Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 31-03-2014

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.2 50.1     

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY February -0.2% -0.1%     

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 48.5 48.5     

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%     

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement                 

05:30 Australia Commodity Prices, Y/Y March -12.1%         

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI March 57.6 56.7     

07:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 51.9 51.9     

07:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 53.8 53.8     

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change March -14 -9     

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. March 6.8% 6.8%     

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 53.0 53.0     

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing March 56.9 56.7     

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate February 12.0% 12.0%     

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m February +1.4% +0.7%     

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index February +2.6% +2.3%     

12:58 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 55.5 55.9     

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m February +0.1% +0.2%     

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing March 53.2 54.2     

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories March +6.3         

23:30 Japan Monetary Base, y/y March 55.7% 60.2%

The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on a background of comments Janet Yellen . Fed Chairman Yellen , who spoke today at a conference in Chicago, defended the loose monetary policy of the USA , stating that its purpose was to help the economy and the labor market in particular.

Yellen noted that the Fed's commitment to promotion policies is still a necessity, and this situation will continue for some time . She also pointed to the fact that low interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.

The Fed chief has listed a large number of part-time workers , slow wage growth , a large number of workers who do not have full employment , fall in the share of the working population as indicators that the labor market is still in a difficult situation . She also noted that for some Americans the current economic situation was more complicated than in a recession .

Earlier pressure on euro was weak data on inflation in the eurozone, but the comments of the ECB representative Nowotny able to offset this negative.

As it became known , the annual inflation rate in the euro zone fell again in March , beating the average forecast with experts and reaching its lowest level since late 2009. According to a report in the March consumer price index rose by 0.5 % from March 2013 , compared with a gain of 0.7 % a month earlier and rated at 0.6 . Add index more and more away from the target of the European Central Bank , which is set at "a little less than 2% ." The data also showed that the cost of energy in the eurozone fell in March by 2.1 % after declining 2.3% in February. Food, alcohol and tobacco products rose by 1 % after rising 1.5 % the previous month . Core CPI , which excludes vollatilnye elements - such as energy and food - growth slowed to 0.8% from 1.0% in February.

With regard to the Novotny , he said that the recession in the euro area came to an end , and the economic situation in the region has significantly improved , but he still has to deal with their problems . Nowotny , who also heads the Austrian Central Bank , says that in 2014 the Austrian budget deficit will exceed 3 %, but next year will fall below 2%. He noted , however, that it is not a structural deficit.

The yen declined significantly against the U.S. dollar . Recent comments on the Bank of Japan that it was too early to discuss specific exit strategy from quantitative easing weighed on the yen. Now, there are several factors that can support the growth of the pair this week : first, the U.S. was to publish a number of reports that may indicate the recovery of the U.S. economy. This will increase the rate differential gap between the U.S. and Japan , respectively, and press on the yen , and secondly , the global risk sentiment remains unstable, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still a threat to global geopolitics .

Franc rose against the dollar , despite the weak data . The growth was due to the weakening of the U.S. currency , as well as the head of the SNB Jordan comments . He said the Swiss franc is still high, and the minimum level for the pair EUR / CHF - an essential tool for maintaining price stability. Meanwhile, he added that the current exchange rate policy will remain relevant for the Swiss National Bank in the foreseeable future , but do not rule out negative interest rates to maintain proper monetary conditions .

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.00, Y102.30, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.25, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800, $1.3900

AUD/USD $0.9130, $0.9135, $0.9165/70, $0.9230, $0.9300

USD/CAD Cad1.1000

EUR/JPY Y141.75

GBP/USD $1.6550, $1.6615, $1.6750

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m February +0.5% +4.6%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence March 70.8 67.3

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.4% +0.4% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +4.1% +4.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted February +1.7% Revised From +2.5% -0.3% +1.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y February +0.9% +2.0%

06:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%

06:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter IV +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator March 2.03 2.08 1.99

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln February 2.1 2.3 1.7

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals February 77.0 75.0 70.3

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y March +0.7% +0.6% +0.5%

The euro exchange rate against the dollar rose sharply , returning with all previously lost ground. Pressure on the pair had a weak data on inflation in the eurozone, but the comments of the ECB representative Nowotny able to offset this negative.

As it became known , the annual inflation rate in the euro zone fell again in March , beating the average forecast with experts and reaching its lowest level since late 2009. According to a report in the March consumer price index rose by 0.5 % from March 2013 , compared with a gain of 0.7 % a month earlier and rated at 0.6 . Add index more and more away from the target of the European Central Bank , which is set at "a little less than 2% ." The data also showed that the cost of energy in the eurozone fell in March by 2.1 % after declining 2.3% in February. Food, alcohol and tobacco products rose by 1 % after rising 1.5 % the previous month . Core CPI , which excludes vollatilnye elements - such as energy and food - growth slowed to 0.8% from 1.0% in February.

With regard to the Novotny , he said that the recession in the euro area came to an end , and the economic situation in the region has significantly improved , but he still has to deal with their problems . Nowotny , who also heads the Austrian Central Bank , says that in 2014 the Austrian budget deficit will exceed 3 %, but next year will fall below 2%. He noted , however, that it is not a structural deficit.

The yen declined significantly against the U.S. dollar , which is associated with the expectations of today's speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen to be held in Chicago. Recall the last FOMC meeting , Yellen said that ready in 6 months after the reduction of the QE program to begin to raise interest rates . Currently, the program of quantitative easing has been reduced to $ 55 billion next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve will take place April 29-30 .

Recent comments on the Bank of Japan that it was too early to discuss specific exit strategy from quantitative easing also put pressure on the yen. Now, there are several factors that can support the growth of the pair this week : first, the U.S. was to publish a number of reports that may indicate the recovery of the U.S. economy. This will increase the rate differential gap between the U.S. and Japan , respectively, and press on the yen , and secondly , the global risk sentiment remains unstable, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still a threat to global geopolitics .

Franc rose against the dollar , despite the weak data . The growth was due to the weakening of the U.S. currency , as well as the head of the SNB Jordan comments . He said the Swiss franc is still high, and the minimum level for the pair EUR / CHF - an essential tool for maintaining price stability. Meanwhile, he added that the current exchange rate policy will remain relevant for the Swiss National Bank in the foreseeable future , but do not rule out negative interest rates to maintain proper monetary conditions .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3805

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6655

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y103.30

At 12:30 GMT , Canada will report on changes in the volume of GDP in January . At 13:30 GMT the U.S. Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will speak . At 13:45 GMT the U.S. Chicago PMI index will be released in March . At 23:00 GMT Australia will present prices of housing from RPData-Rismark March . At 23:50 GMT , Japan will release the index of activity in the sector of large manufacturers Tankan, the index of non-manufacturing activity in the Tankan index 'Tankan' capital expenditures for large enterprises of all branches of the 1st quarter , as well as the predicted value of the index 'Tankan' for large enterprises the production sector and predictive value of the index 'Tankan' non-manufacturing areas in the 2nd quarter .

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3880, $1.3845/50, $1.3820, $1.3800

Bids $1.3705/00, $1.3694, $1.3650, $1.3640, $1.3630/20

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6785, $1.6715/20, $1.6700, $1.6665

Bids $1.6580, $1.6550, $1.6520, $1.6500

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9350, $0.9300, $0.9275/80

Bids $0.9200, $0.9170, $0.9155/50, $0.9120

EUR/JPY

Offers Y143.00, Y142.60, Y142.20, Y141.95/00

Bids Y141.00/10, Y140.50, Y139.95/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.75, Y103.45, Y103.00/10

Bids Y102.25/35, Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.60, Y101.50, Y101.35/30

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8350, stg0.8325, stg0.8300, stg0.8280

Bids stg0.8245, stg0.8210/00, stg0.8180

USD/JPY Y101.50, Y102.00, Y102.30, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.25, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800, $1.3900

AUD/USD $0.9130, $0.9135, $0.9165/70, $0.9230, $0.9300

USD/CAD Cad1.1000

EUR/JPY Y141.75

GBP/USD $1.6550, $1.6615, $1.6750

EUR/GBP stg0.8300

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m February +0.5% +4.6%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence March 70.8 67.3

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.4% +0.4% +0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +4.1% +4.3%

The euro traded near a one-month low before data today that may show inflation slowed in the currency’s region, boosting bets the European Central Bank will signal stimulus measures at a policy meeting this week. The European Union’s statistics office will probably say in an initial estimate today that consumer prices in the region rose 0.6 percent this month from a year earlier, compared with a 0.7 percent final figure for February, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The dollar approached a two-week high versus the yen before Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks and ahead of figures tomorrow that may show U.S. manufacturing strengthened this month. Yellen is scheduled to deliver remarks at a conference in Chicago today. The U.S. central bank head said this month borrowing costs could rise “around six months” after officials end the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program, which currently stands at $55 billion. The Federal Open Market Committee next meets on April 29-30.

The Australian dollar headed for its best quarterly performance since 2011 against the greenback, with 27 of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting the central bank will refrain from cutting interest rates this year. All expect no change in the cash rate from a record-low 2.5 percent at tomorrow’s meeting.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3740-60

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6625

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y102.80-95