Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 23-04-2014

EUR/USD $1,3816 +0,08%

GBP/USD $1,6779 -0,26%

USD/CHF Chf0,8832 -0,18%

USD/JPY Y102,52 -0,06%

EUR/JPY Y141,64 +0,01%

GBP/JPY Y172,01 -0,33%

AUD/USD $0,9287 -0,82%

NZD/USD $0,8619 +0,14%

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance March 2.62 2.79     

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate April 110.7     110.5     

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment April 115.2 115.7     

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations April 106.4 105.9     

09:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                 

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance April 13 18     

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders March +2.2% +2.1%     

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation March +0.2% +0.6%     

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense March +1.8%         

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims April 304 309     

16:15 Eurozone ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks                 

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y April +1.3%         

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y April +1.0% +2.8%     

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y March +1.5%         

The U.S. dollar recovered a part of its morning losses. A seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales plunged 14.5% to 384,000 units in March. February's figure was revised up to a 449,000 units from the previously reported 440,000 units. The projected value was 450,000 units.

The U.S. flash manufacturing PMI declined to 55.4 in April from 55.5 in March. The projected figure was 56.2.

The euro benefited from the better-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone. Another reason for the increase of the euro was the successful bond auction of Portugal on financial markets. Portugal sold 10-year bonds for 750 million euros ($1.04 billion) at an average yield of 3.58%. In a few weeks, Portugal wants to leave the bailout program.

The Canadian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar. Retail sales dropped in comparison to the previous month. Retail sales rose 0.5% in February (January figure: +0.9%). Retail sales without automobile sales increased 0.6% (January figure: +1.0%)

The Australian dollar declined after the inflation data publication. The increase of the consumer price index was lower than expected in the first quarter. The annual consumer price index increased 2.9% (forecast: 3.2%). The monthly consumer price index rose 0.6% (forecast: 0.6%). The likelihood of interest hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is near to zero in the next months. The Australian dollar was also affected by the worse-than-expected Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary). HSBC Manufacturing PMI was up to 48.3 in April from 48.0 in March. But the figure in April did not exceed the forecast of 48.4.

The British pound declined after the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England's (BoE) April meeting. MPC members were uncertain over economic slack and also held differing views on the outlook for inflation over the medium term. The minutes also showed that MPC members voted to keep interest rates at a record low 0.5%.

The U.S. Census Bureau published today a seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales plunged 14.5% to 384,000 units in March. February's figure was revised up to a 449,000 units from the previously reported 440,000 units. The projected value was 450,000 units. March new home sales reached the lowest level since mid-2013.

The median price of a new home was $290,000 in March 2014. It is the highest level ever in March.

The U.S. housing market recovery suffered setback. Yesterday’s publication has shown that March existing-home sales in the USA also declined in comparison to the previous month. But the figure was better than expected by analysts.

The reason for this decline in the U.S. housing market is an unusually cold winter, higher mortgage interest rates and a shortage of properties.

01:30    Australia                             CPI, q/q                                            Quarter I             +0.8%  +0.8%   +0.6%

01:30    Australia                             CPI, y/y                                             Quarter I             +2.7%  +3.2%   +2.9%

01:45     China                                 HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)     April                    48.0      48.4       48.3

06:58    France                               Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)              April                    52.1      51.9       50.9

06:58    France                               Services PMI (Preliminary)                      April                    51.5      51.5       50.3

07:28    Germany                            Manufacturing PMI      (Preliminary)         April                    53.7      53.9       54.2

07:28    Germany                            Services PMI   (Preliminary)                    April                     53.0      53.5       52.0

07:58    Eurozone                            Manufacturing PMI      (Preliminary)        April                     53.0      53.0       53.3

07:58    Eurozone                            Services PMI   (Preliminary)                    April                    52.2      52.7       53.1

08:30    United Kingdom                   Bank of England Minutes                                                         

08:30    United Kingdom                   PSNB, bln                                           March                   7.5         8.7          4.9

10:00    United Kingdom                   CBI industrial order books balance           April                      6            7             -1

12:30    Canada                               Retail Sales, m/m                                 February             +1.3%  +0.5%   +0.5%

12:30    Canada                               Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m                    February             +1.0%  +0.6%   +0.6%

The euro strengthened after the flash manufacturing PMI publication in the Eurozone. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) of the Eurozone increased to 53.3 in April from 53.0 in March. It means that the Eurozone economy is continuing to recover.

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies ahead the publication of the real estate sector data.

The British pound declined after the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England's (BoE) April meeting. MPC members were uncertain over economic slack and also held differing views on the outlook for inflation over the medium term. The minutes also showed that MPC members voted to keep interest rates at a record low 0.5%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose

GBP/USD: the currency pair was down

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined

The most important news that are expected:

13:43    U.S.                       Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)     April      55.5      56.2      

14:00    U.S.                       New Home Sales                         March   440        455                     

21:00    New Zealand           RBNZ Interest Rate Decision                     2.75%   3.00%   

21:00    New Zealand           RBNZ Rate Statement                                                

23:50    Japan                     CSPI, y/y                                    March   +0.7%  +0.8%

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3900

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.30/35, Y103.50

USD/CHF Chf0.8800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225

AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9320, $0.9360, $0.9375

AUD/NZD NZ$ 1.0800

USD/CAD C$1.0950, C$1.1055, C$1.1100, C$1.1160

Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) of the Eurozone published by research group Markit increased to 53.3 in April from 53.0 in March. The projected figure was 53.0. Germany’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.2 in April from 53.7 in March, exceeding forecast of 53.9. The French manufacturing PMI was down to 50.9 in April from 52.1 in March. The forecast was 51.9.

These figures show that the Eurozone economic activity is recovering. But there is a disappointment about the French figures.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3950, $1.3930, $1.3910/15, $1.3900, $1.3880-85, $1.3860/65

Bids $1.3825/20, $1.3785/80

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6900, $1.6870/80, $1.6840/50

Bids  $1.6785/80, $1.6770-60, $1.6680

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9395/00, $0.9350,  $0.9300/10

Bids  $0.9250, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.00

Bids  Y141.20, Y141.00

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.95/00, Y102.65/70, Y102.45/50

Bids  Y102.00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8330/35, stg0.8241

Bids  stg0.8190-80, stg0.8150

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30     Australia                      CPI, y/y                                                      Quarter I             +2.7%   +3.2%   +2.9%

01:45     China                          HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)     April                    48.0          48.4      48.3

06:58     France                        Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)                April                    52.1       51.9      50.9

06:58     France                        Services PMI (Preliminary)                        April                     51.5       51.5      50.3

07:28     Germany                     Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)               April                     53.7          53.9      54.2

07:28     Germany                     Services PMI (Preliminary)                        April                     53.0          53.5      52.0

07:58     Eurozone                    Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)                April                     53.0          53.0      53.3

The U.S. dollar traded mixed. Market participants already priced in the better-than-expected figures from the U.S. housing market.

The Australian dollar declined after the inflation data publication. The increase of the consumer price index was lower than expected in the first quarter. The annual consumer price index increased 2.9% (forecast: 3.2%). The monthly consumer price index rose 0.6% (forecast: 0.6%). The likelihood of interest hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is near to zero in the next months.

The Australian dollar was also affected by the worse-than-expected Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary). HSBC Manufacturing PMI was up to 48.3 in April from 48.0 in March. But the figure in April did not exceed the forecast of 48.4.

The New Zealand dollar was down affected by the worse-than-expected Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary). China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner. Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its interest rate and its rate statement. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand could increase interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%.

The Japanese Yen climbed against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He said that the inflation target of 2% could be reached and there is no need for further quantitative stimulus measures. Market participants are waiting for developments in US-Japan free trade talks.

EUR/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.3820

GBP/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.6835

USD/JPY: the currency pair was down Y102.50

08:30    United Kingdom               Bank of England Minutes                                                         

08:30    United Kingdom               PSNB, bln                                                March                   7.5          8.7         

10:00    United Kingdom               CBI industrial order books balance          April                       6             7            

12:30    Canada                            Retail Sales, m/m                                    February             +1.3%   +0.5%  

12:30    Canada                            Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m                     February             +1.0%   +0.6%  

13:43    U.S.                                  Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)             April                       55.5       56.2      

14:00    U.S.                                  New Home Sales                                    March                   440         455                       

21:00    New Zealand                    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision                                              2.75%    3.00%   

21:00    New Zealand                    RBNZ Rate Statement

EUR/USD $1.3800, $1.3900

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y102.30/35, Y103.50

USD/CHF Chf0.8800

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225

AUD/NZD $0.9250, $0.9320, $0.9360, $0.9375

AUD/NZD NZ$ 1.0800

USD/CAD C$1.0950, C$1.1055, C$1.1100, C$1.1160