Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 30-04-2014

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:00 France Bank holiday

00:00 Germany Bank Holiday

00:00 Switzerland Bank holiday

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI April 50.3 50.5

01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter I -0.6% +1.9%

01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter I -0.5% +1.5%

06:30 Australia RBA Annual Report April -12.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing April 55.3 55.5

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln April 2.3 2.3

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals March 70.3 73.0

09:00 Eurozone European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts April

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims April 329 317

12:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m March +0.3% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending March +0.3% +0.7%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m March +0.1% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y March +1.1%

12:58 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) April 55.4 55.8

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m March +0.1% +0.8%

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing April 53.7 54.3

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate March 3.6% 3.6%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y March -2.5% +1.7%

23:50 Japan Monetary Base, y/y April +54.8% +55.3%

The euro traded jumped against the U.S. dollar due to the growth of inflation in the Eurozone and the slowdown of the U.S. economy. The inflation in the Eurozone in April was better than in the previous month. The harmonised consumer price index climbed 0.7% in April (March: 0.5%). Analysts expected a rise of 0.8%.

The U.S. dollar dropped against the most major currencies. The U.S. dollar was support by the better-than-expected non-farm private employment. According to ADP Employment Report, the U.S. non-farm private employment rose by 220,000 in April. Analysts forecasted the increase of 210,000. March’s figure was revised up to 209,000 from 191,000. It is the strongest private-sector jobs growth in five months. These figures show a strengthening of labour market that was affected by the cold winter. But the growth of the U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter. U.S. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1% in the first quarter. This slow growth is a result of a cold winter in the USA. The U.S. economy climbed 2.6% in the previous quarter. Analysts forecasted the increase of 1.1%.

The British pound climbed to a four-year high against the U.S. dollar after the publication of a slowdown of the U.S. economy while U.K. consumer confidence increased.

The Japanese yen was up against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to refrain from implementing additional quantitative stimulus measures. The Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy steady as expected. The target of an annual increase in the monetary base is between 60 trillion yen and 70 trillion yen. A stagnation of U.S. economic growth also supported Japan’s currency.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Canadian GDP declined to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January. Analysts forecasted a rise of 0.2%.

According to ADP Employment Report, the U.S. non-farm private employment rose by 220,000 in April. Analysts forecasted the increase of 210,000. March’s figure was revised up to 209,000 from 191,000. It is the strongest private-sector jobs growth in five months. These figures show a strengthening of labour market that was affected by the cold winter.

EUR/USD $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3785, $1.3840

USD/JPY Y101.40, Y101.65, Y102.20/25, Y102.40, Y102.50, Y102.65, Y102.75/80, Y103.00, Y103.50

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9240, $0.9250, $0.9270, $0.9300, $0.9375

GBP/USD $1.6710

USD/CAD Cad1.0935, Cad1.0960, Cad1.1000, Cad1.1030, Cad1.1075

EUR/CHF Chf1.2190, Chf1.2275

EUR/JPY Y141.35, Y142.00

USD/CHF Chf0.8735, Chf0.8945

U.S. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1% in the first quarter. This slow growth is a result of a cold winter in the USA. The U.S. economy climbed 2.6% in the previous quarter. Analysts forecasted the increase of 1.1%.

U.S. exports dropped 7.6% in the first quarter, the largest decrease since the end of recession. This figure shows that demand for U.S. goods and services in Europe and Asia is decreasing. Imports declined 1.4%. This figure reflects weaker consumer demand for foreign goods.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    New Zealand    ANZ Business Confidence                     April      67.3                                                         64.8

01:30    Australia           Private Sector Credit, m/m                  March   +0.4%                                   +0.4%     +0.4%

01:30    Australia           Private Sector Credit, y/y                    March   +4.3%                                                    +4.4%

01:30    Japan              Labor Cash Earnings, YoY                    March   -0.1%   Revised From 0.0%   +0.2%      +0.7%

03:00    Japan              BoJ Interest Rate Decision                               0.10%                                       0.10%     0.10%

03:00    Japan              Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target                 270                                          270         270

03:00    Japan              BoJ Monetary Policy Statement                                                           

05:00    Japan              Housing Starts, y/y                              March   +1.0%                                    -2.8%       -2.9%

06:00    Germany         Retail sales, real adjusted                      March   +0.4%  Revised From +1.3%  -0.5%      -0.7%

06:00    Germany         Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y           March   +1.9%  Revised From +2.0%                  -1.9%

06:00    Japan              BoJ monthly economic report               April                                    

06:00    Switzerland      UBS Consumption Indicator                  March   1.52      Revised From 1.57                       1.84

06:45    France            Consumer spending                              March   +0.1%                                     +0.3%      +0.4%

06:45    France            Consumer spending, y/y                       March   -0.3%                                                       -1.2%

07:00    Switzerland     KOF Leading Indicator                           April      1.99                                          2.03         1.84

07:30    Japan             BOJ Press Conference                                              

07:55    Germany        Unemployment Change                         April      -12                                           -10           -25

07:55    Germany        Unemployment Rate s.a.                       April      6.7%                                        6.7%        6.7%

09:00    Eurozone         Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary)        April      +0.5%                                     +0.8%       +0.7%

The euro jumped against the U.S. dollar. The euro was supported by the Eurozone’s inflation report. The inflation in the Eurozone in April was better than in the previous month. The harmonised consumer price index climbed 0.7% in April (March: 0.5%). Analysts expected a rise of 0.8%.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the publication of ADP employment report and U.S. GDP. Market participants are waiting that the U.S. employment should increase by 212,000. The rise of U.S. GDP should drop to 1.1% in the first quarter from an increase 2.6% in the previous quarter.

EUR/USD: the currency pair climbed to 1.3857

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:15    U.S.                        ADP Employment Report                 April                     191        212       

12:30    Canada                   Raw Material Price Index                  March                 +5.7%  +1.2% 

12:30    Canada                   GDP (m/m)                                     February             +0.5%  +0.2% 

12:30    U.S.                       PCE price index, q/q                         Quarter I             +3.3%                

12:30    U.S.                       PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I             +1.3%                

12:30    U.S.                       Employment Cost Index                   Quarter I             +0.5%  +0.5% 

12:30    U.S.                       GDP, q/q (Preliminary)                      Quarter I             +2.6%  +1.1% 

13:45    U.S.                       Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index                              55.9      56.6     

15:30    United Kingdom     BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks                                                     

18:00    U.S.                       Fed Interest Rate Decision                                          0.25%   0.25%  

18:00    U.S.                       FOMC QE Decision                                                        55          45         

18:00    U.S.                       FOMC Statement                                                         

20:15    Canada                  BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3950, $1.3930, $1.3900, $1.3880/85, $1.38835/40

Bids $1.3785/75, $1.3765/60, $1.3735, $1.3700

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6900, $1.6870/80, $1.6850/60

Bids $1.6775, $1.6765-60, $1.6750/45, $1.6680

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9395/00, $0.9350,  $0.9315/20, $0.9300

Bids $0.9260, $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9155/50, $0.9100

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.90/00, Y142.80, Y142.50, Y142.00, Y141.60

Bids Y141.00, Y140.40/50, Y139.95/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.40, Y102.95/00, Y102.70/80

Bids Y102.00, Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.30, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8390/00, stg0.8330, stg0.8300/10, stg0.8280

Bids stg0.8190/80, stg0.8150, stg0.8100

German unemployment declined by 25,000 in April. Analysts forecasted the decrease of 10,000. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% in April. This figure was expected. The economic data underscore the strength of Germany's economy.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today:

- The negative impact of the tax increase in April is within expectations;

- Three of the BOJ's nine board members do not believe that Japan’s inflation will reach 2% around fiscal 2015 from just over 1% now;

- He expects that the inflation will reach the 2% target, but he said nothing about the time period;

- He repeated that Japan’s central bank will implement additional stimulus measures if needed.

The Fed will announce the results of the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today. Market participants do not expect any surprises. The Fed will keep unchanged interest rates and will taper its asset purchase program at the usual rate of US$10 billion per month to US$45 billion per month.

Recently, there is a slowdown in the U.S. housing market. Building Permits could not exceed 1 million permits, while new home sales has been declining for two consecutive months (fell to 384,000 in March).Existing home sales has been decreasing for seven consecutive months (declined to 4.59 million in March). Nonetheless, the U.S. economy is continuing to grow. It is sufficient reason for Fed to continue tapering its asset purchase program. The fact of the economic activity growth has been noted in the Fed's "Beige Book", published last week.

The recent comments of FOMC members support the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchase program. In particular, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he did not see any reason not to continue tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program. Earlier, Fischer expressed confidence that the QE (Quantitative Easing) will be completed in October. This opinion is also shared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart. On the other side, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the tapering of asset purchase program should be adapted to the economic situation. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota supports the 10 billion U.S. dollar tapering of asset purchase program.

At the same time, some Fed members expressed concerns about declining inflation. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said it is possible to stop tapering of QE program if inflation will slow down. But Bullard is not a voting member of the FOMC in this year.

EUR/USD $1.3720, $1.3750, $1.3785, $1.3840

USD/JPY Y101.40, Y101.65, Y102.20/25, Y102.40, Y102.50, Y102.65, Y102.75/80, Y103.00, Y103.50

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9240, $0.9250, $0.9270, $0.9300, $0.9375

GBP/USD $1.6710

USD/CAD Cad1.0935, Cad1.0960, Cad1.1000, Cad1.1030, Cad1.1075

EUR/CHF Chf1.2190, Chf1.2275

EUR/JPY Y141.35, Y142.00

USD/CHF Chf0.8735, Chf0.8945

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:00    New Zealand    ANZ Business Confidence                     April      67.3                                                         64.8

01:30    Australia           Private Sector Credit, m/m                  March   +0.4%                                   +0.4%     +0.4%

01:30    Australia           Private Sector Credit, y/y                    March   +4.3%                                                    +4.4%

01:30    Japan              Labor Cash Earnings, YoY                    March   -0.1%   Revised From 0.0%   +0.2%      +0.7%

03:00    Japan              BoJ Interest Rate Decision                               0.10%                                       0.10%     0.10%

03:00    Japan              Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target                 270                                          270         270

03:00    Japan              BoJ Monetary Policy Statement                                                            

05:00    Japan              Housing Starts, y/y                              March   +1.0%                                    -2.8%       -2.9%

06:00    Germany         Retail sales, real adjusted                      March   +0.4%  Revised From +1.3%  -0.5%      -0.7%

06:00    Germany         Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y           March   +1.9%  Revised From +2.0%                  -1.9%

06:00    Japan              BoJ monthly economic report               April                                     

06:00    Switzerland      UBS Consumption Indicator                  March   1.52      Revised From 1.57                       1.84

06:45    France            Consumer spending                              March   +0.1%                                     +0.3%      +0.4%

06:45    France            Consumer spending, y/y                       March   -0.3%                                                       -1.2%

07:00    Switzerland     KOF Leading Indicator                           April      1.99                                          2.03         1.84

07:30    Japan             BOJ Press Conference                                               

07:55    Germany        Unemployment Change                         April      -12                                           -10           -25

07:55    Germany        Unemployment Rate s.a.                       April      6.7%                                        6.7%        6.7%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the Fed's policy statement. Market participants are expecting the Fed will continue to taper its asset purchase program at the usual rate of US$10 billion per month. 

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S. dollar after the publication of mixed economic data and ahead the Fed's policy statement. Building permits in New Zealand climbed 8.3% in March (February: -1.6%). The projected figure was a 2% rise. ANZ Business Confidence was down to 64.8 in April from 67.3 in March.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar ahead the Fed's policy statement. The price development of iron ore is important for the Australian currency. Iron ore is Australia’s biggest export.

Australia’s private sector credit increased 0.4% in March (February: 0.4%). Analysts expected the rise of 0.4%.

The Japanese yen was up against the U.S. dollar. The yen was supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to refrain from implementing additional quantitative stimulus measures. The Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy steady as expected. The target of an annual increase in the monetary base is between 60 trillion yen and 70 trillion yen.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3805

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded was down to Y102.30

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00    Eurozone                Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary)     April                    +0.5%  +0.8%  

12:15    U.S.                        ADP Employment Report                 April                     191        212        

12:30    Canada                   Raw Material Price Index                  March                 +5.7%  +1.2%  

12:30    Canada                   GDP (m/m)                                     February             +0.5%  +0.2%  

12:30    U.S.                       PCE price index, q/q                         Quarter I             +3.3%                 

12:30    U.S.                       PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I             +1.3%                 

12:30    U.S.                       Employment Cost Index                   Quarter I             +0.5%  +0.5%  

12:30    U.S.                       GDP, q/q (Preliminary)                      Quarter I             +2.6%  +1.1%  

13:45    U.S.                       Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index                              55.9      56.6      

15:30    United Kingdom     BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks                                                      

18:00    U.S.                       Fed Interest Rate Decision                                          0.25%   0.25%   

18:00    U.S.                       FOMC QE Decision                                                        55          45          

18:00    U.S.                       FOMC Statement                                                         

20:15    Canada                  BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3894 (2253)

$1.3868 (1405)

$1.3835 (714)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3805

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3765 (1082)

$1.3741 (1627)

$1.3710 (2027)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is 26212  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (3187);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 32595 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3600 (3991);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.24 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 29.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1365)

$1.7001 (1101)

$1.6903 (1633)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6820

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6795 (1141)

$1.6698 (948)

$1.6599 (1321)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 9 is  16785 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (1757);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date May, 9 is 19813 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6200 (1869);

- Theratio of PUT/CALLwas 1.18 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 29.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3811 -0,28%

GBP/USD $1,6826 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,8835 +0,37%

USD/JPY Y102,65 +0,17%

EUR/JPY Y141,77 -0,12%

GBP/JPY Y172,72 +0,27%

AUD/USD $0,9267 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,8548 +0,13%

USD/CAD C$1,0963 -0,58%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence April 67.3       

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m March +0.4% +0.4%     

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y March +4.3%       

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY March -0.1% [Revised From 0.0%] +0.2%     

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision     0.10% 0.10%     

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270     

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement               

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y March +1.0% -2.8%     

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted March +1.3% -0.5%     

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y March +2.0%       

06:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report April           

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator March 1.57       

06:45 France Consumer spending March +0.1% +0.3%     

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y March -0.3%       

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator April 1.99 2.03     

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference           

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change April -12 -10     

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. April 6.7% 6.7%     

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y April +0.5% +0.8%     

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report April 191 212     

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m March +1.0%       

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index March +5.7% +1.2%     

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) February +0.5% +0.2%     

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter I +3.3%       

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I +1.3%       

12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter I +0.5% +0.5%     

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +2.6% +1.1%     

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index August 55.9 56.6     

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories April +3.5       

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%     

18:00 U.S. FOMC QE Decision 55       

18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement               

23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index April 47.9