Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 24-04-2014

EUR/USD $1,3831 +0,11%

GBP/USD $1,6800 +0,13%

USD/CHF Chf0,8815 -0,19%

USD/JPY Y102,27 -0,24%

EUR/JPY Y141,45 -0,13%

GBP/JPY Y171,80 -0,12%

AUD/USD $0,9262 -0,27%

NZD/USD $0,8565 -0,63%

00:00 Australia Bank holiday                 

00:00 New Zealand     Bank holiday                 

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m February +1.0% -0.5%     

08:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks                 

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March +1.7% -0.4%     

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March +3.7% +3.8%     

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals March 47.6 48.9     

13:43 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) April 55.3 56.2     

The U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.6% in March from 2.2% in February. It is the highest increase since November 2013. The projected figure was 2.2%. Durable goods orders in February were revised down to a 2.1% from 2.2%.

Durable goods orders excluding transportation climbed 2.0% in March from 0.2% in February. Analysts forecasted the increase of 0.6%.

The number of initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 329,000 for the week ended April 19. The number of people still receiving benefits declined 61,000 to 2.68 million in the week ended April 12. This is the lowest level since December 2007. It is a good omen that the unemployment rate could drop in April. The unemployment rate in March was 6.7%.

EUR/USD $1.3775, $1.3785, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3860, $1.3900

USD/JPY Y101.95-102.00, Y102.05-10, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.50

EUR/JPY Y140.95

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stgt0.8295-0.8300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2150, Chf1.2250-60

USD/CAD C$1.1090

Economic calendar:

06:00    Switzerland        Trade Balance                      March    2.62      2.79       2.05

08:00    Germany            IFO - Business Climate           April      110.7    110.5     111.2

08:00    Germany            IFO - Current Assessment      April      115.2    115.7     115.3

08:00    Germany            IFO - Expectations                April      106.4    105.9     107.3

09:00    Eurozone             ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                                                     

10:00    United Kingdom    CBI retail sales volume balance    April        13          18           30

The euro traded mixed. The euro was supported by German IFO business climate. The index climbed to 111.2 in April from 110.7 in March. The projected figure was 110.5 points. But later, the Eurozone currency declined after the speech of the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. Mario Draghi said that the central bank could trigger new quantitative stimulus measures to combating the threat of deflation and the credit crunch. A strong euro could also be a reason for additional action.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the most major currencies ahead the publication of unemployment claims and core durable goods orders.

The British pound climbed a little against the U.S. dollar. The better-than-expected CBI retail sales volume balance figure supported the British currency. The CBI retail sales index rose to 30 in April from 13 in March. Analysts forecasted the increase to 18.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed a little

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30  U.S.                          Durable Goods Orders                                 March  +2.2% +2.1%

12:30  U.S.                          Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation     March  +0.2% +0.6%

12:30  U.S.                          Durable goods orders ex defense                 March  +1.8%           

12:30  U.S.                          Initial Jobless Claims                                     April     304     309    

16:15  Eurozone                 ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks                                           

23:30  Japan                      Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y                  April     +1.3%           

23:30  Japan                      Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y                       April     +1.0% +2.8%

23:30  Japan                       National Consumer Price Index, y/y              March  +1.5%           

23:30  Japan                       National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y                   March  +1.3% +1.4%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3900, $1.3880-85, $1.3860/65

Bids  $1.3785/75, $1.3765/60, $1.3705/00

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6900, $1.6870/80, $1.6840/50

Bids  $1.6765-60, $1.6750/45, $1.6680

AUD/USD

Offers  $0.9395/00, $0.9350,  $0.9305/10

Bids  $0.9250, $0.9220, $0.9200

EUR/JPY

Offers  Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.00

Bids  Y141.20, Y141.00

USD/JPY

Offers  Y102.95/00, Y102.65/70

Bids  Y102.25/20, Y102.00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8330/35

Bids  stg0.8190-80, stg0.8150

EUR/USD $1.3775, $1.3785, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3860, $1.3900

USD/JPY Y101.95-102.00, Y102.05-10, Y102.25, Y102.50, Y103.00, Y103.50

EUR/JPY Y140.95

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stgt0.8295-0.8300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2150, Chf1.2250-60

USD/CAD C$1.1090

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00    Switzerland        Trade Balance                      March    2.62      2.79       2.05

08:00    Germany            IFO - Business Climate           April      110.7    110.5     111.2

08:00    Germany            IFO - Current Assessment      April      115.2    115.7     115.3

08:00    Germany            IFO - Expectations                April      106.4    105.9     107.3

The U.S. dollar was weaker against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency remains under pressure after the yesterday’s disappointing figures from the U.S. housing market.

The Australian dollar climbed a little against the U.S. dollar. There were no impulses (the lack of economic data) that could influence the currency.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar and reached a one-week high of $0.8638. The reason for the strength of New Zealand dollar was the hike of interest rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The central bank raised its interest rate to 3.0% from 2.75%. This decision was expected by market participants. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Graeme Wheeler said this move is necessary because of the inflationary pressures. The likelihood is very high that the central bank will hike interest rates again in June.

The Japanese Yen was up against the U.S. dollar after the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that a US-Japan free trade deal had not been finalised yet.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.3825

GBP/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.6790

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.25

NZD/USD: the currency pair increased to $0.8638

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00  Eurozone                  ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                                    

10:00  United Kingdom        CBI retail sales volume balance                    April     13       18       

12:30  U.S.                          Durable Goods Orders                                 March  +2.2% +2.1% 

12:30  U.S.                          Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation     March  +0.2% +0.6% 

12:30  U.S.                          Durable goods orders ex defense                 March  +1.8%            

12:30  U.S.                          Initial Jobless Claims                                     April     304     309     

16:15  Eurozone                 ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks                                           

23:30  Japan                      Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y                  April     +1.3%            

23:30  Japan                      Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y                       April     +1.0% +2.8% 

23:30  Japan                       National Consumer Price Index, y/y              March  +1.5%            

23:30  Japan                       National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y                   March  +1.3% +1.4%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3900 (2181)

$1.3875 (1549)

$1.3857 (1167)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3823

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3795 (114)

$1.3764 (859)

$1.3739 (1505)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 25944  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (2871);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 32182 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (3902);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.23 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 23.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7001 (1262)

$1.6902 (1613)

$1.6806 (1713)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6785

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6696 (777)

$1.6598 (1300)

$1.6499 (1228)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 16873 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (1713);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 19331 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1870);

- Theratio of PUT/CALLwas 1.15 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 23.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.