Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 29-04-2014

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29.04.2014

16:03

Foreign exchange market. American session: the euro traded dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the worse-than-expected German CPI

The euro traded dropped against the U.S. dollar due to the worse-than-expected German CPI. German CPI decreased 0.2% in April (March: +0.3%). Analysts forecasted the decline of 0.1%. The euro was also affected by the weak M3 money supply. M3 money supply in the Eurozone increased 1.1% in March (February: 1.3%). Analysts forecasted the rise of 1.4%.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index climbed at an annual rate of 12.9% in February. Analysts forecasted the rise of 13.0%. The growth in January was 13.2%. The U.S. consumer confidence declined to 82.3 in April. Analyst forecasted 82.9. March’s figure was revised up to 83.9 from 83.2.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The UK economy is continuing to grow, but the growth was weaker than expected. The GDP was up 0.8% in the first quarter. The annual rate of growth increased to 3.1%. It is fastest rate of annual growth since the fourth quarter of 2007. The projected quarterly rate was 0.9% and an annual growth of 3.2%.

The Japanese yen dropped against the most major currency due to the falling demand for the safe-haven currency. Market participants are waiting for monetary policy statements by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The Canadian dollar climbed against most major currencies ahead the publication of economic data later in the week.

The New Zealand dollar was down against the U.S. dollar and has reached a three-and-a-half week low on Tuesday. But later, New Zealand’s currency recovered a part of its losses. The weaker-than-expected trade surplus and the better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales had a negative impact on the New Zealand’s currency. New Zealand's trade surplus increased to NZ$920 million in March. But the figure in February was revised down to NZ$793 million from NZ$818 million. The projected trade surplus was NZ$937 million.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar due to the fall in iron-ore prices and due to the better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales. But later, Australia’s currency recovered a part of its losses.

15:17

U.S. consumer confidence declined in April

The Conference Board published the U.S. consumer confidence today. The consumer confidence declined to 82.3 in April. Analyst forecasted 82.9. March’s figure was revised up to 83.9 from 83.2.

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board commented the current figures: “Consumer confidence declined slightly in April, as consumers assessed current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in March”

14:00

U.S.: Consumer confidence , April 82.3 (forecast 82.9)

13:57

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index increased lower than expected

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index climbed at an annual rate of 12.9% in February. Analysts forecasted the rise of 13.0%. The growth in January was 13.2%.

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the annual rate "cooled the most we've seen in some time."

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3785

USD/JPY Y102.20/25, Y102.40/50, Y102.65, Y102.75, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.75

AUD/USD $0.9225, $0.9240, $0.9250, $0.9265/70, $0.9290, $0.9300, $0.9373

GBP/USD $1.6710

USD/CAD Cad1.0960, Cad1.1000, Cad1.1075/80, Cad1.1155

EUR/CAF Chf1.2100, Chf1.2190, Chf1.2275

EUR/GBP stg0.8250

13:00

U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y, March +12.9% (forecast +12.9%)

12:15

Foreign exchange market. European session: the U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the publication of S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices and U.S. consumer confidence figures

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey May 8.5 8.5 8.5

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y March +1.3% +1.4% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.7% +0.9% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I +2.7% +3.2% +3.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) April +0.3% -0.1% -0.2%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) April +1.0% +1.3% +1.1%

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. M3 money supply in the Eurozone increased 1.1% in March (February: 1.3%). Analysts forecasted the rise of 1.4%.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the publication of S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices and U.S. consumer confidence figures.

The Japanese yen dropped against the most major currency due to the falling demand for the safe-haven currency.

The Canadian dollar climbed against most major currencies.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair has reached Y102.78

USD/CAD: the currency pair has reached $1.0964

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y March +13.2% +12.9%

14:00 United Kingdom BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence April 82.3 82.9

19:30 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m March -1.7%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence April -5 -4

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI April 53.9

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) March -2.3% +0.6%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) March +7.0%

12:01

Germany: CPI, y/y , April +1.3% (forecast +1.3%)

12:00

Germany: CPI, m/m, April -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)

10:17

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney sees early signs of sustainable recovery

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said today:

- The U.K. economy recovery is starting to “broaden”;

- There are early signs of sustainable recovery;

- UK central bank sees longer-term growth;

- BoE sees plenty of slack in the labor market.

10:10

The UK economy is continuing to grow

The Office of National Statistics published that the GDP was up 0.8% in the first quarter. The annual rate of growth increased to 3.1%. It is fastest rate of annual growth since the fourth quarter of 2007. The projected quarterly rate was 0.9% and an annual growth of 3.2%.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said today that the U.K. recovery is starting to “broaden” and there are early signs of sustainable recovery. Market participants are expecting the hike of interest rates in the next year.

The Office of National Statistics Chief Economist Joe Grice said that the economy is now only 0.6% below the pre-recession peak at the beginning of 2008. He added services are now 2% above the pre-recession peak but the production and construction sectors are still around 12% lower.

09:32

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3750, $1.3785

USD/JPY Y102.20/25, Y102.40/50, Y102.65, Y102.75, Y102.80, Y103.00, Y103.75

AUD/USD $0.9225, $0.9240, $0.9250, $0.9265/70, $0.9290, $0.9300, $0.9373

GBP/USD $1.6710

USD/CAD Cad1.0960, Cad1.1000, Cad1.1075/80, Cad1.1155

EUR/CAF Chf1.2100, Chf1.2190, Chf1.2275

EUR/GBP stg0.8250

08:45

Foreign exchange market. Asian session: the New Zealand dollar was down against the U.S. dollar and has reached a three-and-a-half week low

Economic calendar (GMT0):

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey May 8.5 8.5 8.5

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y March +1.3% +1.4% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.7% +0.9% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I +2.7% +3.2% +3.1%

The U.S. dollar climbed against the most major currencies supported by Monday’s better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales. U.S. pending sales of existing homes climbed 3.4% in March from February. It is the first increase for the first time in nine months. Analysts forecasted the increase of 1.0%.

The New Zealand dollar was down against the U.S. dollar and has reached a three-and-a-half week low on Tuesday. The weaker-than-expected trade surplus and the better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales had a negative impact on the New Zealand’s currency. New Zealand's trade surplus increased to NZ$920 million in March. But the figure in February was revised down to NZ$793 million from NZ$818 million. The projected trade surplus was NZ$937 million.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar due to the fall in iron-ore prices and due to the better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales.

The Japanese yen declined against the most major currencies. The Japanese stock market was closed for a public holiday.

EUR/USD: the currency pair was up to $1.3865

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6815

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

NZD/USD: the currency pair has reached a three-and-a-half week low