Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 28-04-2014

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey May 8.5 8.5

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y March +1.3% +1.4%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.7% +0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I +2.7% +3.2%

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) April +0.3% -0.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) April +1.0% +1.3%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y March +13.2% +12.9%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence April 82.3 82.9

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories April +0.5

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m March -1.7%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence April -5 -4

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI April 53.9

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) March -2.3% +0.6%

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro increased against the U.S. dollar caused by market participants hope that the Eurozone inflation will be higher in this month. The report on euro zone inflation will be published on Wednesday. German import prices declined 0.6% in March. The projected figure was 0.0%. But later, the euro lost a part of its gains due to the better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales. U.S. pending sales of existing homes climbed 3.4% in March from February. It is the first increase for the first time in nine months. Analysts forecasted the increase of 1.0%.

The U.S. dollar recovered a part of its losses against the most major currencies after the publication of better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales.

The British pound was supported by expectations that the Bank of England could hike interest rates in the next year. Additionally, the potential AstraZeneca deal had a positive influence on the British pound. The British currency dropped after the National Association of Realtors published that the U.S. pending sales of existing homes climbed 3.4% in March from February.

The Japanese yen dropped against the U.S. dollar. The reason for the weak yen were the expectations of easing tensions in the Ukraine imposing new US sanctions on Russia.

The New Zealand dollar declined against the U.S. dollar. NZD/USD declined toward the low of April 04, 2014.

The National Association of Realtors published on Monday that the U.S. pending sales of existing homes climbed 3.4% in March from February. It is the first increase for the first time in nine months. Analysts forecasted the increase of 1.0%.

The National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that after a cold winter, more buyers want to purchase homes are beginning to make contract offers. He added sales activity is expected to improve as more inventory reaches the market and as more jobs will be created in the economy.

EUR/USD $1.3680, $1.3700, $1.3765, $1.3775, $1.3900, $1.3960

USD/JPY Y102.20, Y102.50, Y102.70, Y103.00, Y103.30

AUD/USD $0.9225

GBP/USD $1.6630

USD/CAD Cad1.1055, Cad1.1080, Cad1.1165

USD/CHF Chf0.8825

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8250, stg0.8270

NZD/USD NZ$0.8500, NZ$0.8740

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3950, $1.3930, $1.3900, $1.3880-85, $1.3860/65

Bids $1.3800, $1.3785/75, $1.3765/60

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6900, $1.6870/80, $1.6840/50

Bids $1.6765-60, $1.6750/45, $1.6680

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9395/00, $0.9350,  $0.9315/20

Bids $0.9250, $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9155/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.90/00, Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.00

Bids Y141.00, Y140.40/50, Y139.95/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.95/00, Y102.65/70, Y102.50

Bids Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.30, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8300/10, stg0.8280, stg0.8250

Bids stg0.8190-80, stg0.8150, stg0.8100

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00    Germany                            Import prices                 March   -0.1%   0.0%      -0.6%

06:00    Germany                            Import prices Y/Y           March   -2.7%   -2.8%    -3.3%

08:00    Eurozone                           ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks

The euro increased against the U.S. dollar. Market participants hope that the Eurozone inflation will be higher in this month. The report on euro zone inflation will be published on Wednesday. German import prices declined 0.6% in March. The projected figure was 0.0%.

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and the British pound ahead the publication of pending home sales. Analysts forecasted the increase 1.0%. The British currency was supported by expectations that the Bank of England could hike interest rates in the next year. Additionally, the potential AstraZeneca deal had a positive influence on the British pound.

EUR/USD: the currency pair has reached 1.3879

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to 1.6853

USD/JPY: the currency pair has reached Y102.39

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    U.S.                       Pending Home Sales (MoM)     March   -0.8%   +1.0% 

14:30    Eurozone                ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                                                    

22:45    New Zealand           Trade Balance, mln                 March   818        910

EUR/USD $1.3680, $1.3700, $1.3765, $1.3775, $1.3900, $1.3960

USD/JPY Y102.20, Y102.50, Y102.70, Y103.00, Y103.30

AUD/USD $0.9225

GBP/USD $1.6630

USD/CAD Cad1.1055, Cad1.1080, Cad1.1165

USD/CHF Chf0.8825

EUR/GBP stg0.8200, stg0.8250, stg0.8270

NZD/USD NZ$0.8500, NZ$0.8740

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00    Germany                            Import prices                 March   -0.1%   0.0%      -0.6%

06:00    Germany                            Import prices Y/Y           March   -2.7%   -2.8%    -3.3%

08:00    Eurozone                           ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks

The U.S. dollar declined against the most major currencies. Market participants are concerned over tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Due to lack of economic data, there were no impulses.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar, although the U.S. dollar was supported by Friday’s better-than-expected Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The Japanese yen was supported by the demand for the safe-haven currency.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3815

GBP/USD: the currency pair was down to $1.6775

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00    U.S.                       Pending Home Sales (MoM)     March   -0.8%   +1.0%  

14:30    Eurozone                ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks                                                     

22:45    New Zealand           Trade Balance, mln                 March   818        910

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3933 (2313)

$1.3903 (2143)

$1.3865 (1152)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3823

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3801 (342)

$1.3753 (1547)

$1.3719 (1839)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 26197  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (3166);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 32520 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (3834);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 25.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1264)

$1.7001 (1268)

$1.6902 (1611)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6785

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (782)

$1.6599 (1326)

$1.6500 (1226)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 16933 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (1773);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 19415 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);;

- Theratio of PUT/CALLwas 1.15 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 25.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.