February. Excluding energy , producer prices remained unchanged , after rising 0.1 percent in January . Prices for capital goods and consumer non-durables also remained unchanged in February. The cost of intermediate goods decreased by 0.1 percent , offsetting an increase of 0.1 percent in January . Meanwhile, lower energy prices slowed to 0.5 percent from 1.2 percent. On an annualized basis , producer prices fell by 1.7 per cent compared with a fall of 1.4 percent in the previous month . Fall also exceeded economists' consensus forecasts at -1.6 percent.

Meanwhile, another report from Eurostat showed : in the fourth quarter, the eurozone economy grew by 0.5% after falling 0.3 % in the previous quarter . Rate in quarterly terms rose by 0.2 % vs. 0.1% . Add that these data will be final. Experts predicted that GDP will rise by 0.3 % qoq and 0.5% per annum.

Pound showed a steady increase against the dollar in anticipation of UK PMI data , but weak report forced the couple to change its direction of motion . Despite the fact that it was a minor report , the market is still longed to get a new catalyst to propel the pair above , but nothing happened . Now the focus of employment data from the U.S. ADP , which in the case of a positive result can cause the couple to continue to grow, and to update the maximum. As for the data , they showed that the index of business activity in the construction sector from Markit / CIPS fell in March to a level of 62.5 points from 62.6 in February , but remained near the maximum for the last 6.5 years , which was recorded in January ( 64.6 points). We add that the index remains above the neutral mark for 11 consecutive months. Many experts , however, expect that figure will rise to the level of 63.1 points. Also, the report showed that the builders were elated last month ( optimism rose to its highest level since January 2007) and hired staff at the fastest pace in four months.

Put pressure on the pound and a report from the Nationwide Building Society, which showed that house prices rose in March by 9.5 percent ( yoy ) , after rising 9.4 percent in February. The latest increase was slightly less than the experts' forecasts at 9.7 percent, but was the highest since May 2010 , when prices rose by 9.8 percent . Given these changes , the average cost of housing in March totaled 180,264 pounds - the highest level since January 2008 . On a monthly basis , prices rose only 0.4 percent in March , which was slower than the 0.7 percent growth recorded in February and economists' forecasts at 0.8 percent. Nevertheless , it was the fifteenth consecutive monthly gain .

Dollar traded little change against the yen on the eve of today's publication of the U.S. data . Now all eyes are on the ADP employment report . According to the median forecast of economists in March, the number of new jobs created in the U.S. increased by 192 thousand , after rising by 139 thousand in the previous month . If the results are positive, it will cause the expectations for that go into Friday's payrolls USDA , followed closely following the Federal Reserve will also be optimistic. According to the median forecast of economists in March U.S. employers created 200 thousand jobs , against 175 thousand in the previous month . If the estimates are confirmed, the dollar has strengthened even more.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3783

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6663

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y103.65 from Y103.95

At 12:15 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the number of employees from ADP in March , and 14:00 GMT - a change in volume production orders for February. At 14:30 GMT the United States , there are data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department . At 22:30 GMT , Australia will publish the index of activity in the service of AiG March . At 23:01 GMT Britain submit BRC Retail Sales Monitor for March. At 23:15 GMT Japan is to publish an index of business activity in the services sector in March .

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3945, $1.3900, $1.3880, $1.3845/50, $1.3835

Bids $1.3770/80, $1.3705/00, $1.3694, $1.3650

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6785, $1.6715/20, $1.6700

Bids $1.6600/10, $1.6575/80, $1.6550, $1.6520, $1.6500

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9350, $0.9300/10

Bids $0.9215/20, $0.9200, $0.9170, $0.9155/50, $0.9120

EUR/JPY

Offers Y144.00, Y143.80, Y143.60

Bids Y142.90, Y142.60, Y142.00, Y141.70/80, Y141.40/50

USD/JPY

Offers Y104.95, Y104.45, Y104.00,

Bids Y103.45, Y103.00, Y102.90, Y102.45, Y102.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8350/60, stg0.8320/25

Bids stg0.8260, stg0.8245, stg0.8210/00, stg0.8180

USD/JPY Y102.00, Y102.30, Y102.35/40, Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.75/80

EUR/JPY Y141.00

EUR/USD $1.3685, $1.3700, $1.3725, $1.3750, $1.3800

EUR/GBP stg0.8300, stg0.8430, stg0.8475

USD/CHF Chf0.8950

USD/CAD C$1.1055, C$1.1100, C$1.1120, C$1.1140, C$1.1150, C$1.1200

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m February +6.8% -1.7% -5.0%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y February +34.6% +23.2%

The dollar rose to the highest level in more than two months against the yen before a private report today that may show stronger U.S. jobs growth. Figures today from the ADP Research Institute may show companies in the U.S. added 195,000 jobs in March after boosting positions by 139,000 the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index probably rose to 53.5 last month from 51.6 in February, the lowest since 2010, analysts in a separate poll predicted. The Tempe, Arizona-based group will release the figures tomorrow.

Economists forecast the Labor Department will say on April 4 U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs jobs in March after boosting positions by 175,000 the previous month.

The yen dropped against the euro as gains in Japanese stocks damped demand for the local currency and before the European Central Bank decides policy tomorrow. ECB policy makers will probably keep the region’s benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25 percent tomorrow, according to all but three of the 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The euro area will probably avoid outright deflation as a “soft” recovery gradually reduces spare capacity in the economy, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said at a press conference in Athens yesterday. An initial estimate on March 31 showed consumer prices in the region gained 0.5 percent last month from a year earlier after rising 0.7 percent in February.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3805

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6620-35

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y103.95

UK construction PMI at 0830GMT the morning focus.